Impulse Trading

[daniea01]

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

 

[DIG]

The way I see it it's actually smarter to admit your obvious mistakes and make a few early trades to get your team right while players are priced so inaccurately.

To wait until round 5 is basically saying "i got it right before round 1", and by then you're paying a premium for anyone you want, instead of taking advantage of underpriced players now.

In SC, I dumped Ball for Kerr after round 1 which i'm rapt with, for about the same price. And I'll probably make 1-2 trades of bench players today which should make me a good 400k or so. With no injuries too, I feel like i can afford to indulge in a few investments early.

 

[magpies03]

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

I understand the point your making and agree with it to a degree. Still think now is a smart time of year to trade before the good players start going up in value but i think your right, people should jjudge players after round 2. Could you post your team? Id be interested to see it

​

 

[daniea01]

.....Could you post your team? Id be interested to see it​

1. Gilbee (BAC)
2. H Shaw (BAC)
3. Adcock (BAC)
4. Wirrpunda (BAC)
5. C Cornes (BAC)
6. X Clarke (BAC)
7. Birchall (BAC)

8. Judd (CTR)
9. Rodan (CTR)
10. Rischitelli (CTR)
11. Foley (CTR)
12. M Murphy (CTR)
13. N Lappin (CTR)

14. Everitt (RUC)
15. Darcy (RUC)

16. Pavlich (FWD)
17. Chapman (FWD)
18. G Ablett (FWD)
19. O'Keefe (FWD)
20. Koschitzke (FWD)
21. Franklin (FWD)
22. Embley (FWD)
..............................

1. Riggio (BAC)
2. X Ellis (BAC)
3. L Thomas (CTR)
4. A Browne (CTR)
5. Hudson (RUC)
6. Griffin (RUC)
7. Al Davey (FWD)
8. M Campbell (FWD)

Funnily enough i have (at this stage) the same team for both SC and DT, Currently ranked 21st and 35th respectively.

By my logic i cannot see any sane reason why i would make any trades (for my team) at this stage of the comp. There would only be two cases that would force me to trade next week, these would be; injury or being able to make a direct trade to gun player from mid-range player due to price fluxuations. Im gonna be milking every dollar out of each of my trades.

 

[DIG]

Well, with a team like that you can argue after all that you got it pretty right from the start. There's plenty of opportunities to tweak now that would make quite a bit of money (eg. Riggio for Boyle's an easy one). But nothing that really cries out for mine.

In SC I made just one trade today - Thomas for Rodan. He'll be worth double, maybe triple soon even though Thomas has been ok. May backfire but I don't think so. I'm about 350th but had a monster week last week to come in 7th (for the week). Had i not dumped Ball for Kerr I'd be well back.

 

[roostertalk]

agree with you mate but it would be silly to miss out on the potential cash that some players will gain after this week.I think this is the only week that its justified though.

 

[Kaiser Powser]

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

Well done, you have picked a good side.

Unfortunately not everyones side has had as much forsight or fortune and may not be doing as well. People therefore take this opportunity to use some early trades to buy some undervalued players before their price rises.

I am not an advocate of trading out guns but the first two rounds are the best time to buy those players whose prices are going to boom.

I can't help but feel your attitude would be completely different if your team was struggling, and some of your expensive players were averaging 50. Then you would be considering trades.

 

[daniea01]

I can't help but feel your attitude would be completely different if your team was struggling, and some of your expensive players were averaging 50. Then you would be considering trades, trust me.

Perhaps, but i learnt an important lesson last year, in trading too much too early. Missed out on other bargains in the middle of the year, and then also with unexpected injury wasnt about to cash in some of my cashcow reserves, which defeats the purpose of having them in the first place. There will be plenty of bargains throughout the season as players debut, these should be utilized by cashing in previous cashcows IMO.

I never downgrade players for the sake of cash, this is just too risky, even trading players classed in the same tier is risky. My theory is always upgrade. Once you have an elite player, keep him. Aim make ur money on ur bench, if you gain cash on the field its a bonus (most likely from good initial selection!).

