Opinion Do You Think We Will Take A Step Backwards?

[The Blue Baggers]

defence needs time to settle together but has the talent. mids will be a concern if we get any injuries. cripps murphy gibbs curnow is a good first four but falls away badly after that. we have a number of handy players but lack talent. cuningham & sumner have talent but aren't established and palmer will be a good addition. pick 5 etc will need time

I think Cunningham will play pretty much on the wing

Showed a bit towards the end of the year

 

[Shambolic]

Great topic.

I have a bit more hope than others; this rests in how woeful our forward entries were in 2016. I think we had two plans; one to bomb it to Levi v 1, 2 or 3 and then secondly to get it out the back (which worked ok on limited occasions).

A pre-season working on options here irrespective of the youth of our forwards has to provide some value here. When you have the ball in the midfield and can deliver you have a greater than 50/50 chance to deliver effectively but our delivery and structures were so poor we often made a meal of those where we were still > 50/50.

Go Blues.

 

[Soapy V]

I think Cunningham will play pretty much on the wing

Showed a bit towards the end of the year

I class wing as midfield but Cunningham did start at a lot of centre bounces when he played later in the year.

 

[gbatman]

AKA we lacked depth. This I feel is our great unknown. Will smedts and palmer and pickett add depth ? Or will they be best 22?. If they become best 22 then the players that they displace from our 2016 best 22 will form our depth players and we will improve significantly.
Also if Big Harry and Charlie and Cuningham become best 22 then we have further improved our depth. Players like Kerridge who whilst more than useful, had limitations and were being asked to perform roles not entirely suited to their skill set.
Keep Murphy along with Cripps and Gibbs on the park and we will have a decent core to add to

The traded in players aren't here to play reserves, they will play seniors if fit. I think we're more intent on building our best 22 and top end talent ahead of depth otherwise we would have kept Everitt. I think, Charly, Harry and Cuningham will be given a lot of games, may not be in there because they deserve to on form. Our path to depth is to bring in players who are good enough to push others out, not to bring in players who are fringe outside the best 22. This appears to be how we have been managing our list.

Guys like Gibbs, Murphy etc go down they are hard to replace where as guys like Kerridge or Wright go down it's not a big problem for us. Top level talent is our problem and we bring in top level players and push the ones below them down then we are on the right path.

 

[COBALT BLUE]

We're an unknown because we're going in with a lot of unknown players and injury riddled players. I think we've taken our steps backwards and while it is possible we could drop down further I suspect we'll remain about the same with a slight improvement a possibility.

We had a good run with injuries early last season and we were competitive and won some games but a few injuries saw us crash right down. The only way we improve is if our young players step up. Many are still very young so not a great deal expected. I think any major improvements will come from midfield improvement. We are making improvements to the forward and backling but I don't think we'll see it turn around until the midfield does. A full season from Murphy, Gibbs and Cripps which for memory has never been seen will see us competitive.

Agreed,soon as Murphy was injured we lost direction in 2016...he has actually won us a lot of games of the ones we have won in the past few years...so obviously we have a core of a few probably elite players we are heavily dependent on and as you said 2017 will depend on injury.its the same for most teams.
I dont see us sliding in 2017 because Bolton manufactured a strategy without a forward structure ..we couldnt lead and make or create anything positive past half forward.Casboult couldnt mark well in 2016,and we turned over a lot.we did get some direction from Wright.
2017 will see the younger guys improving and we may see a rising star or two potentially..i dont see it as bad as this year and we will kick more goals and form patterns,positive creative patterns of play.Our list still is not deep,we got more players going out the door next year for sure and look to another big draft year in 2017..

forwards-need to cut it back and rethink strategies that work well.bring in the youth.
midfield-need to become more competitive and not allow being dictated to by bully mids,Bolton will have them fitter this year.
backs-more of the same would be good,was above average performance in 2016.
Our list is not hot but we still could easily push a bit higher on the ladder in 2017 or very similar especially when considering the number of goals we kicked this year.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Seems that most on the Main Board have us finishing in the bottom two next year! A terrible run with injury aside, I reckon there is no reason why we can't at least garner a couple more wins than we did this year and move a bit further up the ladder. Can't really understand the reasons why we should slip down the ladder? Am I missing something? What can we realistically (lean a little on the optimistic side if you can) expect in terms of wins and ladder position?

