Analysis Current values for each player on the Carlton List

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The Old Dark Navy's

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I mentioned in another thread recently, that a lot of our players are better than their current values on the open market. Of course the variables include age, contract, injury history, character and position played.

Going through our list, I have applied current values to each player. These are based on what I believe other clubs might be willing to pay and what I'd be happy to pay for these players if I was wanting to bring them into our team, and applying a little bit of precedent from memory.

I have included what we paid for the player (simplified for some of the more intricate trades), current value and whether that players stocks are on the rise. Injury can affect current value but for some players that value is trending up by virtue of the fact that the player has talent, was formerly worth more and is over the injury or nearly over the injury.

Some older players have no value, not because they aren't good players but because they are older players with not much time left in the game. Some younger players are worth less than what we paid, simply based on the new car theory that it loses value as soon as you drive it off the lot. You will find those players might have less current value but I consider them to be trending up in value.

The point of the exercise? Well, some players are not worth trading out unless we can raise their worth or get more than their current worth for them. The more players we can pump value into, the better off we are in future drafts when we have too much depth to play. Premiership sides for example, have a heap of value in those sides, probably more than some players are truly worth. There is no reason why we can't start to have success, and cash in on that success with increased draft currency to keep the next generation coming from underneath. Sustained success!

I know people are going to disagree with my assessment of some players and substitute their own. This is a good thing. Feel free to question my choices, ask me to explain and discuss your own values so we can get a consensus.

1. Jack Silvagni - Carlton paid: #53 - Current worth: Late 2nd rounder - Trending up
2. Paddy Dow - Carlton paid: #3 - Current worth: Late 2nd round - Trending Up
4. Lochie O'Brien - Carlton paid: #10 - Current worth: 4th round - Nil - Trending up
6. Zac Williams - Carlton paid: Expensive free agent - Current worth: 2nd rounder - Trending Up
7. Matt Kennedy - Carlton paid: #28 - Current worth: 3rd round - Trending Up
8. Lachie Fogarty - Carlton paid: 3rd round* - Current worth: 3rd round - Not trending
9. Patrick Cripps - Carlton paid: #13 - Current worth: Top 10 pick - Trending Down
10. Harry McKay - Carlton paid: #10 - Current worth: 2 1st round picks - Trending Up
11. Mitch McGovern - Carlton paid: 2 2nd round picks- Current worth: Late 2nd round/early 3rd - Trending Down
12. Tom De Koning - Carlton paid: #30 - Current worth: Late 1st/Early 2nd round - Trending Up
13. Liam Stocker - Carlton paid: #19 - Current worth: Mid 2nd round - Trending Up
15. Sam Docherty - Carlton paid: #33 - Current worth: Not Applicable - No trend
16. Jack Carroll - Carlton paid: #41 - Current worth: 3rd rounder - Trending Up
17. Brodie Kemp - Carlton paid: #16 - Current worth: Late 2nd round - Trending Up
18. Sam Walsh - Carlton paid: #1 - Current worth: Top 5 pick and Top 10 pick - Trending Up
20. Lachie Plowman - Carlton paid: #28* - Current worth: Early 3rd round - Trending Down
21. Jack Martin - Carlton paid: PSD Expensive salary - Current worth: Late 2nd round - Not trending
22. Caleb Marchbank - Carlton paid: #19* - Current worth: Nil - Trending down
23. Jacob Weitering - Carlton paid: #1 - Current worth: 2 top 10 picks - Trending Up
24. Nic Newman - Carlton paid: Future 4th round - Current worth: Late 3rd round - Not trending
25. Zac Fisher - Carlton paid: #27 - Current worth: Late 2nd/Early 3rd round - Trending Down
26. Luke Parks - Carlton paid: Rookie pick - Current worth - Nil - Not trending
27. Marc Pittonet - Carlton paid: #54* - Current worth: 3rd round - Not trending
28. David Cuningham - Carlton paid #23 - Current worth: 4th rounder - Not trending
29. Corey Durdin - Carlton paid #37 - Current worth: 3rd rounder - Trending up
30. Charlie Curnow - Carlton paid #8 - Current worth: Early 2nd rounder - Trending Up
31. Tom Williamson - Carlton paid #61 - Current worth: late 3rd rounder - Not trending
32. Jack Newnes - Carlton paid: Delisted free agent - Current worth: Nil - Trending Down
34. Sam Philp - Carlton paid: #20 - Current worth - 4th round - Trending Down
35. Ed Curnow - Carlton paid: Rookie Pick - Current worth: Nil - Trending Down
36. Josh Honey - Carlton paid: Rookie Pick - Current worth: 3rd round - Trending Up
37. Jordan Boyd - Carlton paid: SSP Pick - Current worth: Nil - Not trending
39. Oscar McDonald - Carlton paid: SSP Pick - Current worth: Nil - Not trending
42. Adam Saad - Carlton paid: #8 - Current worth: Late 1st/Early 2nd - Trending down
43. Will Setterfield - Carlton paid: 2nd and 3rd round - Current worth: Late 3rd - Trending Down
44. Matt Owies - Carlton paid: Rookie pick - Current worth: 4th rounder - Trending Up
45. Alex Mirkov - Carlton paid: Midseason Draft - Current worth: Nil - Not trending
47. Matthew Cottrell - Carlton paid: SSP - Current worth - Nil - Not trending
Adam Cerra - Carlton paid: Pick 6* - Current worth: Top 10 picks - Trending Up
George Hewett - Carlton paid: Free Agent - Current worth: 2nd round - Not trending
Lewis Young - Carlton paid: Petrevski-Seton - Current worth: 3rd round - Trending Up
Jesse Motlop - Carlton paid #27 - Current worth: N/A - No trend
Dom Akuei - NGA Cat B rookie - Current worth: N/A - No trend

