Experience - what experience?

[BigCat2]

These are the stats of our remaining 37 players (including elevated rookies)

PLAYER GAMES
Michael Voss 289
Nigel Lappin 257
Chris Johnson 252
Chris Scott 213
Mal Michael 201
Simon Black 191
Daniel Bradshaw 181
Luke Power 176
Tim Notting 156
Jonathan Brown 117
Robert Copeland 109
Jamie Charman 88
Ash McGrath 83
Beau McDonald 83
Ben Fixter 46
Justin Sherman 41
Jared Brennan 38
Troy Selwood 33
Joel Macdonald 32
Jed Adcock 32
Anthony Corrie 31
Richard Hadley 27
Matthew Moody 25
Daniel Merrett 24
Michael Rischitelli 22
Josh Drummond 21
Jason Roe 15
Joel Patfull 15
Scott Harding 14
Cheynee Stiller 13
Rhan Hooper 11
Cameron Wood 8
Mitch Clark 6
Wayde Mills 4
Colm Begley 2
Marcus Allan 1
Pat Garner 0

200+ = 5
151-200 = 4
101-150 = 2
51-100 = 3
21-50 = 12
0-20 = 11

Total games = 2857
Average games per player = 77.2
If Voss and Mal leave, that leaves the average at 67.6 games. That's roughly 3 seasons of games.

I initially was thinking that we might be a chance at making the 8 next year if everybody stays fit, but having thought some more I'm not so confident any more. In particular, have a look at the number of players who have played less than 50 games: 23, that's more than half the list.

We also have 5 players who have played more than 200 games and probably past their absolute peaks, but only 9 players between 51-200 games, the bracket that should include players in their prime.

Assuming our young bunch continue to get reasonable number of games, in 2 years they'd have played more like 60-70 games. They'll probably need to develop that far to provide us with a core that is strong enough to consistently feature in finals again. A few of the young guns have already shown plenty eg Sherman, Selwood, but it takes more than a few individuals to play consistently.

Of course, we may get a few readymade players via the draft to provide some experience.

I just had a look over the list again, and notice a huge gap between 40-odd and 80-odd games. That gap exactly divides our list into premiership and non-premiership players. I guess that's what happens when you stall the development of the squad to achieve sustained success.

 

[Snuka]

Good stuff there Bigcat...your got a lot more patience than me.

Interesting stats, says we are a very inexperienced side and it makes me thing that we can't really afford to lose any more experienced guys.

On a positive note, if you have a look at the guys that are between 90 odd and 200 they have been our best players this year and seem comitted to the club. Ie. Black, Power, Brown, Charman.

That said, if I hear any Lions supporters bragging on the main board about how we are a young and exciting side with lots of potential...Snuka be angry!

 

[Grimreepah]

Yeah, we have a core group of players who have played 20 to 40 games and over the years they will spend a lot of time playing together, which will help down the track.

I tend to give players 50 to 80 games before they start playing consistent footy at their potential, so it will probably be another 2 or 3 years before this group hits their straps.

Obviously we are rebuilding and in theory we shouldn't be in contention next year. But there will come a day when a team will defy the odds and win the premiership when they theoretically "shouldn't". Next year is our chance to be that team.

 

[Grimreepah]

That said, if I hear any Lions supporters bragging on the main board about how we are a young and exciting side with lots of potential...Snuka be angry!

Yeah. Sorry about that

 

[BigCat2]

Snuka, if you mean patience as in compiling the data, well I'll let you in on my secret - Google.

Yeah, having 23 players who are in the 0-50 bracket suggests a core of players that our future team should be formed around. This is a sufficiently large group that the loss of a few (eg Moody) won't be too detrimental. What they need is having experienced hands around, and to be given extended runs.

I like the idea of us challenging for the flag next year, but IMO that's fantasy with supporters' tinted glasses. 2008 would perhaps be less fanciful.

 

[Snuka]

Yeah. Sorry about that

Just a warning this time, but do it again and you'll get one of these...

 

[BigCat2]

What did Grim do? Sounds like I missed the fun...

 

[Snuka]

What did Grim do? Sounds like I missed the fun...

Nothing in particular...I think he's just a little more active on the main board with supporters revel in their belief that were going downhill and will be at the bottom for a while. Is that fair Grim? Anyway, keep it up...I'm too willing to give people the benefit of the doubt. Damn Japanese politeness.

