Expansion

[Freomaniac]

Hobart of course, superior city. Of course we need our own AFL team before we need a NRL team. You think Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide breathe footy? The state is obsessed, so obsessed that I reckon Launceston and Hobart could hold a team each.

(Note I am uneducated in economics and how government works)

No Major sporting League will put a team in tassie, not yet anyway...

If there were 350-400,000 living in Hobart, it will be considered. At least cricket gives the Tasmanians some Justice. have there been any NRL games played down at Tassie before?

 

[____]

If there were 350-400,000 living in Hobart, it will be considered. At least cricket gives the Tasmanians some Justice. have there been any NRL games played down at Tassie before?

A pre-season match between Storm and Broncos got 18k to North Hobart Oval IIRC. Don't think any normal season games have been played there though.

 

[Watson_my_mind]

No Major sporting League will put a team in tassie, not yet anyway...

If there were 350-400,000 living in Hobart, it will be considered. At least cricket gives the Tasmanians some Justice. have there been any NRL games played down at Tassie before?

Lol there are 40K more people in Hobart than there are Geelong and Townsville (North Queensland Cowboys), surely that would prove adequate population. Launceston I understand though I take it back.

And yeah a good turnout to a storm game ^^

 

[Fire Storm]

You can Say Adelaide is insignificant. Perth on the other hand can be good. Considering that WA is the fastest growing state % wise. WAs population grew 3% last year compared to the national average of 2%.

WAs population is around 2.5 million and increased by 83,000 last year. Going by that trend WAs population will be around 3-3.5 million in 10 years. Easily enough for a team in Perth.

Compared to another Brisbane team, or another NZ team or even Central Coast, AFL dominate cities of Perth and Adelaide are insignificant.

They'll be no expansion for some time anyway....unless Cronulla fold which is on the cards with all their dramas.

 

[Northern_Union]

The NRL will expand within the next 2 years.

 

[Fire Storm]

Be pretty dumb idea if they did.

 

[Northern_Union]

In your opinion.

 

[robbieando]

Last warning Fire Storm. Stay on topic or face a ban

 

[rabbitoh21]

The NRL may not necessarily have to expand per se, but they do need to expand across the country. Otherwise the ever increasing lure of the A League, as well as the always strong AFL will cripple the NRL more, especially when the NRL is crowded with headlines and scandals. As much as I love my league the NRL is in damage control at the moment and the last weeks are showing the cracks.

 

[Northern_Union]

I see the PNG bid has kicked up a gear with Brad Tassell giving interviews on the subject. From memory the PNG bid have got a team into the NQL comp, using it as a stepping stone.

 

[bunsen burner]

The NRL may not necessarily have to expand per se, but they do need to expand across the country.

But they need to get it right. During SL they tried to copy the AFL and throw teams in Perth and Adelaide. They folded because the governing body didn't have cash flow to support them. This is going back to the days when League naievely thought they could match the AFL.

The NRL will need more teams come next TV rights to increase the amount the TV stations pay but I think going into AFL territory is too risky in the short term. Central Coast, Brisbane, or Wellington are far better options.

Otherwise the ever increasing lure of the A League,

The A-League is no threat. It's a c-grade comp. They're not going to have a banner year like 2012 every year. Until we can pay players $10m a year and have
EPL standard players playing locally, the A-League is going nowhere. It's a feeder comp.

as well as the always strong AFL will cripple the NRL more,

The NRL are way more of a threat to themselves than the AFL are. I know so many people who grew up on NRL but for whatever reason are just not interested anymore.

especially when the NRL is crowded with headlines and scandals.

Apart from the doping scandal, football codes will always have off field scandals from drugs, drinking, beating women etc. The NRL have far bigger concerns.

 

[bunsen burner]

I see the PNG bid has kicked up a gear with Brad Tassell giving interviews on the subject. From memory the PNG bid have got a team into the NQL comp, using it as a stepping stone.

