Analysis How bad has our form been?

[therubbernub]

Round 7 Worse start in our history blah blah blah.

Yes its been disappointing, yes there have been moments of despair, but the reality is that as of this moment out of our first 7 games we have played

1.THE TOP 3 TEAMS : Tigers WCE and Adelaide

2. The other games :

a. Gold Coast- The Lynch factor

b. Pies - Resurgent and top 8 IMO

c. Nth- currently 7th

d. Dogs-

There is no disgrace to lose to the top 3 teams IMO . We were far from disgraced against the tigers or WCE. And yesterday there were some very positive signs from our younger players. Our second quarter shows us that we are on the right track.

Hit and Miss with the other games.
In the Gold Coast game I think we saw the first signs of what was to come, in the failure of our team defense. We were completely dysfunctional in defense, led by the hapless Jones. Lynches 8 goals flattered him, there were some pretty soft goals kicked by Tom especially in the first 1/2 which were mostly due to the team defence failure. Gold Coast came into the game with a new coach and a good win against North in the first round. Additionally they seem to be a team that we struggle against- they beat us in rd 4 2017 and it took a huge game from Gibbs in rd 13 to avoid a second defeat . Their pace worries us.

Reeling from our shock loss to GCS's we went into the game against the Pies still trying to rectify our defence. It wasnt to be and we went down to the Pies by 4 goals. The next week the pies flogged the crows by 50 points. In hindsight , not our worse effort.

Bereft of confidence, our defence continued to let us down in the game against North . We found it very hard to score, and this was by far our poorest performance

After a good showing against West Coast, we went into the game against the Dogs with some hope. We never really looked like winning, but we outscored them in the second half- a good sign. The Dogs are a hard team to work out.

There are a number of factors at play at the moment contributing to our poor start.

1 Playing our young players: We are pumping the games into our youngsters as fast as we can. this is a necessary, but it is bound to produce some ordinary results.

2 playing the youngsters is being exacerbated by the injuries to key experienced players . We can ill afford injuries with our thin depth, but this is what is happening. This has a flow on effect to the youngsters who are being forced to absorb too much as they are not being protected by the senior players- as they are in the better teams.

3 learning a new game plan. BB is rightly starting us on our next journey, where we have to transition from a defensive mindset to a more offensive one. It takes time, and it takes senior players to help reinforce the message onfield to the younger players. The loss of Docherty Murphy, Kreuzer, Marchbank, Lang etc have not helped this transition.

All things considered we havent performed that badly. One shocking result against North is the standout result. There are many reasons to think that we will get better as the year progresses. The 3 factors that are contributing to our current performance, will undoubtedly lessen .
1 Our younger players seem to be improving with every game. Dow, LOB, Zac, Garlett, SPS, Charlie, Harry. We are pumping games into them asap and their fitness and consistency is improving every week.
2 Our injuries are horrendous atm. It is hard to see this getting worse. If we get players like Murphy, Marchbank, Weitering, Kennedy, Pickett, Lang, charlie, Byrne, williamson back and playing well, then the domino effect on the youngsters will be a huge positive
3 Every game that we play, gets us closer to the goal of consolidating our new game plan. Even when we reach that goal, it will be a few years of the same group playing it together and instinctualising it before we see the full results.

 

[Gethelred]

This is an interesting idea for a thread, fills a niche between the Autopsy and Preview threads, projecting our overall performance rather than an individual result.

It's pretty hard to say where we're at right now. You don't lose 7 on the trot without being pretty poor, but we already knew we were poor before injuries struck. We've had to ad lib a midfield from the skerricks of what remains after injury, 42 delistings, and the talented yet underdone youngsters. Our starting midfielders in the VFL consisted of an undersized key forward and a small forward flanker, as well as a Bullants stalwart, and a bloke known only for being immense. That we got our first win for the year against Frankston - a side that failed to field a team last year in the VFL - is testament to how low we are at the moment.

That being said, the biggest difference between this year and last is that we were by and large fairly fit heading into round 1, and by the end of the year the NB's entire starting key back setup had played ones and starred. We were more than just competative in the VFL last year, we were a good side.

