Buttsoup_Barnes
Team Captain
- Joined
- Feb 2, 2014
- Posts
- 529
- Reaction score
- 417
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Arsenal, Miami Heat
WARNING: If you have too much time on your hands, please continue reading.
Does the top 8 position of a round 1 team winner guarantee their spot in it, regardless of where it is? Or do teams that lose round 1 still have enough to climb back up and take the premiership?
I chose the time period of 2008-present because during this current time the averages seem to be maintained. For example, an average of 3 clubs from this current time period tend to climb back into the top 8, despite not winning the first round.*
As some may know, The Inquirer already jumped on this bandwagon and did it better by expanding to 1999-2013. It stole my thunder pretty well, but this will be still be posted anyway. If anybody wants to see what The Inquirer did, go here: http://i.imgur.com/xhRktDk.jpg
This huge list below will have three categories that certain top 8 teams will go to; maintainers, improvers, and drop outs.
MAINTAINERS are teams that have a spot in the top 8 after winning the first round^ and stay there, despite change in their position in the top 8.
IMPROVERS are teams that lose their first round but eventually get into the top 8, taking the place of teams that are considered drop outs. Usually are A/B grade teams that bide their time with winning and losing, or surprise the league by entering the top 8 late into the season with dominating winning streaks.
DROP OUTS are teams that win their first round but trail off the top 8 and into the oblivion that is mediocrity and failure. Usually are C/D grade teams that achieve a lucky win.
Before 2008, teams that were in the top 8 at the beginning of the season to the finish were quite varied, so the 2008-present model was used since and so far it hasn't been broken. Could it be broken this year perhaps?
Now for the statistics!
*average may be impacted by 2013 saga, as you will see below.
^ due to increase of teams in 2012, teams positioned in 9th will not be counted as maintainers despite winning their first round, due to lower percentage. They will be regarded as improvers if they move into the top 8.
2008
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. Footscray
4. St Kilda
5. Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. North Melbourne
8. Collingwood
------------------------
9. Richmond
10. Brisbane
11. Carlton
12. Essendon
13. Port Adelaide
14. Fremantle
15. West Coast
16. Melbourne
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
KEY:
(team) (round 1 position)/(all rounds position)
gee 6/1
haw 1/2 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
wbd 8/3
stk 7/4
col 4/8
Total: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ade 9/5
syd 10/6
nth 15/7
Total: 3
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
ess 2/12
ric 3/9
wce 5/15
Total: 3
2009
ALL ROUNDS:
1. St Kilda
2. Geelong
3. Footscray
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Brisbane
7. Carlton
8. Essendon
---------------------
9. Hawthorn
10. Port Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Sydney
13. North Melbourne
14. Fremantle
15. Richmond
16. Melbourne
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
car 1/7
wbd 2/3
stk 5/1
bri 6/6
gee 7/2 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
ade 8/5
Total: 6
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ess 14/8
col 9/4
Total: 2
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
nth 4/13
pta 3/10
Total: 2
2010
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. St Kilda
4. Footscray
5. Sydney
6. Fremantle
7. Hawthorn
8. Carlton
-------------------
9. North Melbourne
10. Port Adelaide
11. Adelaide
12. Melbourne
13. Brisbane
14. Essendon
15. Richmond
16. West Coast
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
haw 1/7
fre 2/6
car 3/8
col 5/1 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
gee 6/2
stk 8/3
Total: 6
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
wbd 12/4
syd 9/5
Total: 2
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
bri 4/13
pta 7/10
Total: 2
2011 ***EXTRA TEAM***
NOTE: During crappy bye rounds, Gold Coast didn't play this round, but still became spooners regardless.