Hypothetically, if the NRL have a PNG team (they won't) and another NZ team, and they want to go into Perth, would they be stretching the travel too far? Get expensive pretty quick and League clubs aren't exactly over flowing with money.

 

[rabbitoh21]

But they need to get it right. During SL they tried to copy the AFL and throw teams in Perth and Adelaide. They folded because the governing body didn't have cash flow to support them. This is going back to the days when League naievely thought they could match the AFL.

Adelaide failed because the ARL wanted Melbourne not Adelaide. With the right support they could have been the team the Storm have become. Perth is ready for the NRL. It just needs someone to give it an opportunity. Going down to 14 teams killed off the "National" rugby league in its first 3 years of being "National", not necessarily lack of support. The NRL cannot compete with the AFL at this present time, but that doesn't mean things won't change in the future.

The NRL will need more teams come next TV rights to increase the amount the TV stations pay but I think going into AFL territory is too risky in the short term. Central Coast, Brisbane, or Wellington are far better options.

The NRL does not need more teams but it needs access to better markets. As much as I love Sydney teams, the NRL needs to tap new markets. Central Coast is a poor option for "expansion", too little population and no real benefit to putting the team there in a business sense. Newcastle and the Sea Eagles will only stand to lose, the Bears won't gain anything at this point in time. Brisbane Broncos would be hurt by a second Brisbane team without much benefit to that second team. If you want to bring up $L then need you look much further than the Crushers and their success (or lack thereof) to see why a second Brisbane team isn't a good idea. Can New Zealand support a second team? Who knows, but I doubt it, especially in the near future if $BW goes back to the AB's.

The A-League is no threat. It's a c-grade comp. They're not going to have a banner year like 2012 every year. Until we can pay players $10m a year and have
EPL standard players playing locally, the A-League is going nowhere. It's a feeder comp.

The A-League is no threat? Considering this country is only getting more ethnically diverse, and the Football Federation are aggressively chasing broadcast and sponsorship deals, that sentence is quite naive. "Wogball" is a thing of the past, more and more Anglo-Saxon Australians are embracing the Socceroos and their local club, and considering the participation numbers of football in Australia it will only get bigger. One thing of note is how many of these new 5-a-side and small-sided football complexes are opening, especially in Sydney. More and more people are looking to football in the summer, especially those less inclined to the cricket. And as the FFA Cup gets going and the FFA get closer to a pyramid league system, more and more people will get behind a team, especially when their rugby/AFL clubs are off on their holidays.

The NRL are way more of a threat to themselves than the AFL are. I know so many people who grew up on NRL but for whatever reason are just not interested anymore.

The AFL are always a threat. Buddy Franklin, the AFL's answer to LeBron James, is playing on this side of the Barassi Line now. That's big. That's $BW to the Roosters big. Take a look at the attendances the Roosters had and now have (19500 avg. in 2013 to 12500 avg. in 2012) thanks to that marquee signing. As the Giants mature and become competitive, the ever increasing Western Sydney market will eventually become super significant to the success of both codes. Once the Storm enter a decline (eventually) and the Tigers, Eels and Panthers reach the bottom of their declines, the AFL will definitely pose a threat. And by the way, in your post you also mentioned in passing how the NRL will never be able to compete with AFL, yet you say the NRL are a bigger threat to themselves? If the AFL aren't the NRL's biggest threat then the NRL would probably have teams in Adelaide and Perth still.

Apart from the doping scandal, football codes will always have off field scandals from drugs, drinking, beating women etc. The NRL have far bigger concerns.

Watch for more betting scandals and the like soon, people are starting to develop conspiracy theories in the wake of the Grand Final.

 

[bunsen burner]

Perth is ready for the NRL. It just needs someone to give it an opportunity.

This is an amazingly naive statement. Coupled with "ready", the NRL will need to budget $100m for the first 5 years, then be pretty confident they can commit $20m per year for 15 years after that.

Perth is no walk up start. It's no more ready than it was when the Reds were there. It needs sustained financial support from the NRL to ride the bumps it will endure through the first 2 decades.