We have further to go, but we are constantly at the mercy of our eldest 10 players. They play well - better than what can be expected from some of them - and the kids can come along for a quarter, and we'll put some fear into nearly anyone; whether or not we hold on from there will be anyone's guess. They play poorly, the kids drop their heads, and we're getting smashed.

The whole thing isn't helped by the current predilection competition wide for big wins at home. At no point in modern AFL history has it been easier for a middle rung side to take an ordinary one to pieces at home; there's more than a ten goal turnaround in some cases, depending on the venue and the opposition.

I really do think that the second half of the season will be thoroughly more interesting than the first, if only because our access to players will be much improved.

 

[JustaBattler]

The team as it is on field is playing pretty much as would be expected. Most players are playing to their expected ability given development/age/ability. It is a very ordinary team right now with a few highlights offset by some ordinary players.
In other words nothing to get excited about or depressed about as far as team form goes.

As far as individual players go I'm pretty excited about Fisher/Lob/Charlie and Cripps and warming to Harry.I think none of these players will let the club down going forward.

 

[Cripps17]

At some point we also need to take accountability as well though. If our performance to date is considered as reasonable, fine, but then so too has every other team in the comp been performing reasonably, and at least slightly moreso than us in every case.

I'm not a fan that the rhetoric has seemingly changed from 'we want to be a team judged on effort' in year one to now 'young teams are inconsistent/sustained effort requires cohesion and time' etc. etc.

Wickzki made a comment in the gameday thread at half time that he would be happy with our performance irrespective of what happened in the second half. That type of thinking was acceptable in year one but I find it concerning if that's what is considered acceptable in year three.

Forget injuries, forget we're young, forget we have played mainly top 8 teams. Just get back to showing some desperation for the contest that we saw in the first two years, and we won't feel the need to come up with justifications. If you expect/accept losses AND inconsistent effort, that's when players become complacent. Where has our effort and expectation of it gone?

 

[Stefchook]

Bereft of confidence, our defence continued to let us down in the game against North . We found it very hard to score, and this was by far our poorest performance.

I agree with most of your post. But I reckon the GC performance was worse than the North performance (even though the scoreboard indicated otherwise).

 

[teknodeejay]

All things considered we havent performed that badly.

Yes we have. Completely blown off the park in all games so far and it would have been 10 goal losses in all of them if opposition had converted a healthier number of their immense scoring opportunities given. If they don't beat Essendon, the next opportunity for wins will be 7th and 13th of July. Lose those and we're a real shot at a winless season. It's that bad.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I consider this our one step backwards year after two steps forward in the previous two seasons. Taking into account our continuing injury problems. All things considered I actually expect us to make a leap forwards next year and finish closer to the eight than people will expect.

 

[teknodeejay]

finish closer to the eight than people will expect.

In the 12th-14th is closer than 18th style.. or legitimately a shot at finals? We won't be the latter. The former if things go well, which would set up the latter in 2020 you'd think.

 

[thylacine60]

I don't see form as truly relevant until we have a realistic, competitive team on the park

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

In the 12th-14th is closer than 18th style.. or legitimately a shot at finals? We won't be the latter. The former if things go well, which would set up the latter in 2020 you'd think.

If we can get our best 22 on the field for the majority of the season, I personally don't think 10th - 12th is unreasonable to suggest, assuming natural improvement of the younger players and some quality trades/ FA. I'm happy with where we are at moving forwards.

 

[teknodeejay]

If we can get our best 22 on the field for the majority of the season, I personally don't think 10th - 12th is unreasonable to suggest, assuming natural improvement of the younger players and some quality trades/ FA. I'm happy with where we are at moving forwards.

Im just hoping this is a what used to be called tanks type season while they just get games in, knowing its going to be a defeat (hoping otherwise) and setting up for next year. If it's not, then it really is a bad situation.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Im just hoping this is a what used to be called tanks type season while they just get games in, knowing its going to be a defeat (hoping otherwise) and setting up for next year. If it's not, then it really is a bad situation.

I don't think its that at all. Its just a crippling and seemingly continuing injury toll to our best 22 players that's actually giving us the freedom to just keep playing the young guys. I just have this feeling for next year that when we get our best team together, we will jump forwards further than people expect, not as far forward as playing finals though, I'm confident of quite a marked improvement next year.

