Opinion Fixing our KPF problem

[jackess]

Browny to make a comeback in 2016.

 

[bato]

To those who have intimated that Michael Close is of a power forward model, I can agree to some extent that he may fit the description but there is obviously no harm done recruiting a young 1st rounder in the draft or an established star via a reasonable trade. As for Freeman, I stand by my observations that he does not fit in a power forward model.

To those that intimated that I have no faith in our current stocks, I'll say it again. This is not about faith. This is about constant striving to improve the list to the point where we can have sustained success. Resting our laurels on the current crop of players sure has a romantic feel to it, but I believe it to be unwise. We can speculate all we want about Close and Freeman but in the end, time brings out results. Football clubs and teams do not have time to simply wait for a couple of players to realise their potential.

To those who believe we should do nothing and have no problem, I whole-heartedly disagree on this. Both Greg Swann and Leppa have acknowledged there is still work to be done to fix our forward line which remains perhaps our weakest line. Some believe that Staker or Martin or West are viable options. Fact is, Staker has not been playing for the past 12 months and has had recurrent injuries since 2010. He may well be off the list beyond 2015. The other two, are specialised as ruckman and play best as ruckman. Unless they can pull a "David Hale", it is also unwise to all our eggs in that basket.

What we are lacking at the moment, in my opinion, is that pure contested marking machine who can clunk one when we rush a kick deep forward or the bail out kick when nothing's on short.
It's fine to be able to crash a pack for the crumbers but a one grabber ie a Jake Carlisle forces more defenders to contest the marking contest resulting in more opportunities for said crumbers. I don't see Close as the answer for this deep option.. Freeman, maybe. Resting rucks, hopefully.
I think with our take the game on game style last year and with the recurits/development a lot of our goals are going to be from quick ball movement and smart little kicks finding smaller forwards in holes of the defence Bewick Beams Christensen

I think contested marking is a broad topic that applies to ANY KPF that wants to make it in the AFL. For example, Browny fits into the "power forward" model but he still took his fair share of contested marks as the bash and crash forward. Whilst a Jack Riewoldt (more of an athletic type) takes contested marks with superior athletic ability (i.e. speccies).

I'm not sure the KPF is the key to the top four team, Reiwoldt and Fevola were killing it when their teams were bouncing along the bottom of the ladder.

I think it's the key mids. The best midfield in the league could make the worst forward line look like All Australians.

There's not a lot of point wishing for what we're unlikely to get. Recruiting a key forward through the draft next year is going to mean a good 3-5 years development lead time. Trying to trade for an established key forward will pit us in competition with several other clubs and likely required to pay a trade price that most supporters would be very uncomfortable with.

I think Sydney pre-Buddy demonstrates that it is possible to be enormously competitive without a dominant key forward. They won a flag with Sam Reid as the focal point up forward and had another really good year in 2013 with the occasional services of Kurt Tippett. Both guys were pick 30 something in their draft years. I think most people believe Buddy was then icing on the cake, rather than being absolutely critical to their ability to compete against the best sides.

Having a power forward is a not sufficient condition for top four teams, but very usually it is necessary for a top 4 team.

The Swans in 2012 and 2013 is a good example if you do not regard Adam Goodes and Tippett's 30 or so goals as being kicked by a top-line KPF. However, how often do we really see this? We can pull out every premiership team in history and analyse all the exceptions - but in the end, they are just that - exceptions. Would it not be wiser to be safe than sorry? Is it harmful to the list that we think about the future or sustained success?

In the end, I think we all agree that it is not harmful to start doing those things.

 

[POBT]

bato if your argument is that we should get a superstar key forward, then you are absolutely right. Lemme just click my heels together and whisper "there's no bloke like Brown" and see what we can magic up.

 

[bato]

bato if your argument is that we should get a superstar key forward, then you are absolutely right. Lemme just click my heels together and whisper "there's no bloke like Brown" and see what we can magic up.

