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Opinion Finals Experience

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"We're here to win a premiership."

Adam Simpson has done a remarkable job to turn this team around. After most set their sights on a decent draft pick earlier in the season, Simmo and the boys have kept the faith and have been rewarded with 2 home finals and a real chance at a flag. It's well known that Grand Finals are historically played between teams from the top 4, and in his press conference today Simmo confirmed the belief that this could very well be our year.

However, Simpson also pointed out that we're the new kids on the block at the pointy end of the ladder. "We're a little different than the other top four teams in that they're hardened and regularly in the top 4." With Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney having all been involved in Grand Finals in the past three seasons, what impact might finals experience have on our chances? Below is a list of finals games played by the selected 22 from today, along with some key players who may see the field in the QF.

12 - Wellingham (all with Collingwood)
11 - Butler
7 - Priddis, Hurn
6 - Hill (2 with WCE), Ellis (all with Hawthorn)
5 - Darling, Gaff, Kennedy, LeCras, Masten, McGinnity, Naitanui, Rosa, Schofield, Selwood, Shuey
0 - Cripps, Hutchings, McGovern, Nelson, Newman, Sheed, Sheppard, Sinclair, Yeo

There are 104 total finals appearances in our squad. For comparison, consider Luke Hodge (18), Sam Mitchell (17), Shaun Burgoyne (27), Grant Birchall (17) and Jordan Lewis (17) have combined for 96 alone. If you throw in Rioli (13), Roughhead (15) and Gibson (17), that's 141 from a handful of players.

When you extrapolate this to the more established top 4 sides, we might be a little light on for finals experience. There is the belief that finals experience is vital to success, which makes sense, but is there a point of diminishing returns? Certainly 5 games played is better than 0, but is 8-10 games played significantly better than 5? I'd clearly prefer 13-17 finals appearances to 0, but is the advantage over someone with 5-11 finals appearances that much better? Have the nerves or sense of being overwhelmed been reduced after a certain number of appearances?

With a prelim run and two finals in 2012, the core group who have played in 5 finals fill me with confidence. Ellis and Wellingham have obviously seen several deep finals runs, and Rosa and Butler were about in a few of our flag tilts. Ultimately, I think the finals experience narrative has some merit, but I believe there to be enough within this group. With Simmo, the game plan, an in form Naitanui, a Coleman cert Kennedy and a hungry group, I genuinely think this could be our year.

Your thoughts on the differential between our finals experience and that of Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney?
 
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To a certain extent home finals (Hawks and Syd) will offset the finals experience situation and then if we get to the big dance - anything can happen.

From memory Shuey's last finals appearance (against the Pies) was a stinker.
 

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Finals experience helps prepare you for a big game but it doesn't win you a game. Over the years, plenty of finals teams have lost to teams with less finals experience. It happens every year. And there have been teams that have come from nowhere to win a premiership - Essendon 1993, Hawthorn 2008 and maybe Collingwood a few years ago. The work is ahead of us but there is no reason we can't win the premiership this year. Winning next Friday would be a giant step in launching an assault on the flag but not the end if we lose (as was the case in 2006).
 
Thread needs more discussion of Hodge being a great bloke. So great, so brave.
But the Eagles' fans have the responsibility to let him know that he has done something wrong to the community!!!! Otherwise we are not fair to Mr Goodes. Make sure that there is no silly racial stuff.
 
I think finals experience is correlated with finals success, but is not really a cause of finals success.

It makes sense because teams typically improve somewhat steadily - from 10th to 6th to 3rd to 1st for example. So by the time they reach first, they've had a few seasons in the finals already. The reason they didn't win the flag in their first time in the finals wasn't because they lacked the finals experience, it's because they weren't in the top couple of sides. Of course there are exceptions, and things are not linear (a team may jump and then stagnate and then jump again or whatever) but generally I believe that teams first finals experiences are d when they just not among the best couple of sides.

