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Emirates Stakes Talk

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PureFooty said:
I hope it's Longport cos I've had a fair crack at that! But thinking Karacatis off it's last run where it was unlucky?
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That's it, Longport is the danger. 4 starts back ran 4th in the Goodwood, ran big figures, Platlet and MOC in the same race run in the Group 1 sprint tomorrow.

First up runs big figures in winning, flat 2nd up with big weight then enormous last Sat when should have finished closer, love the way he attacked the line and again big figures, Fontelina is a good horse, genuine Group 2 level.

He was 4th up into the Goodwood when running his career peak and profiles the same here, I think he is an outstanding bet.

Drawn perfect, win lose or draw I'm happy to be on him, wet track would be my only concern.
 
Main Man said:
In regards to La Amistad she may very well turn out to be a nice horse and she may very well make me look the fool tomorrow but I couldn't possibly back her, her price is surely based on the fact that she is related to Makybe.

She had to go to 2200M against some scrubbers to break her maiden, tells me is she slow, she may have looked good to the eye but her wins do not even register on my figures, which also tells me she isn't very fast.

Sertorious ran Speediness to a length first up over 1200M, Speediness runs in the Emirates and is a live chance, Sertorious was then enormous in the Cranbourne Cup before winning the Bendigo Cup, he is only giving her 1.5

How is she only a couple of points behind him in the market?
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Definitely shorter than it should be due to makybe factor. However based on the pre race interview with Wayne Hawkes before the last start win they definitely think they have a good horse. Basically said slight horse/slow developer has pretty much done all its racing as a four year old. Expect a decent showing tomorrow there are no superstars in that field.
 
Keystone agony said:
I dont like the betting for the emirates race i see plenty of possibilities even Mouro (although now is scratched). Sacred falls i thought could be up there and with rain he also becomes a chance.

Why has Kerrin Mcevoy jumped on Rhythm to Spare after riding Smoking Joey to an unlikely win? thinks its a better horse? or does it work differently.
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Pretty sure Chris Symons rode smoking Joey last time out.
 
R1 Silent Whisper
R2 Electric Fusion
R4 Burnro
R6 Lake Sentatia
R7 Lucky Nine
R8 Boban
R9 Let's Make A Deal

Don't follow, I'm a mug..
Good luck all
 

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Race 1:
Don't ever back horses in maiden races, well that's a lie, rarely. Anyway's i'm always keen on backing something with a little bit of value and that has already raced before. I'll back Boomwaa as it has done it before down the straight, and though it may not be the most talented horse it has a bit of ability from what I saw of it last start. Also going to have a little play on Lockroy who is out of Golden Slipper winner Polar Success who has produced some horses who've gone on to win races.
Betting:
1 unit on each runner.

Race 2:
A couple I want to back in this race, was on New York last start where it was a moral beaten at the valley. With BP on board i'll back him to give this horse every chance. Will also have a play on Out of Coober who is in really good, fit form, drops in grade and if the pace suits he'll be close to winning. Dean yendall is aboard and he will be out to prove that he is still good enough to be riding in town. Finally will also have a unit on Post D'France with Patty Moloney on board who is a seriously talented Jockey, who has won 3 times on Post D'France. Know Patty so I hope he can get the chocolates, won't be long till he is riding in group races.
Betting:
3 Units New York
2 Units EW Out of Coober
1 Unit Post D'France

Race 3:
I want to be on Backbone who's been travelling nicely this prep and relishes flemington, 3rd up, has won 3rd up prior, and is coming out of a couple of good from races. Not an ideal barrier, but with my favorite jockey in the saddle I'll back him to get a good run.
Betting:
4 Units Backbone

Race 4:
Not really keen on this race, Barbed cost me last start (last leg of treble) but was really unlucky and would've won easily had it not nearly one head over heels (Zoustar form isn't too bad either). I also want to have a little play on Consorting who hasn't had much luck in its runs, and has raced against some really good horses (Lion of Belfort and Thermal Current) this is easier and if it can beat the fav there's every chance it will be winning.
3 Units Barbed
1 Unit EW Consorting

Race 5:
Quite keen on Zurella in this race, didn't get to let down in the last race, held up most of the way to the line, and she is overs in this race, got the soft hands of Mr Arnold in this race, rise in distance is a big plus as well. Also want to have a play at Zonza who should be ridden a little closer this time, and I think will relish the rise in distance as well. The big danger is obviously Lake Sententia who does look the one to beat, but with Michelle Payne on board, I get a bit nervous and when their this short I don't like indulging into those odds. Will be risking it purely because I'm to keen on Zurella, and too many units will have to be bet for me to save on it.
Betting:
5 Units EW Zurella
3 Units Zonza

Race 6:
What an absolute ripping race! I'd be happy to have no investment on this race and simply watch some fabulous sprinters go head to head, but I love punting too much so there's no chance of that happening. I can't not back Unpretentious, the horse has a stack of ability, proven down the straight, and if I recall it might have won down the straight at flemington from an outside alley similar time last year ;). Was brilliant winning first up when had excuses, not sure it's good enough just yet, but I'm more than happy to find out!
I also want to back Shamexpress and Moment of Change who are quality sprinters who are also proven down the straight in big races (Newmarket + Lightning), was impressed with Shamexpress last start, finished 9th but wasn't beaten that far, and looked to give buffering a bit of a scare around the bend, but probably ran out of legs and perhaps was let down a bit early. Ollie on board, tick. Moment of Change is also going along better than what it perhaps looks, was wide in the Moir and stuck on, and finished well late in the Manikato.
Finally, because I'm going against the fav here, I want to have a saving unit on Villa Verde with 51.5. Have just the slightest feeling the Manikato form may not be as good as people think with the tightly bunched finish, and with VV getting back into some form (Zoustar) and also being proven down the straight (Cup day last year) I'll have a little play at it as well. Could make a claim for every single horse in this race to be honest, but I'm going for glory here.

