Crystal Ball

[CaptainDangerfield]

As it's yet another slow news day I thought I would do a little crystal balling.

2004 AFL ladder at the end of the minor round:

Port
Bris
St K
Geel
Melb
Syd
WC
Ess
Freo
Nth Melb
Carlt
Adel
Coll
Bulld
Hawth
Richm


My predicted ladder at the end of 2005 minor rounds:

Port
St K
Geel
Bris
WC
Freo
Melbo
Syd
Kangas
Esse
WB
Coll
Carl
Hawth
Rich


Moving Up:

St K - The kids will benefit from a solid 2004 finals campaign,
Geel - See St K, add Ottens, possible top 2,
WC - Will become the best field midfield in the comp, if they're not already, add Gardner,
Freo - Additions of Carr, Black and Schofield will add to the midfield, especially Carr. Move PAV to CHF or FF.
Western Bulldogs - Slight move up the ladder with and an A class coach,
Kangas - Could be a surprise packet in 2005, may even make the 8. Wells/Motlop/Harris are all class. Petrie 2005 should be better than 2004. Addition of a Kpp ( Thomson ) could push them into the 8.

Going Down:

Brisba - The loss of Lynch, Hart and McRae ( Bradshaw toi cover Lynch ) will not have a major impact, missing Black and Brown for the 1st 5 games will. Small slide.
Essendon - 2 of their 3 best players ( Hird and Fletcher ) are now into their 30's and have battered bodies. Don't see much talent in their list of youngsters.
Carlton - Poor list. Played above themselves in 2004.
Melbourne - Small drop, but could be a genuine chance come finals,
Sydney - small drop.

Same Same:

Port - Top again Carr, Hardwick is a huge loss. Primus and Francou will more than cover it. Last chance before old man age catches up. Despite what Port supporters think, having 9-11 players in your starting 22 over the age of 28 ( 8 over 30 ) should be ringing alarm bells after 2005.
Coll - The unknown
Rich - Beware - "Renovations" under way,
Hawth - see rich

I purposely left Adelaide out as I don't want to put the mockers on us.

Thoughts???

 

[portentous]

How do you run with crystal balls?

For mine Car and Coll above WB. Kangas much lower down due to their retirements. Crows somewhere in the middle of it all........

 

[Alex99]

1) St Kilda
2) Fremantle
3) Geelong
4) Port Adelaide
5) Brisbane
6) Melbourne
7) West Coast
8) Adelaide


9) Essendon
10) Sydney
11) Carlton
12) Collingwood
13) North Melbourne
14) West Bulldogs
15) Hawthorn
16) Richmond

Grand finalists Geelong Vs. St Kilda

With the addition of Josh Carr and Heath Black, Fremantle will be the huge improvers and play to their potential that they showed in 2003. But will miss the GF


Age and injury will slow Port down but their overall talented list will still allow them to finish top 4.

The Adelaide football club will hopefully win (8-10) home game and a few on the road (2-4), allowing for that 8ths spot in the finals.

 

[noddy]

1. St Kilda. Have to do it this year no excuses.
2. West Coast. Will make a bold bid for glory
3. Port Adelaide. Will look the goods for most of the year until their ageing old guard start to succumb to injury.
4. Geelong. next year catters just one more year.

5. Brisbane.
6. Adelaide.
7. Fremantle
8. Collingwood


9. Essendon
10. Sydney
11. Melbourne
12. Carlton
13. Richmond
14. North Melbourne
15. Hawthorn
16. West Bulldogs

Saints to win GF over a dissapointing Eagles.

 

[- PC -]

Port
St K
Geel
Bris
WC
Freo
Melbo
Syd
Kangas
Esse
WB
Coll
Carl
Hawth
Rich

I wont go a ladder as there can be variables which will change eg. % so I will group the teams (if thats ok)

Port,Saints should finish 1-2

Then the next group 3-7 should have (in no particular order)

Brisbane, West Coast,Geelong, Fremantle and Carlton
I think Carlton are the team to watch, the players believe in the coach and more importantly they believe in themselves(thanks to that game at AAMI)

8-12

Adelaide,Sydney,Collingwood, Melbourne and Essendon
These could all swap around and % will determine 8th spot and a game between 8-12

13-16

Kangaroos,Bulldogs, Richmond and Hawthorn

I think Hawthorn will struggle while Richmond will improve but lose more games through learning a game plan and the Kanagroos to struggle with the loss of a few inspirational players

 

[sapaul]

West Coast
Brisbane
St.Kilda
Port
Adelaide
Essendon
Carlton
Kangaroos


Richmond
Sydney
Fremantle
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Collingwood

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

How do you run with crystal balls?

For mine Car and Coll above WB. Kangas much lower down due to their retirements. Crows somewhere in the middle of it all........

Very carefully...

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Very carefully...