Which is why I started this topic asking people for opinions on how we can best do it. Which players do people want? What trades are people willing to accept for certain players? What future draft prospects are available?

In the end, this is an opinion thread not a thread about what is or is not going to happen. There's really no need to be sarcastic.

 

[POBT]

I did reply by saying the draft is of limited use due to development time and the likelihood of getting an established gun is remote. I then pointed to the Sydney 2012-13 to demonstrate that there is another way.

Forgive me for not participating more fully in this exercise.

 

[bato]

I did reply by saying the draft is of limited use due to development time and the likelihood of getting an established gun is remote. I then pointed to the Sydney 2012-13 to demonstrate that there is another way.

Forgive me for not participating more fully in this exercise.

Sure thing, and it was a great reply. However, don't think your previous reply was all that necessary.

We could have continued in a good civil discussion.

 

[Skoob]

Which is why I started this topic asking people for opinions on how we can best do it. Which players do people want? What trades are people willing to accept for certain players? What future draft prospects are available?

In the end, this is an opinion thread not a thread about what is or is not going to happen. There's really no need to be sarcastic.

Yet felt the need to pull some out to make out that they're nonsense.
Those that you quoted above were in response to the plethora that paint a picture of our stocks being all but useless in the roll and stating the fact thatit is not a simple matter to just "get one".
The way some opinions on the matter read, is that we will fail and perish if we don't get a superstar power forward in the immediate future and that we can't have a winning forwardline with the list we've got.
You can't ask for opinions and discussion and then get defensive and narky when some don't share your own.

 

[bato]

Yet felt the need to pull some out to make out that they're nonsense.
Those that you quoted above were in response to the plethora that paint a picture of our stocks being all but useless in the roll and stating the fact thatit is not a simple matter to just "get one".
The way some opinions on the matter read, is that we will fail and perish if we don't get a superstar power forward in the immediate future and that we can't have a winning forwardline with the list we've got.
You can't ask for opinions and discussion and then get defensive and narky when some don't share your own.

Not sure how I was being defensive or narky. I did not insult anyone in any way, nor do I intend to ever do it. I respect people on this board a lot. If my comments came out as narky or defensive, I apologise.

I was merely addressing some of the opinions with some counter-arguments. Is that not what discussion is all about?

 

[Skoob]

Not sure how I was being defensive or narky. I did not insult anyone in any way, nor do I intend to ever do it. I respect people on this board a lot. If my comments came out as narky or defensive, I apologise.

I was merely addressing some of the opinions with some counter-arguments. Is that not what discussion is all about?

Fair enough, maybe just the way I read it. It seemed a bit dismissive and suggestive that they were just plain wrong, which I don't see. I don't think anyone suggested that a power forward wouldn't be good to get, but that seemed to be what you were reading into it.

 

[bato]

Fair enough, maybe just the way I read it. It seemed a bit dismissive and suggestive that they were just plain wrong, which I don't see. I don't think anyone suggested that a power forward wouldn't be good to get, but that seemed to be what you were reading into it.

Perhaps it's my dogmatic style of presenting my arguments.

Anyway, the thread was mostly based on the premise that we need to fix our KPF problem, and was more about discussing draft prospects and potential trades that people were willing to accept.


But of course, alternate views are welcome.

 

[EskiBro]

I think we're in pretty good hands in the KPP stakes finally, just have to be a little patient.

KPD:

Locks: Clarke and Gardiner can look forward to 200 game careers. As can McStay, but I think he'll end up forward.

Maybe: Bourke, only played the one game, but looked pretty solid. Reports having him coming second last by a significant margin in all of the running drills, only beating Archie Smith, so a bit to work on there.

Others: Merrett and Maguire provide the immediate capability and to on-field teach the young fellas.

KPF:

Locks: McStay, but may be used in defence.

Maybe: Close, Paine and Freeman.