 

[Kaiser Powser]

Perhaps, but i learnt an important lesson last year, in trading too much too early. Missed out on other bargains in the middle of the year, and then also with unexpected injury wasnt about to cash in some of my cashcow reserves, which defeats the purpose of having them in the first place. There will be plenty of bargains throughout the season as players debut, these should be utilized by cashing in previous cashcows IMO.

I never downgrade players for the sake of cash, this is just too risky, even trading players classed in the same tier is risky. My theory is always upgrade. Once you have an elite player, keep him. Aim make ur money on ur bench, if you gain cash on the field its a bonus (most likely from good initial selection!).

I like your thinking. In theory to keep every gun and only upgrade by using your emergency players. I try to abide by the same rules. But I just can't ignore an underperforming star player who can be traded for an up and coming star who is a bargain and will make you 150k. That is the equivalent of selling two kids for money and the new cheaper player may well score better than the player you got rid of.

 

[tuzz]

I like your thinking. In theory to keep every gun and only upgrade by using your emergency players. I try to abide by the same rules. But I just can't ignore an underperforming star player who can be traded for an up and coming star who is a bargain and will make you 150k. That is the equivalent of selling two kids for money and the new cheaper player may well score better than the player you got rid of.

That's true but he'll only make you that money if/when you trade him out. Until then it's only a paper profit. Like daniea last year, I also traded too many players too early and coudn't pick up players later on in the season that were going strong. And I saw my DT guns that I traded out early (due to poor form/scores) drop in value after the firs few rounds, then pick up in value later on in the year. It's a long season and trades are gold.

 

[daniea01]

For example: lets take a very very common trade i have noticed on bigfooty.

Foley (239000) for Fiora (202800).

At this point in time they average 66.5 and 113 respectivally.
Next week they will change value by approx +6000 and +66000 (if they score at their average)
If u made the trade AND cash in next week, great you could make almost $100000.
BUT....
1. How many will cash in fiora next week?
2. Giving each another 3 or for rounds to play footy, whats the likelyhood of fiora continuing to score that high?
3. Does foley have the potential to score higher?
My answers would be:
1. Not many
2. Not likely
3. You wouldnt have picked him unless u thought so.
So......
Now i ask an open question, after five weeks or so when fiora has come down to earth and foley has starting to score to his potential how much cash have you actually gained from that trade?

 

[SuperCrows]

Now i ask an open question, after five weeks or so when fiora has come down to earth and foley has starting to score to his potential how much cash have you actually gained from that trade?

If I did this trade, I would keep Fiora for as long as his value doesn't fall. So, if he scores 50 this week, he'll have 120, 106, 50. If the week after, he scores another 50, his last week 3 weeks would be 106, 50, 50. By that stage, he'll be approx 280-300k and will probably drop in price the week after. Couple his new price + the 35-40k you get from the Foley to Fiora trade, you can trade Fiora in for someone approx 330k, which you'd assume would land you a gun. That's the worst case scenerio if Fiora doesn't perform. You'll either gain a 300k+ player quicker or Fiora will keep performing well and you have yourself 40k + a bargain.

...If that made any sense.

 

[daniea01]

If I did this trade, I would keep Fiora for as long as his value doesn't fall. So, if he scores 50 this week, he'll have 120, 106, 50. If the week after, he scores another 50, his last week 3 weeks would be 106, 50, 50. By that stage, he'll be approx 280-300k and will probably drop in price the week after. Couple his new price + the 35-40k you get from the Foley to Fiora trade, you can trade Fiora in for someone approx 330k, which you'd assume would land you a gun. That's the worst case scenerio if Fiora doesn't perform. You'll either gain a 300k+ player quicker or Fiora will keep performing well and you have yourself 40k + a bargain.

...If that made any sense.

Fair enough i agree you can make money! BUT, how can you rule out foley making you similar cash in the long run based on an point average that has come from two games?!?! Is the risk worth using a trade?

 

[SuperCrows]

Fair enough i agree you can make money! BUT, how can you rule out foley making you similar cash in the long run based on an point average that has come from two games?!?! Is the risk worth using a trade?

You can't, just like you can't rule out Fiora averaging 90+ for season and Foley averaging 70. Based on the first two games, that could very well happen, especially when you take into account Foley still receiving limited game time and only managed a 78 despite 26 disposals (and a 55 with 19 possessions). However, as I said before, you can't rule out the possibility that it could pay off big time (with you keeping a high averaging Fiora for the majority/whole season) and if it doesn't, at least you'll get that gun centre quicker.

