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First Fours

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iluvparis

iluvparis

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I think First fours are an underutilized bet type on the punting word and can generate some surprising returns for a small invested. Thought it might be a good idea to start a new thread to discuss strategies for which kind of races to target and what kind of strategies to use when selecting your combinations.
 
A wise old head started my love affair with this bet type – he had a pretty simple strategy that can throw up a big dividend if the race is open enough

To start with – this methodology works best in fields of 14 or more where the shortest horse in the market is at least $4.

You need to make 8 selections in the race as follows:

A – 2 horses
B – 3 more horses
C – 3 further horses

You then break the ticket into 3 separate bets

Ticket 1
1st – A
2nd/3rd/4th – ABC

Ticket 2

1st – B
2nd – A
3rd/4th – ABC

Ticket 3

1st – B
2nd – BC
3rd – A
4th – ABC

Now the tickets look complicated but the easiest way to think about it is this. To win the bet:
· One of your A selections must run top 3 AND
· One of your A or B selections must win AND
· Any remaining placings must be covered by your ABC horses

This generates 750 combos so you can take $1 tickets for as little as $8. With 5 horses covering the win spot and 8 covering the placings you can afford to throw in a couple of roughies. If you think you’ve found something that can win at double figure prices the dividends can be huge. It also works well if you have the fave on the B line – so you are covered if it wins, but it doesn’t matter if it runs out of the placings (another way the divvy gets boosted).
 
love first 4's on high volume races or large number of horses. i don't do enough of them to be honest. I have done maybe 4 this year and one was a big hit, i'll try find it.

Basically my theory is you only include horses that are overs or very short.
 

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I used to have a spreadsheet that would calculate 'fair' F4 dividends based on the prices of the winner and placegetters but seemed to have lost it :(

I think you're right about high turnover races though - without doing any sums I reckon the one Jug and I landed on the Emirates paid decent overs.
 
iluvparis said:
I used to have a spreadsheet that would calculate 'fair' F4 dividends based on the prices of the winner and placegetters but seemed to have lost it :(

I think you're right about high turnover races though - without doing any sums I reckon the one Jug and I landed on the Emirates paid decent overs.
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generally big days also have jackpots on the features so if i remember i always try have a look and put a $25 one on at a minimum.While large fields provide people wasting selections on horses that can't place. As a rule i prefer low combinations and sacrifice strike rate for bigger returns. also like doing one if i am laying the favourite as there I am hoping there is a lot of dead money there.

generally my system is

best 2x overs, best 1-2 chances that are reasonably priced
same
same + a speculative one
same + favourite (if i'm feeling soft)

always try keep it around 200-450 combo's
 
i need to stop being greedy with the dogs and go field for 4th and sacrifice a few %. so frustrating when i pick 5 and the $6-$8 gets up and some donkey runs 4th and i woulda had a decent pay out even with a low %

love it when theres 5 horses paying between $4-$9 everything else is 15+ and they end finishing first 4
 
Here's how I'll be playing the QE

A - The United States, Criterion
B - Preferment, Hauraki, It's Somewhat
C - Happy Clapper, Lucia Valentina, Dibiyani

Best result would be:

It's Somewhat - Dibiyani - The United States - Happy Clapper

If you were super brave you could put the top 3 in the market all on the B line - if all 3 miss the top 4 I expect a very decent dividend.
 
iluvparis said:
Here's how I'll be playing the QE

A - The United States, Criterion
B - Preferment, Hauraki, It's Somewhat
C - Happy Clapper, Lucia Valentina, Dibiyani

Best result would be:

It's Somewhat - Dibiyani - The United States - Happy Clapper

If you were super brave you could put the top 3 in the market all on the B line - if all 3 miss the top 4 I expect a very decent dividend.
Click to expand...

I will join you.

A - Criterion, Preferment
B - The United States, Hauraki, Rising Romance
C- It's Somewhat, Happy Clapper, Lucia Valentina
 

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FallingLiefs said:
******* Rising Romance run ******* fourth while ******* Happy Trails blocked for run ******* 5th you ******* campaigner. \end
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3k unders with cats first and 4th ;)
 
FallingLiefs said:
******* Rising Romance run ******* fourth while ******* Happy Trails blocked for run ******* 5th you ******* campaigner. \end
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Suck shit. :)

Im not just a pretty face, see. Happy Trailol's over RR, tsk tsk..
 
Couple of races look decent options today

Caulfield - Race 8
Rosehill - Race 8
Morphetville - Race 7

In Adelaide I'll be using the ABC method and taking the following:

A - 3, 13
B - 5, 6, 7
C - 9, 15, 17
 
big pools and big fields in the two big ones in adelaide should be perfect for this

Oaks -

Bengal Cat/ Asinara/ Sacred Eye
same
same + C'est Beau la Vie/ Pasadena Girl
same

36 Combos 100%

Sangster -

Miss Prom/ Wawail/ Petits/ DDM/ Scarlett Billows
same
Same + Precious Gem
Same + Badawiya

320 Combos 15%
 
Yup - some great F4 races in Adelaide today for the tried and trusted ABC method - this is how I'll be playing

Oaks
A - 3 6
B - 1 7 9
C - 8 10 14

Sangster
A - 1 18
B - 13 15 17
C - 4 6 19
 

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