Prediction Q: If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

[JohnnyFontane90]

0-2 is not the be all and end all of anything in itself.

however a team that goes 0-2 is likely to be a below average team and below average teams don't make finals.

carlton are going to be 0-2 and it's very possible sydney will be, but their finals prospects are totally different. like anything, stats without a common sense application leads to ridiculous results.

 

[LeverPuller]

Is 2 losses to start the season any worse than losing 2 in a row at any other time of the year? What if you are 0-2 then go to 2-2, or start 2-0 then go to 2-2. All games are worth 4 points, a side that wins its first 2 then loses next 2, or a side that loses its first 2 and then wins it's next 2 will still have 8 points on the ladder.

Honestly, it is, because you lose your safety net.

At 0-2 you are playing catch up. You're a minimum of 4 points behind the bulk of the competition and 8 points behind the front runners. But you're relying on others to lose to catch up. It can be worse, but 8 points generally tips it from 2 wins to 3 due to percentage to catch up.

You HAVE to win. The pressure goes from some to high at 0-2 because the season is in jeopardy at that point.

By comparison, if you've won 13 but drop 2 straight...it hurts, but it isn't the end of the world because of the points you have banked.

 

[Bokonon_]

Only real question is can you win 13 games over the season and lock in finals. The answer is yes so your season isnt over.
Will depend on why as well, premiers often start slowly although the Bulldogs got tje points last week.
Wouldn't read too much into the Hawks or the Swans losses either. The Swans tend to start slow and the Hawks faced a hyper pumped bombers side.Traditionally they tend to perform better when more is at stake.
Collingwood were competitve in both their games, and the season wouldn't lòok bleak I would think. Different if they were flogged twice.

 

[Cudi_420]

Melbourne started 0-3 in 2006 (2005?) and made the finals.

No the end of the world. So long as you're at least at 50% wins by halfway and have a percentage >95% you're doing okay. They're 0-2 with 88%. Not doing too bad. They'll bounce back.

 

[eastfreo75]

Depends on your draw and much you lose by. If you lose two winnerable games and by big marginals then yes you need to look at list hard.

 

[demondavey]

Look, I know people have opened this thread thinking it's a moronic statement to make. But look at these stats

2008-2016

44 teams started 0-2.
1 Earned finals off their own back. (Sydney 2014)
I had to word it that way because Carlton 2013 did make it based on Essendon being kicked out.

Now ask yourself. Is it worth gunning for that years premiership.
There's a 2.27% chance in the last 9 years you're even making finals to begin with.

And it's not just s**t teams doing this.

2008 - Port Adelaide (Coming off a grand final) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2009 - Hawthorn (Coming off a premiership) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2010 - Adelaide (1 kick off a prelim) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2013 - West Coast (semi finalists) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2015 - Geelong (tied for 1st on points) missed finals after an 0-2 start
2015 - Port Adelaide (1 kick off a grand final) missed finals after an 0-2 start

I just look at these stats and I think a premiership is basically off the table if you start 0-2.
I think after that point, you just blood kids. Give them the support so theyre not pigs to slaughter like GOld Coast basically have been their whole existance.

I dont mean ditch all your experienced players, but rest 1-3 a week and give the kids a chance to show what they can do without putting them completely to hell.

What do others think?
I know it's a controversial thought to basically be admitting defeat and changing tactics to focus on the future (I view that as tanking) but when the stats are so strong, when has to contemplate if it's worth it.

And also remember, with GWS and GC now in the league that's another 2 teams you have to jump to get into the 8, so it's harder than it was back in 2008.

You know what? You're 100% right........

It is moronic statement to make....

0-2, wow, time to fold.

 

[Johnny Karate]

0-2 is not the be all and end all of anything in itself.

however a team that goes 0-2 is likely to be a below average team and below average teams don't make finals.

carlton are going to be 0-2 and it's very possible sydney will be, but their finals prospects are totally different. like anything, stats without a common sense application leads to ridiculous results.

This. You could be 0-2 and have lost tight games to good opposition or have copped 2 absolute thumpings.

The numbers are an anomaly and all it really boils down to is the talent and resilience of the group.

 

[IllBeTheJudge]

If you're 0-2 then you should definitely look to the future.
Round 3, for example.

 

[vozzon]

All depends on the current list, where players to develop and also who the games were lost to. For a mid table team like port last year, you dont bottom out but just get games into guys that wouldn't have got them and try and be half decent during the year.

For a team like Gold Coast in that mid to no man land territory (who prob need to do a bit of a re build) i would get games into youngsters, not risk any guys with injuries and get a low pick at the end of the year to compliment the players recruited last year.

For a team like hawthorn whom are doing a semi re build, they should play it out as best as they can as they, potentially get games into some younger players, as would be looking to recruit free agents so they would want to look competitive.

End of the day most people can look at a list and half determine where its at and judge it from there.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yep a couple of rough losses at the start of the season and the team should just give up for the season

random question. When you guys made the finals by winning 9 games in a from a 3 win and 10 losses position, didn't you guys lose your 1st 2-3 games?

 

[Freomaniac]

Melbourne started 0-3 in 2006 (2005?) and made the finals.

No the end of the world. So long as you're at least at 50% wins by halfway and have a percentage >95% you're doing okay. They're 0-2 with 88%. Not doing too bad. They'll bounce back.

