Cryptocurrency mega-thread

[BACCS]

Last tap of the Bollinger Band for the weekly signalled the bottom; note that it only wicked here and did not hold at the close. This is sitting at 39k Evolved1, so maybe you're right that this price will be tapped before a bounce. It's already gone well below the band on the daily and this has indicated bounces in the past as well.

ETH's lower band on the daily is sitting at 3k, which also happens to be the 50 week moving average levels. Like BTC, has already gone below on the daily.

 

[BACCS]

Pentoshi has tweeted about 2.7 and 2.2k ETH. I wouldn't rule it out.

The MRI indicator will give a buy signal next week. Willy Woo thinks the downturn ends mid Jan. That's good enough for me. We'll definitely get a decent bounce at some point. Whether that bounce is sustained or just a dead cat is another question. This year wont be as easy as the last 18 months.

Either of those levels for ETH would be a wick on the weekly candle I reckon, just based on what I posted above. Keen to get your thoughts on it.

 

[Evolved1]

Either of those levels for ETH would be a wick on the weekly candle I reckon, just based on what I posted above. Keen to get your thoughts on it.

I think we'll get selling opportunities higher than current prices even if it turns out to be a dead cat bounce.

I've seen bullish and bearish accounts for this year from traders I respect.

I'm leaning slightly towards one more high above 69k, but we're in desperate need of a new narrative to market bitcoin. The alternative is we bleed out until the next halving. It's difficult trading this environment because retail is gone and we're playing against the pro's.

 

[BACCS]

Also a lesson for me next time, the weekly timeframe for Bollinger Bands has given some very clear top signals this cycle and I was too caught up in the daily chart and monitoring too many coins. Heikin Ashi candles showed a pretty clear trend reversal on this timeframe as well. Just reaffirms why I consolidated into ETH, MC and USDT and kept my focus narrower, will hopefully make it easier to not get caught up in the bullish hype at clear tops.

There was some macro news from the US not helping at the top either, but the higher timeframe charts were pretty clear about a trend reversal.

MC staking rewards keeping my portfolio basically net neutral right now. Even if I can't sell until end of year, if this is about the bottom then I can't see myself ending 2022 in any sort of deficit.

 

[BACCS]

I think we'll get selling opportunities higher than current prices even if it turns out to be a dead cat bounce.

I've seen bullish and bearish accounts for this year from traders I respect.

I'm leaning slightly towards one more high above 69k, but we're in desperate need of a new narrative to market bitcoin. The alternative is we bleed out until the next halving. It's difficult trading this environment because retail is gone and we're playing against the pro's.

I certainly think the downside from here is extremely limited, regardless of how big the bounce is. Retail is gone for now, but the majority will be back if they see BTC above 50k again, this seems like a massive psychological number "only a 2x to 100k!".

 

[MirosWife]

Also a lesson for me next time, the weekly timeframe for Bollinger Bands has given some very clear top signals this cycle and I was too caught up in the daily chart and monitoring too many coins. Heikin Ashi candles showed a pretty clear trend reversal on this timeframe as well. Just reaffirms why I consolidated into ETH, MC and USDT and kept my focus narrower, will hopefully make it easier to not get caught up in the bullish hype at clear tops.

There was some macro news from the US not helping at the top either, but the higher timeframe charts were pretty clear about a trend reversal.

MC staking rewards keeping my portfolio basically net neutral right now. Even if I can't sell until end of year, if this is about the bottom then I can't see myself ending 2022 in any sort of deficit.

How much MC do you have staked?

 

[Evolved1]

I certainly think the downside from here is extremely limited, regardless of how big the bounce is. Retail is gone for now, but the majority will be back if they see BTC above 50k again, this seems like a massive psychological number "only a 2x to 100k!".

With due respect, you haven't experienced a long bear market yet. If it's over, this will be a very long two years.

 

[BACCS]

 

[BACCS]

With due respect, you haven't experienced a long bear market yet. If it's over, this will be a very long two years.

With due respect also, there are 2 data points to base the notion of a 2 year bear market for. This is basically the 2nd mini bear market in the last 6 months, clearly the conditions have changed with institutions getting more heavily involved since 2020. There are some macro factors in the US financial markets that definitely have me significantly more cautious this year, but I reckon the last 2 years have showed how quickly Governments can backflip also.

 

[BACCS]

How much MC do you have staked?

About two thirds is in the ETH/MC LP and the rest is on the Binance staking pool, with plans to move it over to the LP after Binance launchpool ends.

 

[BACCS]

If you look back to 2018 Evolved1, it took until the end of 2018 for the weekly to dip below the lower Bollinger Band (which most accept as the end of that bear market) and this triggered a 4x bounce until mid 2019. Volatility was extremely low at this time too, definitely not the case right now with this dump. Until the pandemic crash outlier, BTC was trading sideways for a year until an uptrend resumed.

 

[The Dice Man]

All I know is Ive got far too many shit coins.. ****.

 

[Evolved1]

With due respect also, there are 2 data points to base the notion of a 2 year bear market for. This is basically the 2nd mini bear market in the last 6 months, clearly the conditions have changed with institutions getting more heavily involved since 2020. There are some macro factors in the US financial markets that definitely have me significantly more cautious this year, but I reckon the last 2 years have showed how quickly Governments can backflip also.

