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Cryptocurrency mega-thread

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Interested to get your thoughts on this Evolved1 and anyone else that wants to join in. Do you think news events in crypto are just a way to explain a trend that was already starting to happen anyway?

If we take a look at 2021, prices had basically been on up only for 6 months and then news events like Elon Musk/Tesla selling and minining environmental FUD are used to explain the trend reversal in May. It's fairly clear that RSI was way overbought for quite a while and the trend had started to flatten out since mid March, it had simply lost buying momentum and investors had 6-8 weeks where they could have basically sold the top and taken decent profits. Up only for 6 months will always trigger some selling pressure eventually.

This is similar to what happened in early November 2021, where again a news event was used to try and explain the trend reversal (potential rate hikes in the US and Feds tempering inflation in 2022). However, it had again been basically up only mode for 4 months after the mini bear market during the middle months of the year and it gave investors a 2nd opportunity to sell at ATHs. Again, even if you didn't sell the high you had a clear sign of a trend reversal the following week that gave an exit opportunity at 65k.

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WCErevival said:
Any explanation to why FTM is so volatile compared to the other coins?
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I think last week there was a lot of hype for FTM after 2 weeks of rising against a weak BTC. Then people started youtube videos showing Tombfinance and the brilliant APR available on Tshares, which had also doubled in price. People buying Tshares at 20k+ (its at 10k now).

There is super bullish news for FTM coming this month and quarter. Felix and FTMpad will be launched and a new OHM like fork called LIFE is soon to be release. Daniele and Andre Croje have also been linked to a lot coming on FTM.

I swapped all my FTM for Tombs the other day. Tomb is usually pegged to FTM but was 7% under peg.. It's a no brainer to swap 50% back to Ftm once Peg is regained, which it will. Tomb will be huge soon and have strong use-case, as you will need it to access LIFE.
 
Ghost Patrol said:
LUNA starting to breakout on both BTC and USD charts, hopefully keeps going.
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I borrowed against my Luna and bought more Luna at $69. Liquidation price is at $35, pretty comfortable with that.
 
Given the relative low of everything compared to previous ATH, I am considering buying more of existing held coins, just in the mid term hope that there is a bull run at some stage in 2022, even if later in the year.

Probably buy some BTC, ADA, XRP, DOT, LTC, and maybe as a new investment some ETH.
 
What are people's thoughts on turn around time on market and do you think there would be benefit to short term investment? I have a chunk in term deposit that matures shortly but will need most of it in roughly 3-4 months when our home build is scheduled to start. Weighing up if I should put some/all into crypto or just let it sit.
 
Gak Attack said:
What are people's thoughts on turn around time on market and do you think there would be benefit to short term investment? I have a chunk in term deposit that matures shortly but will need most of it in roughly 3-4 months when our home build is scheduled to start. Weighing up if I should put some/all into crypto or just let it sit.
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Don't put money you need in to Crypto IMO, especially not when you need it in the short term and can't ride out the volatility long-term.
 
Gak Attack said:
What are people's thoughts on turn around time on market and do you think there would be benefit to short term investment? I have a chunk in term deposit that matures shortly but will need most of it in roughly 3-4 months when our home build is scheduled to start. Weighing up if I should put some/all into crypto or just let it sit.
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I would be patient and wait for a clear sign of a trend reversal if you’re looking for a short term gain. I don’t think there is much more downside from these levels, but it could also crab sideways here for a few more weeks too before reversing. The Heikin Ashi candles on TradingView are a good way of monitoring trend changes; I would personally wait until it turns green on the weekly timeframe before investing for the short term. This is just my opinion though. As Owen said above though, this is crypto and it is volatile, so even if you are patient with waiting for a trend reversal it can easily change the other direction just as quick.
 
owen87 said:
Don't put money you need in to Crypto IMO, especially not when you need it in the short term and can't ride out the volatility long-term.
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Sorry probably don't need so much and would be putting some sell orders. There is room to play with though. Just gambling the size of the home loan really!
 

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Gak Attack said:
Sorry probably don't need so much and would be putting some sell orders. There is room to play with though. Just gambling the size of the home loan really!
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Personally I wouldn't be putting money I want to use in the short-term in to crypto. You could be the story of the person who put $100k in and the market went up 50% in a month, or you could be down 50% by the time you need it.