Foley may make the similar cash in the long run but how long will that take? On the virtue of their performance after 2 rounds, it's a safe bet that it'll take Foley longer. This might happen after 8 rounds or 12 rounds or it might not happen at all. You could have that 300k+ centre by round 5 or 6 if you do the Fiora trade and he doesn't perform. I'd know I'd rather have the gun centre in rd 5/6 than rd 12/potentially not at all.

Is it worth a trade to get Fiora (and possibly another on a gun centre if Fiora doesn't perform)? That's up to you really and exactly how much you value your trades. Those that have made that trade obviously believe it's worth it.

 

[daniea01]

You can't, just like you can't rule out Fiora averaging 90+ for season and Foley averaging 70. Based on the first two games, that could very well happen, especially when you take into account Foley still receiving limited game time and only managed a 78 despite 26 disposals (and a 55 with 19 possessions). However, as I said before, you can't rule out the possibility that it could pay off big time (with you keeping a high averaging Fiora for the majority/whole season) and if it doesn't, at least you'll get that gun centre quicker.

Foley may make the similar cash in the long run but how long will that take? On the virtue of their performance after 2 rounds, it's a safe bet that it'll take Foley longer. This might happen after 8 rounds or 12 rounds or it might not happen at all. You could have that 300k+ centre by round 5 or 6 if you do the Fiora trade and he doesn't perform. I'd know I'd rather have the gun centre in rd 5/6 than rd 12/potentially not at all.

Is it worth a trade to get Fiora (and possibly another on a gun centre if Fiora doesn't perform)? That's up to you really and exactly how much you value your trades. Those that have made that trade obviously believe it's worth it.

I can see where your coming from. But i just want to pose one more question.

Remember you are only able to make 2 trades per round. Most have at least 10 players that you would like to potentially upgrade once your cash cows have been milked. Does it matter whether u upgrade a certain position before others? Im sure u have other players that will peak earlier than foley. You could use your trades on them to upgrade in the earlier rounds and save yourself the risk and a trade?

 

[SuperCrows]

I can see where your coming from. But i just want to pose one more question.

Remember you are only able to make 2 trades per round. Most have at least 10 players that you would like to potentially upgrade once your cash cows have been milked. Does it matter whether u upgrade a certain position before others? Im sure u have other players that will peak earlier than foley. You could use your trades on them to upgrade in the earlier rounds and save yourself the risk and a trade?

First off, I would have chosen a seriously bad starting team to upgrade 10 players I'd look at upgrading a few, cashing in a few and keeping a few trades for injuries.

Personally, in my team the only ones I'm worried about short-term are Foley and Monfries...so I don't really have a heap of immediate concerns. I have faith in guys like Bowden and Hodge to perform. Even then, I'm definitely keeping Monfries. Foley, I'm not so sure of (I might do Foley for Fiora ).

Not too sure of what the questions are asking but I'll give them a go anyway:
I don't think it matters if you upgrade a certain position before others. However, there is less potential high scorers in the back and forwards than there is in the centres. On using trades on other positions to upgrade instead of centres, how exactly do you save a trade and reduce risk? You don't. The risk is simply with the player in the other position you take the punt on, isn't it You may save the risk in the centres, but the risk now is with the other position. For example, if I do Monfries to Brennan, the same principles apply as to Foley to Fiora....you get a potential high scorer for the whole season or you can trade them on to get a gun earlier...only difference is that one is in the centres and one is in the forwards.

 

[DIG]

daniea01 how much cash do you have left over in SC?

 

[Ray Ball]

So if i posed the question.....

Should i trade hodge for gibbs
or
Hall for N.Ablett

Would any of those be good trades at this point in time? Taking into consideration the price hike the gibbs and ablett will take plus the price drop hall and hodge will take? I want to make the trade to keep money (200k+) in my bank to upgrade middle teir players later on.

 

[Drummond]

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

Great post, agree 100%, and I have 16 of your players too.

 

[daniea01]

Great post, agree 100%, and I have 16 of your players too.

Ta, my whisper in Foley's ear really paid off tonight, im pretty sure he agrees with me aswell!

