Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[The Dice Man]

Nah, market has at least another 12 months of trending downwards. I reckon BTC will drop to >US$20k, at which point I'd look to enter the market again.

Whattya mean man? I've made €6.74 this morning alone just drinking coffee.

 

[Evolved1]

Cummies is pumping again, and Elon Sperm looks like it's breaking out of accumulation.

 

[BACCS]

Getting smashed the last hour, did someone Tweet some FUD?

 

[The Dice Man]

Getting smashed the last hour, did someone Tweet some FUD?

I regret this morning's 3 coffees.

 

[Evolved1]

Getting smashed the last hour, did someone Tweet some FUD?

Market dumping because the crows lost.

 

[The Dice Man]

I don't use Twitter but think I might to follow some crypto news. Who is recommended for good infos?

 

[bzparkes]

I don't use Twitter but think I might to follow some crypto news. Who is recommended for good infos?

Elon Musk.

 

[The Dice Man]

Elon Musk.

I don't need to follow him to know what he's doing.

 

[Evolved1]

I don't need to follow him to know what he's doing.

What do you mean by crypto news? Most people are only interested in knowing where and when the next green dildo is popping up.

 

[The Dice Man]

What do you mean by crypto news? Most people are only interested in knowing where and when the next green dildo is popping up.

Well yeah, looking for that dlldo (something I've never said before)

 

[bzparkes]

Well yeah, looking for that dlldo (something I've never said before)

You probably want to look elsewhere at in all honesty. By the time things hit mainstream Twitter posters they've usually blown up and you'll be late to the party.

 

[ash_1050]

Well yeah, looking for that dlldo (something I've never said before)

www.reddit.com/r/cryptocurrency is a good spot for news. Beware the obvious bias that's pro-crypto, but other than that there's plenty of news, discussion and debate. It can be a case of fossicking for gold though, as there's plenty of garbage to wade through.

 

[The Dice Man]

Doge is my only green for the day.

 

[The Dice Man]

Bitcoin down 32% from its ATH on April 14th.
ETH down 19.5% from its ATH on 4th May.
Total crypto market cap is down from $2.52t ATH on May 5th to $2.06t currently, a decline of 19.3%.
In market terms a correction is a decline of more than 10%, and a bear market is a decline of more than 20%.
At this point Bitcoin is in a bear market, ETH is on the cusp of a bear market and the market as a whole is only a whisker off it as well.
Tread carefully.

I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

[The Dice Man]

Still waiting on your summary on why cypto is still in a bull mrket. Let's assume it's not coming, as you've got no idea what you're talking about. A week's worth of 'research' isn't enough to understand macro market forces and business cycles. Apologies if it seems aggressive, but you're being spoon fed bullshit by people who want to make you the new bagholder. You've also got absolutely no idea about the taxation side of things. It's going to end in tears.

I've been using crypto since 2010 and have been involved in buying/holding/selling for the last 8-9 years. I've spent thousands of hours reading up on crypto, and made a profit in the process, in amongst occasionally being scammed or making poor decisions along the way. I sold my last 0.5BTC back in March at around US$48k as the market was severely overbought then. That's my experience.

But none of that matters, as a 30 second google search on market cycles shows that BTC is in a bear market, whilst ETH and crypto as a less than 1% retracement off being in a bear market. And yes, I am entirely correct in that statement as it's business 101 stuff.

A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment
Bull market: a market in which share prices are rising, encouraging buying.

Which of those two statements seems to be most applicable at the moment?

Happy to leave it there. Feel free to bump these posts at any point in the next 12 months if I'm wrong and BTC/ETH/crypto moves above the previous ATH with a big 'I told you so' and I'll step up to eat humble pie. FWIW I think crypto is currently in the 'complacency' point of the market cycle.

You posted all this on the 18th of May.

I've been reading the last 100 pages of this thread since Friday afternood, an intersting time capsule for sure. Ash_1050 posts stand out with some accuracy, but overall it's a friendly thread with good intentions. I was watching The tiges and Bombers today but my attention kept getting drawn to old posts in this thread.

