Strategy Forward Line Potential

[Eddie1994]

I'm not sure if there's another thread along these lines, but I am quiet interested in what all you guys think is a pass mark in terms of goals kicked from the forward 6.

For mine the forward 6 includes:

• Hawkins
• Clark
• Motlop
• McCarthy
• Kersten
• Murdoch

There will be a lot more players rotating through the forward half, but for me, these guys need to make that area their own.

HAWKINS: We all know what he is capable of, and has been producing solidly since 2011. I think the addition of Clark may improve his performance to another level in 2015, with the added threat of another dangerous tall, Hawkins will be able to play a lot more one-on-one football, and he is very hard to beat in this scenario. I think another season of 60+ majors is on the cards, possibly along with the long-awaited Coleman to again rest easy down at the Cattery.

CLARK: A very skillful and highly dangerous foil. The only worry here is if the MC and coaching staff decide he is more useful as a ruckman, which i disagree with, yes he can pinch hit and i think he should from time to time, yet Geelong has been crying out for another key forward capable of kicking bags to ease the pressure on Hawkins. No doubt the ability is there, but is the belief, I think Clark, if he playes every game, should kick at least 45+ goals.

MOTLOP: A genuine freak with ball in hand, and an uncanny goal sense. May spend more time in the midfield with the loss of Christiensen and Varcoe, but i believe he is most damanging forward of centre. Capable of kicking 40+ but with the twin towers down there and promising time in the midfield i think the skilled cat will bag around 30+.

McCARTHY: Very promising youngster, gives 110% to each contest and has the skillset to go with it. It's time for him to announce himself at AFL level and have a breakout year, after showing enough towards the end of 2014. Still a young kid and needs to better learn his craft, possibly from a Steve Johnson. Taking into account the inexperience I think McCarthy will end the season playing most games (around 15+) and will kick 25+ goals.

KERSTEN: Dominant in the VFL, but has struggled to transition to the ones. Showed glimpses that he could dominate, and I think this year, without the responsibility of being the second tall, he will step up. The addition of Clark lessens the load on the young fella's shoulders. Could become a great 3rd tall option in the mould of Gunston, who kicked 50+ last year for the Hawks, and after a few years i think Kertsen is more than capable of that. Being just his second year of AFL, I believe 35+ would be a pass.

MURDOCH: Sublime skills, an absolute jet, and quiet a good size. Should play a half forward role in 2015 after a solid 2014. 22 goals from 23 games this year was a solid return for the 22 year old cat. I think he has started to find his role in the team. With more confidence, and a greater role I can see Jordan again kicking 20+ possibly high 20's, but delivering a lot of ball inside the forward 50.

That gives the Cats 215+ goals from these 6 players, and if something along those lines occurs, we will be a tough side to stop. The addition of Clark, and hopeful emergance of McCarthy, plus improvements for Murdoch and Kersten will provide a lot more otion for the [reviously one-dimensional Cats.

So, thats my take on things. Feel free to change the players around if you don't see them being main forwards. Thanks and enjoy


EDIT: I know many of you are saying these guys won't all play fwd, and others will play there instead, I just think that these guys will play there best footy down there, if you think others will play there, name them, always interested in others views, don't just say I'm wrong, tell me why

 

[alfy!]

Good thread worthy of significant discussion.

Although a lot of talk centres around our inability to find stability for the 2nd tall forward option, I personally believe an area worthy of more worry is goals from small forwards.

This years goal kick list for reference:

​

Rank - Name - Games - Total
1 - Tom Hawkins - 24 - 68
2 - Jimmy Bartel - 23 - 27
3 - Joel Selwood - 24 - 24
4 - Mitchell Duncan - 24 - 23
5 - Jordan Murdoch - 23 - 22
6 - Steve Johnson - 18 - 17
6 - Steven Motlop - 17 - 17
8 - Horlin-Smith - 21 - 13
9 - Joshua Walker - 7 - 11
9 - Josh Caddy - 16 - 11
11 - Shane Kersten - 9 - 10​

 

[Eddie1994]

Good thread worthy of significant discussion.

Although a lot of talk centres around our inability to find stability for the 2nd tall forward option, I personally believe an area worthy of more worry is goals from small forwards.

This years goal kick list for reference:

Rank Name Games Total
1 Tom Hawkins 24 68
2 Jimmy Bartel 23 27
3 Joel Selwood 24 24
4 Mitchell Duncan 24 23
5 Jordan Murdoch 23 22
6 Steve Johnson 18 17
6 Steven Motlop 17 17
8 George Horlin-Smith 21 13
9 Joshua Walker 7 11
9 Josh Caddy 16 11
11 Shane Kersten 9 10

Agree completely, the main problem was if Hawkins didnt clunk the mark, our crumbers let the ball get out too easily. McCarthy is one i really like who could do his bit to stop this problem, and with games under his belt could fill the Chapman hole. I do think however the addition of Clark will allow small forwards to cause more havok.