Fair points.

We're working against the DXY. If the DXY dumps, BTC (and alts) pump. Crypto will struggle while the US feds work against inflation. Get that money printer pumping and we're likely back and running.

It's also worth considering our position in relation to BTC halvings. We're midway, which typically marks an extended downturn. BTC.D is low, which is another pointer to a prolonged bear market. I don't buy the argument that 'this time is different'.

Best case scenario I see is for us to get slow growth throughout this year with a higher high below 100k. I doubt we get a blowoff top in BTC with massive shitcoin season like previous cycles. The increased institutional involvement will buffer lows and highs.

 

[BACCS]

All I know is Ive got far too many sh*t coins.. fu**.

I didn't take any profits at the top with some pretty clear sell signals on the macro timeframe, we all make mistakes!

 

[Evolved1]

If you look back to 2018 Evolved1, it took until the end of 2018 for the weekly to dip below the lower Bollinger Band (which most accept as the end of that bear market) and this triggered a 4x bounce until mid 2019. Volatility was extremely low at this time too, definitely not the case right now with this dump. Until the pandemic crash outlier, BTC was trading sideways for a year until an uptrend resumed.

Some view the 2018-19 pump as a bear market rally rather than end of the bear market. I tend to agree. That's one of the reasons I think the next couple years will **** with most traders.

 

[BACCS]

Some view the 2018-19 pump as a bear market rally rather than end of the bear market. I tend to agree. That's one of the reasons I think the next couple years will fu** with most traders.

It does look a lot like one in hindsight. However, a similar type bounce in Q1/Q2 this year could still give us a 70k BTC and 5k ETH and major pumps for a few alts. If that does happen, I'm getting the **** out of all positions!

 

[Evolved1]

It does look a lot like one in hindsight. However, a similar type bounce in Q1/Q2 this year could still give us a 70k BTC and 5k ETH and major pumps for a few alts. If that does happen, I'm getting the fu** out of all positions!

Yeah, run for the exit gates if you get that opportunity. Notice how some old hands sold at 60k BTC/4k ETH or near enough to the top, and haven't looked back?

Crypto typically gives one last dump before the halving. That's your time to go heavy and use patience.

 

[BACCS]

Yeah, run for the exit gates if you get that opportunity. Notice how some old hands sold at 60k BTC/4k ETH or near enough to the top, and haven't looked back?

Crypto typically gives one last dump before the halving. That's your time to go heavy and use patience.

Yep, was clear as day that we were losing steam early November, the macro timeframe charts were screaming it loud for everyone to see. I got caught up in the hype and completely missed it, lesson learnt for next time.

 

[The Dice Man]

I didn't take any profits at the top with some pretty clear sell signals on the macro timeframe, we all make mistakes!

Im not too bad... Sold half my Luna in the 80s and put it into FTM in the 1.30s... Around 35% of everything is in the FTM system so my portfolio is still around november levels. It's the real shit I would like another shot to get out of.

BTC conference next week might see us bounce a bit too.

 

[BACCS]

Im not too bad... Sold half my Luna in the 80s and put it into FTM in the 1.30s... Around 35% of everything is in the FTM system so my portfolio is still around november levels. It's the real sh*t I would like another shot to get out of.

BTC conference next week might see us bounce a bit too.

Nice job. I had the realisation I missed the top in December after the weekend flash crash, by which point I didn't see much sense in selling and thought it's best to ride this bearish period out.

 

[The Dice Man]

Nice job. I had the realisation I missed the top in December after the weekend flash crash, by which point I didn't see much sense in selling and thought it's best to ride this bearish period out.

Yeah no use in selling for me either atm but I'd like a little bounce to get out of the coins that wont get through a bear market and save that on the side for bargains.

If you zoom out things aren't too bad anyway, and I don't think past cycles are the be all and end all. There is so much different avenues in the market now; NFTs, Defi, Metaverses, Gaming. I think there's plenty of money to be made still. One thing I know is that I've become much, much more patient over the last month or 2, realising this and shifting large chunks into other areas has helped. And using assets as collateral instead of selling can make passive income, within risk.

 

[BACCS]

Please be whales and not internal transfers!

 

[BACCS]

This is honestly the worst project I've seen since entering crypto, glad it's getting exposed by a few of the more sensible influencers on CT

 

[Pancakes]

All I know is Ive got far too many sh*t coins.. fu**.

Yes agreed.
I'm starting to sell off a few of my holdings, just because it is becoming too time consuming to monitor so many things.
I'll be selling some for a loss, but i've done very well on the ASX since July, so i can use these losses to offset the gains so it isn't a massive issue.

I'm almost at the point i am thinking of ****ing off ADA, that campaigner of a thing needs to go i reckon.

 

[BACCS]

ETH daily RSI at its lowest since the pandemic crash in March 2020, even lower than both the May and July bottoms from last year. It doesn't tend to last this low for very long, a few days at most. BTC daily RSI also officially oversold (~20), but not quite as low as May 2021 (~17); pandemic crash RSI dropped to as low as 10.