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. West Coast
5. Carlton
6. St Kilda
7. Sydney
8. Essendon
-------------------
9. North Melbourne
10. Footscray
11. Fremantle
12. Richmond
13. Melbourne
14. Adelaide
15. Brisbane
16. Port Adelaide
17. Gold Coast
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
ess 1/8
col 2/1
car 3/5
wce 5/4
gee 7/2 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
Total: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
stk 10/6
haw 13/3
syd 9/7
Total: 3
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
mel 8/13
ade 4/14
Total: 2
2012 ***EXTRA TEAM***
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Hawthorn
2. Adelaide
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. West Coast
6. Geelong
7. Fremantle
8. North Melbourne
--------------------
9. St Kilda
10. Carlton
11. Essendon
12. Richmond
13. Brisbane
14. Port Adelaide
15. Footscray
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
haw 6/1
syd 1/3 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
ade 2/2
wce 3/5
fre 8/7
TOTAL: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
gee 11/6
nth 10/8
col 13/4
Total: 3
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
car 4/10
bri 5/13
pta 7/14
Total: 3
2013
ALL ROUNDS:
NOTE: Due to corrupt reasoning, there are two ladders.
1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Fremantle
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Port Adelaide
8. Carlton*
---------------------
9. Essendon
10. North Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Brisbane
13. West Coast
14. Gold Coast
15. Footscray
16. St Kilda
17. Melbourne
18. GWS
What the real ladder should be statistically:
1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Fremantle
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Port Adelaide
---------------------
9. Carlton
10. North Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Brisbane
13. West Coast
14. Gold Coast
15. Footscray
16. St Kilda
17. Melbourne
18. GWS
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
pta 1/8 *7*
syd 4/4
fre 5/3
col 6/6
gee 8/2
(ess 3/7 *9*)
If you count Essendon: 6
If you don't count them: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ric 9/5
haw 11/1 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
(car 10/9 *8*)
If you count Carlton: 3
If you don't count them: 2
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
wbd 2/15
gcs 7/14
(ess 3/*9*)
If you count Essendon: 3
If you don't count them: 2
2014
OPENING ROUND:
1. Fremantle
2. West Coast Eagles
3. Essendon
4. Hawthorn
5. GWS Giants
6. Geelong
7. Port Adelaide
8. St.Kilda
-------------------
9. Gold Coast Suns
10. Richmond
11. Melbourne
12. Carlton
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney Swans
15. Brisbane Lions
16. North Melbourne
17. Western Bulldogs
18. Collingwood
***PREDICTION TIME?***
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
fre 1/2
ess 3/5 (might not be achieved)
haw 3/3
gee 6/4
Total: 4
Will probably be by average: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ric 10/6
syd 14/1 (might be complimenting them too much)
nth 16/8
col 18/7
Total: 4
Will probably be by average: 3
Usually improvers don't go over 3 so North/Collingwood might be unlucky.
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
stk 8/18
wce 2/13 (probably won't happen)
gws 5/17 (might not be this low this time around)
pta 7/11 (they can proven doubters wrong before though)
Total: 4
Will probably be by average: 2
Most likely West Coast stays in the top 8 of the ladder.
RANDOM STATISTICS (pulling things out of my butt here):
Opening round positions for premiers since 2001:
12 - bri
4 - bri
2 - bri
1 - pta
1 - syd
7 - wce
13 - gee
1 - haw
7 - gee
5 - col
7 - gee
1 - syd
11 - haw
Common numbers:
2004, 2005, 2008, 2012
For 1st place
Since 2001, first place is currently the highest position with the best chance of winning a premiership. Could Fremantle be onto the cusp of greatness? Or will the Lyon curse persist?
2006, 2009, 2011
For 7th place
Geelong were usually the holders of this position, the first being West Coast. Now Port Adelaide has it, but it would be extremely far fetched for them to win a premiership now. They are proper finalists though at their best.
2001, 2007, 2013
For numbers ranging from 11-13th place
Well there's Melbourne, Carlton and Adelaide in there now. The first two sound laughable, but Adelaide almost won a prelim two years ago. Not sure if the depth will take them that far this year due to injuries again.
2002, 2003, 2010
For numbers ranging from 2-5th place
Sounds like a reasonable place to be for teams looking to burst out of the gates. West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn and GWS currently hold those places in order for the first round.
West Coast have been touted as premiership favourites in the past, only to come crashing down into mediocrity due to injuries. They were in a prelim three ago. Could this be their year? The Western powers show promise indeed.
