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Cryptocurrency mega-thread

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Evolved1 said:
If they're holding something they consider worthless and going to zero, their strategy is counterintuitive.
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BACCS said:
I have no interest in shares so funnily enough, I don't post in threads about shares! Of course the monetary gains in crypto are attractive, but there are plenty of people that genuinely enjoy and are excited about the future of some of the technologies developed in crypto. I also enjoy discussions in the Merit Circle community that I am a part of and I've learned a lot from people in this community about more than just crypto.
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I Love You Hearts GIF by The Valentines


Nothing but love for y'all.

The framework of "crypto to the moon" is:
Predatory
Short-sighted
Unsustainable
Wasteful
Etc

Cryptographic tokens in a trust less environment are interesting.
 
Chief said:
I Love You Hearts GIF by The Valentines


Nothing but love for y'all.

The framework of "crypto to the moon" is:
Predatory
Short-sighted
Unsustainable
Wasteful
Etc

Cryptographic tokens in a trust less environment are interesting.
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Who knows if any or all coins will go to the moon. I just ensure I invest only what I can safely afford to lose, eg. I pay my mortgage off first and foremost and ensure I'm living comfortably first.
 
Chief said:
And yet it has taken huge plunges, wild swings.
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Which is standard for bitcoin and crypto. The swings will become less volatile as the industry matures.
Chief said:
How many other crypto products were mature in 2017? Bitcoin itself has how much more competition?

This is now old technology. It fails at everything it is trying to be, except a Ponzi scheme.
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Bitcoin had plenty of competition in 2017. If anything, it had more direct competition back then. The vast majority of alts are trying to compete with other alts rather than bitcoin.

Bitcoins value isn't primarily derived from tech.
Chief said:
And if people are buying it thinking they are going to corner the market and ride high, they are doing that on the hope that they can reduce the standard of living for future generations who have to pay more and more to buy tokens to take part in the economy.

If it does what it's boosters want it to do, it'll be a catastrophe for the majority of people in future.

Ownership of these tokens is concentrated in few hands.
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I don't see bitcoin or other crypto being universally used, certainly not for a long time anyway. Look at something like amazon for comparison. Initially ownership was heavily concentrated and over time it became more diverse.

What scenario are you seeing as catastrophic?
Chief said:
Why would crypto follow ANY other path than the rest of the economy in asset concentration - at a much higher rate than any other asset?

1% of the US population own 32% of the wealth. What brain-fever has caused anyone to think it would be any different in crypto?

"But I got in early" - they will figure out a way to take it from you.

And people complain about boomers and housing affordability. What crypto bros are cheering on would be far worse.
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Adoption should theoretically lead to less concentration of ownership.

How will they take your bitcoin from you?

Among the largest and wealthiest holders, you have Microstrategy holding nearly 130k BTC at an average price of $30,000 US. Tesla are in the same boat, currently holding at a loss.

As of today, you can purchase bitcoin for $19k which puts you in a better position than some large global corporations.

You're not making a coherent argument. On one hand, you claim it's all going to zero. On the other hand, you're arguing a scenario with wealth concentration that only works if price rises in the future.

You're better off picking one position and arguing from that pov rather than taking both angles.

btc holdings.JPG
 

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Evolved1 said:
More adoption and users should add further liquidity and theoretically act as a buffer of sorts.
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So more money from new buyers will allow existing owners to make money?

Interesting. I wonder if there's a name for that sort of scheme?
 
Evolved1 said:
Same as share market or property. Do you consider them ponzis?
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I've been over it a few times. At the risk of boring everyone even further: no. They do not fit the definition of Ponzi schemes.
 
Chief said:
I've been over it a few times. At the risk of boring everyone even further: no. They do not fit the definition of Ponzi schemes.
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You've been over it a few times but I'm not convinced.

Apart from regulation, how is crypto any different to shares?

  1. They're both assets.
  2. They're both traded in a liquid market.
  3. They both have supply and demand.
  4. The value of both is the price that someone else is prepared to pay you for it at the current point in time.
  5. Both can be highly speculative and based on highly optimistic forecast earnings.
  6. Both can be based on actual earnings or more realistic forecasts (I.e. shares based on earnings of the company and crypto based on fees generated from user adoption of the platform)
 

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LongBombFromOutside50 said:
crypto based on fees generated from user adoption of the platform
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If you could show me where this happens that would clear up a lot of this. Right now it's scam after scam offering ludicrously high returns based off of magic thinking.

The CEO of FTX explains it best in the clip I posted.

Put utility-free tokens in the magic box and some drip out the other side based on a fairy tale of adoption by BIG BIDNEZ! But the magic only continues if you believe it. Once people stop believing, the money dries up and the creators of the magic token and box disappear.

Believe Korean Drama GIF by The Swoon
 
Chief said:
If you could show me where this happens that would clear up a lot of this. Right now it's scam after scam offering ludicrously high returns based off of magic thinking.