You know Melbourne Storm lose money, right? This is par for the course for a code breaking into a competitor's heartland.

Going down to 14 teams killed off the "National" rugby league in its first 3 years of being "National", not necessarily lack of support.

Lack of funding killed it. Lack of funding is a function of lack of support

The NRL cannot compete with the AFL at this present time, but that doesn't mean things won't change in the future.

I don't ever think it will be in the same ball park. I think League has potential to be a profitable and viable national game with a team in Perth and Adelaide, as well as across the eastern seaboard where it is traditionally strong.

As much as I love Sydney teams, the NRL needs to tap new markets.

It needs to sure up it's heartland.

Central Coast is a poor option for "expansion", too little population and no real benefit to putting the team there in a business sense. Newcastle and the Sea Eagles will only stand to lose, the Bears won't gain anything at this point in time.

How will Manly lose? I don't think there is any overwhelming support for Manly on the Central Coast. Even if there was, I doubt many would travel to Brooky for games, so there would be no loss. All that would happen is they swap from watching Manly/Newcastle on TV to Bears.

The Central Coast isn't about finding new fans. It's about inserting another team with little risk of failure but plenty of upside in TV rights revenue from an extra game per week.

Brisbane Broncos would be hurt by a second Brisbane team without much benefit to that second team.

You are talking absolute shit.

The big mistake has already been made - the NRL plonking only 1 team in Brisbane. They have left it too long to be fixed, but they must start making inroads. Having 1 team in a city of 2m people is utterly insane. Brisbane would suffer reduced revenues but so be it. The NRL must make the decision for the better of the game. Tying the second brisbane team to Ipswich needs to be explored (ie feasibility study)

If you want to bring up $L then need you look much further than the Crushers and their success (or lack thereof) to see why a second Brisbane team isn't a good idea.

All I need to look at is a League heartland with 2m people to know having only 1 team is the height of stupidity. The NRL need to find a way of inserting a new team that people will swap from the Broncos.

Can New Zealand support a second team? Who knows, but I doubt it, especially in the near future if $BW goes back to the AB's.

What SBW does makes little difference. On one hand you are saying the NRL needs to find new markets but you are writing off NZ?

The A-League is no threat? Considering this country is only getting more ethnically diverse, and the Football Federation are aggressively chasing broadcast and sponsorship deals, that sentence is quite naive. "Wogball" is a thing of the past, more and more Anglo-Saxon Australians are embracing the Socceroos and their local club, and considering the participation numbers of football in Australia it will only get bigger. One thing of note is how many of these new 5-a-side and small-sided football complexes are opening, especially in Sydney. More and more people are looking to football in the summer, especially those less inclined to the cricket. And as the FFA Cup gets going and the FFA get closer to a pyramid league system, more and more people will get behind a team, especially when their rugby/AFL clubs are off on their holidays.

You really do have little understanding of why punters follow sport.

I live in Sydney. I like soccer (prefer it to League hands down). My son plays soccer. I live in Sydney's soccer heartland. Participation is way higher than league (one junior club has 2000 kids) where I live. They play soccer as kids and grow up following League. Why? Because they can walk down to Shark park and watch local heroes like Rogers, ET, Gallen etc play. To watch elite soccer they have to get up at 5am to watch the EPL or Serie A.

Whilst soccer is booming and will continue to grow participation wise, the NSL are not going anywhere as we are a feeder league. Why would you go to watch Archie Thompson if you can go watch Garry Ablett, Buddy Franklin, Billy Slater, Ben Barba, or SBW?

The AFL are always a threat. Buddy Franklin, the AFL's answer to LeBron James, is playing on this side of the Barassi Line now. That's big. That's $BW to the Roosters big. Take a look at the attendances the Roosters had and now have (19500 avg. in 2013 to 12500 avg. in 2012) thanks to that marquee signing. As the Giants mature and become competitive, the ever increasing Western Sydney market will eventually become super significant to the success of both codes.

