Do we over value draft picks ?

[Punt_Road_Roar]

Regarding the lastest rumours that we have given up our pick 8 for Polak and pick 13, which even I disliked as soon as I heard it. I realise that top 5 picks are something entirely different, but losing pick 8 there is still something that makes me screw my nose up.

So I decided to look at this years premiers as an example and just see what type of picks made up this years best team and to be honest I knew they had done well but this just blew me away:


Cousins Father/Son (1995)
Wirrapanda Compensatory pick (1996) (was Freo's pick)
Banfield pick 1 (1992)
Judd Pick 3 (2001)
Glass pick 11 (1999)
Waters pick 11 (2003)
Kerr pick 18 (2000)
Butler pick 20 (2003)
Seaby Pick 22 (2001)
Chick pick 25 (1995) (Hawthorn)
Armstrong pick 25 (2001) (Melbourne)
R Jones Pick 28 (1997)
Hunter pick 29 (1999)
Stenglein Pick 29 (1998) (Adelaide)
Hansen Pick 38 (2001)
Braun Pick 53 (1996)
Selwood Pick 53 (2002)
Embley Pick 57 (1998)
Fletcher Rookie (1998)
Cox Rookie (2000)
Lynch Rookie (2002)
B Jones Rookie (2004)

then there is these guys who are considered unlucky not to get a game:

Rosa Pick 29 (2004)
Graham Rookie (2005)
Nicoski Rookie (2003)

Who has been West Coast's Recruiting Manager? The person / persons are absolute geniuses.

So I'm off now to see how our Club's current list rates in comparison, but first I better do some actual work.

 

[Darth_Tiger]

they have done well, and it goes to show that drafting talent is only one end of the equation, it is also development and coaching. and i dont mean match day coaching i mean coaching to get the best out of each individual.

 

[UpTheGuts]

Great work PRR... startling stuff. Just to start with we have No.1 picks (Gaspar and Lids), a #4 (Tambling), #8 (Pettifer)...

As Weaver says, it's like a game of darts where every round means you shoot from further away, but geez that's some good drafting by the weagles.

 

[Lenny*]

As Weaver says, it's like a game of darts where every round means you shoot from further away

Thats a great analogy (Is that an analogy?)

 

[UpTheGuts]

Thats a great analogy (Is that an analogy?)

I think so. I guess following the analogy theme WC's recruiters must be really good at shooting darts, and Greg Miller should practice more down at his local. Actually now I'm starting to confuse myself.

 

[duckboy]

Thats a great analogy (Is that an analogy?)

Yep. Sure is.

 

[DDTiger]

well done weaver, really good analogy

 

[Weaver]

I think so. I guess following the analogy theme WC's recruiters must be really good at shooting darts, and Greg Miller should practice more down at his local.

You have to remember that a club might only have 1 top-20 pick. If over the course of 10 years they get 60% of them 'right' that might translate to 6 players a decade.

In contrast a club could have 5 rookie picks a year. Over 10 years if they get 20% of them right then that is 10 players.

That is all the draft is. The guys up the top are a better chance of being good (but not certainties) and the guys down the bottom can be just as good - you just have to burn a lot more picks getting that good one.

The Eagles don't have a 'magic' recruitier who translates rookie-picks into prmiership players. What they do have is the budget to use lots of rookie picks. They have rookied many more duds than good ones - jsut like everyone else.
.

 

[Punt_Road_Roar]

You have to remember that a club might only have 1 top-20 pick. If over the course of 10 years they get 60% of them 'right' that might translate to 6 players a decade.

In contrast a club could have 5 rookie picks a year. Over 10 years if they get 20% of them right then that is 10 players.

That is all the draft is. The guys up the top are a better chance of being good (but not certainties) and the guys down the bottom can be just as good - you just have to burn a lot more picks getting that good one.

The Eagles don't have a 'magic' recruitier who translates rookie-picks into prmiership players. What they do have is the budget to use lots of rookie picks. They have rookied many more duds than good ones - jsut like everyone else.
.

So what your saying Weaver is the longer we are broke the more chance we have of being crap.

Oh Well atleast Carlton will be worse off than us then

I also note that West Coast do pretty well with their second round picks.