Agreed that you wouldn't be thinking that we would be a chance for the 8 with our current list. These guys will get better though, Sherman, Rischa, Adcock, Drummond etc are IMO 'modern day' players which we need. There is one man (and we all know who it is) which may make the difference between a 13th or 14th finish and a possible 8th or 9th. Not neccessarily a good thing, but there is no more important player to their team.

 

[Grimreepah]

I like the idea of us challenging for the flag next year, but IMO that's fantasy with supporters' tinted glasses. 2008 would perhaps be less fanciful.

So we just give up

I know the odds are drastically against us, but it is that very reason that if we were able to pull something out of the hat it would be all the more special. Sooner or later someone is going to do the unthinkable (ie. come from nowhere to win) - now is our chance to be that team.

Just a warning this time, but do it again and you'll get one of these...

Phew. I was worried you would give me one of these

 

[BigCat2]

No, not giving up, just being a little bit more practical.

If we string together 9 or 10 wins next season, and our youngsters all show considerable improvement, I wouldn't be too upset. If we can get in the finals it's a bonus.

 

[BigCat2]

Nothing in particular...I think he's just a little more active on the main board with supporters revel in their belief that were going downhill and will be at the bottom for a while. Is that fair Grim? Anyway, keep it up...I'm too willing to give people the benefit of the doubt. Damn Japanese politeness.

Aye, when I last visited Japan 2 years ago, I loved how everybody was so polite and bowing left right and centre.

 

[Grimreepah]

No, not giving up, just being a little bit more practical.

If we string together 9 or 10 wins next season, and our youngsters all show considerable improvement, I wouldn't be too upset. If we can get in the finals it's a bonus.

You've got me all wrong.

 

[sherminator]

Good complimation. We don't have enough '101-150 gamers', they're young and experienced players thatd lead the next generation into premierships.

So far we have the new end of the scale aplenty '21-50' and the old end of the scale '151-200+', who wont be there when the '21-50's are at their peaks and ready to win premierships.

 

[Snuka]

Aye, when I last visited Japan 2 years ago, I loved how everybody was so polite and bowing left right and centre.

Hehe, went back to Oz for a couple of weeks earlier this year...and was surprised how bloody rude to me my friends were.

 

[Snuka]

Good complimation. We don't have enough '101-150 gamers', they're young and experienced players thatd lead the next generation into premierships.

So far we have the new end of the scale aplenty '21-50' and the old end of the scale '151-200+', who wont be there when the '21-50's are at their peaks and ready to win premierships.

I think the good thing is that those guys that are middle-aged (in football years) are our best and have had good years.

 

[BigCat2]

There are currently 27 players on that list who are 25 years or younger.

Out of our more experienced players, it's true that Vossy and a few others definitely won't be around when we can have a decent tilt at the flag again, but some of our premiership stars might have the chance to second-dip:

Black, Bradshaw and Notting are 27
Power and McDonald are 26
Brown and Charman, our two best big men this year are only 24 even though it feels like they've been around forever

While they'll have gotten on a bit in a few years, they'll still be very good when our youngsters have matured enough.

 

[Grimreepah]

What was the average age and the average number of games played by our premiership list in 01?

Thanks in advance BigCat

 

[sherminator]

There are currently 27 players on that list who are 25 years or younger.

Out of our more experienced players, it's true that Vossy and a few others definitely won't be around when we can have a decent tilt at the flag again, but some of our premiership stars might have the chance to second-dip:

Black, Bradshaw and Notting are 27
Power and McDonald are 26
Brown and Charman, our two best big men this year are only 24 even though it feels like they've been around forever

While they'll have gotten on a bit in a few years, they'll still be very good when our youngsters have matured enough.

I can see Black, Bradshaw, Power, Brown & Charman in our next Grand Final campaign. It is unlikely Possum and McDonald (moreso) will be though.

Its just what I think.

 

[BigCat2]

What was the average age and the average number of games played by our premiership list in 01?

Thanks in advance BigCat

Since I have no idea what our entire playing list looked like, I've only been able to collect data for the 22 that played in the 2001 GF.

The data below is for the players at the start of the 2001 season (ie Robert Copeland who made his debut in 2001 started with 0 games).