 

[Wickzki]

Wickzki made a comment in the gameday thread at half time that he would be happy with our performance irrespective of what happened in the second half. That type of thinking was acceptable in year one but I find it concerning if that's what is considered acceptable in year three.

The sad fact of the matter is that we don't have a team capable of playing with a legitimate premiership favorite over 4 quarters.

We had 3 players last night in the 24-30 year age bracket who you can depend on to help your team put in a winning performance. Those are Kreuzer, Daisy, and Ed Curnow.

You have 3 more who are questionably good enough, on their day, to be counted on in Casboult, Wright, and Liam Jones (2017 Liam).

You have Andrew Phillips, Aaron Mullett, Cam O'Shea and Sam Kerridge who are very questionable contributors (may contribute a contribution to a winning side a few times a year but could never do it on a consistent enough basis).

This is the primary age group that you expect to impact the Wins and Loss columns more than anybody else. If the 23 and unders like Cripps, Fisher, etc. contribute to a win then you applaud them for doing so but it's not to be expected. Older blokes like Kade Simpson are there to support the 23 and unders with their leadership and to put in as good a performance as possible. But they're usually past the point where they're counted on to win games of football for you (e.g. they become the cream rather than being the key cogs they once were).

Contrast this to Adelaide:

24-30: Rory Laird, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Paul Seedsman, Bryce Gibbs, David Mackay, Hugh Greenwood, Tom Lynch, Sam Jacobs, Daniel Talia, Andy Otten, Luke Brown and Josh Jenkins.

Betts and Richard Douglas are 31 so just outside that age group.

Jake Kelly, Matt Crouch, Rory Atkins, Mitch McGovern, are in their 23-24 season and are just entering the expectation to contribute to wins bracket.

That's a total of 12 players. All of them are dependable players. Some on the lower end of that scale but I'd take every single one of them before Phillips, O'Shea, Kerridge, and Mullett. I'd also be more than likely to take them all before Casboult, Wright, and Jones. Comparatively it's almost 12 players to 3. That's based strictly on last night's lineups and not accounting for the injuries both teams are suffering from.


The problem isn't the kids. That's why I find the positives in the second quarter. That a lot of that was contributions by the younger players gives me quite a bit of hope that when they do reach that age that they'll become dependable performers capable of winning games of football. Yes, I'd like to see less skill errors and question skills development (e.g. Cripps is far too good a footballer to be so consistently poor at set shots from 30 meters out on slight angles) but it is what it is.

Unless injuries get in the way - touch wood - then you can almost lock Dow and O'Brien in as future star midfielders. That's not stars for Carlton but considered as such across the league. We already know how good Cripps is. There are others too. There are a few youngsters who worry me (Petrevski-Seton for one) but the fact that we're 0-7 has nothing to do with our 23 and unders.

In conclusion, we're paying the price harder this year for the woeful recruiting from immediately after the acquisition of Chris Judd to the 2015 AFL Draft. This is how I expected our 2017 season to unfold. And it would have too had Bryce Gibbs not had a career year.

 

[Gethelred]

Yes we have. Completely blown off the park in all games so far and it would have been 10 goal losses in all of them if opposition had converted a healthier number of their immense scoring opportunities given.

If we hadn't lost Doc...
If Gibbs wasn't traded...
If Murph hadn't gone down two minutes before the bounce...

What if's a mug's game. All of these things happened, and arguing that they shouldn't have is irrelevant. If we're going to dredge up 'what if's, I've more than a few of my own.

 

[Juddalenko]

The sad fact of the matter is that we don't have a team capable of playing with a legitimate premiership favorite over 4 quarters.

We had 3 players last night in the 24-30 year age bracket who you can depend on to help your team put in a winning performance. Those are Kreuzer, Daisy, and Ed Curnow.

You have 3 more who are questionably good enough, on their day, to be counted on in Casboult, Wright, and Liam Jones (2017 Liam).

You have Andrew Phillips, Aaron Mullett, Cam O'Shea and Sam Kerridge who are very questionable contributors (may contribute a contribution to a winning side a few times a year but could never do it on a consistent enough basis).