Essendon being the wildcard, despite possessing a list that on their heyday could beat almost any team, has not won a final for ten years! Without the reliability of teams like Collingwood and Sydney, Essendon has to start somewhere. Winning a final is the expectation, prelim is the dream. Grand Final win/appearance is Total Recall.
Hawthorn being the usual finals suspects would do well with this statistic. Although, the last time a team went back to back was Brisbane in 2002-2003. Ever since, teams such as Sydney (2005-2006), Geelong (2007-2008), and Collingwood (2010-2011) were unable to complete said task. Could Hawthorn be the team that has the determination to do so?
As for GWS, just no. Too early for such feats.
Speaking of 2nd to 5th...
2-5th from 2001-2013
KEY:
2nd - (final place at end of season)
3rd - (final place at end of season)
4th - (final place at end of season)
5th - (final place at end of season)
2001
gee - 12th
syd - elim
ric - prelim
por - semi
2002
stk - 15th
ric - 14th
bri - premiers
mel - semi
2003
bri - premiers
wce - elim
ade - semi
wbd - 16th (last)
2004
nth - 10th
stk - prelim
fre - 9th
ric - 16th (last)
2005
mel - elim
fre - 10th
gee - semi
wbd - 9th
2006
gee - 10th
nth - 14th
ade - prelim
ess - 15th
2007 (this was a weird year)
stk - 9th
ess - 12th
wbd - 13th
car - 15th
2008
ess - 12th
ric - 9th
col - semi
wce - 15th
2009
wbd - prelim
pta - 10th
nth - 13th
stk - runner up
2010
fre - semi
car - elim
bri - 13th
col - premiers
2011
col - runner up
car - semi
ade - 14th
wce - prelim
2012
ade - prelim
wce - semi
car - 10th
bri - 13th
2013
wbd - 15th
ess - *7th or 9th*
syd - prelim
fre - runner up
FINAL PLACES FOR FIRST ROUND TEAMS IN 2ND, 3RD, 4TH, AND 5TH (2001-PRESENT)
2nd
12th, 15th, premiers, 10th, elim, 10th, 9th, 12th, prelim, semi, runner up, prelim, 15th
3rd
elim, 14th, elim, prelim, 10th, 14th, 12th, 9th, 10th, elim, semi, semi, *7th or 9th*
4th
prelim, premiers, semi, 9th, semi, prelim, 13th, semi, 13th, 13th, 14th, 10th, prelim
5th
semi, semi, last, last, 9th, 15th, 15th, 15th, runner up, premiers, prelim, 13th, runner up
THROUGH TIME (2001-present)
Highest a team can go
2 - premiers, elim, prelim, semi, runner up, prelim (6)
3 - elim, elim, prelim, elim, semi, semi (6)
4 - prelim, premiers, semi, semi, prelim, semi, prelim (7)
5 - semi, semi, runner up, premiers, prelim, runner up (6)
Lowest a team can go
2 - 12th, 15th, 10th, 10th, 9th, 12th, 15th (7)
3 - 14th, 10th, 14th, 12th, 9th, 10th, *7th or 9th* (7)
4 - 9th, 13th, 13th, 13th, 14th, 10th (6)
5 - last, last, 9th, 15th, 15th, 15th, 13th (7)
FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST IN POTENTIAL FOR POSITION
When having finals opportunities
2 - elim, semi, prelim, prelim, runner up ,premiers
3 - elim, elim, elim, semi, semi, prelim
4 - semi, semi, semi, prelim, prelim, prelim, premiers
5 - semi, semi, prelim, runner up, runner up, premiers
When not having finals opportunities
2 - 15th, 15th, 12th, 12th, 10th, 10th, 9th
3 - 14th, 14th, 12th, 10th, 10th, 9th, 9th or 7th
4 - 14th, 13th, 13th, 13th, 10th, 9th
5 - last, last, 15th, 15th, 15th, 13th, 9th
RANKING OF CHANCE FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST
4th:
Highest point of failure for a team listed here in the first round if striving to be a finalist would be the semis. While there are no records of being a runner up in this time period, there are plenty of semis and prelims to show off, along with the chance of a premiership. Hawthorn are ranked here, and it sure does make sense for them to be there according to the statistics.
