Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[bzparkes]

Diluted supply was always meant to mean greater value, however….

Only if demand outstrips supply. Such is the case with BTC and ETH. Not the case however with most altcoins, which leads to people thinking they're on a good wicket by staking, when they're really devaluing their own investment by doing so, if there's no mechanism to reduce the supply in place.

 

[bzparkes]

Who has a good track record at picking low cap alts before they're well known?

How low are we talking? I've had moderate success with prelaunches. My issue is I got too greedy on some and didn't exit at a very favourable position.

Lesson learnt.

 

[BACCS]

I'd rather just coast along like this until around 6 months before the next halving, even if I goes lower. More interested in accumulating for the next couple of years at this stage, then looking at what projects have managed to still go strong during the bear market and look to get in early on those.

I certainly don't think people need to rush accumulating, as there will be numerous opportunities to buy at these levels over the coming months I reckon.

 

[BACCS]

Yeah, I had a bit of a holding in FAB (a synthetic asset issuance protocol only recently built on Solana)

Great community and the audit of the code was pretty much flawless. However a couple of weeks ago the coder (and co-founder) was discovered to have leverage traded the treasury funds away

Lesson learnt : Don't trust, verify. Ask to see the address of the treasury fund wallet if you have to

Absolutely, always a red flag for me if they aren't up front about the treasury wallets and do not have a multi-sig team for any important treasury decisions.

 

[bzparkes]

I certainly don't think people need to rush accumulating, as there will be numerous opportunities to buy at these levels over the coming months I reckon.

Depends what kind of plan you have. I'm just putting in $200 a fortnight, split between btc and eth for now.

I'm not going to attempt to perfectly time bottoms, as over a 10+ year time period you're better off than people who try to time the market lows instead of regular DCA, because you'll have more money in the market long term and get a bigger return.

 

[BACCS]

That's true. I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for newcomers also.

For current projects, I'm more interested something like Harmony for example, which contains to do good things and delivering on promises.

Still pretty low cap, with plenty of room to move.

Not to burst your bubble, but some smart crypto people in the MC trading chat have mentioned they are not sure Harmony would hold up with even half the amount of activity Ethereum gets.

 

[BACCS]

Who has a good track record at picking low cap alts before they're well known?

How low are we talking?

 

[The Dice Man]

That's true. I'll definitely be keeping an eye out for newcomers also.

For current projects, I'm more interested something like Harmony for example, which contains to do good things and delivering on promises.

Still pretty low cap, with plenty of room to move.

I've been into Harmony for the last year, and whilst I haven't been keeping current the last couple of months they were having quite a bit of network congestion problems at times, and for some reason Binance was (then) blocking transactions to One. I've got a fair bit of One and was hoping it could perform like FTM at some stage.

 

[bzparkes]

Not to burst your bubble, but some smart crypto people in the MC trading chat have mentioned they are not sure Harmony would hold up with even half the amount of activity Ethereum gets.

Oh I don't hold any, just an example.

 

[bzparkes]

I've been into Harmony for the last year, and whilst I haven't been keeping current the last couple of months they were having quite a bit of network congestion problems at times, and for some reason Binance was (then) blocking transactions to One. I've got a fair bit of One and was hoping it could perform like FTM at some stage.

Potential's there, provided they continue to deliver and clean up the congestion. One(no pun intended) to keep an eye on, amongst many.

 

[The Dice Man]

Potential's there, provided they continue to deliver and clean up the congestion. One(no pun intended) to keep an eye on, amongst many.

I havent even looked at the value of my One (in USD terms) for about 6 weeks. I know it's there and it can just chill and go to zero, or do something one day. I've got it staking on Tranquil finance, which was looking promising for a little bit.

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

Only if demand outstrips supply. Such is the case with BTC and ETH. Not the case however with most altcoins, which leads to people thinking they're on a good wicket by staking, when they're really devaluing their own investment by doing so, if there's no mechanism to reduce the supply in place.

Nearly every coin has a staking somewhere or earn. Can still be valuable in the right demanded investment. What do you think of shit coin reflections some exchanges do like gate and Lbank, plus metask and wherever else, I liked it initially but they have been rug pulls

 

[Bostonian]

It doesn't solve any problems. The technology might be good for something, some day. But it's not good as money.

What kind of money?

The kind that's just numbers on an electronic ledger?

 

[Bostonian]

I certainly don't think people need to rush accumulating, as there will be numerous opportunities to buy at these levels over the coming months I reckon.

Which is why my 1% strategy works a charm.

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

It doesn't solve any problems. The technology might be good for something, some day. But it's not good as money.

It’s awesome as money. Even stable coins are, the space needs correcting on digital stable coins, then the rest can work and have trust again.

 

[bzparkes]

Nearly every coin has a staking somewhere or earn. Can still be valuable in the right demanded investment. What do you think of s**t coin reflections some exchanges do like gate and Lbank, plus metask and wherever else, I liked it initially but they have been rug pulls

Staking/earn depends on the long-term viability of the token itself, imo. Devs use it to lure investors in for the long-term on projects, so people don't abandon them. It's still something you want to watch closely though, because there's usually a turning point from when you start making gains to the supply outstripping demand, so people start dumping. Good devs will have a plan to counter this long-term but it's something you'll want to look for. If they don't, just avoid them.

