News Coronavirus and the draft

[GUMBLETRON]

First step

Community football gets green light, training rules revealed

AFL Victoria is permitting community footballers to train in groups of 10 from Monday

www.afl.com.au

 

[Mego Red]

Thatd be a big dumb for the afl who only has 8 non post season teams

Unlike the NBA 30

Surely all teams should be in it? Just heavily waited

What? Did you just say there's only eight teams each year that don't play in the finals??

 

[Marcel Proust]

What? Did you just say there's only eight teams each year that don't play in the finals??

Yeah I forget gws, gc, sometimes. My bad

 

[Mego Red]

They bad but the have already being rewarded for being poor teams. To just redo the draft based on last seasons ladder seems an unsatisfactory idea.

Giving Richmond 0.01% of the lottery balls. Giants 0.05 etc. Really wouldn't be a big deal would it?

It's a extremely small chance of winning the lottery but it would make it interesting. You could still ensure suns gets a top5 pick. Blues gets a top7 pick, or whatever based on the NBA system.

Richmond are the champions; I don't want pick1 I like get Higgins. RCD type late first round but it would make the lottery more interesting if doggies or geeling had some change of a high pick

Doing it without the top4 teams. So the 5th team the lowest chance of winning might work too. But then blokes like you would complain if the eagles get pick1

No it doesn't. It would be absolute garbage if one of the top teams fluked a high draft pick, and it goes completely again the point of having a draft order.

 

[Marcel Proust]

No it doesn't. It would be absolute garbage if one of the top teams fluked a high draft pick, and it goes completely again the point of having a draft order.

But there is no draft order

Cause there is no football season
.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I said diminish, not eliminate.

I just reckon it's interesting arugably most the bottom 12-15 teams were actively tanking I the NBA

Easier with the rules that allow you to pay out a player and cut him

 

[briztoon]

They bad but the have already being rewarded for being poor teams. To just redo the draft based on last seasons ladder seems an unsatisfactory idea.

Giving Richmond 0.01% of the lottery balls. Giants 0.05 etc. Really wouldn't be a big deal would it?

It's a extremely small chance of winning the lottery but it would make it interesting. You could still ensure suns gets a top5 pick. Blues gets a top7 pick, or whatever based on the NBA system.

Richmond are the champions; I don't want pick1 I like get Higgins. RCD type late first round but it would make the lottery more interesting if doggies or geeling had some change of a high pick

Doing it without the top4 teams. So the 5th team the lowest chance of winning might work too. But then blokes like you would complain if the eagles get pick1

They’re not being rewarded.

I believe you’re missing the point entirely.

Yes they were poor last year, that’s why they didn’t make finals.

They’re still mostly poor again this year. Maybe a case can be made for Hawthorn improving. Maybe Melbourne too if they can get their act together.

That’s why these teams should be getting more help via the draft.

If I was to consider improved teams since last season and this, I’d probably move Hawks in to the top 8 and Essendon in to the bottom 10, and leave it at that.

Any notion of giving finals teams a chance of improving through the draft at the expense of non finals team ma is just plain ludicrous.

 

[briztoon]

I just reckon it's interesting arugably most the bottom 12-15 teams were actively tanking I the NBA

Easier with the rules that allow you to pay out a player and cut him

Seeing as the top 16 teams make the finals in the NBA, it’s ludicrous to suggest the teams in the 12 to 15 range are actively tanking.

Maybe the bottom 3 or 4 teams.

Being a long time 76’er fan, I know what tanking in the NBA looks like.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Pre-listing them prior to the draft.

What would be the driver/thought around going down this route? On the face of it it seems completely unfair and I can’t see any reason the AFL would, although great for the Dogs.

 

[briztoon]

What would be the driver/thought around going down this route? On the face of it it seems completely unfair and I can’t see any reason the AFL would, although great for the Dogs.

Twomey mentioned it in his article.

My guess is that if we have a shortened draft, and cut back lists, teams with highly rated players won’t have enough draft picks to have the points to be able to match early bids.

If the Bulldogs finish 8th, and JUH is bid on at pick 3, the Bulldogs face carrying over a -~600 point deficit on their 2021 first round pick.

Sydney will be in the same boat, or possibly worse effected.

