Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) 2020

[briztoon]

This is insane

"The restrictions were imposed in 31 provinces across the country and scaled up existing curbs, under which people under the age of 20 and over 65 have been told to stay at home."

Two-day lockdown imposed in much of Turkey, coronavirus death toll tops 1,000

Istanbul, Ankara and other major Turkish cities locked down for two days from midnight on Friday to combat the spread of the coronavirus under an Interior Ministry order, as the country's death toll from the pandemic rose above 1,000.

www.reuters.com

Its clearly been shown that most carriers of CV19 are between 20 and 60 due to their social proclivities, what a pointless exercise in seeming to do something when actually doing nothing.

I’m not sure you read it right.

From my reading, they already had in place something similar to our current social distancing requirements, with the added requirement of people under 20 and over 60 need to stay home.

Now for this weekend, everyone stays home, under a lockdown. Something like what Italy introduced, but for only 2 days.

 

[lioninthesand]

Now we appear to have this under control, which gives us time, what are peoples opinions on the next step?

IMO - we can't just suppress indefinitely, this just creates a holding pattern until a vaccine (12-24 months) and will absolutley destroy the economy and have wide ranging consequences felt for decades to come.

I am becoming more open to a model where we do a staged opening of society, with strict social distancing, and montor numbers closely - hoping we don't see a spike that over-runs hospitals. Protect and isolate those at risk, start getting back to business, undertake a rigerous test and tracing regiment and slowly increase the publics exposure to the virus.

At the moment hospitals are empty, nurses are stood down not doing elective surgury - a health professional I spoke to said they are in a 'war footing' but haven't seen a COVID-19 case.

We might just be prepared to start to take it on over the next 2-3 months.

Sweden is doing this and had 2 deaths yesterday.

We cant just lock it down until theres a vaccine, all we are doing is prolonging in the inevitable.

What are peoples thoughts on this? we need to start having a rational discussion about exit stratagy without people losing their minds when anyone wants to suggest anything other than LOCK DOWN!

The other emerging option is erradicate and keep borders sealed which now, according to the vice CMO is a possibility?

Whats next?

 

[Dalions]

Now we appear to have this under control, which gives us time, what are peoples opinions on the next step?

IMO - we can't just suppress indefinitely, this just creates a holding pattern until a vaccine (12-24 months) and will absolutley destroy the economy and have wide ranging consequences felt for decades to come.

I am becoming more open to a model where we do a staged opening of society, with strict social distancing, and montor numbers closely - hoping we don't see a spike that over-runs hospitals. Protect and isolate those at risk, start getting back to business, undertake a rigerous test and tracing regiment and slowly increase the publics exposure to the virus.

At the moment hospitals are empty, nurses are stood down not doing elective surgury - a health professional I spoke to said they are in a 'war footing' but haven't seen a COVID-19 case.

We might just be prepared to start to take it on over the next 2-3 months.

Sweden is doing this and had 2 deaths yesterday.

We cant just lock it down until theres a vaccine, all we are doing is prolonging in the inevitable.

What are peoples thoughts on this? we need to start having a rational discussion about exit stratagy without people losing their minds when anyone wants to suggest anything other than LOCK DOWN!

The other emerging option is erradicate and keep borders sealed which now, according to the vice CMO is a possibility?

Whats next?

Personally, I don’t see any relaxing of restrictions until we have 0 new daily cases for a period of time.
How long that time is, who knows?
1 week, 2 weeks of 0 new cases, a month?

 

[Gibbo_88]

Now we appear to have this under control, which gives us time, what are peoples opinions on the next step?

IMO - we can't just suppress indefinitely, this just creates a holding pattern until a vaccine (12-24 months) and will absolutley destroy the economy and have wide ranging consequences felt for decades to come.

I am becoming more open to a model where we do a staged opening of society, with strict social distancing, and montor numbers closely - hoping we don't see a spike that over-runs hospitals. Protect and isolate those at risk, start getting back to business, undertake a rigerous test and tracing regiment and slowly increase the publics exposure to the virus.

At the moment hospitals are empty, nurses are stood down not doing elective surgury - a health professional I spoke to said they are in a 'war footing' but haven't seen a COVID-19 case.

We might just be prepared to start to take it on over the next 2-3 months.

Sweden is doing this and had 2 deaths yesterday.

We cant just lock it down until theres a vaccine, all we are doing is prolonging in the inevitable.

What are peoples thoughts on this? we need to start having a rational discussion about exit stratagy without people losing their minds when anyone wants to suggest anything other than LOCK DOWN!

The other emerging option is erradicate and keep borders sealed which now, according to the vice CMO is a possibility?

