DT Rucks 2010

[Frozenwaste]

First thread, so please be gentle.

Was reading the 09 thread, and someone suggested to make a '10 thread once the season was over. Not sure if it's been done, went through the first 3 pages and there wasn't one there.

Just some Cox questions to start off:
What does everyone think about Cox?
Would he still have to be a lock in every side anymore?
Or with the growing scores of Sandi, Clark, McIntosh etc, would he just be an over-expensive premium?

Perhaps it be better for structure to go with two relatively mid priced ruckmen, such as Brogan, Kreuzer or Tippet, who are all 70 average players, but could, and in some cases probably should, improve this year.

There is also two options weighing on everyone's mind: Hille and Ottens. If Hille can replicate his 2008 form, he would be a steal at around $200,000. But coming off his injury, is it really worth it?
Ottens will be 30 next year, and durability has nearly always been an issue for him. He played 22 games in 2006, but since then has missed 31 games in 3 seasons. However, he does still have the potential to score high, as shown by his 124 against Hawthorn in Round 1.

There aren't too many rucks who are durable. However, Jolly is probably the best. And if Petrie is still named in the rucks, he could be a good pick-up, despite missing games early next season.

Bench-wise, it really depends on which set-up you go with. In my opinion, with a durable ruck combo, you wouldn't need to spend much at all on a bench. If you were to go 2 mid-priced, eg Kreuzer, Tippet etc, you would might want to have Warnock, as he is a high chance of playing next year. If you went with Cox, Sandi or someone similar, you would need to have a look at players who will play, eg. Lobbe, Currie etc.

Another theory my brother explained to me, was that whoever your rucks are, you should have their likely replacement sitting on their bench. This year he had Cox and Sandilands, and on his bench was Naitanui and Zac Clarke. Not a great bench in terms of playing all the time, but if your main rucks have a 1-2 week injury, this could be the ideal solution.

Discuss?

 

[West123]

I don't think Hille can regain dominance. Would want to see some impressive pre-season action where he really gets around the ground. Ottens looks like value but he needs to firstly get fit and secondly prove fitness.

Other than that smash Cox & Sandi and you'll be a happy man.

 

[drummoyne]

I will be searching for value in the rucks in 2010. The emergence of Clark this year has shown the possibilities.

Tippet and Kruezer should both improve with another pre-season under their belts though both have questions over which roles they will play.

Could Cameron Wood step up to provide a good option, Vickery, Mcevoy or Leunberger perhaps?

So many options, so much time to weigh them all up..

 

[moiecoute]

Brennan and Tippett here. Assuming they are listed as rucks next year.

I'll upgrade to Cox or whoever late in the season and hopefully that way can avoid injury concerns. This season taught me something about Rucks and Injuries (Cox and Hille) and having good back up which I didn't (Spencer and Jacobs). Would rather take 60 points less in the ruck and have coverage, save the trade and upgrade elsewhere.

 

[moiecoute]

I will be searching for value in the rucks in 2010. The emergence of Clark this year has shown the possibilities.

Tippet and Kruezer should both improve with another pre-season under their belts though both have questions over which roles they will play.

Could Cameron Wood step up to provide a good option, Vickery, Mcevoy or Leunberger perhaps?

So many options, so much time to weigh them all up..

There are also a couple coming back which should be quite cheap in Skipper and Laycock but you would probably only want these guys as cash cows I guess.

 

[Pumbi]

Brennan

It will be interesting to see what the team from VS do about this one. Brennan spent a fair bit of time in the ruck in most matches for the Lions this year, but it was plain to see that this was a last-ditch solution. With the presumed return of Leunberger and/or Charman, you would assume Brennan's time in the ruck next year would be next to zero.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Brennan and Tippett would be borderline inclusions to the rucks. I can see Tippett being classified as a forward and Brennan anywhere from midfield to forward.

 

[West123]

Brennan & Q Stick should be two players included in the rucks this year who will probably fall out the year after. Tippett for me will not be included. Crows fans will no more than me but I don't recall him doing one centre bounce this year.

 

[chadleverington]

Brennan and Tippett would be borderline inclusions to the rucks. I can see Tippett being classified as a forward and Brennan anywhere from midfield to forward.