Maybe the Bulldogs trade their first round pick to Gold Coast, for their two early second round picks.

Second round picks face being seriously devalued from being pushed back 5 or 6 spots.

Few teams will want to trade a future pick for a 2020 pick.

And a team like Port who only hold 3 late second round picks, probably won’t be able to package them to trade up, because almost no teams will have 3 vacant list spots to trade for 3 picks.

The other effect a shortened draft, and possibly no junior footy being played, is that it will significantly improve the 2021 draft.

Teams this year will go the safe picks, will base a lot of their assessment on the 2018 U16 championships.

We won’t see the late developers that always come on in their top age year.

If we look at previous drafts, but do not factor in improvement in their U18 year, Bontempeli is at best a second round selection, Clayton Oliver doesn’t get drafted, neither does Andrew McGrath, McCluggage and Taranto are at best second round selections. And I could go on and on for each draft.

Worpel would have been a first round pick. So would have Dylan Williams, Will Gould, Jeremy Sharp (2019), Oscar Clavarino and Connor Ballenden (2017) would have been first round picks.


Their will be many 19 year old late developers, as well as the top U18 kids, who are considered a stronger draft crop next year, making the top end of next years draft stronger, and depth probably well in to the second round.

This, combined with shorter lists, and fewer draft picks, will have a knock on effect of pushing more 19 year olds in to the 2022 draft, and it will just keep happening.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

But there is no draft order

Cause there is no football season
.

There will be somewhere they can get footy going. They might not get a full season but they'll get enough to have a draft order that would be correct enough

 

[perplexed]

Twomey mentioned it in his article.

My guess is that if we have a shortened draft, and cut back lists, teams with highly rated players won’t have enough draft picks to have the points to be able to match early bids.

If the Bulldogs finish 8th, and JUH is bid on at pick 3, the Bulldogs face carrying over a -~600 point deficit on their 2021 first round pick.

Sydney will be in the same boat, or possibly worse effected.

Maybe the Bulldogs trade their first round pick to Gold Coast, for their two early second round picks.

I'm not convinced that the shortened lists really makes much difference to bid matching and deficits. If teams with academy players have three live picks that should be more than enough to cover any bid. Or they can try and trade up to get inside a bid and go into deficit like GWS and Freo did last year. It is just that this year there will be more bids, and presumably more teams choosing to carry deficits into next year.

 

[briztoon]

I'm not convinced that the shortened lists really makes much difference to bid matching and deficits. If teams with academy players have three live picks that should be more than enough to cover any bid. Or they can try and trade up to get inside a bid and go into deficit like GWS and Freo did last year. It is just that this year there will be more bids, and presumably more teams choosing to carry deficits into next year.

As I was referring to Cal Twomey’s article, I’ll just deal with the specifics mentioned in there.

If it is just a 2 round draft, many teams won’t have 3 picks in the draft.

And Twomey is suggesting all teams have two picks, and teams with nga or fs kids get to prelist outside the draft.

The Bulldogs have a first round pick, and then a third round pick, which they lose because it’s only a two round draft.

Saints have a first round pick, then nothing until a fourth round pick.

Melbourne, West Coast and GWS only have a single second round pick, and then later picks.


As for trading picks, think about future drafts and shortened lists.

We’re not going to see 5 round drafts any more.

Future third round picks will be about as valuable as what a mid fifth round or sixth round pick was.

The value of future picks increases significantly now, especially first round picks.

Teams would have had plans two years ahead in terms of trading in and out future picks.

All that goes out the window now, and teams start all over again.


It’s another scenario where teams lose out regardless of the AFL’s decision.

Teams like the Bulldogs, Collingwood and Sydney will get a high end talent for free, and still have another first round pick to use.


This year we might be better off going back to the old bidding and matching system, where before the draft, opposition teams would say where they would bid on an academy or father son kid, and the parent team matched with their next pick.

The Bulldogs could trade their first round pick to Port, for two of Ports second round picks. Match the bid on JUH with the first pick, and use the later pick to draft another kid.


Then the AFL can work out a new points system for the 2021 draft.

 

[perplexed]

Sounds a crazy solution to a problem created by a crazy idea. So there's a good chance the afl will do it.
If you are going to trash a season, you might as well do a thorough job of it.

