Do the right thing squeegles

[Deej]

i've had a bet on west coast for the flag $80 @ 5.25 this week, i just think they're not going so well at the moment but still winning most games, will get top 2 and should win through to the granny. Fingers crossed.

3 weeks ago, $5.25, today, $2.80. 2 weeks ago they were bloody $6! I should've kept going at that price, ludicrious for a side that was always going to get that double chance (and thus 2 home finals virtually guaranteeing them a GF birth).
Hop i'm not putting a mozz on them.

 

[HeLMie]

Offload at at 2.5 in the Granny.

 

[sethlad]

Time to lay them on betfair Deej
Guaranteed profit,around 80% Id be guessing

seth

 

[Deej]

WCE on betfair
Bet 3.35
Lay 3.45

Ok i've got $80@5.25=$420, so if i lay them at 3.45, what odds am i actually betting on them to not win the flag? It's a bit hard to work out how to get the arb.

 

[sethlad]

Lay $120 x $3.45 = $415
Scenario 1:Guaranteed profit no matter which result

Eagles win:In $420 Out $375 (295 liability + original 80). Profit $45
Eagles lose: In $120 Out $80 . Profit $40


Scenario 2:Lay them for $80, still win if they win,break even if they lose.

Eagles Win: In $420 Out $276 (196 liability + original 80). Profit $144
Eagles Lose: In $80 Out $80 =break even

seth

 

[YOTC]

I'm willing to bet a substantial amount of money on West Coast not winning the premiership...

 

[sethlad]

Thats no help,he's looking to lay them

seth

 

[Deej]

Lay $130 x $3.15 = $409.5

Scenario 1:Guaranteed profit no matter which result
Eagles win:In $420 Out $361.50 (281.50 liability + original 80). Profit $58.50
Eagles lose: In $130 Out $80 . Profit $50


Scenario 2:Lay them for $80, still win if they win,break even if they lose.
Eagles Win: In $420 Out $252 (172 liability + original 80). Profit $168
Eagles Lose: In $80 Out $80 =break even

seth

Seth, they're now 3.15 the lay, have i done these re-calculations right?

 

[toddy]

Doesn't seem any point to pick up $50 maybe $100 at most, might as well just hope they win and get $400.

 

[sethlad]

Yep,they look good.
I know what Id be doing & "hope" doesnt enter the equation

seth

 

[Deej]

Actually maybe toddy has a point, what's 50 bucks thesedays nothing. Also, i reckon there's a good chance i'll get better odds down the track to lay off. Like on grand final week. Lay off at 2.20 is better than lay off at 3.15! Might bide my time i reckon.....

 

[sethlad]

We are very different animals Deej but I wouldnt expect any different.

seth

 

[Deej]

woops, maybe i should've laid off after all....

 

[YOTC]

They haven't been knocked out yet, although i do believe they will struggle to beat Adelaide if they make it that far...

 

[Deej]

I can now put $210 on the swans at $2, which guarantees me a $130 profit no matter who wins. Or i stick with the eagles and win $340 or lose $80. I think i might lay off.

 

[harry_hawka]

Let it ride Deej!!

These kinda bets are always more exciting if you just follow through the whole way. Maybe have a little bit on Sydney to soften the blow, but don't make the West Coast profit come down considerably in the process. As you said earlier, there's not much thrill picking up $50 or $100, you could probably blow that on Northerly's second son in about 3 seconds. But $400 is starting to talk serious dollars- you will basically be having free bets for a lot of the spring.

Plus, I reckon the Coasters will win!

 

[Mordecai]

I can now put $210 on the swans at $2, which guarantees me a $130 profit no matter who wins. Or i stick with the eagles and win $340 or lose $80. I think i might lay off.

God damn.
I wish i was on your boat when it sailed.

I'm only just getting into this stuff.

 

[SorryIHammerChicken]

Lay it off, the Eagles won't win the Granny. I still can't believe Sydney are 2.24.

 

[HeLMie]

Lay it off, the Eagles won't win the Granny. I still can't believe Sydney are 2.24.

Where?

 

[Deej]

Let it ride Deej!!

These kinda bets are always more exciting if you just follow through the whole way. Maybe have a little bit on Sydney to soften the blow, but don't make the West Coast profit come down considerably in the process. As you said earlier, there's not much thrill picking up $50 or $100, you could probably blow that on Northerly's second son in about 3 seconds. But $400 is starting to talk serious dollars- you will basically be having free bets for a lot of the spring.

Plus, I reckon the Coasters will win!

Prob is i think Sydney will win it. So i've had $100 on the swans @2.10 which gets me win 30 for swans and win 240 for eagles. But i'm thinking of having another $220 on swans to make it 272 win for swans and 20 win for eagles.
Seth, what would you do?

 

[sethlad]

You know how I operate Deej,you cant lose winning money.
Excitement on the day is one thing,profit pays the bills.
At the end of the day that should be what we all aim for.

Im in a very similar situation & have taken the odds on offer Sydney.
Personally I think WC will win but its hard to be very confident.

If you truly think Sydney will win then at least make sure your bet is leaning that way.


HeLMie,Sydney are trading $2.24 at Pinnacle

seth

 

[Deej]

2.15 now, and it looks like they're drifting....
I'm going down the tote when it opens to have 115@2.15 the swans, couldn't be bothered if they drift more. Makes my scenario swans-162.25, wce-125, seth i agree it's better to make the profit in these situations. Especially considering it's such a close call on the game, but leaning to swans.

I think $35 the draw is over the odds too, given they're always within a few points of each other.

 

[Dingster]

Meh. Go for the glory. I added more to my Eagles bet this week!

 

[johnnyhoward]

I was going to go for the glory as well Dingster when I got the Crows for the flag at $7.60 (around Round 20/21). I thought they could at the very least make the GF, and I was going to lay them off then. 22 points up at halftime in the prelim, how good's this, an easy $600 for whoever wins the GF, hey?

So my $200 went down swinging, going for the glory Good luck to you though Dingster, although I'm on the Swans tomorrow

 

[Deej]

Ended up winning $135 the eagles.