Betting:
4 Units Unpretentious
4 Units Moment of Change
2 Units Shamexpress
1 Unit EW Villa Verde

Race 7:
Boban looks very, very good. But I want to be careful because looking good, and being good are to different things. Came from last latest, but the time wasn't that fast and did get it easy, however it won with what looked a fair bit left, so I'm going to say it's the one to beat. So fair play on that. I also want to be on Linton who at his best, with only 56.5kg can certainly give this a shake. Only need the 1 Unit on it, because it's at brilliant odds. The other 2 I'll be on are Strike the Stars who was an absolute moral beaten last start, and I have to back him off that run, it was just too good, and he may have turned the corner. The other I'm quite keen on is Spurtonic who looks a real hot chance, could get it relatively easy in front and will give a good kick and maybe to good with Tommy Berry on board.
Happy to go against Toydini, who I've just got a feeling can't win, Sacred Falls scares me a bit, was on it in the doncaster, and was impressive last start at the Valley, that Pierro form will hold up for years.Mull of Killough is the other danger for mine and as I'm writing this am thinking of putting a unit on it at big odds as it will strip fitter after peaking at the 250m last start.

Betting:
10 Units Boban
3 Units Spurtonic
2 Units Strike the Stars
1 Unit EW Mull of Killough

Race 8:
Perhaps i'm going with my heart in this race, but La Amistad to me looks a very good bet, it's been backed in heavily, which isn't a bad thing, and by dramitcally I mean 17-8.50 which means it's not just because it's the sister to Makybe Diva, but because it's got serious upside and must be going super, and could be ready to tear it apart, always cautious of this stable. Also want to back Forgotten Voice, total forgive last stat, on a good track it will be a genuine chance, a 9 year old now, so just wondering how much it has left, perhaps this year was meant to be a last crack at the cup, which went a miss, and this is a consolidation prize but at 8's I'm happy to find out. Final play is a toss up betweenLet's Make A Deal, and Precedence, LMAD is running very well without winning, and Precedence looks to be in solid form and can certainly run out the trip, stable were smart and said well we can win this race, so we won't go rush things and go to the lexus for a bid to win the cup, so I think it's a reasonable bet at $6-7

Betting:
5 Units La Amistad
4 Units Forgotten Voice (DEAD 4 or better)
4 Units Precedence

Race 9:
Longport, Longport, Longport. Pretty keen on this one, have always kept a close eye on it, performed well 2nd up last prep (2.8L Dear Demi...not bad) and even the prep before, will be in it for a long way, could get a soft time in front and I'm happy to have a few units EW. Want to also be onLimes who has a heap of talent and can be forgiven first up, finally want to have a little play on the ol boy Launay. He's has his problems this prep, but I think Snowden may have it in good order now, and we all know it loves the T/D so will give it one last chance in this.

Betting:
5 Units EW Longport
3 Units Limes
2 Units Launay

Good luck to all, if you follow these, I'm sure you don't need me to tell you keep the stakes small, if I knew what I was talking about, i'd be charging money for my tips, not posting on a free forum! Hopefully we can finish the carnival on a high note in which there looks to be a few ripping races and betting chances.
 
Whos_Your_Caddy said:
Definitely shorter than it should be due to makybe factor. However based on the pre race interview with Wayne Hawkes before the last start win they definitely think they have a good horse. Basically said slight horse/slow developer has pretty much done all its racing as a four year old. Expect a decent showing tomorrow there are no superstars in that field.
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Wayne Hawkes could talk a glass eye to sleep, I actually don't mind him but he can talk some rubbish. He might be right but she has to be at least a preparation away and to be honest she hasn't actually shown me anything to suggest that she is actually any good.

Good ones don't need to run in 2200 Maiden to get the monkey off the back, slow ones do.
 
Gavin Excell said:
I thought I was the only one that had eyed off Longport but all you cats seem to be on it.

Bit of rain currently in southern suburbs of Melbourne a the moment. Track will have some give in it for sure
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Going for Good Prince in the first.......a bit of a long shot at 10-1 but I think it's going to be one off those days.
He's gotten way back in his two starts and given the conditions I think he may just run over the top of the front runners in the big straight at flemington. His last sectionals would suggest he doesn't have a big kick, but where's there's a bit of give some good old fashioned gut running could be the difference.

(4) Good Prince @ 10-1 $ 50 each way
 
I'm just gonna watch & enjoy the day today rather than mulling over every race for a bet after an ordinary carnival.

One multi to bring the house down:
$100 - Shamexpress into Boban into Longport to win just shy of $41k
 

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Making plays on Boban, Zonza, La Amistad and Longport. May just leave the rest and save my cash.
 

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are DFO currently available on betstar for VRC sprint? it says between 11.30-12pm. the current odds dont reflect this so will it just be adjusted on payout?
 
ABitWoofy said:
are DFO currently available on betstar for VRC sprint? it says between 11.30-12pm. the current odds dont reflect this so will it just be adjusted on payout?
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The market is there, you have to go to the double fixed odds market though. It is on the menu on the left hand side, under the racing tab.
 
R2 Post D'France
R3 Bel Thor
R4 Consorting
R5 Lake Sententia
R6 Lucky Nine; Rebel Dane e/w
R7 Speediness; Toydini
R8 Sertorious; Angola e/w
R9 Disciple. small drunken play on something stupid paying about 25 as well.

My tip for get out stakes Bris R8 Theft.

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