This is the primary age group that you expect to impact the Wins and Loss columns more than anybody else. If the 23 and unders like Cripps, Fisher, etc. contribute to a win then you applaud them for doing so but it's not to be expected. Older blokes like Kade Simpson are there to support the 23 and unders with their leadership and to put in as good a performance as possible. But they're usually past the point where they're counted on to win games of football for you (e.g. they become the cream rather than being the key cogs they once were).

Contrast this to Adelaide:

24-30: Rory Laird, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Paul Seedsman, Bryce Gibbs, David Mackay, Hugh Greenwood, Tom Lynch, Sam Jacobs, Daniel Talia, Andy Otten, Luke Brown and Josh Jenkins.

Betts and Richard Douglas are 31 so just outside that age group.

Jake Kelly, Matt Crouch, Rory Atkins, Mitch McGovern, are in their 23-24 season and are just entering the expectation to contribute to wins bracket.

That's a total of 12 players. All of them are dependable players. Some on the lower end of that scale but I'd take every single one of them before Phillips, O'Shea, Kerridge, and Mullett. I'd also be more than likely to take them all before Casboult, Wright, and Jones. Comparatively it's almost 12 players to 3. That's based strictly on last night's lineups and not accounting for the injuries both teams are suffering from.


The problem isn't the kids. That's why I find the positives in the second quarter. That a lot of that was contributions by the younger players gives me quite a bit of hope that when they do reach that age that they'll become dependable performers capable of winning games of football. Yes, I'd like to see less skill errors and question skills development (e.g. Cripps is far too good a footballer to be so consistently poor at set shots from 30 meters out on slight angles) but it is what it is.

Unless injuries get in the way - touch wood - then you can almost lock Dow and O'Brien in as future star midfielders. That's not stars for Carlton but considered as such across the league. We already know how good Cripps is. There are others too. There are a few youngsters who worry me (Petrevski-Seton for one) but the fact that we're 0-7 has nothing to do with our 23 and unders.

In conclusion, we're paying the price harder this year for the woeful recruiting from immediately after the acquisition of Chris Judd to the 2015 AFL Draft. This is how I expected our 2017 season to unfold. And it would have too had Bryce Gibbs not had a career year.

Great post. Samo needs to get back to basics and stop lairising.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

How can we judge this? Bolton is battling to send out the same 22 and with the immense amount of injuries there is no way of knowing. Thread idea is good and should be kept for later when we stabilise and into the future.

 

[Gethelred]

Great post. Samo needs to get back to basics and stop lairising.

Don't think that's his problem.

Played instinctual footy last year, all get and go. Now, he's thinking, watching, trying to create and not taking the first option, good enough to find sufficient space to not take the second option and then when he finally has to release or get pinged for holding the ball the third option's the worst of the lot, and he's under pressure when he kicks.

It doesn't help that he makes one effort, then can't quite make the second. There's no fitness like match fitness, and playing twos isn't going to cut it; would you weaken an already weak midfield by promoting JSOS - who's played midfield for two/three matches - or Poulson, who's simply not anywhere near it yet? If we had a full complement, and Kerridge or Graham were currently in the twos, certainly send him back and tell him to play instinctively - I don't actually think that would help him, as the greater time in the VFL could exacerbate his issue - but we don't have that luxury.

I also think that the comparison from him to Burgoyne is wrong. He's not a slower Burgoyne, he's a faster Sam Mitchell, and if we wait for him to develop the tank and get back to playing instinctual footy, we'll be much happier with him.

 

[Blues_1864]

All things considered we havent performed that badly. One shocking result against North is the standout result. There are many reasons to think that we will get better as the year progresses.

Agree with the second part, but not the first. The most damning indictment of our season to date is that we haven't gotten within striking distance of anyone, including Gold Coast in Melbourne and a depleted Bulldogs side on a six-day turnaround from being pumped in Perth. Maybe it's not a total disgrace to lose those two games, but it's embarrassing that we never looked like snatching them at any stage. Obviously there are many contrasts with last year (e.g. Thomas was playing VFL 12 months ago, and the consensus was he was finished), but the lack of winning chances is the really stark one for me. We were generating them (withouit converting) seemingly every second week last year, including against top-four contenders.

