General Markets Talk

[DaRick]

Nearing $3000 usd an ounce.

Miners have done well too - I sold mine prematurely, in retrospect. Luckily I still had AEM on hand.

TBH, I'm bullish on gold, but even more bullish on silver. Gold's already hit an all-time high, whereas silver hasn't.

I did expect gold to go sideways for a few months, but that hasn't happened because people are flying to safe assets (which gold often is).

 

[Mofra]

Looks like a bit of a re-trace on the XJO, second green day in a row. Taking profits on my shorts, will look at fibonacci ratios (resistance levels) for more downside exposure in coming trading sessions.

 

[Kram]

Good day for my portfolio.

 

[Mofra]

Close to 7880 for the XJO on open.
Expecting a few more green days, a retrace to 8012 (33%) or 8148 (50%) and if it resumes a downward trend, could be a short play again.

 

[Kram]

Probably just a dc bounce with more volatility to come.

 

[DaRick]

I haven't bought any Nasdaq stocks, only LNG stocks ($WBM) and copper stocks ($SCCO). $AEM's still doing well, and uranium might have bottomed.

 

[Kram]

Stay long gold.

 

[Mofra]

Market doesn't know what it wants to do. Long tails on the candles yesterday and today (XJO).

Looks like a tariff decision is due 2 April so there should be a little more market-moving news soon.

The US consumer sentiment numbers are bad though. Really bad. China's numbers are looking positive though, retail sales beating expectations last month even though CPI fell in February.

US Fed meeting tomorrow could give us some signs as well.

 

[sabre_ac]

Market doesn't know what it wants to do. Long tails on the candles yesterday and today (XJO).

Looks like a tariff decision is due 2 April so there should be a little more market-moving news soon.

The US consumer sentiment numbers are bad though. Really bad. China's numbers are looking positive though, retail sales beating expectations last month even though CPI fell in February.

US Fed meeting tomorrow could give us some signs as well.

The April Tariffs are the more substantial, aren't they? The Canadian Tariff war alone could throw both countries into a recession. Canada is a major trading partner of the US, particularly in key goods. Until this is either resolved or in place for a few months with predicability to follow, the markets will likely be skittish.

 

[Mofra]

The April Tariffs are the more substantial, aren't they? The Canadian Tariff war alone could throw both countries into a recession. Canada is a major trading partner of the US, particularly in key goods. Until this is either resolved or in place for a few months with predicability to follow, the markets will likely be skittish.

Yep - decision due 2 April.
Massive supplier of energy to northern states.

Auto loan delinquency numbers rising in the US. A few canaries singing.

 

[sabre_ac]

Yep - decision due 2 April.
Massive supplier of energy to northern states.

Auto loan delinquency numbers rising in the US. A few canaries singing.

I’m not one to sit on cash ever, but I’ve decided to hold off on investing new cash into any market until after April.

It goes against every instinct I have and I certainly haven’t sold any holdings, but I’m holding off on investing.


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[DaRick]

On copper - decided to sell $SCCO for a 1% loss as a result:



In this climate, what I'll do is utilise short-term trades with fairly tight stop losses.

I'll also short $F (Ford), since their technicals look ghastly, and Trump's tariffs will erode their revenue by up to 64%.

$RIVN won't suffer from such, so I'll take a punt on them. $VNM too, in light of them maybe not being subjected to Chinese tariffs in light of them being adversarial towards China.

 

[DaRick]

I’m not one to sit on cash ever, but I’ve decided to hold off on investing new cash into any market until after April.

It goes against every instinct I have and I certainly haven’t sold any holdings, but I’m holding off on investing.


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I think that's a good idea.

I suspect we get a short-term bounce before a further decline.

 

[Kram]

Even my gold juniors are catching a bid now.

 

[Mofra]

I’m not one to sit on cash ever, but I’ve decided to hold off on investing new cash into any market until after April.

It goes against every instinct I have and I certainly haven’t sold any holdings, but I’m holding off on investing.


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I got some index put warrants again on Thursday.

Still keeping a fair bit of capital dry though. May get more shorts if the market keeps tanking pre-2 April, especially if the orange idiot goes even further with his tariffs.

 

[Kram]

I'm not clever enough to short anything.

 

[DaRick]

I'm not clever enough to short anything.

I'm only shorting $GM (General Motors), and that's because I think Trump's tariffs will decimate their revenue.

This should be around the point where you get a tactical bounce, based on historical data, but it ain't happening.

EDIT: Actually, I reckon SPY bounces to 564-575. I bought $MGNI this morning because 1) it can't go much lower, 2) I've added a tight stop loss and 3) it benefits from growing digital TV advertising expenditure.

Have bought an in-the-money US500 5500 call EXP 16/4/25 (around yesterday's lows + support), to reduce time decay and offer myself a margin of safety while potentially receiving immediate profit, since I expect a quick rise to 564-575 (i.e. - before the expiry date).

 

[DaRick]

I'm not clever enough to short anything.

Shorting's hard because not only does the company have to suck (or be in a sucky position), but the market usually goes up, so getting the timing right's extra important.

I've had cases where I've been stopped out...only for the stock to go down later anyway. Aggravating.

 

[Kram]

Exactly, it's why analysts very rarely have the courage to put a sell rating on a stock.

 

[Mofra]

I'm not clever enough to short anything.

I only short the index via put warrants (ETO spreads & time values mean it's very easy to lose cash otherwise). Long dated and well in the money.

Sparingly.

There are a lot of recession indicators flashing at the moment which is the only reason I'm comfortable going short. 2 April could upend it all though.

 

[DaRick]

Exactly, it's why analysts very rarely have the courage to put a sell rating on a stock.

True, but analysts tend to be reactive, not proactive,

I sold that put for a $40 profit, DWIW. The SPY could be nearing a peak, and there was still decay.

 

[Mofra]

Shorts looking pretty healthy this morning.
Markets don't like externalities - like tariffs.

 

[DaRick]

The calculation of these tariffs is stupid beyond all belief:



Trump's well on the way to successfully uniting South Korea, Japan and China - something that never happens.

Have taken a $38 loss on the VEQ (Europe) ETF due to the uncertainty caused by the tariffs, plus it's forming a H&S pattern.

Have kept EWG (Germany) because I still believe in that thesis long-term.

 

[DaRick]

Have sold IHHY (global high-yield bonds) for a 1.1% loss and replaced with TBIL (US 1-3 month bonds).

A US recession looks likely, and the latter would outperform in that scenario.

 

[Mofra]

Have sold IHHY (global high-yield bonds) for a 1.1% loss and replaced with TBIL (US 1-3 month bonds).

A US recession looks likely, and the latter would outperform in that scenario.

Yeah the market watchers are now predicting a 55% chance of a recession this year, up from 45% a week ago.

It will be interesting to watch how it unfolds as traditionally, bear markets are is much shorter duration than bull markets but with the global economy so delicate right now, even small black swans can lead to huge volatility.