Whats next?

I don't know where you've got the number from Sweden but you're misrepresenting the amount of deaths big time. There has been almost 500 deaths since the 8th of April and there is talk that they are going to have to change their approach because of the spike in numbers.

You are right about hospitals, there are empty wards or near empty wards and staff either taking leave or having 1-2 patients each. Elective surgeries will start up again in the next week or so.

I don't think there was much talk of locking down till there was a vaccine. It was always just getting through this first stage and then seeing where we're at.

 

[Section 5]

Interesting article on ventilators and how they work.
A small extract from article

"That’s speculation. But experts do say ventilators can be damaging to a patient over time, as high-pressure oxygen is forced into the tiny air sacs in a patient’s lungs.

“We know that mechanical ventilation is not benign,” said Dr. Eddy Fan, an expert on respiratory treatment at Toronto General Hospital. “One of the most important findings in the last few decades is that medical ventilation can worsen lung injury – so we have to be careful how we use it.”

The dangers can be eased by limiting the amount of pressure and the size of breaths delivered by the machine, Fan said.
But some doctors say they’re trying to keep patients off ventilators as long as possible, and turning to other techniques instead."

Why some doctors are moving away from ventilators for virus patients

As health officials around the world push to get more ventilators to treat coronavirus patients, some doctors are moving away from using the breathing machines when they can.

www.news.com.au

 

[MSB ROYS]

Now we appear to have this under control, which gives us time, what are peoples opinions on the next step?

IMO - we can't just suppress indefinitely, this just creates a holding pattern until a vaccine (12-24 months) and will absolutley destroy the economy and have wide ranging consequences felt for decades to come.

I am becoming more open to a model where we do a staged opening of society, with strict social distancing, and montor numbers closely - hoping we don't see a spike that over-runs hospitals. Protect and isolate those at risk, start getting back to business, undertake a rigerous test and tracing regiment and slowly increase the publics exposure to the virus.

At the moment hospitals are empty, nurses are stood down not doing elective surgury - a health professional I spoke to said they are in a 'war footing' but haven't seen a COVID-19 case.

We might just be prepared to start to take it on over the next 2-3 months.

Sweden is doing this and had 2 deaths yesterday.

We cant just lock it down until theres a vaccine, all we are doing is prolonging in the inevitable.

What are peoples thoughts on this? we need to start having a rational discussion about exit stratagy without people losing their minds when anyone wants to suggest anything other than LOCK DOWN!

The other emerging option is erradicate and keep borders sealed which now, according to the vice CMO is a possibility?

Whats next?

The biggest unknown is whether an effective vaccine can be developed. Although many teams around the world are developing different vaccines, many using orthogonal methods, we will only know after clinical testing is complete. An equally disastrous heath consequence would be give a vaccine to a large proportion of the population that does more harm than good (e.g. Dengvaxia - dengue vaccine issues in Philippines). As an optimistic person, I believe that we will produce at least one efficacious and safe vaccine but plans have to be in place in case it doesn't happen in this time-frame.

Our understanding of the virus and its epidemiology grows by the day, so IMO we need to hold fast to buy some time (maybe 1 month or so) to work out the best plan forward, as well bring down the number of infected as low as possible. In Australia, I think that WA and maybe parts of QLD will open in a stepped manner with social distancing. As long as we has enough ICU beds, this has to be the best way forward.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Warning: RANT.

Anybody watch 60 Minutes last night?

I am getting very uncomfortable with the rich elite implying that people are expendable. The tone of the reporting and questions in this program was constantly saying that people will have had enough, police state etc. They also showed a young WA man in car who had recovered saying that it wasn’t so bad. These people are slowly trying to condition people to the fact that the underprivileged, sick (physically and mentally) and elderly people will be ‘friendly fire’ and that’s OK. Continual subliminal messaging by big business through their media puppets. Of course, there were no counterpoint interviewees, which was disappointing but expected. This makes me sad and angry, and wondering where our society is headed. As in my previous post in this thread, let’s just hold fast and make sure we implement the best plan that we can, while continually reviewing its effectiveness.

The second story showed the disgraceful practice of selling Murray water to the highest bidders. As a long-time believer that our country needs to more self-sufficient in agriculture and other essential services, I hope that our Governments’ mindsets can be changed to incorporate a long-term vision that doesn’t totally rely on imports (people would also need to reset their attitudes and support these products). I was really hoping that the bushfires would act a reset for our climate policies and help push Australia towards the forefront of renewable energies and land management practices. Past behaviour suggests that this Federal Government, will just push on with their own business agenda with little concern for the environment and longer-term sustainability.

