Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[Turbocat]

The fact West Coast can't offer what they don't have is fair enough. If Kelly asks to be traded to West Coast then we'll probably sniff around some of their good young players and talk to Freo to see if they offer something better. Ultimately if we can't prize out a young kid we like and Kelly insists on preferring West Coast over Freo then I think we'll accept their 2 first rounders even if they are likely to both be picks 15-20. There's also Sydney's 2nd rounder this year that belongs to West Coast now which could be a pick around 20 if they keep stinking it up.

Be nice if West Coast could slip stream the Bulldogs after a flag .... they ended up with 9 then 7...

My point basically was much the same as yours.

My guess IF it comes down to it if we have to do something like WC R1 , Syd R2 , Wc2020 R1 <> TKellly + R2 .. I suspect we would do that. Wells would back himself to get something out of those picks

 

[Turbocat]

Really good article in the Hun...

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...y/news-story/23aff5b552a4c6428a358deacb3127f8

Chris Scott’s head was on the pillow in a Cambridge, Massachusetts bedroom but his mind was spinning at a million miles an hour.
In that lonely pre-dawn hour the Geelong premiership coach was getting his head around life after Tim Kelly.

Scott was completing a Harvard University study course, but back home master recruiter Stephen Wells was completing a trade deal for Kelly that Scott had officially endorsed.

All West Coast needed was to pull the trigger and hand over picks 20, 22 and their 2019 second-rounder in exchange for Kelly and the Cats’ 2019 third-rounder.

Geelong had just handed the reigning premiers the most electrifying young midfield talent to enter the game that season.

Then Scott’s phone beeped again.

“It was about 4.30am US time and I was in Harvard so I had a little bit on my mind over and above the Tim Kelly thing, which was clearly the most important thing on my mind,” Scott revealed to the Herald Sun this week.

“So then the text message came through 15 minutes later. It’s always Wellsy, he takes responsibility for it. The text just said NO DEAL.

“I could not have been happier.
.....

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...y/news-story/23aff5b552a4c6428a358deacb3127f8

 

[Down at K Park]

But according to our west coke mate they didn’t have the picks to get the deal done

They look stupid not accepting that deal now.

 

[Turbocat]

But according to our west coke mate they didn’t have the picks to get the deal done

They look stupid not accepting that deal now.

20 , 22 and R2 for Kelly our R3 was a very , very good deal for them... how much would it have cost them to make the R2 ..an R1

I think they got to focused on what they could have drafted him for ..not what he could be worth to them ..

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...y/news-story/23aff5b552a4c6428a358deacb3127f8

HOT PROPERTY
West Coast should have drafted Kelly, then 12 months later probably should have committed to that trade on a five-year deal worth around $3 million a season.

Their officials walked out of that bruising negotiation saying Geelong’s asking price was unfair.

This week as they reflected on the aborted deal they made clear in that 2018 draft clubs knew it was a deep pool with hopes players such as Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma (both mid-teens picks) would still be on the table.

If Kelly is to officially request a trade again this much is clear — the market price is somewhere between two first-rounders and a first-rounder and high second-round pick.

Fremantle has made it clear Kelly is their No.1 trade target.

The Dockers have cap space for a godfather offer — say $6 million over six years.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...y/news-story/23aff5b552a4c6428a358deacb3127f8

 

[year of the cat]

But according to our west coke mate they didn’t have the picks to get the deal done

They look stupid not accepting that deal now.

Their arrogance is astounding. Just a complete sense of entitlement that they should not only have Kelly but secure him using peanuts.

 

[year of the cat]

Just need Freo to drop games and slide now. IF he's going home it has to be to Freo.

 

[Down at K Park]

Their arrogance is astounding. Just a complete sense of entitlement that they should not only have Kelly but secure him using peanuts.

It’s astounding isn’t it? And they still think it wasn’t a low ball offer. And now old mate is saying they didn’t have the picks. Flogs.

 

[Turbocat]

Just need Freo to drop games and slide now. IF he's going home it has to be to Freo.

I have no idea of what the would be like to deal with .. they have taken plenty of R1's so one would think they would be willing to give 2r1's even if they want something back. The way its mentioned in the article its more than a superficial chance ... and they will probably have more money than anyone.
Id say that it would require a touch of fence building after last years comments..