The CEO of FTX explains it best in the clip I posted.

Put utility-free tokens in the magic box and some drip out the other side based on a fairy tale of adoption by BIG BIDNEZ! But the magic only continues if you believe it. Once people stop believing, the money dries up and the creators of the magic token and box disappear.

Believe Korean Drama GIF by The Swoon
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With all due respect Chief, I only invest in Bitcoin, and Bitcoin has proven to be a strong, reliable asset for 13 years now! Many companies are formed and liquidated in far less time than that, leaving shareholders with their tails between their legs!
 
WaywardSonSon said:
Bitcoin has proven to be a strong, reliable asset for 13 years now!
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You really should read some books about risk and trading. I won't make you an expert but it will help.

If you shorted every downturn of Bitcoin you would have been holding a risk for a lot shorter time for the same or better return.
 
Chief said:
If you could show me where this happens that would clear up a lot of this. Right now it's scam after scam offering ludicrously high returns based off of magic thinking.

The CEO of FTX explains it best in the clip I posted.

Put utility-free tokens in the magic box and some drip out the other side based on a fairy tale of adoption by BIG BIDNEZ! But the magic only continues if you believe it. Once people stop believing, the money dries up and the creators of the magic token and box disappear.

Believe Korean Drama GIF by The Swoon
Click to expand...

I'm not denying that there are scams in the space. It's the wild west compared to shares, so investors need to DYOR before investing anything.

With regards to fees from using a crypto platform -
Ethereum (or any other L1 blockchain) is the best example of this. It has thousands of applications built on it. Applications / users needs to pay a "gas fee" in ether in order to send a transaction onto the blockchain. So more applications built and more people using the Ethereum blockchain means higher gas fees, more transactions and as a result the price of Ether goes up because users need to buy Ether to pay for gas. So it earns fees for everything done on the network.

If you shorted every downturn of Bitcoin you would have been holding a risk for a lot shorter time for the same or better return.
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But downtrends (or bear markets) have historically lasted ~1 year and retraced 85%, uptrends (or bull markets) have historically lated ~3 years and gone up 1,000% - 10,000%...
 
LongBombFromOutside50 said:
You've been over it a few times but I'm not convinced.

Apart from regulation, how is crypto any different to shares?

  1. They're both assets.
  2. They're both traded in a liquid market.
  3. They both have supply and demand.
  4. The value of both is the price that someone else is prepared to pay you for it at the current point in time.
  5. Both can be highly speculative and based on highly optimistic forecast earnings.
  6. Both can be based on actual earnings or more realistic forecasts (I.e. shares based on earnings of the company and crypto based on fees generated from user adoption of the platform)
Click to expand...

'Apart from regulation' is a pretty big deal.

4. The liquid value, yes. If the market dictates that a share that pays a $1 dividend is worth $1 or $10 that dividend is still paid.
5. Forecast earnings are not the same as forecast increase in share price. You can't float a company on the basis of 'if enough people invest the share price will go up and that will encourage more people to invest'.
6. This is pretty wishful thinking. Crypto still always comes back to new money in -> value of the token up. The market has always been BTC dominant and those 'coins' don't earn anything.
 
Another real world application of NFTs: MetaBrewSociety

For any beer lovers, this basically gives you a beer pass for life! 160-240 cans of beer each year sent to you for free (sent in quarterly batches) for each NFT owned (they also cover shipping costs), part ownership in the German brewery (it's an existing brewery that has already been purchased), fully doxxed team, 3 day free event each year at Oktoberfest and plans to open up stores in other countries. NFT mint will be within the next month or two. They already have a shop on their website that you can purchase 3 of their beers to try out for 10 Euros.

I would maybe spend a couple of hundred bucks at least on buying beer cartons across a year, so these NFTs will pay themselves off fairly quickly.
 

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Scotland said:
'Apart from regulation' is a pretty big deal.

4. The liquid value, yes. If the market dictates that a share that pays a $1 dividend is worth $1 or $10 that dividend is still paid.
5. Forecast earnings are not the same as forecast increase in share price. You can't float a company on the basis of 'if enough people invest the share price will go up and that will encourage more people to invest'.
6. This is pretty wishful thinking. Crypto still always comes back to new money in -> value of the token up. The market has always been BTC dominant and those 'coins' don't earn anything.
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4. Likewise, even though Solana is $36 and not $200+, you still earn a 7% yield p.a. from staking it.
5. If you take a punt on a low-cap resources stock, you're betting that the company will discover something and that will encourage more buyers. If you take a punt on a low-cap altcoin, you're betting that it will have large growth in adoption and that will encourage more buying volume (ref. my initial post about ethereum).
6. This one I still don't get. New money in = higher demand. Higher demand = value of the token up (provided supply stays constant). Again, this is the same for property, shares and all other assets, is it not? Yes BTC doesnt earn anything, I agree. Neither does gold though.
 
So when do ya'll believe the true Bitcoin bottom is coming?
 

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