Tippett played a reasonable amount in the ruck.

 

[Schulzenfest]

At this stage I'm planning on going for the value picks of Hille (second keeper) and Warnock (upgrade) as long as I'm confident that my bench rucks will get regular games. However, if Brennan is a ruck that set-up may change.

 

[chadleverington]

I wonder if Hille will be on track for round 1. He did his knee in round 5.

 

[Joshen]

I don't think McIntosh will be a good option this year as when Goldstein started playing more in the centre square etc. later in the year McIntosh's scores dropped considerably.

 

[chadleverington]

I don't think McIntosh will be a good option this year as when Goldstein started playing more in the centre square etc. later in the year McIntosh's scores dropped considerably.

agree, i think hmac is full/over priced.

 

[Hodges]

If Brennan and Lynch are named as rucks next year I will be a happy man. Lynch in particular fullfills the Drew Petrie role - hasnt missed a game in 5 seasons, and has steadily improved his average up to 87. Averaged 101 over the last 10 too, so could have some scope for improvement.

Pair him up with a possible improver in Kruezer, Tippett and the like, Warnock on the bench and its a decent setup.

 

[Tidus]

If Brennan and Lynch are named as rucks next year I will be a happy man. Lynch in particular fullfills the Drew Petrie role - hasnt missed a game in 5 seasons, and has steadily improved his average up to 87. Averaged 101 over the last 10 too, so could have some scope for improvement.

Pair him up with a possible improver in Kruezer, Tippett and the like, Warnock on the bench and its a decent setup.

I certainly hope they (Lynch and Brennan) are listed as rucks too. I enjoyed Lynch's second half of the year and if he's named in the rucks he could certainly provide a durable, consistent option, which we know is hard to come by in the rucks.

Brennan is a very interesting one too. We know he has the potential to become an elite player, so if looks to step up his game next year he would be well worth considering.

 

[Hodges]

I certainly hope they (Lynch and Brennan) are listed as rucks too. I enjoyed Lynch's second half of the year and if he's named in the rucks he could certainly provide a durable, consistent option, which we know is hard to come by in the rucks.

Brennan is a very interesting one too. We know he has the potential to become an elite player, so if looks to step up his game next year he would be well worth considering.

Yeah they are worth keeping an eye on for sure. The hard thing with the rucks next year is that a lot of the good options next year had great years this year due to injuries. Lynch with Cox, Clark and Brennan with Lueuy/Charman, Kruezer with Warnock, Ryder with Hille and so on. It will be interesting to see who is affected most by the returns next season.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

Brennan would be a great pick in the ruck considering he doesn't need hitouts to score his points so it won't matter if he doesn't play ruck at all next year.

 

[Lakey91]

I was just thinking about the great years kreuzer and tippet had, so i thought id have a look at if there was some type of trend and thus perhaps make a few projections for Vickery and naitanui. BeatWaters4PM made a similar type of projection for kreuzer in 2009 (see - http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=13017386&postcount=64), but i thought id check out it out for myself.

What i decided to do was not compare rucks performances between their first year and second year, as the sample space was often too small (i have put an asterix * next to players where theses stats are not from the first two years of their careers, and an explanation below).

So, i decided id compare a players average in the first year when they played 8-9 games (or more), with there scores (and games) the following year to try and gain some indication of a pattern:

Player		First year of 10+ Games		Year following			Improvement

		Average		Games		Average		Games	

Cox		40.9		17		58.7		19		17.8
Hille		49.3		19		62.6		22		13.3
Sandilands	49		18		57.6		20		8.6
Ottens		28.5		12		53		22		24.5
Jolly*		25.9		16		43.1		19		17.2
McIntosh*	51.8		17		80		22		28.2
Brogan*		58.7		20		65.7		20		7
Kreuzer		54.3		20		75.2		22		20.9
Clark*		48.0		11		94.4		22		46.4
Tippet		43.1		18		72.7		22		29.6
Wood		55.5		13		72.8		11		17.3
Lynch		43.3		10		47		21		3.7
					
AVERAGE		45.69		15.92		65.23		20.17		19.54
					
Vickery		44.9		9		???		???	
Naitanui	52.9		10		???		???	
White		48.9		13		???		???