2nd:
Highest point of failure for a team listed here in the first round is the elimination finals, but has the second highest recordings of prelims since 2001. Along with the chance of a premiership, West Coast are in a decent position if they want to aim high.
3rd:
Highest point of failure for a team listed here in the first round is also the elimination finals. There are no records since 2001 that show a team in this position winning the premiership, except for second, fourth, and fifth position. This position also has the least fallback with near the 9th area if this team were to fall into mediocrity. Sounds like it fits Essendon perfectly.
5th
While this position has an impressive resume in terms of highest success, with semis being the least of expectation to having 3 chances at the cup, with one of them being a success, there are gaping holes too. This position also boasts the hardest fallback with two last places, and three 15th places. Due to the team in this position now being GWS, this position is an accurate fit.
For Essendon from 2008-2013:
1 or 2 times they have maintained spot in top 8
1 or 2 times they have dropped out of the top 8
1 time they have improved to get to top 8
2 times not sighted in top 8 from start of season and end
Whatever views of last year's debacle, regarding ladder wise, Essendon still remain a wildcard in terms of whether they will maintain themselves in the top 8 or not.
Seeing as how this season so far for round 1 they have won, unless further muck ups occur, it could go either way. At least Essendon has been sighted in the top 8 for round 1 and could have the opportunity to maintain their spot in the top 8, wherever that may be.
Like The Inquirer said, teams that have lost the opening round can still obtain the premiership, but they have a 37.5% chance of that happening. As for teams that do win their opening round, they have a more comfortable 62.5% chance of holding the cup (percentages from 1990-present).
It will be interesting to see which team can stay to statistics, or defy them for winning the premiership. Hopefully that team can be ours soon.
Does the top 8 position of a round 1 team winner guarantee their spot in it, regardless of where it is? Or do teams that lose round 1 still have enough to climb back up and take the premiership?
I chose the time period of 2008-present because during this current time the averages seem to be maintained. For example, an average of 3 clubs from this current time period tend to climb back into the top 8, despite not winning the first round.*
As some may know, The Inquirer already jumped on this bandwagon and did it better by expanding to 1999-2013. It stole my thunder pretty well, but this will be still be posted anyway. If anybody wants to see what The Inquirer did, go here: http://i.imgur.com/xhRktDk.jpg
This huge list below will have three categories that certain top 8 teams will go to; maintainers, improvers, and drop outs.
MAINTAINERS are teams that have a spot in the top 8 after winning the first round^ and stay there, despite change in their position in the top 8.
IMPROVERS are teams that lose their first round but eventually get into the top 8, taking the place of teams that are considered drop outs. Usually are A/B grade teams that bide their time with winning and losing, or surprise the league by entering the top 8 late into the season with dominating winning streaks.
DROP OUTS are teams that win their first round but trail off the top 8 and into the oblivion that is mediocrity and failure. Usually are C/D grade teams that achieve a lucky win.
Before 2008, teams that were in the top 8 at the beginning of the season to the finish were quite varied, so the 2008-present model was used since and so far it hasn't been broken. Could it be broken this year perhaps?
Now for the statistics!
*average may be impacted by 2013 saga, as you will see below.
^ due to increase of teams in 2012, teams positioned in 9th will not be counted as maintainers despite winning their first round, due to lower percentage. They will be regarded as improvers if they move into the top 8.