*Other picks or players involved
 
Don't want to get into a slanging match, but I think you've overvalued many of our players. If they truly were on the trade table many of them would be worth little to nothing after this season. That will hopefully change soon but value is based on perception and perception for many isn't good.

Some like McGovern, Martin and Williams are probably worth far less than we think because of their inflated contracts.
 

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gandaal said:
Don't want to get into a slanging match, but I think you've overvalued many of our players. If they truly were on the trade table many of them would be worth little to nothing after this season. That will hopefully change soon but value is based on perception and perception for many isn't good.

Some like McGovern, Martin and Williams are probably worth far less than we think because of their inflated contracts.
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All good. I asked for differing opinions.

When you look at their values though, I have those 3 players valued at picks in the 30s and 40s. I don't see Williams or Martin being devalued lower than that with their skillset and Gov would get interest based on his position, kicking skills and athleticism alone ... for the right team.

I have heaps of players worth nothing that other teams would pick up as DFAs. I mean, even 30 year old Casboult got picked up on the back of a broken down season. Most of our players are still young and have some decent exposed form.
 
If I understand this correctly, you're saying that Sam Walsh can be obtained for just two Top 10 picks (of which one must be a Top 5) ........ I think you'd find 17 clubs banging on your door to make that trade.
 
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nickcat0 said:
If I understand this correctly, you're saying that Sam Walsh can be obtained for just two Top 10 picks (of which one must be a Top 5) ........ I think you'd find 17 clubs banging on your door to make that trade.
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This isn't what Walsh is worth to us, it is more what would be offered if Walsh wanted to leave. I understand he is a Pick 1 who has exceeded his value already but how would a team even gain two number 1 picks? Who has ever received an offer like that? Judd was 3, 20 and Kennedy whose value had fallen from his initial Pick 4 and we received a pick in the 40s back. I'm trying to look realistically at what we could get, not that we would even contemplate it.
 
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Metalcrusher said:
20. Lachie Plowman - Carlton paid: #28* - Current worth: Early 3rd round - Trending Down

Not enough love for the plow.
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What do you think other clubs would give for Plow? He's 27, he has reached his ceiling.
 
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Metalcrusher said:
Late second at the very worst.
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Late second ... early third. Not much in it. If you asked on other team boards, I reckon you'll hear a lot worse.
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
Late second ... early third. Not much in it. If you asked on other team boards, I reckon you'll hear a lot worse.
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For sure, until it comes time to do the trade and the actual trade gets done.
 