Before the year, I wouldn't have said we were any chance to be in the top couple, but we have quite simply played really good footy all year. We are now right in the mix, and have every chance of winning the flag, regardless of finals experience.
 
To a certain extent home finals (Hawks and Syd) will offset the finals experience situation and then if we get to the big dance - anything can happen.

From memory Shuey's last finals appearance (against the Pies) was a stinker.

That was his first final where he got run down twice HTB. Made him look worse than he was (he got back up and won a HTB back instantly after one of them). Shuey's last final was a night game where the Pies beat us by 13 and I think he played alright in that.
 
Same ball ...same surface ....same goal posts

What changes is pressure ...can we execute under heat ...

I think we can.
 
needs more words like extrapolate

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Your thoughts on the differential between our finals experience and that of Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney?

since this finals format came in teams who are playing their first finals game in at least 3 seasons (2 years no finals) are 4-14 when their opponent has played finals in that time, average losing margin of 37pts. I think most the effect would be early in the match, there is still quite a few players on your list who have played finals though so not as roar as some teams would have been.
most recent comparison is probably Adelaide in 2012 when they finished top and got well beaten by Sydney at home.
 

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Bears no relevance to the modern game, but thought it was interesting nonetheless.
In 1991 we had 4 guys without a final under the belt (Pyke, Matera, Jako, McIntosh), average of 3 finals per player. In 1992 there were 2 finals debutants (Evans and White), with an average of nearly 6 finals per player. Our current group (3.9) is something similar to our 1991 team in terms of overall finals experience, with many more players who haven't experienced that cauldron. I think it helps, but it's not the be all and end all of going deep into finals.

We also defeated the reigning premier Hawthorn at Subi in the first final in 1992 and went all the way :D
 
Great thread.

I think it's fantastic for us that the QF is at home. It will go a long way to offsetting the advantage that Hawthorn has over us with regard to knowing how to overcome nerves and stamp authority early in the game.

We need to get off to a good start and keep the crowd involved, absorb all physical pressure and dish out some of our own.
 
You just know they're going be very physical and try and rattle us, does someone like Ginners needs to do the same, try get under their skin or do we stick to our plan and just do it?
 
We just need to kick straight. Can see the inaccuracy that's crept into our games over the second half of the season really hurting us if we're not careful. Need to take our chances.
 

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You just know they're going be very physical and try and rattle us, does someone like Ginners needs to do the same, try get under their skin or do we stick to our plan and just do it?
I endorse this 100%. Badly want him in the side right from the start, useless choice if we bring him in to sub. But from the bounce, get physical, smash himself around, excellent decision. Hawks fold like deck chairs when people take it up to them, high school bully shit of acting tough but shitting themselves when someone steps up to the plate (see: Richmond game). McGinnity in the 21 plz.
 
To my mind this weeks game is our grand final. We win this and we have the belief we can win the flag this year. We lose and i don't think we'll make it to the grand final.
Agree 100%. This is our game, we need to win this to force a hard fought battle between the other premiership contenders over the next few weeks.
 
Having the game on our turf, in front of a hostile crowd...I feel like we can get the edge if we're aggressive right from the start. No one needs to be reminded of what a great side Hawthorn are, so I don't see any risk of complacency. But we need to go into this believing that we're the team to beat and perform accordingly.
 
Dare say we would have had less finals experience coming into the 2005 finals series.

Maybe in total finals games played, but a lot of those players would've been there for 02, 03 & 04 failed finals series'. I know it was only 1 game in each of those years, but I reckon that's just as benefitial as playing say 2 or 3 finals in the one year. They would've been through 3 seasons prior, of all the work to get to the finals, then play and lose, is probably similar to coming out of nowhere, like in 2011, and playing in 3 finals in the one year.
 
If Hawks win its because of experience. They lose its coz they are too old. Fine line between pleasure & pain. I believe thats a song....
 

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