 

[daniea01]

daniea01 how much cash do you have left over in SC?

I have about $30000 left over in SC and over $200000 in DT. SC is my main focus but will be seriously considering straight upgrading to underpriced DT guns sooner in DT (because of large slush fund).

 

[daniea01]

....
Not too sure of what the questions are asking but I'll give them a go anyway:
I don't think it matters if you upgrade a certain position before others. However, there is less potential high scorers in the back and forwards than there is in the centres. On using trades on other positions to upgrade instead of centres, how exactly do you save a trade and reduce risk? You don't. The risk is simply with the player in the other position you take the punt on, isn't it You may save the risk in the centres, but the risk now is with the other position. For example, if I do Monfries to Brennan, the same principles apply as to Foley to Fiora....you get a potential high scorer for the whole season or you can trade them on to get a gun earlier...only difference is that one is in the centres and one is in the forwards.

Not too sure if you understand the point im trying to make. Basically im saying why waste a trade now on an overperforming player when the player traded quite likely has the potential to score just as well in the long run. Even if he only make half as much money, you still have a trade in the bank to invest elsewhere.

I can understand the mentality in wanting to take a risk to make money, but the point im raising is that this logic is flawed when based on a two game average.

 

[dmc333]

Offloaded Bowden for McGuane, then put Boyle on the ground last week. Set it up to use the coin for Reiwoldt.
I gave Hall the arse (not convinced about the knee) for Lucas, looking alright today.
Only have one trade left to make. Which is Robbo for Tredrea.
After that I'm sitting on the kids for a while.

 

[SuperCrows]

Not too sure if you understand the point im trying to make. Basically im saying why waste a trade now on an overperforming player when the player traded quite likely has the potential to score just as well in the long run. Even if he only make half as much money, you still have a trade in the bank to invest elsewhere.

I can understand the mentality in wanting to take a risk to make money, but the point im raising is that this logic is flawed when based on a two game average.

Ah I get the point you're trying to make. If you're talking about players of a similar ilk then I totally agree (eg trading Hodge for in-form Kerr). I wouldn't do it ever. But if you take a gamble for Foley to Fiora, it could pay off bigtime (obviously after this week it doesn't seem the case but the potential was/is there). The logic isn't flawed as even if Fiora is scoring like a dud, in the short run you can then trade him off for a gun player by about rd 5/6 instead of trading off that player that you kept for the long run in rd 12. Hence, for that one trade extra, you could potentially score a lot more between rd 6-12 than you could before. Basically, you get to ideal team situation quicker and reap the benefits of their hopefully higher scores for an extra 6 rounds. But yes, I understand your stance and it's probably for the best if you're conservative.

 

[sir_katana]

I like Daniea01's trading philosophy. Congrat's on a great team.

Last yr I used up 2 trades every week until I had about 4 left. I was siting in top ten at that stage. Then injuries hit and I ran out of trades finishing outside top 100 by the end of the year. Although my players were averaging very high I could not field a fit team of 22.

The lessons I learnt for this year is to do research so you pick a bench that can stand up to cover short term injuries to save on trades.

Also, avoid using two trades to upgrade a mid player to a star eg cashing in on a 90k rookie that has risen to 250k by downgrading to a new 90k player and using the money to upgrade a 300k player to a 460k star. Assuming you leave at least 10 trades to cover long term injuries you can only potentially upgrade 5 players

I think it would be better to downgrade a 500k player midseason into a 90k star (eg Roe last yr) and use the 400k to upgrade two 300 players into 500k stars or even 3 300k players to 430k players.

Having said that, I think the most valuable time to tradeup your players is in the first 2 rounds - here you can potentially upgrade 4 players with 4 trades. Before round 1 you are basing your selections on previous form, NAB cup form, changes in team makeup. It is very hard to get all 30 selections right. And to win this comp you have to take some risks to get the new bolters for the year.
Rnd 1 and 2 are for fixing up some of those selections before prices change. I would rather pick up Kerr now than midseason when his price jumps up 200k.

Admittedly sometimes this doesn't work as 2 of my fix ups were Brennan and N Ablett who both were shockers this week. But in the long term I think they will be better than R Murphy and A Cockshell who I had initially.