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Slattery_20

Slattery_20

Brownlow Medallist
Veteran 10k Posts
Aug 16, 2006
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Essendon
Looking at the start of our fixture:

Round 1 Sun 27 Mar Western Bulldogs Etihad Stadium

Round 2 Sun 3 Apr Sydney ANZ Stadium

Round 3 Sun 10 Apr St Kilda Etihad Stadium

Round 4 Sat 16 Apr Carlton MCG

Round 5 Mon 25 Apr Collingwood MCG

Round 6 Sun 1 May Gold Coast Etihad Stadium

Round 7 Sun 8 May West Coast Etihad Stadium

Round 8 Sat 14 May Brisbane Gabba

Round 9 Sat 21 May Richmond MCG

Round 11 Fri 3 Jun Melbourne MCG
Click to expand...
Can anyone tell me a good reason why we won't win at least 6 of those???

Beaten every one of those sides (bar GC, Bris and WCE: all of whom will likely be pretty poor) either this year or last.
Only two trips, and they're both east coast, where we can actually play. No frikken Adelaide or Subiaco trip (and subsequent flogging) to completely destroy confidence.

I could actually see us in the 8 by the time we have to go West.

{ps. The pragmatist in me reminds me we will definitely lose 4 of the next 6. (Subi, Norf, Cats, AAMI in 12, 13, 15, 17).
Then the trademark Essendon tail-off towards the end of the season as first Davey, then Winderlich, then Gumby, then Myers inevitably get injured}
We haven't lost any (significant) players from last year to this: a chance to build some continuity around Gumby and Williams? Rather than the chop/change of '09 to '10

I could see us, and Hird, turning a few heads in 2011; without even doing a heap better than Knights did.
 
Slattery_20 said:
Looking at the start of our fixture:

Can anyone tell me a good reason why we won't win at least 6 of those???

Beaten every one of those sides (bar GC, Bris and WCE: all of whom will likely be pretty poor) either this year or last.
Only two trips, and they're both east coast, where we can actually play. No frikken Adelaide or Subiaco trip (and subsequent flogging) to completely destroy confidence.

I could actually see us in the 8 by the time we have to go West.

{ps. The pragmatist in me reminds me we will definitely lose 4 of the next 6. (Subi, Norf, Cats, AAMI in 12, 13, 15, 17).
Then the trademark Essendon tail-off towards the end of the season as first Davey, then Winderlich, then Gumby, then Myers inevitably get injured}

We haven't lost any (significant) players from last year to this: a chance to build some continuity around Gumby and Williams? Rather than the chop/change of '09 to '10

I could see us, and Hird, turning a few heads in 2011; without even doing a heap better than Knights did.
Click to expand...

Hell yes!
6-5 would be a great result, I even think we can be 7-4 if everything goes to plan.

Round 1 (Dogs) - IMO we've had their measure as of late even though the W-L column suggests otherwise. The times they've beaten us have when we've been at our lowest ebb and cruelled with injury.

Round 2 (Swans) - Sydney will be favourites but we've got a good record against them in Sydney

Round 3 (Saints) - We simply match up on the Saints really well

Round 4 (Carlton) - Other than last year's abhorration, Carlton is another team we really match up well on.

Round 5 (Pies) - I'm going to pencil in this as a loss, they've just got our measure ATM

Round 6 (GC) - At home, no excuse this should be a win

Round 7 (WCE) - Last year was an abhorration, I'll be absoultely filthy if we can't beat these mugs at home.

Round 8 (Bris) - Away trip, can't see us winning at the Gabba

Round 9 (Rich) - We've got the Tiggies measure lately

Round 10 (Melb) - 50/50
 
Good thread... I haven't really tried to analyse which games we could win/lose yet, due to being so unpredictable against knighta..

Will be interesting to see in the contrast in game style will have us going differently against the tempo sides such as stk etc.
 
The real problem I have with my optimism is that we beat Carlton & St Kilda playing pretty different brands of footy (Carlton more classic stuff, St Kilda using Knights' waves); and Hird will probably be different again.

The question is whether we can still do both of those, and add that missing defensive edge.
I suspect the team balance (as well as tactics) will change in favour of defense, and this'll hurt our attacking side.

Will we be able to go more flexible, week-to-week selections, and still stay settled enough to have that continuity?

{Sides these days seem to be more about having 30 players on your list who can do 2 or 3 jobs each; rather than (say) 5 half-backs and 3 taggers and 4 CHFs and so on.}
 

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Smyth, kelvin: 7-4 from the 10 matches I posted? {rd 10 = bye}

I hope we'll be there: you have quite the track record for optimism tho kelvin!

