Finals 2010 - Mathematically possible

[vaffaman]

Our flag odds have gone from 1001/1 to 501/1.
Here come the Tiges!

 

[tigerdan]

Get with the program RT. Its looking like 95 again.

At the risk of splitting hairs, to me it is 1994 all over again. That was the year that we really started to put it together. As we all know we failed at the last two hurdles that year. In 95 we blitzed it from the start, winning the first 6.

 

[2TONE]

you guys are all drunk

 

[the ranger]

you guys are all drunk

I reckon we'll win another 3-4 games and finish about 11th or 12th

Are you willing to wager that this will not happen?

 

[AstroboyUK]

I did the ladder predictor - using general form trends to predict (and by this I mean all games decided by current position on the Ladder - EXCEPT games involving Richmond) I have found the only way we can make the 8 without any miracle wins over Collingwood and St.s but assuming we win the other 5 games (big assumption, but hey this is fun!) is as follows:

Under this scenario there is only one way we can scrape into the 8 : either the Swans or Carlton need to drop 1 game contrary to current ladder positon: if either of them drop any game form suggests they should win - then the way is opened for us to take 8th - 40pts to 36pts.

So, in Rn 16 Sydney vs Carlton (SCG) - and depending who loses... thenthe possible danger games for Swans and Carlton are

Rnd 17 Melbourne vs Sydney (MCG)
Rnd 19 Carlton vs Essendon (MCG)
Rnd 22 Brisbane vs Sydney (in Brisbane)

Drop any one of these, and assuming the rest of the results go according to ladder positions and hey presto we are in. If they loose all 3 we actually finish 7th Our game against Carlton in Rnd 20 therefore assumes huge proportions! (just as, in retrospect, beating Sydney in Rnd 14 did!).

My suggestion is - hope for Sydney to loose to Carlton, and then drop 1-2 of the danger games: This is clearly out best chance.

Then again, North or Adelaide just need to surprise in 1 or 2 games and we are GORNE!... and guess what? We play both of them!

So, apart from games against St.s and Woods - it looks like every remaining game is bascially an Elimination final: which is what you all knew to begin with! Sorry!

 

[NQTIGER]

8-10 wins in a development year is fine, but on the other hand we need Sante to give us his prediction amazing 7th in the tips

 

[CoggaRules]

I did the ladder predictor - using general form trends to predict (and by this I mean all games decided by current position on the Ladder - EXCEPT games involving Richmond) I have found the only way we can make the 8 without any miracle wins over Collingwood and St.s but assuming we win the other 5 games (big assumption, but hey this is fun!) is as follows:

Under this scenario there is only one way we can scrape into the 8 : either the Swans or Carlton need to drop 1 game contrary to current ladder positon: if either of them drop any game form suggests they should win - then the way is opened for us to take 8th - 40pts to 36pts.

So, in Rn 16 Sydney vs Carlton (SCG) - and depending who loses... thenthe possible danger games for Swans and Carlton are

Rnd 17 Melbourne vs Sydney (MCG)
Rnd 19 Carlton vs Essendon (MCG)
Rnd 22 Brisbane vs Sydney (in Brisbane)

Drop any one of these, and assuming the rest of the results go according to ladder positions and hey presto we are in. If they loose all 3 we actually finish 7th Our game against Carlton in Rnd 20 therefore assumes huge proportions! (just as, in retrospect, beating Sydney in Rnd 14 did!).

My suggestion is - hope for Sydney to loose to Carlton, and then drop 1-2 of the danger games: This is clearly out best chance.

Then again, North or Adelaide just need to surprise in 1 or 2 games and we are GORNE!... and guess what? We play both of them!

So, apart from games against St.s and Woods - it looks like every remaining game is bascially an Elimination final: which is what you all knew to begin with! Sorry!

that is why the possibility exists for us. We are games that they need to win to keep us off their case. We have already accounted for the Swans who are in that group we are chasing, we shouldnt have beaten a top 4 side, but we did and now they have to beat us, instead of letting top 4 sides put us out of the equation for them. All will be answered Sunday arvo.

 

[Kyusss]

5 wins this year is a pass

6-7 is great

8-9 probably not realistic but hope im wrong

This week could be the week our bubble bursts North have played some good footy! hopefully we can get up

 

[Tassie27]

Just did the ladder predictor with sensible tips and I had us finishing 9th on percentage behind Carlton.


Damn!

 

[Final Siren]

I don't care where we finish this year. I care about 2011.

 

[santa claws]

lets just say that will be tested in 4 weeks time. As for the pessimists, if we go into the crows game winning our next 2 and losing to the scum, look out when we reach the crows. That will make it 7 wins while the Swans face the cats on the same day, and then have a ****ing hard run home. The bonus to us is that we only need to keep winning the winnables and if we jag one of the unwinnables, the Roos are who we have to catch, who are teetering on being a clone of us as the bummers have become.

so north are becoming a clone of us and the bombers already have. can you hear yourself
so in essence you suggest we do exactly what those two clubs have done so in a yr or two we are in their shoes. unbelievable post and even more unbelievable thread.

we havent gone thru 10 yrs of frawley and wallace and miller to repeat the mistakes of the past.r do what north and essendon have done so to speak.

 

[CoggaRules]

so north are becoming a clone of us and the bombers already have. can you hear yourself
so in essence you suggest we do exactly what those two clubs have done so in a yr or two we are in their shoes. unbelievable post and even more unbelievable thread.

we havent gone thru 10 yrs of frawley and wallace and miller to repeat the mistakes of the past.r do what north and essendon have done so to speak.

So what would you be your take on not making the same mistakes dude? I mean what mistakes are we making now? Are we playing the Pat Bowdens etc to get to ninth?

 

[Tigerman20]

That term has always annoyed me.

Every team I believe (Although I haven't done the maths) At this point in time has a mathematical chance of making the finals. I think (like I said I haven't done the maths) That Geelong and Saints are a mathematical certainty. Although looking at it maybe not They only have 12 wins.

Actually lets assume that at this point no team is a mathamatical certainty to make the finals. And the West Coast Eagles are not mathmatically certain to miss the finals.

Now that being said, Every team has a mathematical chance of making the finals. But the "mathematical" part is completely unnecessary.

Simply EVERY TEAM CAN MAKE THE FINALS. AND EVERY TEAM CAN MISS THE FINALS.


Copied from what I wrote in the other thread

Cut the Mathematical bit out in the topic. It should read, "Finals 2010 - possible"