 

[Partridge]

I'm not sure if there's another thread along these lines, but I am quiet interested in what all you guys think is a pass mark in terms of goals kicked from the forward 6.

For mine the forward 6 includes:

• Hawkins
• Clark
• Motlop
• McCarthy
• Kersten
• Murdoch

There will be a lot more players rotating through the forward half, but for me, these guys need to make that area their own.

Great effort Eddie. It could be pretty close to the forward line for next year, ultimately we just won't know until March how it's likely to pan out.

I'll be a lot more conservative with goal tallies. Like possessions with midfielders, we always overrate how good each player is likely to be:

Hawkins - 60 goals
Clark - 20 goals
Motlop - 30 goals
McCarthy - 15 goals
Kersten - 20 goals
Murdoch - 25 goals

 

[Eddie1994]

Great effort Eddie. It could be pretty close to the forward line for next year, ultimately we just won't know until March how it's likely to pan out.

I'll be a lot more conservative with goal tallies. Like possessions with midfielders, we always overrate how good each player is likely to be:

Hawkins - 60 goals
Clark - 20 goals
Motlop - 30 goals
McCarthy - 15 goals
Kersten - 20 goals
Murdoch - 25 goals

Thankyou.

I am quiet curious at why only 20 for Clark? I know his history, but with the service that the Cats midfield will produce (in comparison to Melb), I believe he will have a big year.

 

[Partridge]

Thankyou.

I am quiet curious at why only 20 for Clark? I know his history, but with the service that the Cats midfield will produce (in comparison to Melb), I believe he will have a big year.

Let's just say I like to wait and see. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't spend time in the ruck, and I can't see Vardy not being moved through there at some point either. Out of all those players, Hawkins and Motlop are the only proven goalkickers we have right now.

It's like this season with Bartel. In discussions before the season started figures of 40 or even 50 goals were thrown about. He ended up with 27, which I would call a massive pass. So the modern game kind of forces you to be conservative in predictions.

 

[Eddie1994]

Let's just say I like to wait and see. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't spend time in the ruck, and I can't see Vardy not being moved through there at some point either. Out of all those players, Hawkins and Motlop are the only proven goalkickers we have right now.

It's like this season with Bartel. In discussions before the season started figures of 40 or even 50 goals were thrown about. He ended up with 27, which I would call a massive pass. So the modern game kind of forces you to be conservative in predictions.

Fair Point. I just have seen something in Clark, he has the ability to mark anything, is quick off the mark, and can kick 55m+. I know that he is a big risk, and has some baggage he has to deal with, so i do understand where you're coming from, but hey, a man can dream

 

[OzeSparky]

Ill probably be shot but going by those stats Walker should be the third tall. He can run all day and seems to put pressure on when he does play, so him and Kersten could be battling it out for same spot.

 

[Eddie1994]

Ill probably be shot but going by those stats Walker should be the third tall. He can run all day and seems to put pressure on when he does play, so him and Kersten could be battling it out for same spot.

I dont mind the idea of Walker as a backman, can read the play, and loves a good contest, will take a lot of work to make the transition, but is the most hopeful at the moment. I do love Walker, gives his all every time he walks onto the field, but he may find it hard to break in, the addition of Stanley just reinforces that to me. In all honesty, i think all of Walker's eggs should be thrown into the defender basket, especially while he still has Lonergan, Enright and Rivers to learn from. Don't disagree with you, just think it comes down to numbers.

 

[Partridge]

Ill probably be shot but going by those stats Walker should be the third tall. He can run all day and seems to put pressure on when he does play, so him and Kersten could be battling it out for same spot.

I hope not - not as third tall anyway. He's not quick enough. Much prefer to see Walker at centre half forward, and Kersten as the leadup forward. But given the recruits coming in and those returning from injury that may be unlikely.

 

[Partridge]

I dont mind the idea of Walker as a backman, can read the play, and loves a good contest, will take a lot of work to make the transition, but is the most hopeful at the moment. I do love Walker, gives his all every time he walks onto the field, but he may find it hard to break in, the addition of Stanley just reinforces that to me. In all honesty, i think all of Walker's eggs should be thrown into the defender basket, especially while he still has Lonergan, Enright and Rivers to learn from. Don't disagree with you, just think it comes down to numbers.

Just as a matter of interest, where would Taylor be?

I don't disagree that they need to start grooming someone (although I don't think Walker is that player), but it comes back to them taking a player out. And they've been extremely reluctant to do that the last couple of years.

 

[OzeSparky]

I hope not - not as third tall anyway. He's not quick enough. Much prefer to see Walker at centre half forward, and Kersten as the leadup forward. But given the recruits coming in and those returning from injury that may be unlikely.

IS Kersten quick?
I wouldn't call Walker slow, but I just don't think Kersten took that many marks out in front of his opponent, but that could be delivery or injury.
If Kersten is quick I don't think he showed it much in the big league.