/RANT

 

[Section 5]

This report from Israel very interesting if true. From 9news.com
Nice to see military technology used for other reasons.

Israel converting military radar into COVID-19 detectors
By Richard Wood11:31
Military radar systems designed to defend Israel against terrorist attacks are being modified to detect coronavirus in human bodies.Two major defence contractors - Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Elbit Systems - are working with the defence department to refit sensitive sensors to screen patients for COVID 19, Jewish News Syndicate reports.

Israeli defence ministry officials announced the prototype technology can measure vital signs of patients, including pulse, respiratory rate and temperature, and detect patterns that indicate a likely COVID-19 infection.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Already distributed my week 1 lessons to student OneNotes.

*puts feet up*

 

[MSB ROYS]

Link for those interested in the vaccine development (Science perspective)

 

[Saucery]

I don't know where you've got the number from Sweden but you're misrepresenting the amount of deaths big time. There has been almost 500 deaths since the 8th of April and there is talk that they are going to have to change their approach because of the spike in numbers.

You are right about hospitals, there are empty wards or near empty wards and staff either taking leave or having 1-2 patients each. Elective surgeries will start up again in the next week or so.

I don't think there was much talk of locking down till there was a vaccine. It was always just getting through this first stage and then seeing where we're at.

I heard a medical type person saying that we have never been very successful with vaccines for upper respiratory viruses, though I haven't had a chance to check the veracity of that.

 

[Saucery]

I appears some of the lesser hit European nations are looking at loosening restrictions on those least as risk of mortality. It certainly will mean younger people will get those jobs they need, but what will be left when the older people are finally released?

“We have imposed strong social distancing, it works, and the healthcare system can manage the current workload, so we lift restrictions on the one group in society where data has clearly shown that there is extremely low risk involved,” Wejse said. “And we try to keep the virus away from those who will be most harmed. It is not the economy dictating where to open up; it’s the low admittance rate and case fatality rate among the youngest groups.”

Christian Wejse, a clinical researcher at the Department of Infectious Diseases at Aarhus University Hospital

Relief and anxiety as European nations get set to ease lockdowns

Small shops in Austria and primary schools in Denmark will open again after Easter as European commission seeks ‘roadmap towards exiting the pandemic’

www.theguardian.com

 

[SizeMatters]

recently changed roles in my Division at work... working on hardships in my sector. I'm actually gobsmacked at how the government and industry have responded. Many retailers implemented policies and support with no real intervention by the government. We are currently just trying to now coordinate a more streamlined and consistent SOE's across all levels of government and industry and across all jurisdictions.

This COVID-19 is changing the way we as a society will operate for generations.

 

[BangyBangy]

Now we appear to have this under control, which gives us time, what are peoples opinions on the next step?

IMO - we can't just suppress indefinitely, this just creates a holding pattern until a vaccine (12-24 months) and will absolutley destroy the economy and have wide ranging consequences felt for decades to come.

I am becoming more open to a model where we do a staged opening of society, with strict social distancing, and montor numbers closely - hoping we don't see a spike that over-runs hospitals. Protect and isolate those at risk, start getting back to business, undertake a rigerous test and tracing regiment and slowly increase the publics exposure to the virus.

At the moment hospitals are empty, nurses are stood down not doing elective surgury - a health professional I spoke to said they are in a 'war footing' but haven't seen a COVID-19 case.

We might just be prepared to start to take it on over the next 2-3 months.

Sweden is doing this and had 2 deaths yesterday.

We cant just lock it down until theres a vaccine, all we are doing is prolonging in the inevitable.

What are peoples thoughts on this? we need to start having a rational discussion about exit stratagy without people losing their minds when anyone wants to suggest anything other than LOCK DOWN!

The other emerging option is erradicate and keep borders sealed which now, according to the vice CMO is a possibility?

Whats next?

As a starting point I think the first goal will be to get through winter without maxing out the nations ICU capability. From where things sit currently I'd say we're on track to accomplish that, but I'd be hesitant to remove any of the existing restrictions until we're confident we can through winter without a unmanageable spike in hospitalization rate. I guess we'll know more in coming weeks when we get a bit more feedback from the expanded testing.

Where we are now is a hell of a lot different from where we were a month ago, and with every passing day we have more information & data to learn from. I still think it will just be a management strategy until there is a vaccine. I expect a rollback of restrictions will happen before a vaccine, but only if we're confident we know what the outcome of that will be.

Don't see eradication being possible to be honest.

 

[lioninthesand]

As a starting point I think the first goal will be to get through winter without maxing out the nations ICU capability. From where things sit currently I'd say we're on track to accomplish that, but I'd be hesitant to remove any of the existing restrictions until we're confident we can through winter without a unmanageable spike in hospitalization rate. I guess we'll know more in coming weeks when we get a bit more feedback from the expanded testing.