2008
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. Footscray
4. St Kilda
5. Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. North Melbourne
8. Collingwood
------------------------
9. Richmond
10. Brisbane
11. Carlton
12. Essendon
13. Port Adelaide
14. Fremantle
15. West Coast
16. Melbourne
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
KEY:
(team) (round 1 position)/(all rounds position)
gee 6/1
haw 1/2 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
wbd 8/3
stk 7/4
col 4/8
Total: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ade 9/5
syd 10/6
nth 15/7
Total: 3
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
ess 2/12
ric 3/9
wce 5/15
Total: 3
2009
ALL ROUNDS:
1. St Kilda
2. Geelong
3. Footscray
4. Collingwood
5. Adelaide
6. Brisbane
7. Carlton
8. Essendon
---------------------
9. Hawthorn
10. Port Adelaide
11. West Coast
12. Sydney
13. North Melbourne
14. Fremantle
15. Richmond
16. Melbourne
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
car 1/7
wbd 2/3
stk 5/1
bri 6/6
gee 7/2 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
ade 8/5
Total: 6
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ess 14/8
col 9/4
Total: 2
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
nth 4/13
pta 3/10
Total: 2
2010
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. St Kilda
4. Footscray
5. Sydney
6. Fremantle
7. Hawthorn
8. Carlton
-------------------
9. North Melbourne
10. Port Adelaide
11. Adelaide
12. Melbourne
13. Brisbane
14. Essendon
15. Richmond
16. West Coast
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
haw 1/7
fre 2/6
car 3/8
col 5/1 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
gee 6/2
stk 8/3
Total: 6
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
wbd 12/4
syd 9/5
Total: 2
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
bri 4/13
pta 7/10
Total: 2
2011 ***EXTRA TEAM***
NOTE: During crappy bye rounds, Gold Coast didn't play this round, but still became spooners regardless.
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. West Coast
5. Carlton
6. St Kilda
7. Sydney
8. Essendon
-------------------
9. North Melbourne
10. Footscray
11. Fremantle
12. Richmond
13. Melbourne
14. Adelaide
15. Brisbane
16. Port Adelaide
17. Gold Coast
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
ess 1/8
col 2/1
car 3/5
wce 5/4
gee 7/2 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
Total: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
stk 10/6
haw 13/3
syd 9/7
Total: 3
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
mel 8/13
ade 4/14
Total: 2
2012 ***EXTRA TEAM***
ALL ROUNDS:
1. Hawthorn
2. Adelaide
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. West Coast
6. Geelong
7. Fremantle
8. North Melbourne
--------------------
9. St Kilda
10. Carlton
11. Essendon
12. Richmond
13. Brisbane
14. Port Adelaide
15. Footscray
16. Melbourne
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
haw 6/1
syd 1/3 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
ade 2/2
wce 3/5
fre 8/7
TOTAL: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
gee 11/6
nth 10/8
col 13/4
Total: 3
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
car 4/10
bri 5/13
pta 7/14
Total: 3
2013
ALL ROUNDS:
NOTE: Due to corrupt reasoning, there are two ladders.
1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Fremantle
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Port Adelaide
8. Carlton*
---------------------
9. Essendon
10. North Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Brisbane
13. West Coast
14. Gold Coast
15. Footscray
16. St Kilda
17. Melbourne
18. GWS
What the real ladder should be statistically:
1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Fremantle
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Collingwood
7. Essendon
8. Port Adelaide
---------------------
9. Carlton
10. North Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Brisbane
13. West Coast
14. Gold Coast
15. Footscray
16. St Kilda
17. Melbourne
18. GWS
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
pta 1/8 *7*
syd 4/4
fre 5/3
col 6/6
gee 8/2
(ess 3/7 *9*)
If you count Essendon: 6
If you don't count them: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ric 9/5
haw 11/1 WINNERS OF PREMIERSHIP
(car 10/9 *8*)
If you count Carlton: 3
If you don't count them: 2
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
wbd 2/15
gcs 7/14
(ess 3/*9*)
If you count Essendon: 3
If you don't count them: 2
2014
OPENING ROUND:
1. Fremantle
2. West Coast Eagles
3. Essendon
4. Hawthorn
5. GWS Giants
6. Geelong
7. Port Adelaide
8. St.Kilda
-------------------
9. Gold Coast Suns
10. Richmond
11. Melbourne
12. Carlton
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney Swans
15. Brisbane Lions
16. North Melbourne
17. Western Bulldogs
18. Collingwood
***PREDICTION TIME?***
ROUND 1 MAINTAINERS:
fre 1/2
ess 3/5 (might not be achieved)
haw 3/3
gee 6/4
Total: 4
Will probably be by average: 5
ROUND 1 IMPROVERS:
ric 10/6
syd 14/1 (might be complimenting them too much)
nth 16/8
col 18/7
Total: 4
Will probably be by average: 3
Usually improvers don't go over 3 so North/Collingwood might be unlucky.