Reading through that list shows how hard it is to rate anything except at the time of trade.

Example, if Mcgovern is in contract this year on 650k then he is worthless trade wise. If Mcgovern was front ended and now on 350k this year then there is some residual trade value for him. Then after that you have to take into account is he trying to leave or stay, and then take into account half a seasons formline if he has it (He doesn’t).

McGovern right now is really only marginally and just marginally better than SPS. But by round 12 next year…well who knows.

If it’s just a spitballing exercise then all looks good value wise. In practice, there would be huge variation at the point in time.
 
Defended Plow often and vociferously however, a second round pick is seriously Navy Blue coloured glasses, something I hear regularly. No one in the AFL is paying a second for Plow. Third at best, I’ve heard others value Honey at a second. Or LOB at a first. Please.

We rate them on potential, nostalgia and hope. Elsewhere they are rated in a much more balanced fashion and the truth probably falls somewhere in between.
 

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The Old Dark Navy's said:
What do you think other clubs would give for Plow? He's 27, he has reached his ceiling.
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There are players of a comparable talent signed up as DFA's these days. Obvioisly I think we'd be mad to delist him but if he wanted out...

Not only is he 27 but he comes with no finals experience and an injury history. He's a classic case of a player being worth much more to the club than he is on the market.
 
BigBreakfast said:
Defended Plow often and vociferously however, a second round pick is seriously Navy Blue coloured glasses, something I hear regularly. No one in the AFL is paying a second for Plow. Third at best, I’ve heard others value Honey at a second. Or LOB at a first. Please.

We rate them on potential, nostalgia and hope. Elsewhere they are rated in a much more balanced fashion and the truth probably falls somewhere in between.
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There are three types of player rare match winners or A graders | Good role players and list cloggers.
It takes a few years of development to see which drafted players become match winners ( rare) or 'just' good role players not as common as people think or list cloggers - Carlton is about to dump a few of these types at the end of next year.

The draft forces clubs to be realistic about where the various players on their list fit.

The price any other Club cares to pay for any of the above type of player is simple too.

Match winner = minimum first rounder and fat cheque and the younger the higher the price ( eg Cerra)
Good role player is first rounder to early second rounder and decent cheque (eg hewwett/ martin/ williams/ saad types)
the rest are worth nothing - we see this every year eg for Carlton this year SPS managed to get Carlton a third rounder.

Young players who show signs that they can match it with developed AFL bodies are worth hanging on to and are a shame to lose - I put Honey/Cuningham/Kennedy/Pittonet/TDK/Durdin/Kemp/Stocker all in that same bracket
and have high hopes for Carrol/Philp/

Plowman /Ed/ Newnes/Newman are all experienced AFL players - they are role players -each have their limitations - and they are worth less and less each year they age - but once they have been on the list for long enough - they are proven minimum standard guys the younger guys have to knock out.

Everyone judges players differently.
 
JustaBattler said:
There are three types of player rare match winners or A graders | Good role players and list cloggers.
It takes a few years of development to see which drafted players become match winners ( rare) or 'just' good role players not as common as people think or list cloggers - Carlton is about to dump a few of these types at the end of next year.

The draft forces clubs to be realistic about where the various players on their list fit.

The price any other Club cares to pay for any of the above type of player is simple too.

Match winner = minimum first rounder and fat cheque and the younger the higher the price ( eg Cerra)
Good role player is first rounder to early second rounder and decent cheque (eg hewwett/ martin/ williams/ saad types)
the rest are worth nothing - we see this every year eg for Carlton this year SPS managed to get Carlton a third rounder.

Young players who show signs that they can match it with developed AFL bodies are worth hanging on to and are a shame to lose - I put Honey/Cuningham/Kennedy/Pittonet/TDK/Durdin/Kemp/Stocker all in that same bracket
and have high hopes for Carrol/Philp/

Plowman /Ed/ Newnes/Newman are all experienced AFL players - they are role players -each have their limitations - and they are worth less and less each year they age - but once they have been on the list for long enough - they are proven minimum standard guys the younger guys have to knock out.