Where we are now is a hell of a lot different from where we were a month ago, and with every passing day we have more information & data to learn from. I still think it will just be a management strategy until there is a vaccine. I expect a rollback of restrictions will happen before a vaccine, but only if we're confident we know what the outcome of that will be.

Don't see eradication being possible to be honest.

Thanks for everyone for the responses, honestly the best place around for COVID-19 convos.

I agree with sentiments. I think we hold tight for 2-3 months as we are. Then look at easing restrictions - something like, Gyms, eaterys with under 50 people, congrations of 10 or less, families allowed to visit, schools open (over a period of weeks), maintaining social distancing test and contract, close monitoring with the view of making sure ICU's are not near capacity.

I think Andrews recent tough talk is actually because he knows the first easing of restrictions is coming (mid-late May) but wants everyone to take a more long-term view.

Either way, I don't like full lock-down or herd immunity - I think somewhere in the middle is where we will land.

I feel almost certain that we will not see a full stadium or international flights, in or out for 2020.

Oh and the Tassie outbreak (even though its small) will put a hold on things too. They will say "if it can happen there, it can hapoen anywhere".

 

[BangyBangy]

Thanks for everyone for the responses, honestly the best place around for COVID-19 convos.

I agree with sentiments. I think we hold tight for 2-3 months as we are. Then look at easing restrictions - something like, Gyms, eaterys with under 50 people, congrations of 10 or less, families allowed to visit, schools open (over a period of weeks), maintaining social distancing test and contract, close monitoring with the view of making sure ICU's are not near capacity.

I think Andrews recent tough talk is actually because he knows the first easing of restrictions is coming (mid-late May) but wants everyone to take a more long-term view.

Either way, I don't like full lock-down or herd immunity - I think somewhere in the middle is where we will land.

I feel almost certain that we will not see a full stadium or international flights, in or out for 2020.

Oh and the Tassie outbreak (even though its small) will put a hold on things too. They will say "if it can happen there, it can hapoen anywhere".

Herd immunity is one of the most bizarre (IMO) concepts to come out of this pandemic. To get it to happen quickly & everyone gets back to normal, you have to be prepared for tens of thousands to die, for it to happen slowly, well, a vaccine will become available before the bulk of the population get the virus, so it's not an option then either.

And yes, I can't see international borders opening until there is a vaccine, full stadiums, yeah probably not too. In that first week of footy that went ahead though, the afl should've sold 500 tickets for each game lol. Probably could've got $300 a ticket

 

[Hollow Knight]

The IPA should never be allowed to forget that they said “**** safety, economy first”.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Herd immunity is one of the most bizarre (IMO) concepts to come out of this pandemic. To get it to happen quickly & everyone gets back to normal, you have to be prepared for tens of thousands to die, for it to happen slowly, well, a vaccine will become available before the bulk of the population get the virus, so it's not an option then either.

And yes, I can't see international borders opening until there is a vaccine, full stadiums, yeah probably not too. In that first week of footy that went ahead though, the afl should've sold 500 tickets for each game lol. Probably could've got $300 a ticket

I don't think that's their strategy though - while a number of the vaccine groups seem increasingly confident they'll have a vaccine and sounding more and more likely it will be before the end of 2020 too, I think the government still has to work on the assumption that one won't be found seeing as it is still a chance of that being the case. It can't be their exit strategy, because it may not happen.

Also, Morrison said last week essentially that six months is the maximum timeframe for the economic stimulus packages - that they have a finite life and can't be extended beyond that.

Not really sure what all of that means for our way out though.

 

[lioninthesand]

Herd immunity is one of the most bizarre (IMO) concepts to come out of this pandemic. To get it to happen quickly & everyone gets back to normal, you have to be prepared for tens of thousands to die, for it to happen slowly, well, a vaccine will become available before the bulk of the population get the virus, so it's not an option then either.

And yes, I can't see international borders opening until there is a vaccine, full stadiums, yeah probably not too. In that first week of footy that went ahead though, the afl should've sold 500 tickets for each game lol. Probably could've got $300 a ticket

Herd immunity is actually the only way out apart from a vaccine. It just needs a new publicist LOL. To employ a stratagy of herd immunity we would see 1% of those infected die, thats 160k Ozzies. Not gonna happen. To drip feed exposure it would take 4-5 years.

We just gotta supress, test, manage spikes, close borders and wait for a vacco.

I have heard a couple of experts (one on 774 the other day) say it will just slowly down by itself by November I think he said.