ROUND 1 DROP OUTS:
stk 8/18
wce 2/13 (probably won't happen)
gws 5/17 (might not be this low this time around)
pta 7/11 (they can proven doubters wrong before though)
Total: 4
Will probably be by average: 2
Most likely West Coast stays in the top 8 of the ladder.
RANDOM STATISTICS (pulling things out of my butt here):
Opening round positions for premiers since 2001:
12 - bri
4 - bri
2 - bri
1 - pta
1 - syd
7 - wce
13 - gee
1 - haw
7 - gee
5 - col
7 - gee
1 - syd
11 - haw
Common numbers:
2004, 2005, 2008, 2012
For 1st place
Since 2001, first place is currently the highest position with the best chance of winning a premiership. Could Fremantle be onto the cusp of greatness? Or will the Lyon curse persist?
2006, 2009, 2011
For 7th place
Geelong were usually the holders of this position, the first being West Coast. Now Port Adelaide has it, but it would be extremely far fetched for them to win a premiership now. They are proper finalists though at their best.
2001, 2007, 2013
For numbers ranging from 11-13th place
Well there's Melbourne, Carlton and Adelaide in there now. The first two sound laughable, but Adelaide almost won a prelim two years ago. Not sure if the depth will take them that far this year due to injuries again.
2002, 2003, 2010
For numbers ranging from 2-5th place
Sounds like a reasonable place to be for teams looking to burst out of the gates. West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn and GWS currently hold those places in order for the first round.
West Coast have been touted as premiership favourites in the past, only to come crashing down into mediocrity due to injuries. They were in a prelim three ago. Could this be their year? The Western powers show promise indeed.
Essendon being the wildcard, despite possessing a list that on their heyday could beat almost any team, has not won a final for ten years! Without the reliability of teams like Collingwood and Sydney, Essendon has to start somewhere. Winning a final is the expectation, prelim is the dream. Grand Final win/appearance is Total Recall.
Hawthorn being the usual finals suspects would do well with this statistic. Although, the last time a team went back to back was Brisbane in 2002-2003. Ever since, teams such as Sydney (2005-2006), Geelong (2007-2008), and Collingwood (2010-2011) were unable to complete said task. Could Hawthorn be the team that has the determination to do so?
As for GWS, just no. Too early for such feats.
Speaking of 2nd to 5th...
2-5th from 2001-2013
KEY:
2nd - (final place at end of season)
3rd - (final place at end of season)
4th - (final place at end of season)
5th - (final place at end of season)
2001
gee - 12th
syd - elim
ric - prelim
por - semi
2002
stk - 15th
ric - 14th
bri - premiers
mel - semi
2003
bri - premiers
wce - elim
ade - semi
wbd - 16th (last)
2004
nth - 10th
stk - prelim
fre - 9th
ric - 16th (last)
2005
mel - elim
fre - 10th
gee - semi
wbd - 9th
2006
gee - 10th
nth - 14th
ade - prelim
ess - 15th
2007 (this was a weird year)
stk - 9th
ess - 12th
wbd - 13th
car - 15th
2008
ess - 12th
ric - 9th
col - semi
wce - 15th
2009
wbd - prelim
pta - 10th
nth - 13th
stk - runner up
2010
fre - semi
car - elim
bri - 13th
col - premiers
2011
col - runner up
car - semi
ade - 14th
wce - prelim
2012
ade - prelim
wce - semi
car - 10th
bri - 13th
2013
wbd - 15th
ess - *7th or 9th*
syd - prelim
fre - runner up
FINAL PLACES FOR FIRST ROUND TEAMS IN 2ND, 3RD, 4TH, AND 5TH (2001-PRESENT)
2nd
12th, 15th, premiers, 10th, elim, 10th, 9th, 12th, prelim, semi, runner up, prelim, 15th
3rd
elim, 14th, elim, prelim, 10th, 14th, 12th, 9th, 10th, elim, semi, semi, *7th or 9th*
4th
prelim, premiers, semi, 9th, semi, prelim, 13th, semi, 13th, 13th, 14th, 10th, prelim