These are the same people that thought we would finish below * and struggle to win a game.

 

[gbatman]

Main thing I want to see is a side that will apply pressure. Even when we were a half decent team we had some quick players like Garlett and Betts, they never really used their mobility and pace to apply pressure. I think this is the big reason the talented forwards who fell out with Malthouse did so, never chased.

Watching the Bulldogs this season, especially during finals, it didn't matter if they were missing targets or not having a great game, the pressure they applied was phenomenal. Caleb Daniel hardly had a first half touch in any of his finals but the pressure he applied was immense, he was always in the game. The way they forced turnovers was at the highest level. We have a good game plan, we setup well behind the ball, but there is no game plan ever devised that works if pressure isn't applied. Chasing and applying pressure has been an issue with Carlton teams since the early 2000s, we haven't been a good pressure side since Hamill and Hickmott etc were baring down on opposition defenders. This is what we need to develop to be a good side, it's the only way to be successful and only way to make a team defence work which will see us get the most out of guys like Weitering and Marchbank.

So basically, whether our forwards mark it or not, it needs to be a big problem for the opposition to clear it out of there. These guys who don't apply pressure, they are the ones who need to have a line drawn through them.

Youthful enthusiasm and competitive hunger will be what lifts us up the ladder. Laziness and fades in concentration are priority one with player development.
Our forward line could and really should be very young. Our midfield will likely be a little old with hopefully younger players pushing into it. Our backline looks fairly solid but may lack a little depth with injuries.

Looking back in the finals series. Hawks were beaten because they lacked midfield grunt and tackled poorly against Geelong, particularly Dangerfield and Selwood. Swans beat Cats because they applied immense pressure and tackled really strongly (and Geelong poorly structured, slow, no small forwards), Western Bulldogs far too quick for West Coast and out pressured and got to the ball first, Doggies beat GWS on guts and pressure acts which allowed their defensive structures to work and in the grand final it was the relentless 4 quarter pressure from the Dogs that allowed the game to open up late for them. Loads our boys can take away from that.

 

[Schrempfian]

i don't think finishing lower on the ladder next year is a step backwards.

a step backwards would be if all our young players halt in development or unravel to 'reveal' a bootsma.

i see plenty of wins next year ... they might not just be games!!!

 

[LordLucifer]

Yes we will but it won't be detrimental in the longterm.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Agree with most here - we'll probably hold, or even slide a couple of spots back on the ladder, but not because we'll be "worse".

Bottom 10 in 2017:
Richmond - recruited well for the short-term, should be close to the 8 for now and may even get a chance to lose another final.
Melbourne - if they start well, I think they have a great year, but the wheels aren't screwed on tight yet.
West Coast - loss of Naitanui hurts a lot, but the home ground advantage gets them more wins than they deserve.
Essendon - They'll start like a house on fire, but will taper as the year goes on.
St Kilda - Still reliant on Riewoldt, think this is the year he falls away.
Carlton - Will get a few wins against fancied opposition, and drop a few easily winnable games - it's the nature of a youth rebuild.
Collingwood - Not seeing enough improvement on their list to balance the declining form of their senior blokes. Need a few young guys to explode.
Brisbane - Have the talent, yet to be seen if they can get everyone pulling in the same direction.
North Melbourne - lost a lot of experience, haven't replaced it with anything worth mentioning.
Port - huge false dawn a few years back, bought into their own hype and have since stalled. They eat their own over there, and next year will be ugly.

 

[navybluesince75]

Suspect we will play better footy but win fewer games but I will not measure next season on win/loss it will be more on who are becoming the key players in the team, I will consider it a step backwards if Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs are the best players on the ground every week. year for consolidation and improvement from beneath to create some legitimate selection pressure, now wouldn't that be nice.

 

[Schrempfian]

Agree with most here - we'll probably hold, or even slide a couple of spots back on the ladder, but not because we'll be "worse".