 

[Mego Red]

But there is no draft order

Cause there is no football season
.

So there is absolutely no data to suggest what clubs are rebuilding and in need of picks to become competitive, and what clubs have already stocked up with mature players and are right in their premiership window?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

As I was referring to Cal Twomey’s article, I’ll just deal with the specifics mentioned in there.

If it is just a 2 round draft, many teams won’t have 3 picks in the draft.

And Twomey is suggesting all teams have two picks, and teams with nga or fs kids get to prelist outside the draft.

The Bulldogs have a first round pick, and then a third round pick, which they lose because it’s only a two round draft.

The simple answer is a "two-round draft" doesn't mean only two rounds of picks, it just means a minimum two selections per club rather than three, and if you think you'll need more live picks to match bids then you have to activate more live picks or accept a deficit.

 

[briztoon]

The simple answer is a "two-round draft" doesn't mean only two rounds of picks, it just means a minimum two selections per club rather than three, and if you think you'll need more live picks to match bids then you have to activate more live picks or accept a deficit.

This is going hand in hand with a list reduction to 35 players.

So if teams like the Bulldogs, Sydney and Collingwood need to delist extra players to have extra picks and the points to match bids, you would hope they have the option to redraft their own players they had to delist that they would have preferred to keep.

The Bulldogs and Sydney would have planned a year out to match bids with extra picks, with a list of 40 players to find the picks needed.

Port stocked up on second round picks, probably hoping to bundle a couple up, to then trade back in to the first round, and then use a remaining late second round pick to match a bid on Taj Schofield.

Teams that planned for specific scenarios are now at a disadvantage not of their making. And the knock on effect may negatively impact the future draft, which really isn’t fair or acceptable.

So there are some possible solutions, that while not perfect, can limit the impact on this draft, and more importantly the future draft.

 

[Marcel Proust]

So there is absolutely no data to suggest what clubs are rebuilding and in need of picks to become competitive, and what clubs have already stocked up with mature players and are right in their premiership window?

are EFC a rebuilding or competitive team? they made the finals - have not won in a final in 6000 odd days

CFC have 100s of high draft picks and the PR machine continues to say they are "on the rise" and a powerhouse shortly - yet still a bottom 4 team in reality as of the last afl season

if you were to ask the question about brisbane at the start of season you would say they are rebuilding but the almost won the minor premiership and almost made a pre-lim

you could argue some teams are going to fall off the end of the cliff soon (geelong?) and will be set back by simply redoing the previous draft order

you make valid points but its a double edged sword. The low teams were already rewarded for their poor season via draft. If you let them double dip without a football season the mid range teams will be aggravated. A weighted lottery or double draft the next year would at least add some mystic to a sad time

 

[briztoon]

are EFC a rebuilding or competitive team? they made the finals - have not won in a final in 6000 odd days

CFC have 100s of high draft picks and the PR machine continues to say they are "on the rise" and a powerhouse shortly - yet still a bottom 4 team in reality as of the last afl season

if you were to ask the question about brisbane at the start of season you would say they are rebuilding but the almost won the minor premiership and almost made a pre-lim

you could argue some teams are going to fall off the end of the cliff soon (geelong?) and will be set back by simply redoing the previous draft order

you make valid points but its a double edged sword. The low teams were already rewarded for their poor season via draft. If you let them double dip without a football season the mid range teams will be aggravated. A weighted lottery or double draft the next year would at least add some mystic to a sad time

So you’re solution is to disadvantage the low teams because we haven’t been able to play a regular season.

Mid range teams get mid range picks. Low teams get high picks. Good teams get low picks.

That’s how equalisation via the draft works.

A lottery doesn’t solve the issue about how we might know which teams improved, or are worse.

As has been mentioned already, how do you apply a weighting or percentage to each team without a season being played. Answer this question adequately, then we can discuss the fairness of a lottery.

