Inter Dominion 2010:1st round heats

[sethlad]

Fields & markets up for Friday nights heats at Harold Park: ($10 and under)

Heat 1: Changeover $1.9, Karloo $3.5, Mr Feelgood $5, I Am Sam $9

Heat 2: Blackie $1.35, O A Armbro $5.5, Smoken Up $6.5, Sammy $10

Heat 3:Monkey $1.5, C Kid $4, Tanabi,Cant Bluff Me $9

Heat 4: Bondy $1.6, Washakie $4.5, Baileys $6, Karlsruhe $9

Early thoughts are that they must think its a stand start to have Bondy $1.6 in the heat with clearly the most depth.
Baileys Dream is A grade & despite probably needing the run,looks a big price.
Both Washakie & Karlsruhe were massive at their last runs.
Leave me out at $1.60

seth

 

[Geeves Train]

Here's what a posted in the Vic Harness thread, obviously belongs here

In saying this I reckon its going to be a cracker series with probably five or six horses that have a genuine chance.

Heres how I see the heats:

Heat 1
Thinking that I Am Sam will hold the front and Karloo Mick will sit outside the leader. Not sure where Changeover ends up as there is a bit of speed on the front row but it looks like he will be the favourite and I reckon he will look a winner at some stage. Can't see Mr Feelgood winning from the back around Harold Park but I think he is the only other horse capable of winning. Going with Karloo Mick here to keep up on his 2009 Inter form from the gun gate. Think Changeover will push him all the way if not beat him and Mr Feelgood will edge I Am Sam out of the placings. Give Atomic Ark and Be Good Johnny rough place hopes.

Heat 2
Appears Smoken Up has drawn the worst possible barrier in 8 and behind a $151 shot. This pretty much puts the race to the mercy of Blacks A Fake with only Pembrook Benny and Our Awesome Armbro value chances. Hard to know what will lead but I think BAF will either sit outside or go to the lead and he will be tough to beat from here around Harold Park. Expect the NZders to fill a place but they seem a bit hit and miss and expect one to finish at the tail just not sure which one. Think Smoken Up is good enough to run a place but Lance probably rates him a winning chance and this may be his problem. Sammy Maquire and Magic Operative seem the only other place chances but their draw requires them to bring their A game.

Heat 3
Can't believe Monkey King shortened from $5 into $4 after barrier draws were released. Expecting him to be even money in this heat and looking for value to beat him. Although you can't knock his form over his past 4 runs he remains a one trick pony and whilslt it is a good trick (especially around Menangle) it definately isnt suited around Harold Park. Expect Tanabi Bromac to lead but I reckon there will be plenty charging to the first turn. Thinking Monkey King will end up at the back and give him a place chance but can't see him winning. If you forgot his last start Tanabi Bromac looks the form horse and think he will be hard to run down here. Cincinatti Kid looks the main threat but he also can't win after doing work. A good roughie here to place looks to be Boris Badenov, flying home in his last few starts and just needs a run to crack a big race, drawing 10 however means he probably can't win.

Heat 4
This looks the weakest heat and expect it to go the way of Bondy or Washakie. Bondy is a bit of an unknown for me but did a great job in the Hunter and looks to be down in class. I rate Washakie as a major value hope if he can find the front as he races best when on the speed (as seen in the Truer and WA Pacing, beating Karloo Mick and holding out Imthemightyquinn who was the run of the race in the Hunter). Outside these two Baileys Dream is a chance and Karlsrue might be value. Would also give Notaswethort a chance especially as it looks like he will get the one one which is a great place to be and the form of his last few races looks promising.

Overall
Expect that after these heats the Aussies (Karloo Mick, Blacks A Fake, Tanabi Bromac and Washakie) will shorten whilst Monkey King, Mr Feelgood and others may drift.

Still think Monkey King is deserved favourite (especially with final at Menangle) however I think he will be under pressure at Newcastle along with Smoken Up. Really like the four Aussies I mentioned above and give Changeover a big chance and Boris Badenov gets my series roughie pick.

Would love to hear how others think this Friday night and the series will go down.

 

[Geeves Train]

Fields & markets up for Friday nights heats at Harold Park: ($10 and under)

Heat 1: Changeover $1.9, Karloo $3.5, Mr Feelgood $5, I Am Sam $9

Heat 2: Blackie $1.35, O A Armbro $5.5, Smoken Up $6.5, Sammy $10

Heat 3:Monkey $1.5, C Kid $4, Tanabi,Cant Bluff Me $9

Heat 4: Bondy $1.6, Washakie $4.5, Baileys $6, Karlsruhe $9

Early thoughts are that they must think its a stand start to have Bondy $1.6 in the heat with clearly the most depth.
Baileys Dream is A grade & despite probably needing the run,looks a big price.
Both Washakie & Karlsruhe were massive at their last runs.
Leave me out at $1.60

seth

Absolutely agreed on Bondy, 1.6 is way too short. I also think Monkey King at $1.5 is ridiculous, saw in the paper that his trainer said he isnt a one trick horse and will show speed from the barrier but I think this works against him.

 

[sethlad]

Heat 4
This looks the weakest heat and expect it to go the way of Bondy or Washakie.

This is where we disagree,I genuinely think theres 3 winning hopes,maybe 4.
Heats 2 & 3 look 1 horse races for mine after the draw & Heat 1 looks like Karloo or Changeover.

