Fight to Round 10

[TimeFor11]

We've copped a tough draw up until Round 10 this season and our position on the ladder til that time is likely to be below our realistic standing in the competition. Many people would have us sitting at 3-7 come Round 10. If that does arise it is far from over and our playing group must stay upbeat.

R4 - Geel (A)
R5 - WCE (Melb)
R6 - PA (A)
R7 - SYD (Melb)
R8 - ESS (Melb)
R9 - HAW (Melb)
R10 - STK (Melb)

Now we all give ourselves a chance in each and every game. However the non Richmond football world would suggest a loss to Geel, WCE, and Hawthorn. Therefore we must secure at least 2 wins out of PA, Syd, Ess, and StK to set us up for the R11-R17 period.

R11 - Fre (Melb)
R12 - GWS (A)
R13 - Bye
R14 - Adel (A)
R15 - Melb (Melb)
R16 - GC (A)
R17 - NMFC (Melb)

During the above period every game holds at least a 50/50 chance for us. The expectation would be to secure 5/6 wins here leaving us at 8-8 at Round 17 even if we don't get the wins early.

This competition is so bloody close and some poorer clubs (Adelaide) have better draws which makes it even harder. So if we can snatch a couple of wins and turn at 5-5 then the giant may actually wake for some September action this year.

What is your expectation come Round 10?

 

[carn tigez]

Good post. I think it's just too hard, this year I can't see us staying good enough through the whole year to not drop games that could prove crucial at the end (Crows, North).

If we win those 2 then we could lose to Port or Freo or Brisbane to make up for it. I just don't think we're good enough yet to play to our ability for the entire season.

Have been spruiking our finals chances all year but when I see it on paper I find it a lot less likely.

 

[Bird Man]

with kangas and crows having GWS and Gc 4 times (see richo rant) they will take top 8 easy. Teams we need to beat and do better than are saints, Bombers, freo and what seems like geelong !

win these games and win the ones we should win aka port gc and gws and we will be in the 8 any less and 9th here we come

 

[santa claws]

We've copped a tough draw up until Round 10 this season and our position on the ladder til that time is likely to be below our realistic standing in the competition. Many people would have us sitting at 3-7 come Round 10. If that does arise it is far from over and our playing group must stay upbeat.

R4 - Geel (A)
R5 - WCE (Melb)
R6 - PA (A)
R7 - SYD (Melb)
R8 - ESS (Melb)
R9 - HAW (Melb)
R10 - STK (Melb)

Now we all give ourselves a chance in each and every game. However the non Richmond football world would suggest a loss to Geel, WCE, and Hawthorn. Therefore we must secure at least 2 wins out of PA, Syd, Ess, and StK to set us up for the R11-R17 period.

R11 - Fre (Melb)
R12 - GWS (A)
R13 - Bye
R14 - Adel (A)
R15 - Melb (Melb)
R16 - GC (A)
R17 - NMFC (Melb)

During the above period every game holds at least a 50/50 chance for us. The expectation would be to secure 5/6 wins here leaving us at 8-8 at Round 17 even if we don't get the wins early.

This competition is so bloody close and some poorer clubs (Adelaide) have better draws which makes it even harder. So if we can snatch a couple of wins and turn at 5-5 then the giant may actually wake for some September action this year.

What is your expectation come Round 10?

best case scenario 3 and 7. worst case 1 and 9.

 

[pebblestone]

Nice post. I share your optimism re. finals aspirations this year, however my concern is depth. With such a young side there is no way that we will be able to field best 22 all season and unfortunately the guys who will come in to replace injured/out of form players are a level below.

My view on best available waiting to come in:
KPB: McGuane - Like it or not he is next in line. We all know what he brings to the table.
Astbury - I felt he was developing nicely until he did his knee but who knows how soon he will be right and how long he will take to get up to match fitness.
Post - IMO a liability. Has the body ok but looks lost half the time, gets found out most of the time and can't hold his spot when the heat is on. Needs to find something this year or I reckon his papers will be stamped (not sure of contract status).

Small defender: Dea - I love this guys endeavour but he is really unproven at the top level (or any level for that matter). Dimma clearly likes him so I imagine he is next in line.

Mid: Connors - Not sure what the story is with him. He can play but unsure if his head is in it or if he is even training ATM.
Helbig - Hard-nosed is how he has often been described but in the games he has played he has shown a bit but never had any real impact.
White - We all know what we will get there.

Small forward: A Maric: shown flashes but I can't remember him having any real impact on a game at Melbourne.
McDonald - No games and basically checked out. Will he ever pull on the guernsey? I doubt it.

KPF: Griffiths - although we are told he is being groomed as a defender. No runs on the board yet.
Derrickx - Really? thought he was brought in as a ruck and has been injured for about 3 years now.

