Kennedy Parker
🎨𝖆𝖗𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙🎨
- Moderator
- #1
Was a bit bored over the offseason and curious about how finals series over the years have played out.
After a bit of analysis I started noticing a pattern that many premiership teams and dynasty teams had in common - the ability to make consecutive preliminary finals. Specifically, the ability of your team to make the prelims 4 years in a row is highly correlated with winning premierships.
Since the top 8 finals system was introduced in 1994. There have been eight teams that have managed to string together an era of four or more preliminary finals.
Many of the above are dynasty teams with multiple flags and have at least netted one flag during that run. In fact, if we break the above list down further into individual sequences of four consecutive prelims the pattern holds that no team has gotten to the penultimate week of the season four years in a row without being rewarded with at least one flag.
Dug into this a bit further and did something similar with sequences of three consecutive preliminary final years.
Since 1994, there have been 34 unique sequences of teams reaching the preliminary final in 3 consecutive years, 31 of these have resulted in at least 1 premiership -> 91%.
Another interesting stat that I found was that 20 of the last 31 premiers were teams that played in a prior year's preliminary final -> 65%.
Thinking of some reason that may explain this, in order to make the final four a team needs to prove itself competent and well run in a number of areas of the game
A premiership calibre team will generally tick off most of the above points, which is also what needs to be demonstrated to make the prelims year after year.
In applying the theory of consecutive prelims to my own team, it makes sense that despite making many grand finals in the last decade or so. Sydney have not come away with a premiership because we've never had a team strong enough to string together PF years since 2012-2014. IMO it's mostly due to us being light on depth which is proven by the fact that we fall down the ladder when we get a bad injury run in 2023 and 2025.
Interested to know what people make of this.
Currently, Brisbane are on a 4-year prelim streak. If they make it there again in 2026 I reckon they'd be hot favourites to complete the three-peat.
Geelong have made it there the last two years. If there make another top 4 and get there again, history seems to suggest they'll convert it into a flag.
After a bit of analysis I started noticing a pattern that many premiership teams and dynasty teams had in common - the ability to make consecutive preliminary finals. Specifically, the ability of your team to make the prelims 4 years in a row is highly correlated with winning premierships.
Since the top 8 finals system was introduced in 1994. There have been eight teams that have managed to string together an era of four or more preliminary finals.
- North Melbourne 1994-2000
- Brisbane 2001-2004
- Geelong 2007-2011
- Collingwood 2009-2012
- Hawthorn 2011-2015
- Richmond 2017-2020
- Geelong 2019-2022
- Brisbane 2022-2025 (ongoing)
Many of the above are dynasty teams with multiple flags and have at least netted one flag during that run. In fact, if we break the above list down further into individual sequences of four consecutive prelims the pattern holds that no team has gotten to the penultimate week of the season four years in a row without being rewarded with at least one flag.
Dug into this a bit further and did something similar with sequences of three consecutive preliminary final years.
Since 1994, there have been 34 unique sequences of teams reaching the preliminary final in 3 consecutive years, 31 of these have resulted in at least 1 premiership -> 91%.
Another interesting stat that I found was that 20 of the last 31 premiers were teams that played in a prior year's preliminary final -> 65%.
Thinking of some reason that may explain this, in order to make the final four a team needs to prove itself competent and well run in a number of areas of the game
- performance needs to be strong enough to handle tougher draws
- game plan has to be adaptable and robust enough to stand up after opposition coaches have spent multiple years studying on how to counter it
- recruitment has to be good enough to improve the list continuously while having less draft capital
- when there is a year where inevitably injuries test the team's depth, the list needs to bat deep enough to still win games consistently while missing key players
- players' mentality and game plan has to stand up to finals pressure given in order to make the prelims you have to at least win 1 final each year
A premiership calibre team will generally tick off most of the above points, which is also what needs to be demonstrated to make the prelims year after year.
In applying the theory of consecutive prelims to my own team, it makes sense that despite making many grand finals in the last decade or so. Sydney have not come away with a premiership because we've never had a team strong enough to string together PF years since 2012-2014. IMO it's mostly due to us being light on depth which is proven by the fact that we fall down the ladder when we get a bad injury run in 2023 and 2025.
Interested to know what people make of this.
Currently, Brisbane are on a 4-year prelim streak. If they make it there again in 2026 I reckon they'd be hot favourites to complete the three-peat.
Geelong have made it there the last two years. If there make another top 4 and get there again, history seems to suggest they'll convert it into a flag.