 

[Tony Barber]

It’s astounding isn’t it? And they still think it wasn’t a low ball offer. And now old mate is saying they didn’t have the picks. Flogs.

As much as I hate points. The equivalent of pick 2 was not low ball.
We just didn't need the points. And wc didn't see it.

Wish I could read behind that stupid paywall.

 

[foxdog50]

Moderators. Can we do a poll to this. Asking the question. Do you think Tim Kelly will be playing at Geelong next year?

 

[Warhorse]

As much as I hate points. The equivalent of pick 2 was not low ball.
We just didn't need the points. And wc didn't see it.

Wish I could read behind that stupid paywall.

It was low ball. Those picks couldn't even snare a top 10 pick. Get a clue

 

[Turbocat]

As much as I hate points. The equivalent of pick 2 was not low ball.
We just didn't need the points. And wc didn't see it.

Wish I could read behind that stupid paywall.

Equivilant just doesnt cut it Tony... P1 is 3000 points .. if they offered us P40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48 and thats equivalent to P1 on points. Which still means you do not get to select a player till other clubs have chosen 39 times.

Its not about points in this situation , it was about the player we wanted ..which was really top 10. If the had offered P6 ..less than P2 on points yet the deal would have been done.

 

[Down at K Park]

As much as I hate points. The equivalent of pick 2 was not low ball.
We just didn't need the points. And wc didn't see it.

Wish I could read behind that stupid paywall.

Yes it is low ball. By the time those picks rolled around the big talent is gone. It’s a stupid comparison to say a bunch of late picks equals one high one.

 

[Tony Barber]

Yes it is low ball. By the time those picks rolled around the big talent is gone. It’s a stupid comparison to say a bunch of late picks equals one high one.

That's effectively what I said.

 

[Down at K Park]

That's effectively what I said.

You said it wasn’t low ball. Which is exactly what it was. They expected to get a guy who was 2nd in our b&f and top 10 in the brownlow in his first year, for a couple of picks that roll around after all the big talent is gone.

 

[Tony Barber]

You said it wasn’t low ball. Which is exactly what it was. They expected to get a guy who was 2nd in our b&f and top 10 in the brownlow in his first year, for a couple of picks that roll around after all the big talent is gone.

Oh right. Yes I thought that what they offered wasn't lowball.
It is now.

I was saying you can't add all the points and call it pick 2 like they were trying.

 

[Ricketz]

& you cant give what you dont have, uncommon sense?

Then why write checks to him you can't cash?

This, and only this, is why Eagles stuffed up, in my opinion. Unprofessional to be whispering sweet nothings and then blame the owner for not throwing him away cheap. Who in business operates that way? It will and has only made things harder for the Eagles to get the job done this year, and will likely send a red flag to other clubs when dealing with them.

You can spin it anyway you like, but the Eagles stuffed up big time.

 

[Kwality]

What?

Kersten wanted to play with Hamling and he’s not that great so we were happy to let him go. When it comes to not best 22 players or out of contract guys we let them go wherever they like. We will make the trades work to let them go.

Scooter was a UFA, you had no intention of matching any offers. Pretty sure we offered him way unders given his injury issues.

My point is clubs dont even try & stick it up each other any more, & the Eagles/Cats have dealt before without problems, Cooky & his protege Nisbett.

Then why write checks to him you can't cash?

This, and only this, is why Eagles stuffed up, in my opinion. Unprofessional to be whispering sweet nothings and then blame the owner for not throwing him away cheap. Who in business operates that way? It will and has only made things harder for the Eagles to get the job done this year, and will likely send a red flag to other clubs when dealing with them.

You can spin it anyway you like, but the Eagles stuffed up big time.

What cheque was that, remember it was Mrs Kelly that wasnt happy, surely the Eagles were whispering sweet nothings in her ear, Tim was & is happy at Geelong.
That not doing a deal last year will probably cost the Eagles more, mean the Cats get more ... be happy with that.
Did the Eagles blame the Cats, reckon the final conversation was Cook & Nisbett & an acknowledgement that a deal could not be done & (for Grafter) you have the comments by Danger & Scott that seem to acknowledge that.
Of course there are those who need their club to be in the right, the other club to be in the wrong, their club to win, the other club to lose ....

