Contested Possession Stat - Misleading?

[Champion_Data]

What I would like to see more of is the +/- applied to most stats, rather than the ranking based on the total number of CP's, clearances, tackles etc.

The +/- version of the stat also demonstrates how well a side is restricting their opposition, whereas a simple ranking does not.

Spot on. It is frustrating to see people using averages for team stats that are heavily reliant on game styles - differentials paint a much clearer picture. As an example, it has been mentioned in the media recently that Port Adelaide ranked last in contested possession in 2004 when in fact they were fourth in the competition based on differentials.

 

[SJ]

Spot on. It is frustrating to see people using averages for team stats that are heavily reliant on game styles - differentials paint a much clearer picture. As an example, it has been mentioned in the media recently that Port Adelaide ranked last in contested possession in 2004 when in fact they were fourth in the competition based on differentials.

I agree, but how do you expect them to do otherwise when differential numbers (for most statistics) are simply not publicly available?

 

[doppleganger]

Interesting article from Ted Hopkins about the overuse, misinterpretation of and overemphasis currently placed on 'contested possessions'

http://www.watoday.com.au/afl/afl-news/contested-possession-not-critical-hopkins-20120612-2089o.html

 

[Champion_Data]

I agree, but how do you expect them to do otherwise when differential numbers (for most statistics) are simply not publicly available?

All media clients have access to differentials - Herald Sun, The Age, AFL Media, radio & TV, etc.

 

[SJ]

All media clients have access to differentials - Herald Sun, The Age, AFL Media, radio & TV, etc.

Do they pay for the privilege?

 

[Champion_Data]

Do they pay for the privilege?

Their bosses do. It is part of company-level subscription packages.

 

[BEEG]

Most stats are misleading like effective kids the one the makes me wonder is the contested mark stat

How do they determine this if a player is right on somebody on a running lead and it's a mark is that contested

 

[Champion_Data]

Most stats are misleading like effective kids the one the makes me wonder is the contested mark stat

How do they determine this if a player is right on somebody on a running lead and it's a mark is that contested

Marks on Lead are recorded but are not included in Contested Mark numbers.

 

[BEEG]

Marks on Lead are recorded but are not included in Contested Mark numbers.

Why when the mark on the lead withsomeone pretty much on your ass can be tougher to do at times then a one on one marking contest

 

[IanW]

Of course everything needs to be put in context. A single stat is never going to give you all of the information you need, but it can definitely be a good starting point and can often be tied with a simple message (eg "winning the footy").

63/79 (79.7%) teams winning the contested possessions have won the game.

45/47 (95.7%) teams winning the contested possessions and having a better disposal efficiency have won the game.

This combination also applied with GWS knocking over Port.

GWS had 138 contested possessions and a 78% team disposal efficiency, while Port had 132 contested possessions and a 75% disposal efficiency.

 

[SJ]

I always think disposal efficiency should be split into at least kick and handball efficiency, never mind further splitting kicks into distance and position.