 

[Eddie1994]

Just as a matter of interest, where would Taylor be?

I don't disagree that they need to start grooming someone (although I don't think Walker is that player), but it comes back to them taking a player out. And they've been extremely reluctant to do that the last couple of years.

That's the problem. We have a lot of ageing stars in our back half, that are all nearing the end, yet still in our best 22 when fit. The problem is now that with age comes the loss of speed, the wear and tear on the body. I think Blitz, Walker, Thurlow and Kolo will take over the defence in years to come. IMO, Walker should learn the craft in the 2's along with Blitz at stages, and then play defence against the lower ranked teams, giving the older guys a rest. The promise of permanent game time in 1-3 years after Rivers and Lono, possibly Mackie go, will entice a guy like Walker to make the transition, and I have seen enough to believe he can do it, whether this pans out is something else.

 

[Eddie1994]

IS Kersten quick?
I wouldn't call Walker slow, but I just don't think Kersten took that many marks out in front of his opponent, but that could be delivery or injury.
If Kersten is quick I don't think he showed it much in the big league.

He is a jet off the mark, just didnt really have the confidence in AFL this year. At VFL level he has burnt more than a few opponents off the mark, takes a lot of marks at flat chat, with hands at full stretch, almost impossible to spoil when this happens.

 

[OzeSparky]

He is a jet off the mark, just didnt really have the confidence in AFL this year. At VFL level he has burnt more than a few opponents off the mark, takes a lot of marks at flat chat, with hands at full stretch, almost impossible to spoil when this happens.

Hope he gets it then, No use doing stuff in the lower leagues and not transferring it up.

 

[Partridge]

IS Kersten quick?
I wouldn't call Walker slow, but I just don't think Kersten took that many marks out in front of his opponent, but that could be delivery or injury.
If Kersten is quick I don't think he showed it much in the big league.

I would think he's quicker than Walker. He's shown that he can lead up the ground to present, Walker hasn't shown he can do that yet.

Either way, as I said there might be others ahead of them in the queue. I can't see Vardy playing VFL and I'd be amazed if Clark does.

 

[Eddie1994]

Hope he gets it then, No use doing stuff in the lower leagues and not transferring it up.

Fingers crossed, but I don't think he was 100% all year either, so the MC and coaches have some Balme to take, however, rarely does a key forward take the comp by storm year 1.

 

[OzeSparky]

I would think he's quicker than Walker. He's shown that he can lead up the ground to present, Walker hasn't shown he can do that yet.

Either way, as I said there might be others ahead of them in the queue. I can't see Vardy playing VFL and I'd be amazed if Clark does.

You sure, he is coming back from a knee, they won't rush him, steady steady I reckon.

 

[Partridge]

You sure, he is coming back from a knee, they won't rush him, steady steady I reckon.

Maybe. Remember he injured it before Round 1 this year. So he's already missed a full season. Presuming he's available to do all of pre-season training, be hard to see him missing the pre-season games as well.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I think we may have to cut Clark some slack next season as he has been out of the system for a while so I expect it might take him a season to get used to playing at AFL intensity again and learning/mastering the Geelong gameplan. I think he will kick goals but if he can get us 20-30 for the year that would be a good return on top of Hawkins 60+.

 

[Whit3y]

very optimistic there edward

 

[Eddie1994]

very optimistic there edward

It's about time somone had some optimism on this page. But we will see, I think it is quiet realistic.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

I haven't seen a lot of Bartel's name in this thread so far, so I am interested in where others see him playing this year.

Personally, I don't really like seeing him in defence and I have doubts as to whether he can go back to full time midfield, so I think he will spend the majority of the year up forward again. I thought he played quite well up there this year (underrated season I reckon) even thought he was forced to play almost a centre half forward role at times. I think the addition of Clark and perhaps Stanley will help Bartel (and certainly Hawkins) next year.

 

[Eddie1994]

I haven't seen a lot of Bartel's name in this thread so far, so I am interested in where others see him playing this year.

Personally, I don't really like seeing him in defence and I have doubts as to whether he can go back to full time midfield, so I think he will spend the majority of the year up forward again. I thought he played quite well up there this year (underrated season I reckon) even thought he was forced to play almost a centre half forward role at times. I think the addition of Clark and perhaps Stanley will help Bartel (and certainly Hawkins) next year.

I see Jimmy playing a genuine utility role this season, playing basically wherever we need. If we aren't kicking goals he may go forward, if we need class in the centre he will go there, and if we are struggling down back he may head there. That's the beauty of Bartel, so versitile.

 

[Partridge]

I see Jimmy playing a genuine utility role this season, playing basically wherever we need. If we aren't kicking goals he may go forward, if we need class in the centre he will go there, and if we are struggling down back he may head there. That's the beauty of Bartel, so versitile.

He can't play in defence anymore though. Too slow and too many mistakes. We found that out the hard way in 2013.