 

[catempire]

What will happen to Tim Kelly's value if he wins the Brownlow Medal?
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-18/brownlow-predictor-star-cat-soars-to-pole-position

 

[Turbocat]

What will happen to Tim Kelly's value if he wins the Brownlow Medal?
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-05-18/brownlow-predictor-star-cat-soars-to-pole-position

I really doubt it can get much more than it is... do we have any examples of a Brownlow suddenly increasing a players value. TK's standing has now escalated to the point where there are not many examples of any player being traded for more than is being talked about. The article i linked to .. mentioned the type of value that has been mentioned on here..

" If Kelly is to officially request a trade again this much is clear — the market price is somewhere between two first-rounders and a first-rounder and high second-round pick"...

If we get two R1 picks .. (depending on their position) without anything go back to West Coast would put TK as one of the highest rated players in trade in recent times .... which trade has been worth more? The article mentions WC picks (have no idea where they got those picks from) but it also mentioned 6M for 6 years ... I suspect if Freo become attractive to him, expecting Freo finish lower than WC... Maybe their two R1 picks and maybe something going back would be about as good as we can get.

 

[steady2]

Safe to say Danger was being more than a bit diplomatic, considering the rag he was talking to.

The biggest reason a deal couldn't get done last year is you weren't willing to part with even one first round pick. This in exchange for a first year player who jumped straight into polling 13 Brownlow votes and finishing second in the Carji Greeves (for reference West Coasts top Brownlow vote getters were Gaff with 16 and Yeo with 15, Kelly would have been third).

But after you've passed on him time and again, confident he'll make his own way home, we still will most likely have to accept a deal where he goes home for significantly less than he's worth.

Not necessarily. It seems likely we will be eligible for compensation picks, depending on how much the Eagles offer and if it accepted. However I think it will be unlikely the Eagles will offer that much since they have never considered him worth much, further the Eagles have a very solid midfield and with all their talent as the reigning premiers their salary cap won't give them much room. If Freo offer $1.6m+ for a two year contract and he accepts we will most likely get compo picks, especially if he maintains his form for the season. At the moment we still have a good chance of keeping him, and we will get the first bid in.

 

[steady2]

Just need Freo to drop games and slide now. IF he's going home it has to be to Freo.

When we play them we need to absolutely murder them, also perhaps their nasty coach will provide a vicious Stephen Baker-style tagger to punch, hit, kick and spit at Tim through the game.

 

[Kwality]

It been "reported" offer ... the two picks 20 & 22 ..(that then worked into 22 and 25 I think ) and a future pick. If that future picks was a R2 ..and we wanted that changed to one.etc. The deal would have then been 20 & 22 & FR1 (about P16-P20) .. It quite possible that you could have got him without one pick lower than 20( depending on your finish this year and how many bids on players this year).

Again. I find too much retrospective rather boring ... Its far more relevant now if you are going to bring a gun to the gun fight this year... It matter not what you could have picked him for or what we picked him for ... as Costner said in Draft Day... "we live in a differnt world than we did 30 seconds ago" let alone 18 months ago..

TK will be on .8 to 1M. If you finish top 4 this year ... 2R1's , say P16 and P16 +... will be required imo

Yep & I'd back Freo in to deal that deal, better than 16 & for Kelly to take his place in a team on the build.

 

[Ricketz]

What cheque was that, remember it was Mrs Kelly that wasnt happy, surely the Eagles were whispering sweet nothings in her ear, Tim was & is happy at Geelong.
That not doing a deal last year will probably cost the Eagles more, mean the Cats get more ... be happy with that.
Did the Eagles blame the Cats, reckon the final conversation was Cook & Nisbett & an acknowledgement that a deal could not be done & (for Grafter) you have the comments by Danger & Scott that seem to acknowledge that.
Of course there are those who need their club to be in the right, the other club to be in the wrong, their club to win, the other club to lose ....

Mate, it has been well reported WCE were in his ear before he even played five games for us, making promises to his manager.

Honestly, undermining another clubs draft pick before their first year is up is a dog act, and every other club saw them doing it.

If you think WCE hands are clean, you are either ignorant or trolling, in which case gtfo our board with that s**t.

 

[Kwality]

But according to our west coke mate they didn’t have the picks to get the deal done

They look stupid not accepting that deal now.

Now, good on you, be happy you won, the Eagles lost, consoled in the 2018 flag, you winner you !!
You need Tim to help you to a flag before the next trade period opens, cos thats what counts if its wins & loses that floats your boat, not the Kellys.