Goal kickers 2015

[RussellEbertHandball]

Last year I went out on a limb and said we could kick the 3rd or 4th highest number of goals in the home and away and with finals we could kick over 400 goals around 420. What I got way out of wack was that the defensive improvement across the AFL and that whilst we would improve to the 3rd highest at the end of home and away season it would be 50 or so goals less than I predicted and 2nd highest for the whole season.

This is how many goals were kicked in the full season the previous 10 years. So since we won the flag only 196 extra goals but 22 extra games.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Footystats/Biglad14.html

Year, games G...... B.... P
2014 (207) 5208 4721 35969
2013 (207) 5561 4885 38251
2012 (207) 5518 4923 38031
2011 (196) 5285 4668 36378
2010 (186) 4856 4405 33541
2009 (185) 4913 4207 33685
2008 (185) 5238 4609 36037
2007 (185) 5107 4646 35288
2006 (185) 4959 4488 34242
2005 (185) 5118 4288 34996
2004 (185) 5012 4261 34222



This is what happened between 2013 and 2014 home and away part of season re scoring.


The amount of goals we would kick I made a prediction in October 2013 over trade period and put the same numbers into a thread that I started on 17th March 2014 the day after we played Carlton at Docklands. See link below for the numbers and discussion and people saying I had over estimated

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/goalkickers-scoring-in-2014.1053123/

So in 2014 I was way over confident about Butcher by 48, but about right for Schulz, Wingard, Hoff 10 over but Gray 10 under, Monfries over by 20 because he got injured, Neade only played half the games i thught he would, I had nothing for White and Polec and they kicked 25+17 respectively. Hartlett I was a little under as was Boak, Ollie, they didnt spend as much time forward as I thought, although Ollie reckons he will this year.Ebo was under as well.

And our poor goal kicking especially about round 8 onwards did help with my predictions. So given all that this is my predictions for 2015.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Some basic stats for the 2014

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Some more detailed ones from AFL website comparing other clubs re Inside 50's, mark's inside 50's and accuracy.

 

[Andre]

I'd have less for Wingard with more midfield time. And I think Lobbe around 15 as not being the only ruck he'll be able to spend time forward as a tall target, rather then needing careful management.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

And who and why the Hawks kicked 56 more goals than us, ie their top 3 goals kickers kicked 70's and 2 50's vs our 60's and 2 40's and they had more blokes kick 20 goals than us.

 

[Killer Power]

Good thread REH. I would knock Polec up a little higher and drop Gus back as i think he will miss games :-(
Harvey to get some games, interesting.... Maybe if Ryder gets a holiday too it can't be ruled out.

 

[tangolikelama]

REH pls..

I think Westhoff will kick plenty more with the addition to Ryder* he doesn't have to play some wack game plan

 

[ScottA]

Interesting... I think that the defensive trend of the competition will continue a bit more and that the aggregate goals kicked in the season will be down by about the same amount. My call for us = 400 goals. From REH analysis -5 for Schulze (will be rested a couple of games & will not be such a key focus), and -10 Harvey and Butch combined (I think these guys might get 5 games between them).

Our key is not the number of inside entries increasing but the quality. Hopefully a more mature, better developed mid field can deliver via Ryder and others an additional 38 goals from last year.

 

[jmumbles]

that butch prediction hurts a bit

 

[Powerstufff]

that butch prediction hurts a bit

Mmmmm. If he actually gets to play with the Power at all this year it will be a tribute to the coaching staff. 10 goals would imply, what, at least 4 games? If so, while I imagine he wouldn't be re-contracted, we could at least say we didn't dump him on the junk heap.

 

[jmumbles]

Mmmmm. If he actually gets to play with the Power at all this year it will be a tribute to the coaching staff. 10 goals would imply, what, at least 4 games? If so, while I imagine he wouldn't be re-contacted, we could at least say we didn't dump him on the junk heap.

i actually meant the prediction for 2014, but yeah, i see your point

 

[Powerstufff]

i actually meant the prediction for 2014, but yeah, i see your point

OK, you probably did need a little more of that thought typed and a little less in your head. Still any Butcher mention livens up a thread so I'll put a cricketer's box on and see what follows.

 

[mic59]

OK with most of them. The two I think least likely are Butcher and Harvey, I can't see them getting anywhere near enough games. Monfries and Ryder's totals still depend on ASADA. Think Neade may kick a few more than 20, especially if he has to stand in for Monfries for a while.

 

[FallingLiefs]

i could cry if we only get 25 goals from our rucks this season. specifically only the 5 from Lobbe. Ryder kicked 20 odd last year and he played full time ruck. Other than that i think Monfries could surprise a few.

 

[jmumbles]

i could cry if we only get 25 goals from our rucks this season. specifically only the 5 from Lobbe. Ryder kicked 20 odd last year and he played full time ruck. Other than that i think Monfries could surprise a few.

i agree with monfries, hopefully he'll have a better run with injuries, and i can't see him pushing as many midfield minutes as he did in his first year here

 

[cmpower]

Schulz 60
Wingard 50
Monfries and Hoff 35
Neade and Ryder 20
Lobbe 20

Midfielders to increase goal scoring

 

[Dalfino]

I can't see Schulz kicking more than 60 goals this year with Ryder in the mix - we don't need to rely on him as much and he is getting towards the end of his career, but I can still see him kicking over 60 if we don't hit a patch of poor form and we finally start putting away games against the bottom sides by 8 goals or more consistently - Brisbane and Carlton were great, sure, but what about the 2 times we played Melbourne, Suns and Giants away? If we can beat a Crows, Richmond or Geelong side by 40-50 points, surely we should be tearing these bottom-8 sides up.

All of that being said, I can see the competition defense standards increasing again - the teams we smashed last year - Carlton, Bulldogs, Brisbane and St. Kilda, all should improve this year; Brisbane and Bulldogs have had pretty decent trade periods, Carlton actually have some good players but aren't getting results, and I don't really have much to say on St. Kilda's front... but either way, the competition gets harder and harder each and every year.

I'm just hoping for more comfortable wins, seeing Westhoff and Monfries kick in the 30s (I thought they both had a pretty mediocre year in front of goals last season) and seeing our defense improve just as much as our goal-kicking. Would rather win 100-50 than 200-150.

 

[philreich]

I think the key here is for us to have a minimum of 8 goal kickers every week. If we can manage that, we'll win a lot more games than we lose.

 

[Power Trip]

Mason Shaw will get games before Mitch Harvey


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Powerstufff]

Mason Shaw will get games before Mitch Harvey ...

Not much use posting that unless you argue why.

 

[Concussion]

I hoping Amon kicks 10 this year

 

[Nemisis]

Shultzy to have a break out season at the age of 31. - 77 goals and wins the Coleman.

 

[Shaxx Attaxx]

I can see Jay dropping off a bit. With a combination of age, the fearless way he plays and the addition of Ryder (if he plays). In saying that we might see the end of the double teams on him since you wouldn't want to leave Ryder or Hoff by themselves. A full Port side will cause some headaches no doubt.

 

[Jim Dixon]

I think REH is being optimistic here. We only kicked 350 goals in 2014, and I think despite the 'trend' towards more run and carry football, I think we'll continue to see scoring rates decline across the board.

[edit] 362 goals. mea culpa. thanks REH

With our continuing improvements, I'll suggest at best we'll get 375 goals for the season. I'm hoping for a bit more improvement from the Teal Curtain, and our goals against will decline from 280 goals to 260.

 

[Willsy10]

i predict: 35 goals for Butch