Geelong were 0-3 in 2004 and were favourites for the spoon. They ended up In the top 4 with 15 wins

 

[aussierulesrules]

Geelong were 0-3 in 2004 and were favourites for the spoon. They ended up In the top 4 with 15 wins

It happened a lot back then apparently. Someone posted the last 20 years stats and it happened to 14 teams in the first 11 years of that 20, but since then it's only happened once in the last 9 years- twice if you count Carlton getting in off the back of Essendon being banned from playing in the finals.

So for whatever reason it appears to be much harder to come back from a 0-2 start these days.

Perhaps it's due to media scrutiny having gone through the roof in that time. The spotlight is now on teams that get off to a slow start more than ever and that extra pressure may be taking a toll.

 

[Freomaniac]

It happened a lot back then apparently. Someone posted the last 20 years stats and it happened to 14 teams in the first 11 years of that 20, but since then it's only happened once in the last 9 years- twice if you count Carlton getting in off the back of Essendon being banned from playing in the finals.

So for whatever reason it appears to be much harder to come back from a 0-2 start these days.

Perhaps it's due to media scrutiny having gone through the roof in that time. The spotlight is now on teams that get off to a slow start more than ever and that extra pressure may be taking a toll.

Still scratching my head Richmond making the finals from 3-10 though. I agree with one thing, Back in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, teams could lose the opening 2-3 games and no pressure was put on them. Coaches were given a chance to see the season out.

To be honest I rather be 0-2 then 3-10. At least you can afford to lose games from 0-2 to try and get those 12-13 wins to make the finals.

 

[cannot]

Still scratching my head Richmond making the finals from 3-10 though..

pretty much, just martin/lids/cotchin/rance/jack went mental and carried everyone else

come finals they were stuffed as every game was an elimination final for months

 

[Bazza97]

Geelong were 0-3 in 2004 and were favourites for the spoon. They ended up In the top 4 with 15 wins

North Melbourne back in 2007 was another one who were 0-3 and before the season had started I'm pretty sure they were one of the favourites for the wooden spoon. In the end they snuck into the top 4 with 14 wins and ended up making the prelim.

On a side note, 2007 would of been a year with a lot of surprises. 2007 was the last time there were 4 changes to the top 8 from the year before with North Melbourne, Geelong, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide coming in. That was also the year when none of the 4 preliminary finalists made that stage the year before in 2006 so it would of been a very interesting year I reckon.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Still scratching my head Richmond making the finals from 3-10 though. I agree with one thing, Back in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, teams could lose the opening 2-3 games and no pressure was put on them. Coaches were given a chance to see the season out.

To be honest I rather be 0-2 then 3-10. At least you can afford to lose games from 0-2 to try and get those 12-13 wins to make the finals.

That Richmond one was just an anomaly. One other thing that didn't exist 9+ years ago was social media. I bet that back then if someone saw you on the street they wouldn't have said the sort of things to your face that they'll now say to you from an anonymous Twitter account for instance.

Back then all you had to do was turn off the radio and not read the paper and you could avoid most of the heat. Now it's presumably a lot harder to get away from.

 

[Freomaniac]

That Richmond one was just an anomaly. One other thing that didn't exist 9+ years ago was social media. I bet that back then if someone saw you on the street they wouldn't have said the sort of things to your face that they'll now say to you from an anonymous Twitter account for instance.

lol good point. I wouldn't say derogatory words to Tony Plugger Locketts face unless I want a Broken nose. Mind you back then he was 190cm and 110 kgs. the big fella has slimmed down now.

 

[gandaal]

Fitzroy once finished last and still won the premiership.

 

[Farm Boy]

Look, I know people have opened this thread thinking it's a moronic statement to make. But look at these stats

2008-2016

44 teams started 0-2.
1 Earned finals off their own back. (Sydney 2014)
I had to word it that way because Carlton 2013 did make it based on Essendon being kicked out.

Now ask yourself. Is it worth gunning for that years premiership.
There's a 2.27% chance in the last 9 years you're even making finals to begin with.

Based on these statistics, and based off of Buckley's own admission (that he needs to play finals to keep his job). Buckley should be a 2.27% chance of coaching the Magpies beyond 2017?

 

[STFU Donnie]

Agree with most of it. But why naked?

You can always reuse the uniforms, but not if they're splattered with the remains of the former wearers.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Richmond made the finals after starting 3-10.
History means s**t ******* all.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

It's always time to look to the future, no matter how things are at present.

 

[Hobbes]

according to footywire, Adelaide finished 4th in 1997

they won 4 finals in a row, but that was under the McIntyre Final 8 system.

Bulldogs are the first under the current system to win outside Top 4.

Adelaide in 1997 did win four finals to win the premiership, but they finished the minor round fourth. You might be thinking of 1998, when they played four away finals to win the premiership (losing the first, but that was generally survivable from 5th in that final system).

 

[Doss]

It's a hopelessly simplified question that doesn't have a simple answer.

For example, North started 1999 0-2, and then 1-3. Then 1999 premiers. They'd been up for years but had a powerful side with one of the greatest players in the game's history, and had come off what can only be described as a choke in the 1998 GF. If anyone had written them off at 0-2 (narrow loss to Geelong followed by a comprehensive one to Essendon), they'd have been silly, and so it proved.

Likewise, if Hawthorn lose to Adelaide they're 0-2. I don't think they'll be premiership capable this year, but I wouldn't be writing them off as being at least still finals capable.

On the other hand, if 0-2 has come about after what Melbourne dished up in 2013 - a 79 point loss to Port at home, and that 148 point horror show against Essendon following it - then yeah it's probably safe to conclude you're in for a long year.

 

[DylanR]

Flags aren't won in round 2.