Reflections 'can' be good but depends what they're in. For instance, if they're reflecting in a different token, such as BNB, BUSD, etc., then I think that's favourable for the long term. If they're simply reflecting their own token then you need to look for an early exit, because others will simply start dumping their reflected tokens, which will tank the price. The exception to this is if there's a buyback/burn mechanism to counter this but most projects don't have this functionality. You don't want the token's sole purpose to be reflections though, because if there's no hype around the project, there'll be no volume and the token will die. Most of these new tokens are dead after a week, if they weren't a scam to begin with, whereas others that have an actual business use-case with revenue streams will offer them to holders as a reward. I think these are ok.

Of course, there's always outliers like Safemoon, but getting into those early is akin to buying a lotto ticket and they don't tend to last longer than 6-8 months, because they're solely built on hype.

Re-base tokens seem to have taken over from reflection tokens in that regard, where the circulating supply adjusts in response to price fluctuations. They either mint or burn automatically in response to price changes, to ensure the price of individual tokens continues to rise, without the supply affecting your own bag. I'd say 95+% of these are scams though, from what I've seen.

 

[ash_1050]

Who has a good track record at picking low cap alts before they're well known?

John McAfee circa 2017-18*


*he may have been pumping and dumping low cap alts but he was damn good at picking them before they spiked

 

[ash_1050]

Not to burst your bubble, but some smart crypto people in the MC trading chat have mentioned they are not sure Harmony would hold up with even half the amount of activity Ethereum gets.

Good to see you're back BACCS after a bit of a break from the space. It's probably been a painful 2022 thus far, but also the most educational, and you're now in the sweet spot to accumulate and hodl if you're leaning towards another crypto tilt.

 

[Kram]

Evolved1 said you guys could handle some opposing views.

Guess not

Like HC a thread just doesn't feel right without a downramper or 2.

 

[moncon]

Interesting debate about money. For me the point is that crypto is less than 15 years old. A lot of things are pretty crap when the technology is new - cars & planes for example, medicine, electricity, and indeed fiat money (from the point of view of "money" being a "technology"). Cast your mind back 100 years when Western states were moving off the gold standard for various reasons and you'll find plenty of examples of fiat money going wrong. More recently, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela have all got it wrong. Were they deliberate scams? Perhaps not, but the effect of their failures on the average person in those countries was equivalent to them being scams, imo, and those people had no choice over whether or not they wanted to be involved. Just about everything in crypto is an experiment. Is bitcoin snake-oil, or penicillin? We shall see.

 

[Scotland]

Only if demand outstrips supply. Such is the case with BTC and ETH. Not the case however with most altcoins, which leads to people thinking they're on a good wicket by staking, when they're really devaluing their own investment by doing so, if there's no mechanism to reduce the supply in place.

That sounds more like getting interest on a term deposit than owning shares to me.

 

[BACCS]

Good to see you're back BACCS after a bit of a break from the space. It's probably been a painful 2022 thus far, but also the most educational, and you're now in the sweet spot to accumulate and hodl if you're leaning towards another crypto tilt.

Thanks mate, I'm sure you might be able to understand what team boards on here can be like when your team is in a down patch!

The bear market has been here for months already, so it definitely wasn't a surprise, but there was a shock seeing BTC at one stage hit 17k and ETH 850ish. I'm paying close attention to the 200 WMA for BTC, it has never lost that for longer than a couple of months during previous bear cycle bottoms, but 2022 is also a very different macro economic scenario to those previous years.

I haven't sold a cent of my holdings and do not plan to until probably 2023 at some point, when I expect the market to have recovered somewhat (maybe BTC back at 40k and ETH at 3k). The Merit Circle community have been great for my development in crypto and financial markets in general, some very clever people in there with many years experience in both crypto and TradFi. They have also taught me a bit about the underbelly that exists in crypto and the people/teams to be cautious of, which included some recent high profile examples (Merit Circle held 10M UST in Achor and pulled out a couple of weeks before it spiralled, due to some reservations about on-chain activity of the LUNA team and how they were acting on social media).

 

[BACCS]

That sounds more like getting interest on a term deposit than owning shares to me.

It depends on the project. With a DAO that you can stake tokens in for example, these tokens are largely used for governance decisions to provide direction for the project. The more tokens you have (initial staking principal and any rewards), the more weight you will have in the decision (not that different to how any public company operates with share holdings).

 

[bzparkes]

That sounds more like getting interest on a term deposit than owning shares to me.

Essentially it is with a lot of protocols. If you're 'staking/earning' major cryptos on an exchange, you're pretty much lending to the exchange and they pay you back interest in the same token.

It's why it can go arse-up sometimes, because some exchanges over-leverage.

Just like the banks in the USA when the sub-prime mortgage crisis happened. The only difference there was that the government bailed them out.

Other forms of staking increase the available supply as rewards, which can be done through proof of stake. They usually have 'minable' tokens which continue to halve until maximum supply is reached, however a lot of newcomers simply don't understand that mining more devalues your current holdings and if your rate doesn't = inflation, you get rekt. This is where yield farmers come out on top because they mine new protocols like a mofo for a few hours then dump like crazy and exit before 12 hours after release. These projects inevitably die within a month but the lucky ones do a reversal after around 6 and have a massive pump IF the devs are smart and manage to reduce the circulating supply.

 

[Evolved1]

How low are we talking? I've had moderate success with prelaunches. My issue is I got too greedy on some and didn't exit at a very favourable position.

Lesson learnt.

Anything under $1B marketcap, though the smaller the better. It's not something I'm looking to implement just yet, rather a strategy I'd like to have fine tuned before the next bull run.

What's your strategy?