5th
semi, semi, last, last, 9th, 15th, 15th, 15th, runner up, premiers, prelim, 13th, runner up
THROUGH TIME (2001-present)
Highest a team can go
2 - premiers, elim, prelim, semi, runner up, prelim (6)
3 - elim, elim, prelim, elim, semi, semi (6)
4 - prelim, premiers, semi, semi, prelim, semi, prelim (7)
5 - semi, semi, runner up, premiers, prelim, runner up (6)
Lowest a team can go
2 - 12th, 15th, 10th, 10th, 9th, 12th, 15th (7)
3 - 14th, 10th, 14th, 12th, 9th, 10th, *7th or 9th* (7)
4 - 9th, 13th, 13th, 13th, 14th, 10th (6)
5 - last, last, 9th, 15th, 15th, 15th, 13th (7)
FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST IN POTENTIAL FOR POSITION
When having finals opportunities
2 - elim, semi, prelim, prelim, runner up ,premiers
3 - elim, elim, elim, semi, semi, prelim
4 - semi, semi, semi, prelim, prelim, prelim, premiers
5 - semi, semi, prelim, runner up, runner up, premiers
When not having finals opportunities
2 - 15th, 15th, 12th, 12th, 10th, 10th, 9th
3 - 14th, 14th, 12th, 10th, 10th, 9th, 9th or 7th
4 - 14th, 13th, 13th, 13th, 10th, 9th
5 - last, last, 15th, 15th, 15th, 13th, 9th
RANKING OF CHANCE FROM HIGHEST TO LOWEST
4th:
Highest point of failure for a team listed here in the first round if striving to be a finalist would be the semis. While there are no records of being a runner up in this time period, there are plenty of semis and prelims to show off, along with the chance of a premiership. Hawthorn are ranked here, and it sure does make sense for them to be there according to the statistics.
2nd:
Highest point of failure for a team listed here in the first round is the elimination finals, but has the second highest recordings of prelims since 2001. Along with the chance of a premiership, West Coast are in a decent position if they want to aim high.
3rd:
Highest point of failure for a team listed here in the first round is also the elimination finals. There are no records since 2001 that show a team in this position winning the premiership, except for second, fourth, and fifth position. This position also has the least fallback with near the 9th area if this team were to fall into mediocrity. Sounds like it fits Essendon perfectly.
5th
While this position has an impressive resume in terms of highest success, with semis being the least of expectation to having 3 chances at the cup, with one of them being a success, there are gaping holes too. This position also boasts the hardest fallback with two last places, and three 15th places. Due to the team in this position now being GWS, this position is an accurate fit.
For Essendon from 2008-2013:
1 or 2 times they have maintained spot in top 8
1 or 2 times they have dropped out of the top 8
1 time they have improved to get to top 8
2 times not sighted in top 8 from start of season and end
Whatever views of last year's debacle, regarding ladder wise, Essendon still remain a wildcard in terms of whether they will maintain themselves in the top 8 or not.
Seeing as how this season so far for round 1 they have won, unless further muck ups occur, it could go either way. At least Essendon has been sighted in the top 8 for round 1 and could have the opportunity to maintain their spot in the top 8, wherever that may be.
Like The Inquirer said, teams that have lost the opening round can still obtain the premiership, but they have a 37.5% chance of that happening. As for teams that do win their opening round, they have a more comfortable 62.5% chance of holding the cup (percentages from 1990-present).
It will be interesting to see which team can stay to statistics, or defy them for winning the premiership. Hopefully that team can be ours soon.