Ruck: Graham - oh God please no
Browne - My boy I am a fan but under no illusions he is not a world beater. Would struggle against pretty much any decent ruckman in the league.

My concern is that as soon as one of our current starting 22 gets injured, we downgrade, and if we get a run of injury like last year, we will be playing half a team of untried raw guys or players who have been around a while for no impact or duds.

Go Tiges!

 

[LC_15]

I think the goals till round 10 will be pretty obvious.

- Don't get blown out of the water by top 4-6 teams.
- Halve or better against top 8 contenders

What we lack still is depth across the board, we're starting to get a solid 22 but we need 6-8 players. They've been listed above, some I don't believe should be on that list. We've activated our priority pick and we're preparing for free agency, next year seems to be more the push season but if we can improve to 10 wins for the season then we're trending correctly.

 

[Joker91]

best case scenario 3 and 7. worst case 1 and 9.

Why can't we beat Port, Saints, Sydney and Essendon? 5 and 5.

 

[Magic17]

It'll all look much rosier once we beat the cats this weekend.

Go Tigers.

 

[Morro]

Why can't we beat Port, Saints, Sydney and Essendon? 5 and 5.

I am with you Joker. All winable games on our day.

I to think 5 and 5 is a realistic goal. From there, anything could happen. Anything less and finals are a very difficult task.

 

[tunksy]

Why can't we beat Port, Saints, Sydney and Essendon? 5 and 5.

all winable games.

hope the forward line clicks into gear by then.

we've proved last year we could beat or match it with all those teams.

 

["The Roar Is Back"]

with kangas and crows having GWS and Gc 4 times (see richo rant) they will take top 8 easy. Teams we need to beat and do better than are saints, Bombers, freo and what seems like geelong !

win these games and win the ones we should win aka port gc and gws and we will be in the 8 any less and 9th here we come

They don't play them 4 times , they play each of them twice .

 

[fleabitten]

Using the ladder predictor, I can't see finals as a possibility any more. I think we'll finish with at least 10 wins, maybe as many as 13 but won't be any higher than 9th.

This was what i came up with:

1. Carlton 17-5
2. Hawthorn 17-5
3. Geelong 16-6
4. West Coast 15-7
5. Sydney 15-7
6. Collingwood 14-8
7. Fremantle 14-8
8. Adelaide 14-8
-------------------
9. Essendon 14-8
10. North 13-9
11. Richmond 13-9
12. St Kilda 13-9
13. Brisbane 7-15
14. Bulldogs 5-17
15. Port 4-18
16. Melbourne 3-19
17. Gold Coast 3-19
18. GWS 1-21

Sucks when you realise Adelaide and North both play the expansion teams twice and we play them only once each. Take a free win from those teams and give one to us, and we could be in the eight on percentage. But while the finals experience would be nice, I think we could still take a lot out of a winning season in 2012.

 

[db26]

Must say we got screwed with this draw by the AFL compared to other clubs.How we end up playing the cats in geelong with 45000 plus members is a joke.We were a bottom half club last season how do the blues and bombers get a better draw then us..Andrew and his team at the afl have no idea.

 

[Wacky Tiger]

Using the ladder predictor, I can't see finals as a possibility any more. I think we'll finish with at least 10 wins, maybe as many as 13 but won't be any higher than 9th.

This was what i came up with:

1. Carlton 17-5
2. Hawthorn 17-5
3. Geelong 16-6
4. West Coast 15-7
5. Sydney 15-7
6. Collingwood 14-8
7. Fremantle 14-8
8. Adelaide 14-8
-------------------
9. Essendon 14-8
10. North 13-9
11. Richmond 13-9
12. St Kilda 13-9
13. Brisbane 7-15
14. Bulldogs 5-17
15. Port 4-18
16. Melbourne 3-19
17. Gold Coast 3-19
18. GWS 1-21

Sucks when you realise Adelaide and North both play the expansion teams twice and we play them only once each. Take a free win from those teams and give one to us, and we could be in the eight on percentage. But while the finals experience would be nice, I think we could still take a lot out of a winning season in 2012.

Just like we beat the expansion team last year Still got to win the games

 

[purrrrrrrrrrfect]

Why can't we beat Port, Saints, Sydney and Essendon? 5 and 5.

Yep, I'd say they are all 50/50 & can win 'em all too. Let's hope we're not on the wrong side of the ledger though...

 

[TIGER DAVE]

best case scenario 3 and 7. worst case 1 and 9.

best case scenario 8 and 2 , worst case 1 and 9

 

[NUFC Tiger]

Nice post. I share your optimism re. finals aspirations this year, however my concern is depth. With such a young side there is no way that we will be able to field best 22 all season and unfortunately the guys who will come in to replace injured/out of form players are a level below.