I think we could manage 10 wins for the year.
Given a standard injury run:
I see us 6-4 for those first 10 I posted.
1-5 (2-4 if the Hawks are poorer than expected) for that tough middle little period.
3-3 for the last 6.

Giving us 10W-12L.
 
Pretty much agree with everything you've said here.

Nearly all winnable, however itll be interesting to see if we still have the edge over the saints, bulldogs, blues and hawks without the kamakaze style of play.

I reckon we might win less of the unwinnables that we have been winning, but start beating the sides that we should (north, west coast, brisbane, port), and ideally have greater overall consistency.
 
Can someone change the thread title to "Essendon to finish top 4 part II"

I can only see about 4 wins there but who knows what the Brisbane's and Sydney's will be like next year.
 

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From memory, in the games against, at the very least, Carlton and St. Kilda, we didn't play free-flowing kamikaze football, they were stop start affairs, so going more defensive won't have much of a difference, still winnable games.

Bulldogs we were smashing and then didn't get smashed despite fielding probably our most experienced side ever.

St. Kilda we just match up well against.

Carlton are our bitches still. The last game no payer gave a shit.

Hawthorn are easily winnable. Match up well there.

Gold Coast will be a win.

We play well in Sydney. 50-50.

Richmond, easy win, soooo overatting themselves.

West Coast, revenge time.

Melbourne, should beat those kids.

Collingwood, obviously tough.

Brisbane, tipped them to bounce back, will be tough there.
 
Slattery_20 said:
Smyth, kelvin: 7-4 from the 10 matches I posted? {rd 10 = bye}

I hope we'll be there: you have quite the track record for optimism tho kelvin!

I think we could manage 10 wins for the year.
Given a standard injury run:
I see us 6-4 for those first 10 I posted.
1-5 (2-4 if the Hawks are poorer than expected) for that tough middle little period.
3-3 for the last 6.

Giving us 10W-12L.
Click to expand...

I must say that my 7-4 rating is a realistic best case scenario so to speak.

I would take the 10W-12L record - with the proviso that we don't get spanked when we lose and our points against improves, and that generally our younger players show improvement.

The above is a big plus in my book.
 
Assuming it's a typo that it says "Round 11" in the op?

Anyway, predictions are useless for us. We are, together with WCE and maybe North, the largest unknown quantity in the AFL. Oh, maybe the GC are ahead of us, but I reckon they'll struggle to get through a full season with so many young kids.

As a result, it's nigh impossible to figure where we'll finish. The "Hird" factor for motivation is laughable. He will inspire the group, at times, but the novelty of a club legend coaching the players wears thin sooner rather than later.

How he goes about managing the list and with mental coaching, and I stress that point again, mental coaching ... will determine how we perform in '11 (injuries and other unforseen matters aside).

Long story short. If we're 8 and 2. Don't be surprised. If we're 2 and 8. Don't be surprised.
 

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Godzke said:
Assuming it's a typo that it says "Round 11" in the op?
Click to expand...

Smyth94 said:
I must say that my 7-4 rating is a realistic best case scenario so to speak.
Click to expand...

I've been trying to make this point, you're all a bit slow.

GC added = 17 teams.
17 teams = odd numbers.
rd 10 = bye.
Hence, up 'til rd 11 = 10 games, so 7-4 isn't possible
 
Slattery_20 said:
I've been trying to make this point, you're all a bit slow.

GC added = 17 teams.
17 teams = odd numbers.
rd 10 = bye.
Hence, up 'til rd 11 = 10 games, so 7-4 isn't possible
Click to expand...

We get an automatic win because of Hirdy.:thumbsu:
 
I gotta agree with Godzke.. There are too many unknowns at this stage. A lot of it depends on what Hird's new game plan would involve, and how well the players can execute it early in the season.
But we do match up pretty well on Saints, Bulldogs, Carlton and Hawthorn.. Only the Pies may be out of reach, but the rest of the games, if we lose, it shouldn't be by more than a couple of goals..
 
Bump.
Slattery_20 said:
I could actually see us in the 8 by the time we have to go West.
Click to expand...
Get around me.

{ps. The pragmatist in me reminds me we will definitely lose 4 of the next 6. (Subi, Norf, Cats, AAMI in 12, 13, 15, 17).
Click to expand...
Update - I actually think we're an even chance in the Subi, Norf & AAMI games.

Then the trademark Essendon tail-off towards the end of the season as first Davey, then Winderlich, then Gumby, then Myers inevitably get injured}
Click to expand...
Jeez I'm good.
 

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