 

[BACCS]

I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Ash is right about this currently being a bear market, but other than just looking at the current price, there are plenty of other market indicators that point towards a bull cycle resuming shortly, not in 12 months or longer. I highly recommend getting a Glassnode account.

Benjamin Cowen is a good analyst on Twitter and YouTube and focuses purely on trend analysis. Looks at all perspectives from both sides of a bull vs bear argument. There are a lot of ways to analyse the data, and Ben is the only guy I’ve found willing to look at perspectives even he may not believe in.

 

[Evolved1]

You posted all this on the 18th of May.

I've been reading the last 100 pages of this thread since Friday afternood, an intersting time capsule for sure. Ash_1050 posts stand out with some accuracy, but overall it's a friendly thread with good intentions. I was watching The tiges and Bombers today but my attention kept getting drawn to old posts in this thread.

Something to keep in mind is that crypto isn't comparable to the stock market. You're buying useless tokens rather than shares in a company. Most projects exist solely to make the developers rich.

 

[BACCS]

Haven’t watched any of the BTC conference, but from reading a few perspectives on social media it isn’t having a positive impact with the general crypto community outside of the whales at the event. Was the aim of the event to just show off how rich they all are?

 

[Evolved1]

This news is pretty bullish

El Salvador looks to become the world’s first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele plans to introduce legislation that will make it the world's first sovereign nation to adopt bitcoin as legal tender.

www.cnbc.com

 

[ash_1050]

You posted all this on the 18th of May.

I've been reading the last 100 pages of this thread since Friday afternood, an intersting time capsule for sure. Ash_1050 posts stand out with some accuracy, but overall it's a friendly thread with good intentions. I was watching The tiges and Bombers today but my attention kept getting drawn to old posts in this thread.

Good intentions, in hindsight I'm a bit blunt with my wording but ultimately it's a case of not wanting to see people losing money buying into something they know very little about.






The three graphs show a very similar trend, each sitting quiet for a while before having a sudden run up over a short period of time, before dropping off. The top two (2013 and 2017) show the crypto market hitting a new all time high, before losing two thirds of its value over the coming months. The current market is down 37% from the all time high, and I suspect it will decline the additional 30-35% over the next few months, which is why my price point for looking at buying Bitcoin again is US$18,000. Now is not a good time to be buying crypto IMO, 2022 onwards is when you could start to look to dollar cost average into it as things will be much cheaper then.

People can jump up and down and say 'all signs point to a recovery in the next few weeks' all they want, but they're ignoring the main sign which is the fact this has happened twice before, and it was a prolonged downturn over a longer term time period. Any buying now is catching a falling knife. If you look at the weekly graphs of Bitcoin price it's been 90 days since Bitcoin had any really positive week on week growth. It's not coming back anytime soon.

 

[BACCS]

Until BTC gets above the 20 week SMA on the weekly and holds for a month or two, the market isn’t bullish. It’s a very good support band indicator for a bull cycle. Anyone that sees crypto people predicting V shape recoveries are ignoring the data. It could happen, but I think we are in for a 2-3 month period of accumulation before we start seeing a decent upward trends again. ATHs by this time next year is my prediction, based on what is happening now.

I don’t think we are going further down, historically if the majority of whales are trading long positions, they are right. Similarly, if they are trading short positions then that is a good time to get out for a while and take profits.

 

[Evolved1]

 

[BACCS]

For anyone looking at the long term with their coins, here are some of the weekly trends for major alts:
ADA has been in a bull cycle since November 2020 and is still closing on the weekly above the 20 week SMA. The only dip below happened during the crash in mid May, but even then the weekly still closed well above the SMA and is on a good trend up now.

 

[BACCS]

ETH is very similar to ADA, hasn't left a bull cycle since April 2020:

 

[BACCS]

DOT has been bearish since the crash, but is recovering (it's bull cycle started in December 2020):