Close an athletic beast, but lacks footy nous. Would be great in defence if he doesn't make it as a forward.

Freeman a great contested mark and efficient goal scorer, but lacking in second efforts. Freeman has bulked up considerably from last season and improved endurance, but lost a little in agility. All the drills have him used as the deepest forward, in the Hawkins/Cloke role. I think that suits him best and he'll do well there. He's the most likely to be able to play the power forward role.

Paine probably a step behind those two, but has come back to training about 4kg lighter and has worked his way up to the second best group in the repeat 400s, seemed a long way off last year, but you have to commend the effort and hope it translates to on-field performance. Possibly as a 3rd lead up tall.

Others: While they develop, we can use Staker as CHF, then daylight, then McGuane.

This doesn't count anyone we picked up this year in the ND or will pick up tomorrow in the rookie draft. Go Lions.

 

[SizeMatters]

Still don't personally see McStay as a KPP but a utility that can pinch hit as a KPP if needed. Like the idea of him as more of a flanker that can move into the midfield and wings.

 

[chopperduck]

Ideally i think we need someone out of contract or just hitting FA that we can get that way. We wont want to trade our young talent, and i think ideally we want to keep slowly adding young talent each yeah with out first draft picks. Would be u healthy for our list to miss 2 drafts in a row of top end talent.

 

[Dan12]

I don't really like the notion of the 'superstar forward' that could seemingly carry us to glory. Say for instance we somehow get Tom Hawkins as a free agent next year on a $5 million, 5-year contract. This looks excellent on the surface, but we could easily run into trouble.

The first problem would be that a Hawkins type would be 'locking out' any other players from playing full forward for the next five years. What if Freeman or McStay really come on as key forwards but can't get a go at it because the spot is already taken? What if we have a great system working without it needing one very central player? We'd be hindering development, risking them leaving for greater opportunities and wasting our salary cap on Hawkins to an extent.
He'd comfortably be our highest paid player, undeservingly ahead of Beams and Rockliff. I don't think that bringing someone like that in really helps club culture, with his salary (and punchability in Hawkins' case).

Also, how many players portrayed as the messiah when moving clubs have actually gone through with it and won their team a premiership? Seriously, it rarely happens. If we brought in a gun full forward, they'd be undoubtedly be seen by supporters as our messiah, the great key forward ready to catapult us up the ladder. But past evidence suggests huge name players rarely bring ultimate success to their new clubs.

So basically, I don't think getting a superstar key forward just immediately solves everything. The other issue is that they don't grow on trees. We'd have to give up something serious to get one too.

Instead of getting Hawkins, Cameron, Walker, Jesus or Allah, I'd like to see the club see how our young players develop for the next two years, then assess where we are at.
I liken our key forward situation to the key defence situation at Hawthorn. Despite an obvious need for a defender they gave Schoenmakers and Gilham every opportunity to prove themselves. When it was obvious they wouldn't make it, Hawthorn targeted Brian Lake- a very serviceable player coming to the end of his career but still with something to offer. They could have thrown the kitchen sink at someone younger and slightly better. But they kept their squad together, kept their draft picks intact and still got someone who would do the job.
A similar approach from us would be to see how our young players develop for 2-3 years. If its apparent that we need someone else, we could target a quality player coming to the end of their career and wanting success like a Josh Kennedy, Travis Cloke or Kurt Tippett. I'm guessing that they'd all be 29 or older and coming out of contract in a couple years. Not quite of Hawkins' calibre and they would be reasonably old, but it fits the Lake-style deal that I'd be more comfortable with than a Hawkins or Cameron godfather offer. To be honest I'd be more comfortable with us snaring Robbie Tarrant than Hawkins from next year's FA pool.

 

[Nunez]

I'd hate Hawkins as a Lion- he is a complete Wank and one of my least liked players.