Everyone judges players differently.
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This overvalues players on the market. How else did we get Nick Newman, a borderline best 22 role player with a future 4th? Lost SPS for a third despite being young, played 50+ games and has loads of potential?? Each transaction is individual, without any pseudo bracketing. Back to a point of emphasis, I hope we keep Honey based on potential but other clubs aren’t paying anything for him.
 
BigBreakfast said:
This overvalues players on the market. How else did we get Nick Newman, a borderline best 22 role player with a future 4th? Lost SPS for a third despite being young, played 50+ games and has loads of potential?? Each transaction is individual, without any pseudo bracketing. Back to a point of emphasis, I hope we keep Honey based on potential but other clubs aren’t paying anything for him.
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Honey won't be going anywhere - that is why he has been upgraded to the senior list from there he gets a couple of years to show what he's got.
 
JustaBattler said:
Honey won't be going anywhere - that is why he has been upgraded to the senior list from there he gets a couple of years to show what he's got.
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I hope not. I’m just talking values. No one in the AFL is paying anything to acquire him. If SPS was valued as a third, Honey’s external worth is a future 5th.
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
2. Paddy Dow - Carlton paid: #3 - Current worth: Late 2nd round - Trending Up
4. Lochie O'Brien - Carlton paid: #10 - Current worth: 4th round - Nil - Trending up
7. Matt Kennedy - Carlton paid: #28 - Current worth: 3rd round - Trending Up
8. Lachie Fogarty - Carlton paid: 3rd round* - Current worth: 3rd round - Not trending
11. Mitch McGovern - Carlton paid: 2 2nd round picks- Current worth: Late 2nd round/early 3rd - Trending Down
22. Caleb Marchbank - Carlton paid: #19* - Current worth: Nil - Trending down
26. Luke Parks - Carlton paid: Rookie pick - Current worth - Nil - Not trending
28. David Cuningham - Carlton paid #23 - Current worth: 4th rounder - Not trending
29. Corey Durdin - Carlton paid #37 - Current worth: 3rd rounder - Trending up
31. Tom Williamson - Carlton paid #61 - Current worth: late 3rd rounder - Not trending
32. Jack Newnes - Carlton paid: Delisted free agent - Current worth: Nil - Trending Down
34. Sam Philp - Carlton paid: #20 - Current worth - 4th round - Trending Down
37. Jordan Boyd - Carlton paid: SSP Pick - Current worth: Nil - Not trending
39. Oscar McDonald - Carlton paid: SSP Pick - Current worth: Nil - Not trending
43. Will Setterfield - Carlton paid: 2nd and 3rd round - Current worth: Late 3rd - Trending Down
44. Matt Owies - Carlton paid: Rookie pick - Current worth: 4th rounder - Trending Up
45. Alex Mirkov - Carlton paid: Midseason Draft - Current worth: Nil - Not trending
47. Matthew Cottrell - Carlton paid: SSP - Current worth - Nil - Not trending
Click to expand...

I would hazard a guess these guys have no real value at all.
 
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LemmingMaster said:
I would hazard a guess these guys have no real value at all.
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Yeah, it's all a bit of a guess. I can see Dow's value starting to return after some good games last year and Kennedy might have found value again.
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
Yeah, it's all a bit of a guess. I can see Dow's value starting to return after some good games last year and Kennedy might have found value again.
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Wasn’t Kennedy delisted to get onto the rookie list? Which would mean he’s an unrestricted free agent for life, so no trade value.

If a team wanted him and he wanted to go they’d just sign him as a free agent once he’s out of contract, like Chol going to the Gold Coast.
 
CJMB said:
Wasn’t Kennedy delisted to get onto the rookie list? Which would mean he’s an unrestricted free agent for life, so no trade value.

If a team wanted him and he wanted to go they’d just sign him as a free agent once he’s out of contract, like Chol going to the Gold Coast.
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100% corect and is why I have prefaced everything I say about Kennedy with IF he wants to stay....

anyway (IMO) under a coaching regime that will no doubt value genuine competitors over skinny runt bludgers and half steppers Kennedy will do just fine.
 
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