Delicately I would have thought.

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Delicately I would have thought.

That too...

 

[macca23]

1. St Kilda. Cornflakes might be made to look a good coach this year.
2. West Coast. The team on the rise.
3. Port Adelaide. Will still be good but not the best.
4. Geelong. Don't quite have the team for the flag

5. Fremantle. Their cattle gets stronger and stronger but they don't quite have it.
6. Brisbane. Not quite as good and might just have an average start to the year
7. Adelaide. As good as it gets for us, given limited injury only.
8. Sydney. Will be around the mark, but no chance for the flag.


9. Essendon. Always around the middle of the pack.
10. Melbourne. Surprised last year and expect the real Melbourne this year.
11. Carlton. Honest scrappers and could be much higher than this spot.
12. Collingwood. Malthouse appears to have gone to the Ayres school of list management.
13. Richmond. Wallace will improve them but it will take time.
14. North Melbourne. Have lost good players and still have Laidley.
15. Western Bulldogs. Eade will improve them but it will take time once again.
16. Hawthorn. Almost guaranteed for last spot.

 

[tribey]

1. Port Adelaide. Greater depth and two 'new recruits' in Primus and Francou will more than offset the losses of Carr and Schofield.

2. St. Kilda. They will be terrifying at times this season, but you need more than just energetic youth and raw talent to win consistently and win premierships. Experience and polish is invaluable as St. Kilda learned last year, and Collingwood learned before them.

3. West Coast. If they and their cross-town cousins can bring the House of Pain back they will both be top four threats. With Gardiner back (but for how long?) and added to Cox, Glass and Seaby, the Coasters have finally solved their lack of tall talent. Combined with their abundant midfield, no real weaknesses anywhere now.

4. Geelong. The kids are a year older, the defence is still as mean as ever and Kent Kingsley and Stephen King finally have some support in Brad Ottens.

5. Melbourne. Uh-oh... an odd-numbered year. Unlike previous years when Melbourne have come from the clouds to make finals, Neale Daniher is now in charge of a more even and well-rounded team. Quite simply, the Dees have winners in every department now, and don't rely on a gifted few. It remains to be seen how the club will come out of the blocks following the well-documented tragedy that has befallen them.

6. Brisbane. Lynch, Hart, McRae, Pike, gone. Black and Brown miss the first three and five weeks of the season respectively. The aura of invincibility the Lions enjoyed over the past couple of seasons has evaporated and is the hunger still there? What more can Lethal say to them? 'Ah well, we'll win the next one'? The Gabba sanctuary will supply them with enough wins to keep them in contention, it's the roadshow which will see them struggle.

7. Fremantle. The additions of Josh Carr and Heath Black will give them much-needed grunt in the middle, while the coast to coast ball-carrying and linking of Schofield will provide them with the sort of drive they've lacked since Matthew Carr embarked on his 2004 injury nightmare. Still, with Polak and Pavlich's development stalling they're about where West Coast were last year.

8. Essendon. Hird and Lloyd are worth 10-12 wins alone. If the usual supporting cast and a few of the promising kids (Bradley, Watson) can take the next step they'll be there or there abouts as always.
_______________

9. Kangaroos. Will strike the doubters down and push hard for the eight but just fail. Big years must come from Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Corey McKernan and Nathan Thompson, while the young brigade must come on as expected.

10. Sydney. Barry Hall - the Big Bad Bustling Barometer. If he reproduces his own personal 2004 they'll still struggle to live up to the finishes of the past couple of seasons, especially with Maxfield and Williams that extra year older. If he flops they'll turn in a shocker.

11. Carlton. Pagan's magic is still at work, but the young Blues still seem a good two years off finals footy. Having said that, If Fevola can find some consistency and Whitnall can effect a revival of his fortunes, they'd have just about the best 1-2 punch in the caper along with the Saints. More rebuilding and learning to be done.

12. Collingwood. Hmmm. Chad Morrison? Blake Caracella? Handy, but not the cattle they needed. A real ruckman to take over from Josh, a real CHF to support Taz and a real CHB to support Clement are needed before the Pies can start to think about reaching the dizzy heights of 02 and 03.

13. Adelaide. We all knew it, but the Adelaide Football Club finally learned that talk is cheap in season 2004. Still a work in progress like every other club that missed the eight last year - could surprise, could flop again.

14. Richmond. They still suffer from the age-old Punt Road problem of 5 or 6 excellent chiefs, far too many sh#thouse indians. But, 5 draft picks in the top 20 has already seen an infectious enthusiasm take hold of the place, and with L'Effet Plough already out of the blocks and running, the Tigers will be on the way up, if only slowly.

15. Western Bulldogs. Think St. Kilda under Blight. Heaps of kids, a few aging stars, finally in possession of a decent coach - but still 2-3 years away from being threateningly competitive.