AGE PLAYER GAMES
32 Alastair Lynch 226
29 Marcus Ashcroft 222
29 Shaun Hart 186
28 Darryl White 179
26 Michael Voss 151
25 Nigel Lappin 151
28 Martin Pike 141
25 Chris Johnson 133
25 Justin Leppitsch 129
25 Chris Scott 126
24 Jason Akermanis 117
27 Craig McRae 113
25 Clark Keating 65
24 Mal Michael 61
22 Daniel Bradshaw 54
22 Simon Black 50
25 Brad Scott 49
21 Luke Power 47
21 Beau McDonald 28
22 Tim Notting 28
19 Jonathan Brown 13
20 Robert Copeland 0

Average games / player of the 22: 103.1
Average age of the 22: 24.7

In short, this is what our squad looked like before we embarked on that ground breaking 2001 season.

Now I remember there being a quote in 2001 about our average player age being 23, but that figure was lower because of the younger blokes who didn't play in the premiership team.

The average games of around 100 and the average age of 25 are pretty much what you'd call perfect in terms of having the best of both prime form and experience. You'll also notice that most of the 22 were within a few years of each other in terms of age, meaning that most of them had been playing together for 5-6 years, and really gelled as a group.

Have a look at that list. Our offseason recruits in Mal Michael and Martin Pike were both very important. Particularly Mal - without him we couldn't have matched up both Lloyd and Lucas.

Also we had some relative rookies in Power, McDonald, Brown, Notting and Copeland. Power (3 goals) and Brown (2 goals) were both very important towards our GF win that year. Without Brown, we wouldn't have had the forward structure that served us so well in 2001-2004. Notting was also a key as he was used as a shock weapon in the 2nd half, and I still remember one of the passages where we took the ball the length of the field under enormous tackling pressure, with Notting being involved twice, using his fresh legs to burst free of tackles, resulting in a Power goal. So you never know when a youngster can jump in and do a job, although admittedly it'd be hard to unearth another Jonathan Brown in a hurry.

So looking at that, I'd say assuming everything goes right, in 3 years time, 2009 will be the new 2001. Whether we can develop guns of the calibre of the Fab Four, the awesome spine and the bash-n-crash ruck division, will determine whether we'll be good enough to win, or close but not close enough. That team which contested in 2001 GF can only be described as awesome, and all of them were at the height of their powers, except for a few rookies which as good as they already were, would go on to become even better players such as Power and Brown.
I don't think we'll see a side similar to that one for a while, but I'm confident we can still build a side that can have a serious crack at a premiership, and even go back-to-back if things fall our way. The '3peat' will be the stuff of legend and probably not repeated for a long, long time.

Another advantage of coming into our prime in 2009 is that the current WCE side will be too old to beat us. We'll probably be squaring off against sides like Hawthorn and Richmond, and our old enemies Port Adelaide.

 

[Grimreepah]

Well done BigCat. You've outdone yourself

I was expecting you to just tell me where I could stick it

 

[Vipertooth]

2009 Here we come

 

[BigCat2]

Well done BigCat. You've outdone yourself

I was expecting you to just tell me where I could stick it

Well, you're most welcome to stick yourself if you'd like to.

 

[BigCat2]

In light of the recent retirements, this is what our list looks like:

Age Player Games

30 Lappin 257
30 Johnson 252
30 Scott, C 213
27 Black 191
27 Bradshaw 181
26 Power 176
27 Notting 156
24 Brown 117
25 Copeland 109
24 Charman 88
26 McDonald 83
23 McGrath 83
25 Fixter 46
19 Sherman 41
22 Brennan 38
22 Selwood 33
20 Adcock 32
21 Macdonald 32
22 Corrie 31
23 Hadley 27
21 Moody 25
21 Merrett 24
20 Rischitelli 22
23 Drummond 21
21 Patfull 15
22 Roe (R) 15
20 Harding (R) 14
20 Stiller (R) 13
18 Hooper 11
19 Wood 8
18 Clark, M 6
19 Mills 4
20 Begley (R) 2
20 Allan 1
23 Clark, L (R) 0
19 Garner 0
20 Hamill (R) 0
*Voss: not playing, but will take up 1 spot on senior list

Total = 38

It's conceivable that Johnson and Scott will be gone at the end of next year too. Are we like the least experienced team in the AFL or what?

 

[Grimreepah]

It's conceivable that Johnson and Scott will be gone at the end of next year too. Are we like the least experienced team in the AFL or what?

Most of the pain is over now. We are now at the stage where there is not many people coming to retirement. I think Lappin still has quite a few years left but Scott and Johnson probably won't be around for very long. Should be able to pretty much keep this group together for the next 4 years or so.

 

[dlanod]

...
24 Charman 88
26 McDonald 83
23 McGrath 83
25 Fixter 46
19 Sherman 41
...

That's an insane gap in there. Suddenly dropping 40 games, or half their experience.