Sorry, I had to let that slip

 

[Always a Lion]

Brown's best performed years were post our premiership years. In those years, I was often of the opinion that we had an unhealthy reliance on him and that his abilities dictated the way we played, structured and developed the entire team. I think now that Browny has retired, we are not yet accustomed to not having him, so it feels like there's a big hole.

But I am keen to see where the team is at and how develops over the next couple of years. I think the development based on a whole team is much healthier than having a dominant key position focal point. Where the strengths of many individuals players are encouraged and mesh together to gain and develop understanding, structure, trust, and team culture. I think the development of the Lions leading up to the premiership years happened that way, and the forward line almost became the finishing touch.

 

[dlanod]

The first problem would be that a Hawkins type would be 'locking out' any other players from playing full forward for the next five years. What if Freeman or McStay really come on as key forwards but can't get a go at it because the spot is already taken? What if we have a great system working without it needing one very central player? We'd be hindering development, risking them leaving for greater opportunities and wasting our salary cap on Hawkins to an extent.

It seems like a lot of worrying about something that's not really a big deal. You can have multiple spots for key forwards. Look at Buddy & Roughead, Brown & Lynch, even Kennedy & Darling. If Close or Freeman or McStay really come on, it's not difficult to find a spot for them. We don't have a plethora of options to stack up there at the moment. And if we have a great system without needing a central player than we won't recruit a KPF - at this stage the speculation is largely fan driven, with maybe a couple of breadcrumbs coming out of the club that are probably being blown up to greater significance than they are.

He'd comfortably be our highest paid player, undeservingly ahead of Beams and Rockliff. I don't think that bringing someone like that in really helps club culture, with his salary (and punchability in Hawkins' case).

Winning helps culture. If he comes in and isn't a success, yeah that'll be a Fev-esque ****-up. But if that's assumed to be the case before it's even started, again, no point in recruiting anyone. If he comes in and is a success, people will generally accept it if it's getting us to finals and deep into them.

Also, how many players portrayed as the messiah when moving clubs have actually gone through with it and won their team a premiership? Seriously, it rarely happens. If we brought in a gun full forward, they'd be undoubtedly be seen by supporters as our messiah, the great key forward ready to catapult us up the ladder. But past evidence suggests huge name players rarely bring ultimate success to their new clubs.

This point doesn't make much sense - "If the fans think a player is the messiah, their team doesn't generally win premierships." Teams rarely experience ultimate success, period. Only one in 18 (or 16) get to experience it each year so a large number of imports will not win premierships, but Lynch, Burgoyne, Ball, Gibson, Lake and others all did.

So basically, I don't think getting a superstar key forward just immediately solves everything. The other issue is that they don't grow on trees. We'd have to give up something serious to get one too.

Instead of getting Hawkins, Cameron, Walker, Jesus or Allah, I'd like to see the club see how our young players develop for the next two years, then assess where we are at.
I liken our key forward situation to the key defence situation at Hawthorn. Despite an obvious need for a defender they gave Schoenmakers and Gilham every opportunity to prove themselves. When it was obvious they wouldn't make it, Hawthorn targeted Brian Lake- a very serviceable player coming to the end of his career but still with something to offer. They could have thrown the kitchen sink at someone younger and slightly better. But they kept their squad together, kept their draft picks intact and still got someone who would do the job.
A similar approach from us would be to see how our young players develop for 2-3 years. If its apparent that we need someone else, we could target a quality player coming to the end of their career and wanting success like a Josh Kennedy, Travis Cloke or Kurt Tippett. I'm guessing that they'd all be 29 or older and coming out of contract in a couple years. Not quite of Hawkins' calibre and they would be reasonably old, but it fits the Lake-style deal that I'd be more comfortable with than a Hawkins or Cameron godfather offer. To be honest I'd be more comfortable with us snaring Robbie Tarrant than Hawkins from next year's FA pool.

I do agree generally with all of this though. I don't think a proven KPF will solve everything, so I don't want to mortgage our club to do so. I'd much rather try to picking up a developing one squeezed out of GWS or GC than throw money at the top options.