*NOTE:
Jolly – played one season before the one listed above (4 games at 13.7)
McIntosh – played one season before the one listed above (2 games at 43)
Brogan – played two seasons before the one listed above (6 games at 33.2, and one game at 4)
Clark - played two seasons before the one listed above (6 games at 47.6, 4 games at 53.7)

Incredibly, most players improve significantly after their first, with the average improvement a solid 19.54. For a player like naitanui, vickery or white, this would bump them up to around a 70 average which is respectable. If this could be achievable, then they would certainly be good pickups – note how many of the top tier ruckman fit this trend. Also, with many top ruckman struggling with age, injury and selection issues, an average of 75 may actually be respectable enough to be a keeper in the rucks if the player is durable.

Something to think about.

 

[chadleverington]

The counter to nicnat i think is, what impact will cox coming back into the side have on him? Sure it could limit his ruck time, but will that improve his time around the ground? If Seaby goes to sydney will jolly and seaby share the rucks (and white played as a pure forward)?

 

[Virgil]

The counter to nicnat i think is, what impact will cox coming back into the side have on him? Sure it could limit his ruck time, but will that improve his time around the ground?

When Cox wasn't in the side, Quinten Lynch would often ruck ahead of NicNat anyway, so it isn't as if he'll be going from a first ruckman to second string. Personally, I can only see him improving on his disposal count (9.8 per game in 2009) and his kick-to-handball ratio (basically 1:6) and his marks per game (only 1 per game in 2009).

If Seaby goes to sydney will jolly and seaby share the rucks (and white played as a pure forward)?

I think White will be played purely as a forward regardless of whether or not they can attract another experienced ruckman. After Hall's retirement in Round 13, White did no rucking at all (didn't have a single HO in his last 7 games) and Mike Pyke rucked in 6 of the last 8 matches.

 

[Buddyman]

This will be a massive topic this year, I expect this thread to be absolutely massive. Lol it should be interesting I'll follow it intently.

 

[HibSam]

With Warnock back for next season does that mean Kreuzer spends more time up forward? Unsure if that has a positive or negative affect on his scores.
Also, what position do we see Ryder playing once Hille comes back? Back to CHB or still do some around the ground work?

 

[Notorious_29]

With Warnock back for next season does that mean Kreuzer spends more time up forward? Unsure if that has a positive or negative affect on his scores.
Also, what position do we see Ryder playing once Hille comes back? Back to CHB or still do some around the ground work?

Yes

It could do but i doubt it. I expect Kruezer to maintain his average from 2009, not to fall or break out but to stay at about that 75-80 average.

I think we could see Hille in the forward line a lot more with the new found ruck expertise of Ryder. I even wouldnt be suprised to see the ruck duties shared 50/50 between the two.


Just my thoughts anyway. Atm my rucks are Sandilands and Hille, with Warnock on the bench and will watch the pre season to select a rookie ruck.

 

[HibSam]

Just my thoughts anyway. Atm my rucks are Sandilands and Hille, with Warnock on the bench and will watch the pre season to select a rookie ruck.

They're also my ruck combo at the moment. Even if Hille fails it won't be the worst thing as I'm sure many people will have him - of course Hille would need to have a satisfactory pre-season before he's a lock.

 

[Extortion Threat]

Should be half decent bench options next year. ATM I'm locking Sandilands in as one starter. Bench will be Warnock & Lobbe. Unless Port trade for another ruck Lobbe will be the clear #2 ruck. Given the way he's progressed in the SANFL this year I'm looking forward in seeing him play AFL. If he starts the year alright he could easily end up playing all 22 games. DT wise he could average 50-60.

eg. 10-15 hitouts, 10 disposals, 3 marks, 3 tackles

Likes to tackle & has huge endurance (he usually rucks 90% of game time). Warnock is another virtual lock on the bench as long as he's up and running come round 1.

Other starter role looks more difficult to pick. If Hille's playing well pre-season then probably him. He burnt me so badly this year though. I had Krueze this year, not a bad option but I can't see him scoring better then this year. H-Mac will be too expensive, Cox is getting older. If Brennan is listed as a ruck then probably him.