- Sep 17, 2019
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bear trap
Cryptocurrency mega-thread
- Thread starter DapperJong
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- Jun 14, 2013
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They're pretty difficult trading conditions. You're doing well if you're in the green.
Agree and it's something I've learnt this week, that it's very difficult while things are averaging down. Wednesday I was doing great, but ever since it's a struggle. I'm probably down 2%.
Found this volume indicator https://agile-cliffs-23967.herokuapp.com/binance. Would be more helpful in a bull market
RSI and MACD are good and well established volume indicators. I’m finding RSI a lot more reliable at detecting overbought/oversold markets, especially looking back over historical data as well.
Have seen these big money transfers onto/off exchanges having little impact on price lately, just feels like a bear trap.
- Jun 14, 2013
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Possibly. Either that or big players are exiting before stablecoin regulation. One theory going around is that the recent NFT pump was due to money laundering.
Never a dull moment in crypto.
Where did you hear about stablecoin regulation? Are you referring to the AXS pump?
Thanks. That's a new thing for me and having a quick look it does seem to help, looking historically.
An example of the RSI showing an oversold signal on the hourly for ETH The Dice Man (less than 30).
Conversely, below is an overbought signal on the hourly (more than 70).
Daily timeframes are obviously better to use for macro trends. Overbought signals on the daily during the big legs of a bull run may not neccessarily lead to a dump the next day; however, it's definitely getting close to the peak and I would start taking profits. Good to use in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands and BB%.
They're both common trading indicators for the traditional stock market as well and have been around a long time.
- Jun 14, 2013
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The reason I’m most bullish is due to how low the retail sentiment is on Twitter, that’s exactly when price does the exact opposite and catches people off guard. Retail sentiment after the 2018 crash was still bullish for a couple of months, which is a complete opposite to now. Will be so many that buy high and sell low again. Even neutral posts are getting slammed as hopium on Twitter.
Fair point. The market seems to find a way of doing what everyone least expects. Remember not so long ago when everyone had the laser eyes out and was expecting $100k btc this year. Now everyone has their money in stables expecting to buy btc for $20k. Could easily be a bear trap.
I honestly don’t get what is happening right now. 32k seems like a major resistance level, but the RSI on the hourly isn’t even close to showing it as overbought at that price. If you look over the last week, the price just bounces between 31-32k.
Welcome to crypto when it isn't going nuts, it just sort of sits there for weeks/months on end and gradually trends downward in the process. It's all part of the cycle and has done this at least half a dozen times before.
When the market is at its least interesting is the time to start dollar cost averaging if you're a long term holder, rather than the last two months of trying to catch a falling knife because 'surely it's got to go back up soon'. Given I'm not a long term holder anymore I'll wait until if/when it hits $20k or thereabouts and jump in then.
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Does anyone find it interesting that the Puell Multiple never flashed an overbought during the recent run to 64k? This marked the peaks in December 2017, April 2013 and December 2013.
An oversold signal then flashed on June 28 (first time in nearly a year and generally a good historical indicator of a bottom), but with all the miner movement right now, it could be a false signal. Market bottoms in the past have been closer to 0.3, while this recent signal was only at 0.43. Basically, just reinforces this market is very hard to read at the moment.
An oversold signal then flashed on June 28 (first time in nearly a year and generally a good historical indicator of a bottom), but with all the miner movement right now, it could be a false signal. Market bottoms in the past have been closer to 0.3, while this recent signal was only at 0.43. Basically, just reinforces this market is very hard to read at the moment.
Clubs are trumps
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- Mar 23, 2012
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Is anyone still hodling? I cant see any way but down for the overall marketcap and similar to the last crypto moonshot in 2017 there will be plenty of time to buy back in at the bottom.
The bottom this time wont be 100b but predicting somewhere in the 300-400b range.
The bottom this time wont be 100b but predicting somewhere in the 300-400b range.
- Sep 17, 2019
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Seeing all the selling and buying alerts on twitter, Doge, XRP and Link seem to have the biggest buys, with Doge being the biggest I've seen today
so yeah, whales are loading up it seems, hopefully bounce soon.
so yeah, whales are loading up it seems, hopefully bounce soon.
The word is that bears are targeting 28k. Well, after many weeks of trying they finally got below 30k, so if 28k is achieved I can see a buying frenzy. All trading indicators were showing oversold signals on the hourly chart at 31k, so this is way oversold now. I honestly see very little similarities with previous cycles anymore, institutions are controlling these price swings now more than ever.
That Puell indicator above has been bang on with previous cycle peaks.
Stock market had its biggest crash of the year as well today I think?
Oh it will bounce, and crypto is a highly levered market so expect it to bounce hard.
The key as to whether or not it's sustainable is whether it's bouncing on high or low volume.
- Aug 24, 2017
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So i bought in when everything was basically at ATHs, just before the big crash. I guess everyone has to start somewhere 
I haven't sold a single coin yet and topped up a couple at slightly lower prices. I own only altcoins (matic, ada, dot, luna, doge, nano, one, shib) and don't really have enough capital to go at Btc or Eth so the plan is to just hold them indefinitely until they either die or make a profit.
Didn't know anything about investing when i bought just grabbed some that i thought could make me a quick buck!
Guess I'll be holding for a long time yet before that happens but just wanted to share my story.
Not sure if i am keen to buy more of what i own now at bottomed out prices to even out my buy averages a bit?
I haven't sold a single coin yet and topped up a couple at slightly lower prices. I own only altcoins (matic, ada, dot, luna, doge, nano, one, shib) and don't really have enough capital to go at Btc or Eth so the plan is to just hold them indefinitely until they either die or make a profit.
Didn't know anything about investing when i bought just grabbed some that i thought could make me a quick buck!
Guess I'll be holding for a long time yet before that happens but just wanted to share my story.
Not sure if i am keen to buy more of what i own now at bottomed out prices to even out my buy averages a bit?