 

[andleanback]

are EFC a rebuilding or competitive team? they made the finals - have not won in a final in 6000 odd days

CFC have 100s of high draft picks and the PR machine continues to say they are "on the rise" and a powerhouse shortly - yet still a bottom 4 team in reality as of the last afl season

if you were to ask the question about brisbane at the start of season you would say they are rebuilding but the almost won the minor premiership and almost made a pre-lim

you could argue some teams are going to fall off the end of the cliff soon (geelong?) and will be set back by simply redoing the previous draft order

you make valid points but its a double edged sword. The low teams were already rewarded for their poor season via draft. If you let them double dip without a football season the mid range teams will be aggravated. A weighted lottery or double draft the next year would at least add some mystic to a sad time

Scratch all talk about a draft lottery, will never happen in the AFL. If there’s no afl season, then there’ll be no draft, picks acquired through trade will roll over to the 2021 draft.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Scratch all talk about a draft lottery, will never happen in the AFL. If there’s no afl season, then there’ll be no draft, picks acquired through trade will roll over to the 2021 draft.

If there is no draft. What happens to this year's pool of players?

 

[Homer Jay Simpson]

Can we just make all this years players available next year and bump the draft age up a year? If no footy is played this year, basically 2020 doesnt exist and every age group moves down a year. Maybe the NAB league and other states have an u/19 instead of u/18 moving forward

 

[andleanback]

If there is no draft. What happens to this year's pool of players?

They’ll most likely raise the draft age if no AFL or underage football is played this season. But that’s highly unlikely with the nab league able to play in November with a lot of their grounds non cricket. Also we don’t know how bad the pandemic is going to be in Australia, at the moment our rate of growth has been trending down for the past 10 days( down to 1.6% today) which is unlike most other countries in the world. 2 weeks ago the government were predicting doomsday in the coming weeks and we are now trending against that, who knows what will happen in the weeks to come.

 

[Marcel Proust]

So you’re solution is to disadvantage the low teams because we haven’t been able to play a regular season.

Mid range teams get mid range picks. Low teams get high picks. Good teams get low picks.

That’s how equalisation the draft works.

A lottery doesn’t solve the issue about how we might know which teams improved, or are worse.

As has been mentioned already, how do you apply a weighting or percentage to each team without a season being played. Answer this question adequately, then we can discuss the fairness of a lottery.

You'd probably weigh it so the bottom teams last season. Or the last 3 on average are rewarded with the better odds.

It's not perfect but your idea completely overlooks there is no football season and is too flawed imo

To just redo last seasons order is a lazy solution and too big a bonus

Your team would benefit and so they should it's unknown where the Lions would finish. They could be great or fall over

 

[briztoon]

You'd probably weigh it so the bottom teams last season. Or the last 3 on average are rewarded with the better odds.

It's not perfect but your idea completely overlooks there is no football season and is too flawed imo

To just redo last seasons order is a lazy solution and too big a bonus

Your team would benefit and so they should it's unknown where the Lions would finish. They could be great or fall over

Every idea is flawed.

Last 3 years Brisbane finished 17th, 18th and 4th. That averages out as pick 6. Of course I’m on board with that, but it’s not fair to most teams.


I’m not overlooking that there’s no football this season in such a discussion.

I’ve specifically said we have no other reasonable metric by which to rank teams.

A lottery based on last years ladder, or an aggregate of the previous 3 seasons is not reasonable.

All it does is introduce an element of randomness, and the potential to reward better teams that don’t deserve it, and penalise poorer teams.

 

[Smythe]

What im seeing happening, due to contract situations, is that this year if a draft goes ahead each team will be allowed to have 2 picks, more if they need (considering nga and f/s), also lists will drop, BUT, over time to help deal with contract situations. example, teams may be told that this year lists will have to be cut back to 40, (so teams that go 2 picks in draft will have a minimum of 6/7 cut from their list) next year it will be 38 max and lists must be 35 thereafter. no cat b or rookie lists to exist after that and supplementary additions to be made at any time upon application to the league (due to long term injured or mid season retirements etc) with a huge possibility it will be on a waiver system with reverse ladder in place, available to be picked from anywhere, any league, any team. teams at state level SANFL, VFL, WAFL for example will not be bothered to much as it will even out as the players currently at afl level being cut from lists will flow down into these leagues making every team stronger anyway so a loss here and there (and not very often either) by players being called up as a supp list selection to an afl team will not hurt them as much as it would have in the past.