On the bright side, we have generated a good opportunity to finish the 2018 season stronger than we started it, for the first time since I can't remember when (2014, maybe?). Some momentum in the back half of the season might give us some traction with player retention and attraction... but I can't imagine more than three or four wins, and I definitely can imagine fewer.

 

[ray8182]

At some point we also need to take accountability as well though. If our performance to date is considered as reasonable, fine, but then so too has every other team in the comp been performing reasonably, and at least slightly moreso than us in every case.

I'm not a fan that the rhetoric has seemingly changed from 'we want to be a team judged on effort' in year one to now 'young teams are inconsistent/sustained effort requires cohesion and time' etc. etc.

Wickzki made a comment in the gameday thread at half time that he would be happy with our performance irrespective of what happened in the second half. That type of thinking was acceptable in year one but I find it concerning if that's what is considered acceptable in year three.

Forget injuries, forget we're young, forget we have played mainly top 8 teams. Just get back to showing some desperation for the contest that we saw in the first two years, and we won't feel the need to come up with justifications. If you expect/accept losses AND inconsistent effort, that's when players become complacent. Where has our effort and expectation of it gone?

I don’t think desperation is the difference between this year and the previous two seasons.

There are so many other reasons such as injuries and age profile.

Don’t go down the path of “we’re just not trying hard enough”. It can be lazy thinking to use that as the reason for losing. It’s requires more effort to actually think through all the relevant issues.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[therubbernub]

Yes we have. Completely blown off the park in all games so far and it would have been 10 goal losses in all of them if opposition had converted a healthier number of their immense scoring opportunities given. If they don't beat Essendon, the next opportunity for wins will be 7th and 13th of July. Lose those and we're a real shot at a winless season. It's that bad.

It all depends on your criteria

At the start of the season would you have accepted a 10 point loss to the top team (WCE) , 26 point loss to last years premiers , and giving Adelaide a lesson in the second quarter. I think most would have taken that to be honest.

 

[Cripps17]

Don’t go down the path of “we’re just not trying hard enough”. It can be lazy thinking to use that as the reason for losing. It’s requires more effort to actually think through all the relevant issues.

Because what you've put forward below contravenes 'lazy thinking' and having not put in effort to think everything through?

There are so many other reasons such as injuries and age profile.

 

[ray8182]

Because what you've put forward below contravenes 'lazy thinking' and having not put in effort to think everything through?

I think it does. There are so many issues such as injuries, maturity, tactics etc.

My point is that supporters always come up with “the players need to be more desperate” line when there team is losing. It happens over and over again. It’s tiring to listen to. Yet if you asked them to identify all the relevant issues that may have lead to the series of losses they couldn’t. They just know if the players tried harder there club would start winning.

I don’t know if you do this regularly, maybe you don’t, but if your going to accuse the players of not trying hard enough you need to back it up with information that supports it. Poor form and bad results don’t necessarily indicate this.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ShanDog]

I don't see form as truly relevant until we have a realistic, competitive team on the park

Think there's definitely a bit of truth to this. In fact, without something close to best 22 out there, the big things we should care about are effort levels and playing to "the game plan", because if we are doing that right down to players 40-44, I reckon it's a good indicator of the direction our club is going.

 

[Jabba73]

Form has been good in patches, woeful for some, slightly below standard for large parts. About right for where we are.

Might be easier to judge when we have several players back and we are not forced into making multiple changes to the team every week.

 

[Wickzki]

Much of it is the age profile of the players.

We were out numbered 3 to 1 with regards to quality players in the 24-30 year age bracket on Saturday.

You're not going to get contributing performances to winning from 3/4 of our players in that age bracket.