16. Hawthorn. Brown and yellow on the guernsey, brown and yellow on the teamsheet - the most dire squad since Fitzroy. Should pick up the wooden spoon they were so desperately unlucky to miss out on last year despite all their hard work.

 

[Stiffy_18]

1. Port Adelaide. Greater depth and two 'new recruits' in Primus and Francou will more than offset the losses of Carr and Schofield.

While I agree that both Francou and Primus are exceptional players I think its not a given that they will come good and cover the loss of Carr and Harwick. Francou hasn't kicked the footy in anger for 2 years and Primus has had an injury riddled 2003 and missed virtually all of 2004. Both exceptional players when up and running but it remains to be seen how they come back from knee reconstructions.

6. Brisbane. Lynch, Hart, McRae, Pike, gone.

I thought he was still around

 

[macca23]

5. Melbourne. Uh-oh... an odd-numbered year. Unlike previous years when Melbourne have come from the clouds to make finals, Neale Daniher is now in charge of a more even and well-rounded team. Quite simply, the Dees have winners in every department now, and don't rely on a gifted few. It remains to be seen how the club will come out of the blocks following the well-documented tragedy that has befallen them.



9. Kangaroos. Will strike the doubters down and push hard for the eight but just fail. Big years must come from Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Corey McKernan and Nathan Thompson, while the young brigade must come on as expected.


13. Adelaide. We all knew it, but the Adelaide Football Club finally learned that talk is cheap in season 2004. Still a work in progress like every other club that missed the eight last year - could surprise, could flop again.

Nice work on that post DT.

The 3 I quoted above are the only ones I was at any major odds with you, although we are talking about subjective opinions and not facts.

Melbourne I have half gone with the odd year theory, and half gone with my opinion that to some degree they over-achieved last year, which is why I had them dropping down to 10 as opposed to your 5. Logically, you are probably closer to the mark, but I'll stick with my hunch on them - for now.

Kangaroos Honest team that don't excite me. They're gradually losing all the long-term past strength of the club, they have no money, no facilities, and still have Laidley. Not for me.

Adelaide The 64 dollar question. My 7th versus your 13th. Admittedly mine is at best and yours is probably at worst, so if they finish 10th we'll break even on this one.

If we do finish 13th, the appointment of Neil Craig is going to look very very ordinary.

 

[- PC -]

If we do finish 13th, the appointment of Neil Craig is going to look very very ordinary.

Only if it is an ordinarily filled ordinary

I think if there are signs for the future then 13th can look ok ..eg narrow losses/injuries etc

But if its bad coaching/game plan then yes you can

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Only if it is an ordinarily filled ordinary

I think if there are signs for the future then 13th can look ok ..eg narrow losses/injuries etc

But if its bad coaching/game plan then yes you can

Lets not go down that road just yet.

 

[drakeyv2]

If we do finish 13th, the appointment of Neil Craig is going to look very very ordinary.

I don't accept that is true. He is re-making the side. I think that there is a lot of dead wood in the playing list that hasn't been cut because they were under contract. Honestly, ask yourselves how many of our players would make the premier's side. Being generous I can think of maybe 3. When you can name about 10 then we will be around the place.

I would be surprised if we make the 8 in the next 2 years, & in the long run, our playing list would be much better off if we finished 13th than 7th.

The real question is how will the supporters handle it if we finish down the bottom again?

By then the media would have turned. Rucchi and McDermott would be pretending they thought Craig was the wrong man the whole time & Cornes would be going out of his mind with joy at the prospect of bagging both coach & club.

How do the supporters act then? Do we show a bit of test match patence & accept you may lose a session or 2 & still win the match during the 5th day, or are we 20/20 supporters who can only think short term.

I hope we have the maturity to think long term. The club have given itself an almighty shake up off season & we must give them the time for their changes to bare fruit.

 

[captain ebert]

good post dyertribe.

adelaide 4th & 6th for some? i dont know if thats just being blatantly partisan - 4th for you guys is a bit rich at this stage for mine.

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

1. St Kilda. THE team on the rise packed full of absolute A class talent on most lines. Will win a flag in next 2-3 years

2. Port Adelaide. Big home ground advantage, excellent depth, talented youngsters putting pressure on the 22 and Primus and Francou back

3. West Coast. Immense home ground advantage, huge depth for quality midfielders/smalls, talls should be better in 2005

4. Brisbane. Write them off at your own peril - Michael, Leppa, Johnson, Brown, Aker, Voss, Black, Lappin - wouldnt be surprised if they make another GF but could start the season slowly with injuries/suspensions

5. Geelong - very even team with much natural improvement still to come from the many youngsters. If still had Graham would be top 4

6. Fremantle - will be the big improver. Need to bounce back after poor year (still finished 9th) in 2004. Carr, Schofield and Black are 3 ready made players - more than any other team

