Combat Boards road to $$$

[bkozican]

One pick...one pick that we all agree on and let's see how far we can go. Anybody has a tip and a reasonable explanation...That tip will be considered.
Doesn't matter about short priced favourites...the aim is to string as many bets as possible together. I'm guessing 10x $1.90 favs and there is a thousand bucks...for fun now but if we get up there...I'm placing these for real.

UFC Fight Night 95 Fight Card
Cris “Cyborg” Justino vs. Lina Lansberg
Renan Barao vs. Phillipe Nover
Roy Nelson vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Paul Felder
Godofredo Pepey vs. Mike De La Torre

Prelims
Gilbert Burns vs. Michel Prazeres
Rani Yahya vs. Michinori Tanaka
Jussier Formiga vs. Dustin Ortiz
Erick Silva vs. Luan Chagas

Prelims
Alan Patrick vs. Stevie Ray
Vicente Luque vs. Hector Urbina
Glaico Franca vs. Gregor Gillespie

 

[bkozican]

All short priced favs for this upcoming card.

R.Barao @1.25 is the only one half worth any return.

Anybody see a underdog winning...let me know in here

 

[BradWCE]

The last 3 fights look like mismatches.

Barao should be way too good for Nover. This is the sort of fight he needs to rebound in style. I don't see how Nover wins. Barao has the edge on the feet. Nover won't be able to get takedowns. Barao could take Nover down and that's where Barao is at his best.

I would be very shocked if Nelson doesn't KO Bigfoot. This fight makes me so sad. Although, in his last fight Nelson couldn't pull the trigger. Still, Bigfoot's been getting KO'd by the first clean shot that lands of late. Surely Nelson will hit him and that'll be it.

Cyborg/Lansberg is a bit tougher just because I've seen very little of Lansberg. I watched her fight below and that's it. It was a while ago, so she could have changed and improved since then. If not, she doesn't stand much of a shot imo. She has a muay thai background and you can see that in this fight. Her best offence on the feet is in the clinch or just outside the clinch with elbows. Delaney closes the distance easily a number of times. Cyborg is a lot faster than Delaney and is a much better pressure fighter. I expect Cyborg to close the distance and land big strikes. And she should be able to stay just outside the range that Lansberg wants. Cyborg likely finishes her at some stage, but even if she doesn't she should be able to win rounds on her way to a decision. All of this is assuming Lansberg is a similar fighter to the one she was back in 2014. She's had fights since. To be sure you know what you're going to get from her it'd be smart to watch her more recent fights.



I think this is what you wanted. Not 100% sure. If not let me know. I think Barao, Nelson and Justino are good picks to win.

 

[BradWCE]

Looks like you missed a fight - Thiago Santos vs Eric Spicely.

I haven't seen much of Spicely. Only his last fight against Alvey. I think he got hurt on the feet and then submitted. You'd think that Santos should hurt him on the feet (either with his brutal kicking game, or even with his hands) and finish him.

Silva/Chagas is interesting. Only Chagas fight I saw was his last one against Moraes. I can't remember it that well, but it was a draw. Silva is not that good unless he's fighting guys he can run through. I don't know the odds for this fight. Silva's probably the favourite because he's more known, but Chagas might be a good pick. Again, it'd be smart to check out more Chagas footage to be sure.

Thought I'd note this. I think I've bet twice on MMA. After the 2nd time I decided I'd only bet if I watched tape of the fighter's before betting. If you watch their recent fights it's a lot easier to pick a winner. I don't watch tape on fighters before they fight very often. So, I haven't bet on an MMA fight since.

 

[bkozican]

Great reply bradwce.
Going to start with Barao @1.24.

$50 @$1.24 = $62