These viruses have big peaks and long tails, we just need to manage the tail.


Who knows, but we are going to have to start getting real about our exit plan at some stage soon - mainly because if theres dwindling cases, low deaths and empty hospitals for another month, people will get ancy.

 

[lioninthesand]

I don't think that's their strategy though - while a number of the vaccine groups seem increasingly confident they'll have a vaccine and sounding more and more likely it will be before the end of 2020 too, I think the government still has to work on the assumption that one won't be found seeing as it is still a chance of that being the case. It can't be their exit strategy, because it may not happen.

Also, Morrison said last week essentially that six months is the maximum timeframe for the economic stimulus packages - that they have a finite life and can't be extended beyond that.

Not really sure what all of that means for our way out though.

Scomo would love to just fire it up ASAP I reckon.

 

[Gadzorks]

As a kid measles, mumps and chicken pox would sweep my little town, and when they did it was all people talked about. I remember people keeping kids and grand parents separate and the number of kids at school dropped for weeks. Shades of today.

The vaccines of the last ~30 years have really changed the playing field. We have worked and raised kids without having to manage these periods of people being sick, some of who were very sick. We have travelled the world freely after getting appropriate vaccines for the destination.

It really has been an amazing level of freedom so this shutdown is showing that while we might think we can do what we like when we like, we are still at the whim of biology.

It’s all very strange.

 

[lioninthesand]

As a kid measles, mumps and chicken pox would sweep my little town, and when they did it was all people talked about. I remember people keeping kids and grand parents separate and the number of kids at school dropped for weeks. Shades of today.

The vaccines of the last ~30 years have really changed the playing field. We have worked and raised kids without having to manage these periods of people being sick, some of who were very sick. We have travelled the world freely after getting appropriate vaccines for the destination.

It really has been an amazing level of freedom so this shutdown is showing that while we might think we can do what we like when we like, we are still at the whim of biology.

It’s all very strange.

It is. Pandemic threat will consume of psyche for 20 years + like 9-11 did. They predict that as there is more deforestation and more and more animal species die out - more and more viruses will jump to humans. Reason being obviously, a virus wants the best and most dominant host possible to incubate in and mutates as such. We have seen a real little cluster in the last 30 years and it will only get worse.

As sad as it is, some think the 100 year flu might become the 20 year flu as the human population grows and we continue to destroy other animal life.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

It is. Pandemic threat will consume of psyche for 20 years + like 9-11 did. They predict that as there is more deforestation and more and more animal species die out - more and more viruses will jump to humans. Reason being obviously, a virus wants the best and most dominant host possible to incubate in and mutates as such. We have seen a real little cluster in the last 30 years and it will only get worse.

As sad as it is, some think the 100 year flu might become the 20 year flu as the human population grows and we continue to destroy other animal life.

Yep, I think that does seem likely - although the good news is that I think it's almost certain they will be epidemics rather than pandemics for the next fifty years or so at least. Would think that all countries will overreact at anything that even has a hint of this about it in future. For example, if this exact same situation played out again, I daresay most countries would suspend international flights in January next time around.

Now that we all know this can happen and have experienced what it looks like and the impact it can have, it will only take a whisper of a new virus for everybody to take extreme measures. There will be hyper-vigilance on this going forward, because it will be so firmly embedded in the psyche of so many.

 

[lioninthesand]

Yep, I think that does seem likely - although the good news is that I think it's almost certain they will be epidemics rather than pandemics for the next fifty years or so at least. Would think that all countries will overreact at anything that even has a hint of this about it in future. For example, if this exact same situation played out again, I daresay most countries would suspend international flights in January next time around.

Now that we all know this can happen and have experienced what it looks like and the impact it can have, it will only take a whisper of a new virus for everybody to take extreme measures. There will be hyper-vigilance on this going forward, because it will be so firmly embedded in the psyche of so many.

Yep, I would also expect (and like to see) a medical reserve. So a bit like the army or CFA you can do basic training and then you can assist in a medical crises to take pressure of docs and nurses.

One thing thats clear to me is - during our 2 latest crisis, the army (which we spend billions on) has been rather useless. They have been used, but only to do token things here and there (this is no slight on the Army either, its just their traditional function).

The need for Army / military is built around humans and other nations being the threat, which has been true throughout human history, that is no longer the case.

We need to shift to a national response team with health and human safety / recovery at its forefront - because health and environmental are now CLEARLY humans greatest threat.

Imagine having 10000 health, environmental recovery experts (with some sort of mitary support) pour into towns after the bush fire to comfort, organise and support the towns?

We need to rethink how we do national responses to heath and environmental disarsters.

 

[briztoon]

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