Cryptocurrency mega-thread

Quixote

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But yes the halvening-a-ling, it's definitely happening, that much I know! I tend to agree with YF's take on it.

Side note, ETH bulls right now on some good shit MDMA.
 

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ash_1050

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Will look into it, thanks for the heads up. Apologies for the initial scepticism, it's as a result of seeing dozens and dozens of things be touted and then get exit scammed or hacked or just plain be sloppy.
 

Evolved1

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"Futures are financial contracts obligating the buyer to purchase an asset or the seller to sell an asset and have a predetermined future date and price. A futures contract allows an investor to speculate on the direction of a security, commodity, or a financial instrument."

The only difference between a future and an option is you are obligated to buy/sell the underlying at a certain price with a future, whereas with an option you have the right, but not the obligation, to buy/sell the underlying at a certain price.

If there are more people selling bitcoin futures than there are buying them, the price has to fall. Futures are a leading indicator of any commodity or equity.

The only way it can't fall is if people who have no idea think that a commodity/stock is 'cheap' when it does start to go down and push up the price - which is good for the person who has committed to sell and bad for the person who has committed to buy.

Crypto is exactly like tulip mania in the 17th century. It's based entirely on speculation that the price is going to rise or fall without the actual underlying product having much worth at all. Now, some people postulate that due to its nature, it has become a digital form of gold...but gold has intrinsic value. It can be crafted into jewellery, used in industrial applications and has been around for centuries.

I'm not saying that crypto doesn't have a place in the market. But the whole point of a digital currency, to my mind, is to stop the speculation that happens in money markets so goods and services can be sold internationally at a constant rate.

Facebook's Libra had enormous potential as a stablecoin but they killed it as soon as they said that everyone has to use their proprietary wallet.
Tulip mania was a one time bubble, wasn't it? Bitcoin has had several bubbles already, and there's an extremely high chance that it will enter another bubble (or more) at some stage.

I'd argue bitcoin does have inherent value that is based on the cost to mine a bitcoin. If you're taking the stand that it has no value, the intrinsic value of the AUD is next to nothing too, right?

Even a stable coin will bounce around in absolute value based on whatever form of currency it's tied to. There's no way around that afaic.

To me, the main point of bitcoin (as opposed to cryptocurrency in general) is to take power away from centralized governments/banks and place it into the hands of individual people. Halving of mining rewards is a large part of what makes it a good investment when purchases are timed well, and I can't see how that's a bad thing.

Bitcoin wasn't always seen as a form of digital gold, which is a large part of the reason that several other cryptocurrencies have gained popularity. There are signs that BTC prices move as a defensive asset, which is interesting.

I think it's here for the long haul and I see a single bitcoin eventually hitting seven figures in USD. Time will tell.
 

Evolved1

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There's always talk of the next big thing that will blow everything else out of the water. I'll believe it when I see it, for the moment it's a case of hold and see what happens.

Side note BTC halving in approximately 89 days. Traditionally this hasn't resulted in much price impact, though plenty of people will attribute large price rises 12-18 months after the halving to being as a result of the halving. Correlation =/= causation.
When mining rewards are halved, there are less bitcoins being mined and therefore less bitcoin sold by miners. Since price depends on the economics of supply and demand, a reduction in supply theoretically should lead to an increase in price.

That's causation.
 

Scotland

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I'd argue bitcoin does have inherent value that is based on the cost to mine a bitcoin. If you're taking the stand that it has no value, the intrinsic value of the AUD is next to nothing too, right?
The AUD is the currency of a first world nation with a central bank, stable govt, high credit rating and economy worth $1.4t. That is what gives it value. Most of it doesn't even exist as physical notes and coins, just 1s and 0s. I don't think the amount of energy used to mine a bitcoin gives it a lot of value.

To me, the main point of bitcoin (as opposed to cryptocurrency in general) is to take power away from centralized governments/banks and place it into the hands of individual people. Halving of mining rewards is a large part of what makes it a good investment when purchases are timed well, and I can't see how that's a bad thing.

Bitcoin wasn't always seen as a form of digital gold, which is a large part of the reason that several other cryptocurrencies have gained popularity. There are signs that BTC prices move as a defensive asset, which is interesting.

I think it's here for the long haul and I see a single bitcoin eventually hitting seven figures in USD. Time will tell.
Bitcoin/crypto spruikers come up with new reasons why it's great every so often. Better than centralised currencies, store of wealth etc. Because they want the value to stay high. Which is fair enough, but I laugh whenever someone says how great it is because FIAT sucks (99% chance they don't know what FIAT means) but is constantly checking how much USD it is worth. If it's so great go buy your Lambo with it and cut out the FIAT middle man.

The whole 'it's valuable because no govt or central bank can control it' thing is a bit of a furphy because with a fixed supply of anything it just becomes a matter of who owns what. It fails as a currency because the focus is on scarcity, not stability and functionality. If one person owned every single BTC it would be functionally useless. Would people prefer to live in an Australia where there was a fixed supply of AUD and whether a loaf of bread was $1 or $100 depended on what a few billionaires felt like doing that week?

The tech is interesting, the coins are mostly Ponzi schemes. Eventually we will reach a point where there are no BTC to be mined. Then what?
 

ash_1050

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When mining rewards are halved, there are less bitcoins being mined and therefore less bitcoin sold by miners. Since price depends on the economics of supply and demand, a reduction in supply theoretically should lead to an increase in price.