7. Collingwood - you dont make 2 GFs in a row without some talent. Will rebound in 2005

8. Essendon - a consistent finalist year after year. With Hird, Lloyd, Fletcher and Lucas still going and some talented youngsters they will scrape in again


9. Melbourne - could quite possibly make the 8 and will be in contention until late in the year. Query over a few KPP's

10. Sydney - have over achieved in recent years and due for a downer

11. Adelaide - could make the 8 if all goes well.

12. Western Bulldogs - I dont mind their list. A toppish shelf of 5-6 playes plus Cooney, Ray, Griffin and other talented youngsters

13. Kangaroos - in for a couple of quieter years with many of the old guard gone/going

14. Carlton - excellent coach, ordinary squad

15. Richmond - will be better. Possibly 7-8 wins for the year

16. Hawthorn - a very ordinary squad. The tall 2004 recruits will have no impact for another 2-3 years

 

[GrandfinalGurus]

I don't accept that is true. He is re-making the side. I think that there is a lot of dead wood in the playing list that hasn't been cut because they were under contract. Honestly, ask yourselves how many of our players would make the premier's side. Being generous I can think of maybe 3. When you can name about 10 then we will be around the place.

I would be surprised if we make the 8 in the next 2 years, & in the long run, our playing list would be much better off if we finished 13th than 7th.

The real question is how will the supporters handle it if we finish down the bottom again?

By then the media would have turned. Rucchi and McDermott would be pretending they thought Craig was the wrong man the whole time & Cornes would be going out of his mind with joy at the prospect of bagging both coach & club.

How do the supporters act then? Do we show a bit of test match patence & accept you may lose a session or 2 & still win the match during the 5th day, or are we 20/20 supporters who can only think short term.

I hope we have the maturity to think long term. The club have given itself an almighty shake up off season & we must give them the time for their changes to bare fruit.

Excellent Post! Couldn't agree with you more, only thing is I couldn't give a Flying Fornication as to what the media think these days, too many personal agenda's involved. As far as the Supporters and Club are concerned, we don't want to become the next Richmond, a laughing stock littered with EX coaches

 

[captain ebert]

1. Port
2. St Kilda
3. Geelong
4. Brisbane
5. West Coast
6. Fremantle
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
9. Sydney
10. Adelaide
11. Richmond
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Carlton
14. Collingwood
15. Hawthorn
16. Kangaroos

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

Excellent Post! Couldn't agree with you more, only thing is I couldn't give a Flying Fornication as to what the media think these days, too many personal agenda's involved. As far as the Supporters and Club are concerned, we don't want to become the next Richmond, a laughing stock littered with EX coaches

I agree - good post drakeyv2

 

[Stiffy_18]

I don't accept that is true. He is re-making the side. I think that there is a lot of dead wood in the playing list that hasn't been cut because they were under contract. Honestly, ask yourselves how many of our players would make the premier's side. Being generous I can think of maybe 3. When you can name about 10 then we will be around the place.

I would be surprised if we make the 8 in the next 2 years, & in the long run, our playing list would be much better off if we finished 13th than 7th.

The real question is how will the supporters handle it if we finish down the bottom again?

By then the media would have turned. Rucchi and McDermott would be pretending they thought Craig was the wrong man the whole time & Cornes would be going out of his mind with joy at the prospect of bagging both coach & club.

How do the supporters act then? Do we show a bit of test match patence & accept you may lose a session or 2 & still win the match during the 5th day, or are we 20/20 supporters who can only think short term.

I hope we have the maturity to think long term. The club have given itself an almighty shake up off season & we must give them the time for their changes to bare fruit.

Exceptional Post.

Nail. Hammer. Head

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

I want to know who are all these "promising youngsters" Essendon are supposed to have? Bock/Smith were once classed as "promising youngsters".

 

[Stiffy_18]

I want to know where are all these "promising youngsters" Essendon are supposed to have are? Bock/Smith were once classed as "promising youngsters".

I wouldn't minf the likes of Bradley, Laycock, Stanton, Watson and Monfries at the Crows

I reckon that Welsh kid goes alright too

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

I wouldn't minf the likes of Bradley, Laycock, Stanton, Watson and Monfries at the Crows

I reckon that Welsh kid goes alright too

If we are including Bradley/Laycock/Monfries in the list of PY then we're laughing as we can include The Count, Gibson, Meeson, Krueger, Maric, Schuie, Watts, Knights in our list. While I agree Stanton and Watson have shown something, Bradley hasn't been overly impressive and Monfries is yet to play an AFL game.
Every teams supporters exagerates their list of PY's. Until a player has at least played a few games, and shown something, they shouldn't be classed as a PY IMO. Just look at the multiple 2nd tiers on our list, I have heard each and everyone of them described as a PY in the past???