Let's look at the top 9 and note the 24-30 year age bracket

Richmond: 18
West Coast: 17
Geelong: 17
Adelaide: 16
Hawthorn: 16
GWS: 15
Collingwood: 14
North: 13
Sydney: 13
**
Carlton: 13

Richmond: Grigg, Houli, Edwards, Riewoldt, Rance, Cotchin, Astbury, Martin, Grimes, Lambert, Conca, Caddy, Prestia, Broad, Townsend, Ellis, McIntosh, Vlastuin == 18 players

West Coast: J Kennedy, Hurn, MacKenzie, Schofield, Masten, Jetta, Naitanui, Shuey, Redden, Sheppard, Hutchings, McGovern, Cripps, Darling, Gaff, Lycett, Yeo == 17 players

Adelaide: Jacobs, MacKay, Jenkins, Gibbs, Otten, Sloane, Walker, Lynch, Talia, Hartigan, Seedsman, Greenwood, Brown, Ellis-Yolman, Laird, Crouch == 16 players

Hawthorn: Henderson, Frawley, Smith, Stratton, McEvoy, Rioli, Whitecross, Schoenmakers, Breust, Duryea, Shiels, Gunston, Langford, Mitchell, O'Meara, O'Brien == 16 players

GWS: Reid, De Boer, Ward, Davis, Scully, Haynes, Kennedy, Lobb, Shiel, Cameron, Patton, Tomlinson, Greene, Buntine, Coniglio == 15 players

Geelong: Selwood, Hawkins, Crameri, Tuohy, Henderson, Smith, Selwood, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavs, Duncan, Menzel, Menegola, Murdoch, Guthrie, Horlin-Smith, Bews == 17 players

North: Higgins, Goldstein, Tarrant, Wright, Ziebell, Cunnington, MacMillan, Jacobs, Atley, Brown, Williams, Garner, Anderson == 13 players

Sydney: Jack, Smith, JP Kennedy, Sinclair, Towns, Rampe, Hannebery, Rohan, Reid, Naismith, Parker, Lloyd, Cunningham == 13 players

Collingwood: Dunn, Pendlebury, Varcoe, Howe, Sidebottom, Cox, Thomas, Fasolo, Elliott, Treloar, Hoskin-Elliott, Adams, Crisp, Grundy == 14 players


Carlton: Daisy, Murphy, Rowe, Kreuzer, Ed Curnow, Wright, Casboult, Jones, Phillips, Mullett, O'Shea, Lamb, Kerridge == 13 players

I skipped over players from the top 9 sides who have only played a game or two but fit the age bracket (or who I don't perceive as valid contributors to winning football). Each team has more players and dare I suggest they're of the caliber of most of our 13. My questions here are;

1. How many of the following -- Rowe, Wright, Casboult, Jones, Phillips, Mullett, O'Shea, Lamb, Kerridge (9 of 13) -- would get a game in one of the top 9 sides?

This is a somewhat rhetorical question. None of them would be guaranteed a game on every side. A few may get a game due to perceived weakness on several teams (e.g. a team weak in KPF would use Casboult). The honest answer is that the vast majority wouldn't sniff a list spot on those clubs.

2. Are you prepared for the slow burn? That means developing and accumulating a list of quality footballers who are capable of winning in the years to come? Or are you wanting results effective immediately?

If the former then the players enter that 24-30 bracket;

2019: Docherty*, Cripps, Byrne, Plowman
2020: (Lang), Garlett, Pickett
2021: Marchbank, Curnow, Cuningham, Kennedy
2022: Weitering, Silvagni, McKay, Petrevski-Seton, (Polson), (Macreadie), (LeBois), Fisher, (Kerr)
2023: Williamson, (Schumacher), (De Koning)
2024: O'Brien, Dow

Doc is already in the bracket but obviously out for the year

Realistically, we're another three seasons away from being a genuine contender.

Idealistically, I'd like to see the club target players who are in the 20-22 age bracket now. But that takes identifying under performing assets and working out how you can pay unders for them (e.g. without costing us any of the '19-'24 list).

If the latter and you want results now, then are you willing to put a cap on the ultimate level of success that the club is able to achieve? Yes, you could add a free agent or two but then it becomes harder. Trades aren't free. When it comes to trading in ready made certain contributors your valuable commodities are the players yet to hit that 24-30 bracket or you're trading draft picks or future picks. Effectively, you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.

It's not a question of effort. It's having an unbalanced list with a limited number of players capable of contributing to a victory. The players are busting their guts out.