That's causation.
Except it hasn't, if there was a clear link between the halving and price increases it wouldn't take 12-18 months to become apparent as the supply dries up immediately. That's correlation.
 

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Evolved1

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The AUD is the currency of a first world nation with a central bank, stable govt, high credit rating and economy worth $1.4t. That is what gives it value. Most of it doesn't even exist as physical notes and coins, just 1s and 0s.
The AUD isn't backed by gold or anything tangible. It only holds value as long as our economic system and government remain strong. So far, so good, and it's likely that things will remain good for the foreseeable future.
I don't think the amount of energy used to mine a bitcoin gives it a lot of value.
Something is giving it value, or there would be no reason for anyone to trade their fiat for bitcoin. I'm open to suggestions.
Bitcoin/crypto spruikers come up with new reasons why it's great every so often. Better than centralised currencies, store of wealth etc. Because they want the value to stay high. Which is fair enough, but I laugh whenever someone says how great it is because FIAT sucks (99% chance they don't know what FIAT means) but is constantly checking how much USD it is worth. If it's so great go buy your Lambo with it and cut out the FIAT middle man.
I have no interest in shilling bitcoin and shitcoins here. What difference would it make anyway?

I have nfi if the option is still available, but there was a time when you could buy a lambo with bitcoin.
The whole 'it's valuable because no govt or central bank can control it' thing is a bit of a furphy because with a fixed supply of anything it just becomes a matter of who owns what.
I don't see the relevance of your point tbh. If BTC could be printed at will, that would only diminish its value.
It fails as a currency because the focus is on scarcity, not stability and functionality.
It fails as a currency because it can be slow and expensive to use. The scarcity had no effect on its use as a currency in its early days.
If one person owned every single BTC it would be functionally useless.
Irrelevant.
Would people prefer to live in an Australia where there was a fixed supply of AUD and whether a loaf of bread was $1 or $100 depended on what a few billionaires felt like doing that week?
If you want to play the hyperbole game, I'm happy to raise you in Venezuelan boliviar.
The tech is interesting, the coins are mostly Ponzi schemes. Eventually we will reach a point where there are no BTC to be mined. Then what?
Enlighten me with an explanation as to how BTC is a ponzi scheme. I see that claim bandied around often, but I'm yet to see any rationale behind it.
 

Evolved1

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Except it hasn't, if there was a clear link between the halving and price increases it wouldn't take 12-18 months to become apparent as the supply dries up immediately. That's correlation.
Miners hoard coins before the halving and offload them as prices increase. That's why there's a lag effect. You're overthinking things.

Come back to me in June 2021 and tell me that the halving has no relationship to the price.
 

ash_1050

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Miners hoard coins before the halving and offload them as prices increase. That's why there's a lag effect. You're overthinking things.

Come back to me in June 2021 and tell me that the halving has no relationship to the price.
We'll find out, very happy to be wrong on this one as I'd benefit greatly from doing so.
 

BobbyMorri

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The AUD isn't backed by gold or anything tangible. It only holds value as long as our economic system and government remain strong. So far, so good, and it's likely that things will remain good for the foreseeable future.
actually, the AUD is backed by our government. And as the old saying goes, there are only 2 certainties in life; death and taxes. So, in a roundabout sort of way, the AUD is backed by our taxes, which will always be a thing(unless we all die)

I don't see the relevance of your point tbh. If BTC could be printed at will, that would only diminish its value.
It fails as a currency because it can be slow and expensive to use. The scarcity had no effect on its use as a currency in its early days.
Is diminishing its value a bad thing. Inflation is only bad if it is out of control.

lets put it this way. the best currency should be a bad investment, to encourage people to spend and not just hoard money under their bed. Capitalism only works when people spend money.
 

Scotland

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actually, the AUD is backed by our government. And as the old saying goes, there are only 2 certainties in life; death and taxes. So, in a roundabout sort of way, the AUD is backed by our taxes, which will always be a thing(unless we all die)
It's not backed by gold, which is what people always hark back to despite the fact that hasn't been the case for 50 years. I reckon most people that hate on fiat currency (OMG it has no value) are trying to argue against fractional reserve banking and monetary policy.

Is diminishing its value a bad thing. Inflation is only bad if it is out of control.

lets put it this way. the best currency should be a bad investment, to encourage people to spend and not just hoard money under their bed. Capitalism only works when people spend money.
I've seen people argue passionately that inflation is bad, a centralised currency is bad and an increasing money supply is bad. With any centralised currency the reserve bank or equivalent dictates money supply. Why doesn't the RBA just stop printing money and cap the supply of AUD where it is? People seem to think it's a wonderful idea, but no one does it.
 

BobbyMorri

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It's not backed by gold, which is what people always hark back to despite the fact that hasn't been the case for 50 years. I reckon most people that hate on fiat currency (OMG it has no value) are trying to argue against fractional reserve banking and monetary policy.



I've seen people argue passionately that inflation is bad, a centralised currency is bad and an increasing money supply is bad. With any centralised currency the reserve bank or equivalent dictates money supply. Why doesn't the RBA just stop printing money and cap the supply of AUD where it is? People seem to think it's a wonderful idea, but no one does it.
IIRC(and in simple terms), money is not backed by gold because it limited the money supply and hence growth. These 2 things are linked.
 

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