Again, you don't really understand what the threat is and how big it is.

1. All Buddy will do is increase Swans support. Once that new stadium is build they might get an extra 3000 members, and generate interest from people who haven't really been seduced by AFL yet. That means some people who don't follow NRL, and some who do. Very few will dump the NRL for the AFL. They will just start watching 2 codes.

That really doesn't have a big effect on the NRL. The NRL's biggest threat is it's own incompetence. Not sure why they are so worried and resentful of the AFL? Need to get their house in order.

2. GWS will take 20 years to get to where the Swans are. 25k members in a bad season with 25k crowd at each match. Then there will be maybe 100k non member fans, and as you whittle away you get to the "I support Cantebury, GWS, Wanderers" types. This will weaken the NRL a little bit but as long as the NRL look after their own product, they will stay the dominant code in Sydney.

3. The biggest threat the AFL provides is in attracting talent. There will be no more poaching of Hunt and Falou types. They were well engineered publicity stunts. The threat is that the AFL and their chequebook will be approaching every gifted sports person in League heartland when they are about 14. The AFL have already got AFL goalposts up all over Sydney. They have started infiltrating the private school system here in Sydney. A lot of resentment from League fans but it's nothing but envy. As if League wouldn't do it given the chance (that is questionable to be honest going by the inept dinosaurs who hold sway over how League is run).

League just needs to get competent and optimise their opportunity.

Once the Storm enter a decline (eventually) and the Tigers, Eels and Panthers reach the bottom of their declines, the AFL will definitely pose a threat.

Storm are neither here nor there. The AFL has nothing to do with it. When the Storm have their downturn, support will drop off. Not because people go jump to the AFL, but just because people take a breather when their team are shit. The test will be the NRL's ability and willingness to support them financially through tough times. Not sure if News Ltd still foot the bill?

And by the way, in your post you also mentioned in passing how the NRL will never be able to compete with AFL,

Very hard to see it happening. The NRL has a working class culture and until they changes they will always be behind. Always.

yet you say the NRL are a bigger threat to themselves?

Go read my long winded thread titled State of the Game. I'm astounded at how incompetent as a code the NRL are. Inept dinosaurs have too much influence and it holds the code back.

If the AFL aren't the NRL's biggest threat then the NRL would probably have teams in Adelaide and Perth still.

That's the wrong way of looking at it. Let me show you how the AFL think about it:

They know Sydney is League heartland. They don't think they have "beat" or "go to war" with another code. All they have to do is find 40k members per club. That's it. A city of 4m, they need to find 40k Swans members, and get junior participation. 2m people in WS, again they need to find 40k members over 20 years. Contrary to belief, the AFL aren't trying to close down the NRL. They are just getting a foot in the market.

The NRL needs to go into perth and Adelaide, stick it out for 20 years and build a following. What the AFL do makes little difference.

Watch for more betting scandals and the like soon, people are starting to develop conspiracy theories in the wake of the Grand Final.

I've been on this since mid year. My issue is this:

Too many times in 2013 I have seen the video ref make absolute howlers. If a ref makes a mistake it is easy to see why. But someone with the benefit of time and replays constantly making wrong decisions........

I smell a rat. A big f***ing gambling corruption rat. How Elias and that other player manager weren't convicted is beyond me.

I think that will be the big story of 2014. Also think an elite player will be disgraced over the ASADA scandal.

 

[Northern_Union]

Adelaide failed because the ARL wanted Melbourne not Adelaide. With the right support they could have been the team the Storm have become. Perth is ready for the NRL. It just needs someone to give it an opportunity. Going down to 14 teams killed off the "National" rugby league in its first 3 years of being "National", not necessarily lack of support. The NRL cannot compete with the AFL at this present time, but that doesn't mean things won't change in the future.