Bottom 10 in 2017:
Richmond - recruited well for the short-term, should be close to the 8 for now and may even get a chance to lose another final.
Melbourne - if they start well, I think they have a great year, but the wheels aren't screwed on tight yet.
West Coast - loss of Naitanui hurts a lot, but the home ground advantage gets them more wins than they deserve.
Essendon - They'll start like a house on fire, but will taper as the year goes on.
St Kilda - Still reliant on Riewoldt, think this is the year he falls away.
Carlton - Will get a few wins against fancied opposition, and drop a few easily winnable games - it's the nature of a youth rebuild.
Collingwood - Not seeing enough improvement on their list to balance the declining form of their senior blokes. Need a few young guys to explode.
Brisbane - Have the talent, yet to be seen if they can get everyone pulling in the same direction.
North Melbourne - lost a lot of experience, haven't replaced it with anything worth mentioning.
Port - huge false dawn a few years back, bought into their own hype and have since stalled. They eat their own over there, and next year will be ugly.

Gold Coast & Freo top 8 ... you'd get good odds for that!!

 

[Arr0w]

Agree with most here - we'll probably hold, or even slide a couple of spots back on the ladder, but not because we'll be "worse".

Bottom 10 in 2017:
Richmond - recruited well for the short-term, should be close to the 8 for now and may even get a chance to lose another final.
Melbourne - if they start well, I think they have a great year, but the wheels aren't screwed on tight yet.
West Coast - loss of Naitanui hurts a lot, but the home ground advantage gets them more wins than they deserve.
Essendon - They'll start like a house on fire, but will taper as the year goes on.
St Kilda - Still reliant on Riewoldt, think this is the year he falls away.
Carlton - Will get a few wins against fancied opposition, and drop a few easily winnable games - it's the nature of a youth rebuild.
Collingwood - Not seeing enough improvement on their list to balance the declining form of their senior blokes. Need a few young guys to explode.
Brisbane - Have the talent, yet to be seen if they can get everyone pulling in the same direction.
North Melbourne - lost a lot of experience, haven't replaced it with anything worth mentioning.
Port - huge false dawn a few years back, bought into their own hype and have since stalled. They eat their own over there, and next year will be ugly.

West Coast to miss the finals? Big call

 

[Blue__Balls]

Gold Coast & Freo top 8 ... you'd get good odds for that!!

Yep. Freo I'm more confident on, I genuinely feel they tanked hard once Fyfe went down and it became clear they wouldn't challenge this year. They've recruited well and will shoot back into top 8 (if not top 4) calculations. Gold Coast are due some good luck, with a good injury run I think they'll sneak into the 8.

West Coast to miss the finals? Big call

I think NicNat is critical for them, and to have lost him for the year spells trouble. Their gameplan hinges on midfield dominance, and losing their prize ruckman is devastating.

 

[HBF]

We're still in our reset, so it's a matter of getting games into the kids for me again in 2017.
I really like that we now have a backline that will stay together for the next decade or so. Docherty, Weitering, Plowman and Marchbank is about as solid as it gets. Hopefully we'll continue to see Silvagni improve, and get games into Curnow and McKay.

The midfield is a weakest zone and we need to build on this through the next couple of drafts. Whilst Murphy, Cripps and Gibbs are all very good, our depth drops away big time after these 3.

We may well take a backwards step in terms of ladder position as you'd expect Essendon, Freo and probably Gold Coast to all improve more than us, we'll have our own markers on where we want to improve.

 

[Sector 7G]

I would like to see Charlie have a Cripps like breakout and win the B&F. No one expected Patty to win the b&f in 2015 and his 2014 wasn't as impressive as Charlies 2016 (although he showed plenty in his 2nds games).

 

[Arr0w]

Yep. Freo I'm more confident on, I genuinely feel they tanked hard once Fyfe went down and it became clear they wouldn't challenge this year. They've recruited well and will shoot back into top 8 (if not top 4) calculations. Gold Coast are due some good luck, with a good injury run I think they'll sneak into the 8.



I think NicNat is critical for them, and to have lost him for the year spells trouble. Their gameplan hinges on midfield dominance, and losing their prize ruckman is devastating.