 

[Dan12]

It seems like a lot of worrying about something that's not really a big deal. You can have multiple spots for key forwards. Look at Buddy & Roughead, Brown & Lynch, even Kennedy & Darling. If Close or Freeman or McStay really come on, it's not difficult to find a spot for them. We don't have a plethora of options to stack up there at the moment. And if we have a great system without needing a central player than we won't recruit a KPF - at this stage the speculation is largely fan driven, with maybe a couple of breadcrumbs coming out of the club that are probably being blown up to greater significance than they are.



Winning helps culture. If he comes in and isn't a success, yeah that'll be a Fev-esque ****-up. But if that's assumed to be the case before it's even started, again, no point in recruiting anyone. If he comes in and is a success, people will generally accept it if it's getting us to finals and deep into them.



This point doesn't make much sense - "If the fans think a player is the messiah, their team doesn't generally win premierships." Teams rarely experience ultimate success, period. Only one in 18 (or 16) get to experience it each year so a large number of imports will not win premierships, but Lynch, Burgoyne, Ball, Gibson, Lake and others all did.



I do agree generally with all of this though. I don't think a proven KPF will solve everything, so I don't want to mortgage our club to do so. I'd much rather try to picking up a developing one squeezed out of GWS or GC than throw money at the top options.

Looking back at my above post, I actually agree that I build those issues up to be bigger than they are and don't convey them well, although they're still relevant imo.

My main point is that I don't like putting all our eggs in one basket when we don't know what we already have, the rest was more peripheral and unnecessarily long upon reflection. Just see how our current group develop, then decide what we need.

 

[chopperduck]

Only problem is you cant afford to wait 3-4 years to see if the current crop turn out. Otherwise you are waiting another 3-4 years to then draft and develop the next crop. That is assuming draft rather than draft or FA a ready made, which isnt always available/able to do.

 

[winged1]

We did recruit a gun full forward at one stage called Alistair Lynch. He worked out OK.

 

[winged1]

I have said before that this year will depend a lot on the development of Close and Freeman and to a lesser extent if Staker can get on the field consistently.

But lets look at last year:

• Massive turn over of players into the senior side
• New coach who implemented a particular possession game plan at the start of the year and then morphed it into a run and gun style
• Brownie went mid year, leaving a big hole
• Close first full (ish) year in the firsts, asked to back up ruck. Big ask to be NO1 forward with Brown gone
• Players adjusting to each other and the game plans as the evolved
• Freeman only 4 games
• McStay only a few more
• Staker out, McGuane did not play one game uninjured.

Lets see how this coming year pans out, I dont expect to see anywhere near the number of debutants next year. The team will have settled with each other, Leppa has a better idea of what he wants, Close and Freeman another proper pre season, Staker potentially like a new recruit.

It might come half way through the year and it is obvious we need another key forward, or the kids we have might be developing well. Either way I think the club is onto it.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I think we are more likely to go for a Carlisle type than a Hawkins and to use him to supplement what we have.

 

[Eons]

Played golf yesterday with a guy who worked at Collingwood over the last few years in the physio/rehab side of things. He was very surprised when I told him Paine was doing really well in the running drills and had lost a fair bit of weight. Also said Beams didn't look happy at Collingwood over the last 2 years.

 

[Hiltop77]

what if we tried West as a full-time KPF hes got the strength and size to take on the key defenders and he is good in front of goals i reckon it could be worth a shot. but would obviously have to wait till half way through next season to find out.

 

[POBT]

what if we tried West as a full-time KPF hes got the strength and size to take on the key defenders and he is good in front of goals i reckon it could be worth a shot. but would obviously have to wait till half way through next season to find out.

I'd be reluctant to play all 3 of Leuenberger, West and Martin. We'd lose a lot in terms of mobility, defensive pressure and ball use. I think if West plays, he has to ruck some of the time.