The NRL does not need more teams but it needs access to better markets. As much as I love Sydney teams, the NRL needs to tap new markets. Central Coast is a poor option for "expansion", too little population and no real benefit to putting the team there in a business sense. Newcastle and the Sea Eagles will only stand to lose, the Bears won't gain anything at this point in time. Brisbane Broncos would be hurt by a second Brisbane team without much benefit to that second team. If you want to bring up $L then need you look much further than the Crushers and their success (or lack thereof) to see why a second Brisbane team isn't a good idea. Can New Zealand support a second team? Who knows, but I doubt it, especially in the near future if $BW goes back to the AB's.



The A-League is no threat? Considering this country is only getting more ethnically diverse, and the Football Federation are aggressively chasing broadcast and sponsorship deals, that sentence is quite naive. "Wogball" is a thing of the past, more and more Anglo-Saxon Australians are embracing the Socceroos and their local club, and considering the participation numbers of football in Australia it will only get bigger. One thing of note is how many of these new 5-a-side and small-sided football complexes are opening, especially in Sydney. More and more people are looking to football in the summer, especially those less inclined to the cricket. And as the FFA Cup gets going and the FFA get closer to a pyramid league system, more and more people will get behind a team, especially when their rugby/AFL clubs are off on their holidays.



The AFL are always a threat. Buddy Franklin, the AFL's answer to LeBron James, is playing on this side of the Barassi Line now. That's big. That's $BW to the Roosters big. Take a look at the attendances the Roosters had and now have (19500 avg. in 2013 to 12500 avg. in 2012) thanks to that marquee signing. As the Giants mature and become competitive, the ever increasing Western Sydney market will eventually become super significant to the success of both codes. Once the Storm enter a decline (eventually) and the Tigers, Eels and Panthers reach the bottom of their declines, the AFL will definitely pose a threat. And by the way, in your post you also mentioned in passing how the NRL will never be able to compete with AFL, yet you say the NRL are a bigger threat to themselves? If the AFL aren't the NRL's biggest threat then the NRL would probably have teams in Adelaide and Perth still.


Watch for more betting scandals and the like soon, people are starting to develop conspiracy theories in the wake of the Grand Final.

If you want to know if a second NZ can succeed you only have to look at four factors. 1 infrastructure, 2 history, 3 crowds, 4 number of players nationally and the number of players in the ESL and NRL.
On all four counts a second NRL side passes all four factors with flying colours.

 

[rabbitoh21]

If you want to know if a second NZ can succeed you only have to look at four factors. 1 infrastructure, 2 history, 3 crowds, 4 number of players nationally and the number of players in the ESL and NRL.
On all four counts a second NRL side passes all four factors with flying colours.

To be honest, based off the crowd at the Wellington game this year, they are the only market out of the three above where I can see a team working. Expansion has been suspended obviously by the NRL, the only thing we'll see until the next TV negotiations are potentially going to be relocations or folding. The NRL only have 8 games on TV until the next rights so this discussion will all just be discussion until then. I think Perth and maybe Wellington are the next NRL markets, I can't see the Bears playing out of Gosford, as much as I'd love to see the Bears back.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk - now Free

 

[Fire Storm]

To be honest, based off the crowd at the Wellington game this year, they are the only market out of the three above where I can see a team working. Expansion has been suspended obviously by the NRL, the only thing we'll see until the next TV negotiations are potentially going to be relocations or folding. The NRL only have 8 games on TV until the next rights so this discussion will all just be discussion until then. I think Perth and maybe Wellington are the next NRL markets, I can't see the Bears playing out of Gosford, as much as I'd love to see the Bears back.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk - now Free

Whoa dude! You can't say that. I've stated that and I'm facing a ban. Tsk tsk.

 

[Fire Storm]

Pretty stupid to expand when in its 'heartland', most clubs can only average 15,000 or so at best.....if they're doing well. Time to remove the dinosaurs and focus on strengthening its current comp.

Whatever they did in the late 80's worked. Even AFL officials were concerned. The ARL was on a roll....and blew it big time. Expanding willy nilly for the sake of expansion will fail.....again.

[Mod Edit - Read the rules and then ask me why]