I agree in part. It would be more critical losing him during the season, rather than starting a campaign without him

With the knowledge, of Nic Nat possibly missing the entire year, they have the opportunity to tweak their setup to cater for the loss of his dominance, as did a side like PA when they lost Lobbe. Also don't underestimate the acquisition of Mitchell, his input in tweaking this setup would be invaluable given the number of years Hawthorn lacked a dominant ruckman

 

[Big Sim is Back]

I am expecting a bottom four if not bottom two finish because I cant see us winning more than a handful of games. Nonetheless, this is not necessarily a step backwards in anything other than ladder position. We are still sorting the wheat from the chaff, and indeed trying to sprout some seeds to grow that wheat. Early days in the rebuild what I hope for is some kids showing that they will be good afl players and a team playing together. A few wins would be good and I think we will take down a couple of fancied opponents as we lift and they come in half cocked. But all the weaker teams will be playing out of their skins against us a we will present a chance for four points to even the lowliest of them. As long as we get some devlopment into the kids, some improvement into the rest, apply pressure as Batty says and not get too many beltings I will consider us moving forward,

 

[TheCoach16]

We are still sorting the wheat from the chaff, and indeed trying to sprout some seeds to grow that wheat.

We've been gluten free for a while, but I think we're ok now...

Conservatively, I reckon 16 wins...

 

[JustaBattler]

I reckon the dishlickers absolutely stole a flag on nothing more than enthusiasm - they out mongrelled everyone who they played against.

So predicting where we finish is all about what kind of enthusiasm Bolton can get going and what kind of mongrel our newer players can bring to each game.

I look forward to seeing how much better the side can play 4 quarters of hard at it football - no team likes having to pull out all stops to beat a team they are suippossed to roll over easily - we will be the team everyone hates to play - because of the embarasment factor in losing.

The monbgrel factor will have to be there- because every player now knbows that both Bolton and SOS expect delivery if they are to wear the Navy Blue.

Great place to be in rebuild/reset.

 

[RudyBlue]

No reason we can't improve again, Bolton doesn't strike me as one who'd want to be treading water.

Other teams are improving? Who gives a toss, let's beat them.

The competition is undoubtedly quite even. We have a torrid run with injuries, senior players don't stand up, and confidence disappears, we could conceivably finish in the bottom two. Things fall in place, our kids develop and senior guys have a nice consistent output, we could conceivably push for the 8.

Way too much is perceived about relative superiority and inferiority. None of us should EXPECT to finish in the bottom two with any authority, nor should they expect us to finish in the 8.

There's shock risers and fallers every year, the fact that this can happen is what makes the sport so great.

 

[Deep Blue]

No reason we can't improve again, Bolton doesn't strike me as one who'd want to be treading water.

Other teams are improving? Who gives a toss, let's beat them.

The competition is undoubtedly quite even. We have a torrid run with injuries, senior players don't stand up, and confidence disappears, we could conceivably finish in the bottom two. Things fall in place, our kids develop and senior guys have a nice consistent output, we could conceivably push for the 8.

Way too much is perceived about relative superiority and inferiority. None of us should EXPECT to finish in the bottom two with any authority, nor should they expect us to finish in the 8.

There's shock risers and fallers every year, the fact that this can happen is what makes the sport so great.

Hopefully, the run of the outsiders continues in 2017 - so far Leicester City (bet Carlton won't be 5000 to 1 at start of 2017 for the Premiership), Bulldogs, Cronulla, Chicago Cubs and dare I say Trump; Blues in 2017 anyone?

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Yes we will but it won't be detrimental in the longterm.

Getting games and development into our kids is the most important than wins, i would take greater joy in Prince Charles, Harry Mac, Cuningham and pick 5 (whomever it is) all playing at least 17 games in the seniors then winning games over meh teams like Brizzle or Freo.

Haven't been excited by a young prospect in years than i am with Chuck. The sky is the limit with his talent, hopefully Bolts and Ed can keep him level headed and ensures he has a great work ethic . I like that he seems to have a bit of swag about him, we should encourage and nurture players who have confidence, not stifle them

 

[COBALT BLUE]

We will stay around the same on ladder in 2017..
however our performance will improve in 2017-we have to and will kick more goals in 2017 even if Harry has to do it.
look at other teams we could pass in 2017-north? lions?power?demons?dons?hawks?
we could notch up seven wins next year,plus i see us kicking more goals making it more likely,.
we wont bottom out this year..not a part of the plans and unlikely with our defence already an A-

 

[Blubagger71]

Reckon we are two more preseason, not including this one, away from moving forward in terms of wins. Bigger bodies and growing confidence needed. What happens between now and then is about application and commitment. We could surprise the pundits and jag some wins but, that's not super important. Focus on the process and player growth. Foundation will see us challenge and become a destination club again.