My view on best available waiting to come in:
KPB: McGuane - Like it or not he is next in line. We all know what he brings to the table.
Astbury - I felt he was developing nicely until he did his knee but who knows how soon he will be right and how long he will take to get up to match fitness.
Post - IMO a liability. Has the body ok but looks lost half the time, gets found out most of the time and can't hold his spot when the heat is on. Needs to find something this year or I reckon his papers will be stamped (not sure of contract status).

Small defender: Dea - I love this guys endeavour but he is really unproven at the top level (or any level for that matter). Dimma clearly likes him so I imagine he is next in line.

Mid: Connors - Not sure what the story is with him. He can play but unsure if his head is in it or if he is even training ATM.
Helbig - Hard-nosed is how he has often been described but in the games he has played he has shown a bit but never had any real impact.
White - We all know what we will get there.

Small forward: A Maric: shown flashes but I can't remember him having any real impact on a game at Melbourne.
McDonald - No games and basically checked out. Will he ever pull on the guernsey? I doubt it.

KPF: Griffiths - although we are told he is being groomed as a defender. No runs on the board yet.
Derrickx - Really? thought he was brought in as a ruck and has been injured for about 3 years now.

Ruck: Graham - oh God please no
Browne - My boy I am a fan but under no illusions he is not a world beater. Would struggle against pretty much any decent ruckman in the league.

My concern is that as soon as one of our current starting 22 gets injured, we downgrade, and if we get a run of injury like last year, we will be playing half a team of untried raw guys or players who have been around a while for no impact or duds.

Go Tiges!

Pretty good summary there Pebblestone though for the mids, I think Webberley would just about be first in line from a depth perspective - apparently has been very good for coburg so far. Helbig was also in good form I read, shame he got injured. We need someone to perform and put pressure our worst performing smaller players (Jackson and Edwards probably the likely 2 at this stage).

I also think guys like Arnot and Elton might be able to play a bit of footy this year though they would probably need to show some consistency for Coburg before giving them a game.

 

[TimeFor11]

If the top teams can win heaps then 13 will do it.

 

[pebblestone]

Thanks NUFC. Forgot to put Webberley in there and I agree that he should be first in line. Watched him tear it up for Coburg a few weeks back and remember thinking how much I wished he could find that rhythm in the 1s. Would love to see him come up and settle in but I have to admit I'm fearful that he might just be a very good VFL player.

I do think it is very difficult to shine when you are being subbed on around 3/4 time as he has been so often. Would be happy to see him get another few games in the starting lineup given his improving fitness.

 

[Danog]

they don't play them 4 times , they play each of them twice .

2 + 2 =......

 

[nut]

I think we will beat Geelong.....

 

[Rich o man]

with kangas and crows having GWS and Gc 4 times (see richo rant) they will take top 8 easy. Teams we need to beat and do better than are saints, Bombers, freo and what seems like geelong !

win these games and win the ones we should win aka port gc and gws and we will be in the 8 any less and 9th here we come

The above is why I posted in the Richmond Geelong preview that this weeks game could be an 8 point ball game.

 

[partycorolla]

Should be 8-2 with a further 7 crap, ugly, should have played better 10 goal wins

3-7 is realistic, 5 and 5 gives us a crack at the finals and anything better than that is just great...

 

[johnno77]

I think the goals till round 10 will be pretty obvious.

- Don't get blown out of the water by top 4-6 teams.
- Halve or better against top 8 contenders

What we lack still is depth across the board, we're starting to get a solid 22 but we need 6-8 players. They've been listed above, some I don't believe should be on that list. We've activated our priority pick and we're preparing for free agency, next year seems to be more the push season but if we can improve to 10 wins for the season then we're trending correctly.

Agree with this. I said it before I think we need to make the finals (or at the very least pushing hard) to convince a Goddard type player to sign with us.

The more I look at the draw, the more I feel we've been dudded out of many easy games. Not one of Brisbane, GWS or Gold Coast do we play in Melbourne or play twice. Admittedly the Gold Coast game is a home game but still. You would have thought they could have repaid that with a second GWS/Brisbane game in Melbourne.

On the flip side, we've also been given minimal potential floggings. The teams we play only once from last years top 8 are: West Coast (in Melb), Collingwood, Hawks, Saints (not that they would flog us now) and Geelong.

Our 2nd half of the season looks much better on paper. If we can cause a couple of upsets in these next month or so of footy and then hold our nerve and have a decent injury run, my hopes will rise significantly.

 

[RichosGuns]

Prior to Round 10 we need to beat Port Adelaide.

We also need to win 2 of the matches against West Coast, St Kilda, Essendon, and Sydney.

If we dont do this, final are done for imo