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Finals 2009

  • Thread starter Thread starter MrEAGLES
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MrEAGLES

MrEAGLES

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Location
Melb
AFL Club
West Coast
I know this is stupid but whatever!!!!

Using the AFL Predictor, in particular results go our way, and we win every game remaining we can mathematically make finals and just squeeze into the eight!!!

How do you like that for optimism?
 
From tanking for picks to finals 2009. It's all happening down at West Coast. :thumbsu:

I would really like to see that list of possible results though. I would have thought we were no chance with our shit percentage.
 

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BarcaRulz said:
From tanking for picks to finals 2009. It's all happening down at West Coast. :thumbsu:

I would really like to see that list of possible results though. I would have thought we were no chance with our shit percentage.
Click to expand...

I got us there too. It relies on Port, Hawthorn and Essendon losing every game from now on (except for the round 22 match between Hawthorn and Essendon, which one of them has to win) and us winning every game, and building our percentage quite healthily in doing so. West Coast, Port and the winner of the Hawks-Bombers match all finish on 9 wins so it would come down to percentage.

I suppose the Hawks and Bombers could draw which would leave them both on 8.5 wins.

Anyway, it's so fanciful it's almost beyond belief, but it's nice to know we're a mathematical chance this late in the season.
 
We will probably lose to the bulldogs this week, so no. :p
 
I don't see why not. We're clearly the best team of the last 50 years.

Bring on September
 

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We would have to beat:
Bulldogs (5th) @ Etihad
Kangas (14th) @ Subi
Adelaide (3rd) @ Aami
Richmond (11th) @ Subi

Then we would need:

Port Adelaide (8th) to lose to:
Fremantle (15th) @ Subi
Carlton (6th) @ Aami
Lions (4th) @ Gabba
Kangas (14th) @ Aami

Essendon (9th) to lose to:
Lions (4th) @ MCG
Saints (1st) @ Etihad
Fremantle (15th) @ Subi

Hawthorn (10th) to lose to:
Saints (1st) @ Aurora
Adelaide (5th) @ MCG
Richmond (12th) @ MCG

Sydney (11th) to lose at least 2 games to:
Richmond (12th) @ MCG
Geelong (2nd) @ ANZ
Collingwood (4th) @ MCG
Lions (6th) @ SCG

Then in Round 22 we would need the Hawthorn / Essendon game to not result in a draw.

And we need to boost our percentage significantly and/or Port, Essendon, Sydney and Hawthorn need their percentages to diminish significantly in order for us to edge those four teams. Richmond have 5 wins and a draw, but in this scenario the Eagles beat them in the last round, so we edge them out.

With 4 more rounds in the regular season left, there are only 3 teams that can't make the top 8, those being Melbourne, Fremantle and North Melbourne.

Considering everything that would need to happen in order for the Eagles to make the top 8, you would expect to be able to get odds in the order of hundreds to 1. It looks like most bookies currently only have a market for Carlton, Hawthorn, Port and Essendon to make the 8. On Betfair, someone is offering odds of 38 to 1 for the Eagles to make the 8. And someone is also offering odds of 1000 to 1 on the Eagles to win the premiership. :o
 
silver_and_sand said:
We would have to beat:
Bulldogs (5th) @ Etihad
Kangas (14th) @ Subi
Adelaide (3rd) @ Aami
Richmond (11th) @ Subi

Then we would need:

Port Adelaide (8th) to lose to:
Fremantle (15th) @ Subi
Carlton (6th) @ Aami
Lions (4th) @ Gabba
Kangas (14th) @ Aami

Essendon (9th) to lose to:
Lions (4th) @ MCG
Saints (1st) @ Etihad
Fremantle (15th) @ Subi

Hawthorn (10th) to lose to:
Saints (1st) @ Aurora
Adelaide (5th) @ MCG
Richmond (12th) @ MCG

Sydney (11th) to lose at least 2 games to:
Richmond (12th) @ MCG
Geelong (2nd) @ ANZ
Collingwood (4th) @ MCG
Lions (6th) @ SCG

Then in Round 22 we would need the Hawthorn / Essendon game to not result in a draw.

And we need to boost our percentage significantly and/or Port, Essendon, Sydney and Hawthorn need their percentages to diminish significantly in order for us to edge those four teams. Richmond have 5 wins and a draw, but in this scenario the Eagles beat them in the last round, so we edge them out.

With 4 more rounds in the regular season left, there are only 3 teams that can't make the top 8, those being Melbourne, Fremantle and North Melbourne.

Considering everything that would need to happen in order for the Eagles to make the top 8, you would expect to be able to get odds in the order of hundreds to 1. It looks like most bookies currently only have a market for Carlton, Hawthorn, Port and Essendon to make the 8. On Betfair, someone is offering odds of 38 to 1 for the Eagles to make the 8. And someone is also offering odds of 1000 to 1 on the Eagles to win the premiership. :o
Click to expand...

So what you are saying, is that I should book my flight to the GF now? Right? Lets see... $100 on us to make the 8 = $3,800 - should cover my flights, accommodation and tickets :D

Of course we are dreaming, but wouldn't we all just be wetting ourselves if finals became a reality. Still, if we are that close this year considering how badly we have played, imagine what another 2 wins to date would have done for our prospects. Goes to show how things could change in 2 years once the Saints, Cats and Doggies start to slide. Shuey, Cox, Waters and Kerr still to come in, plus our pick 5-ish in the draft.

IMO, our young midfield is showing much more than that of Kangas, Richmond or Melbourne (with the exception of maybe Anthony, Swallow, Cotchin and Morton as standout youngs for their sides). I see a very slow return to the 8 for them, though at least Richmond have the makings of a good forward line.
 

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