The risk of a substantial loss in the short-term is too high for the upside IMO, 3-4 months is too short a time-frame to make it worth risking.

I'm fairly conservative in my risk taking though, your willingness and parameters may vary.
 
Gak Attack said:
What are people's thoughts on turn around time on market and do you think there would be benefit to short term investment? I have a chunk in term deposit that matures shortly but will need most of it in roughly 3-4 months when our home build is scheduled to start. Weighing up if I should put some/all into crypto or just let it sit.
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I don't jump on here to comment often but I would be so careful doing this. This whole market could easily trainwreck over the next 3-4 months.
 
Gak Attack said:
What are people's thoughts on turn around time on market and do you think there would be benefit to short term investment? I have a chunk in term deposit that matures shortly but will need most of it in roughly 3-4 months when our home build is scheduled to start. Weighing up if I should put some/all into crypto or just let it sit.
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Well you can do that if you're happy to set very slim stop loss triggers when you do it.

If you had 10k and were happy to risk $500 in stop losses then you can take the punt and minimise the risks.

Chances are you might get stopped out a lot and often quickly and the $500 you were fine to lose whittles away quickly in a few trades.

However it means you can limit your losses to that $500 and if the market takes off then profit could be made.
 
MSB ROYS said:
BACCS Helped myself to a little more BC at $3.50 the other day...
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Very nice! I grabbed some at 3.80. First burn should happen in the next few days and they have a NFT platform called Edenhorde releasing tomorrow (Pentoshi has drove this project and just put up a long thread about it on CT).
 

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The Dice Man said:
I didn't realise you recieved them so quickly. You Dot is still locked for 2 years?
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They release slowly over the two years. Moonbeam said they'll release 30% when they launch.

Every project is different. And yes the DOT will remain locked until the end of the loan period.

I'll respond to your PM tomorrow.
 
BACCS said:
Interested to get your thoughts on this Evolved1 and anyone else that wants to join in. Do you think news events in crypto are just a way to explain a trend that was already starting to happen anyway?

If we take a look at 2021, prices had basically been on up only for 6 months and then news events like Elon Musk/Tesla selling and minining environmental FUD are used to explain the trend reversal in May. It's fairly clear that RSI was way overbought for quite a while and the trend had started to flatten out since mid March, it had simply lost buying momentum and investors had 6-8 weeks where they could have basically sold the top and taken decent profits. Up only for 6 months will always trigger some selling pressure eventually.

This is similar to what happened in early November 2021, where again a news event was used to try and explain the trend reversal (potential rate hikes in the US and Feds tempering inflation in 2022). However, it had again been basically up only mode for 4 months after the mini bear market during the middle months of the year and it gave investors a 2nd opportunity to sell at ATHs. Again, even if you didn't sell the high you had a clear sign of a trend reversal the following week that gave an exit opportunity at 65k.

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A pure technical analyst will claim that charts tell a story of what's to come irrespective of news. The common explanation is that news acts to push price in the direction and magnitude it was already heading, so BTC would have hit 29k irrespective of Elon's games. We had clear bearish divergences in RSI and volume during the first peak which hit 64k. Those factors, plus the shitcoin pumps had me cautious near enough to the top.

I found the second top harder to recognise initially. Looking back, the volume wasn't inspiring on the way up. I posted TA from others suggesting BTC would hit the high 30's when we were around 58k, so this dump wasn't unforeseen.

Charts/TA

Bitcoin last tested its Bull Market Support Band (20W SMA, 21W EMA) in late September, bouncing sharply to new ATHs the 2nd time it dipped there in a week. Right now, this support band is sitting between 50-52k. The reason price tends to bounce off here (if we are bullish) is because people have...
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As with most things in life, I view TA as being useful without telling the whole story. Having knowledge about economics and fundamentals can give you an edge over pure TA practitioners.

Pentoshi predicted this dump based on the changing economic landscape.

Many of the best chartists I know have shifted towards other areas of crypto like NFT's. It makes me feel like a boomer in this space.
 

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