This would all be different if they didnt feel the need to use HP but draw is everything there & IMO its made the ID almost a 1 heat & final series.

seth

 

[Geeves Train]

This is where we disagree,I genuinely think theres 3 winning hopes,maybe 4.
Heats 2 & 3 look 1 horse races for mine after the draw & Heat 1 looks like Karloo or Changeover.

This would all be different if they didnt feel the need to use HP but draw is everything there & IMO its made the ID almost a 1 heat & final series.

seth

If you had to pick a heat to put an imaginery inter horse in who would you prefer to race against??

Changeover, Karloo Mick, Mr Feelgood and I Am Sam
Blacks A Fake, Our Awesome Armbro and Smoken Up
Monkey King, Cincinatti Kid and Tanabi Bromac
Bondy Washakie and Baileys Dream

I reckon it would be heat 4 for mine

 

[sethlad]

If you had to pick a heat to put an imaginery inter horse in who would you prefer to race against??
Changeover, Karloo Mick, Mr Feelgood and I Am Sam
Blacks A Fake, Our Awesome Armbro and Smoken Up
Monkey King, Cincinatti Kid and Tanabi Bromac
Bondy Washakie and Baileys Dream
I reckon it would be heat 4 for mine

Depends on the draw (& the horse) but Id be happy to run well & pick up the points for 2nd in heat 2 or 3.
They'll let Blacky amble to the front in heat 2 & SU will drop out & come around them otherwise he finishes 6th on the pegs....2nd is a possibility.

Heat 3 has Cin Kid as 2nd fave who scares no-one & Tanabi 3rd pick from 6.
Again 2nd is up for grabs IMO & points is what it's all about.

You could run very well in heat 4 & run 5th

seth

 

[Geeves Train]

Depends on the draw (& the horse) but Id be happy to run well & pick up the points for 2nd in heat 2 or 3.
They'll let Blacky amble to the front in heat 2 & SU will drop out & come around them otherwise he finishes 6th on the pegs....2nd is a possibility.

Heat 3 has Cin Kid as 2nd fave who scares no-one & Tanabi 3rd pick from 6.
Again 2nd is up for grabs IMO & points is what it's all about.

You could run very well in heat 4 & run 5th

seth

Fair points, I should rephrase then to say the 4th heat looks the easiest to win but potentially the hardest to get big points in. I reckon if there is a lay of the day its gotta be Monkey King at 1.50

 

[The Kernel]

I don't like the $1.35 for Blackie considering he didn't seem to show much of a liking for Harold Park last time he raced there. I'd like OAA if I could trust it to start safely. Washakie looks great value in the 4th heat also. $13 for it to win the final looks nice too.

 

[the good maggot]

Heat 1: Is the early leader I Am Sam or the former stablemate Atomic Ark? I believe Sammy has more gate speed than many give him credit for and if he can boot through and lead he'll give a massive show at the big odds. I don't think he is going as badly as his form indicates and he was able to boot through and lead from barrier 1 in the first round of ID09. Has proven as a younger horse he handles the tight bends at HP (which is suprising given how big he is).

Heat 2: Despite The Kernal's comment that Blackie doesn't handle the track, I would argue otherwise. He has had 3 starts there for a blinder in a Miracle Mile before being injured his next two runs there (so forget them). Blacky should work straight to the front and that'll be the end of it. Lance will drive for 2nd by going around to the death. Awesome Armbro is like a box of chocolates, you never really know what you're gonna get, but even on his best form I doubt he could beat Blacky even if the king had to sit outside him.

Heat 3: Rule No.1: The really top horses have gate speed. A horse as good as Monkey King is good enough to be driven upside down and win this. He has speed from the gate (they just rarely use it) and should lead all the way. The $1.50 is great odds. In my market I had him at $1.35. Ricky May wont risk relying on luck and driving the horse cold in what is a moderate field. The Monkey camp would rather drive the horse upside down to get high points to take any pressure off next week at Newcastle.

Heat 4: Bondy's gatespeed is a big unknown. Bailey's ability to handle the tight track is unknown. Too many question marks here. As Seth said - you've got rocks in your head if you take the $1.60 when you can get money for jam at nearly the same odds on Blacky and the Monkey. One thing we do know is Karlsruhe flies out and Washakie is flying (from horse of Australia at the moment). Tough race with many question marks.

 

[Childish Gambino]

Will be an interesting series. I'm going to be at Harold Park on Friday night so hopefully we get some good racing.

Heat 3 for mine is clearly the weakest heat. Monkey King wins and wins easily.

Does anyone know what happened to Tanabi Bromac in the Hunter Cup? Was there something wrong? Did he not get the trip? Or was it just a really bad run?

He was in top form before that race and although I don't think he can beat Monkey King he is one to look out for this carnival.

It's nice to see a bit of genuine interest of harness racing on these forums.

 

[carltonblue]

Here are my markets – framed at very close to 100%. I have a rule that winning hopes generally need to be under about $8/$10 and in the top 3 or 4, while place hopes generally need to be under about $16/$20 and in the top 4 or 5. I haven’t looked at the markets prior to making these odds – I find it makes me stick truer to what I believe and not be swayed by public opinion.
Heat 1
I Am Sam $6
Ohoka Utah $26
Karloo Mick $4.20
Atomic Ark $15
Baltic Ice $41
Changeover $7
Panaroma Swing $81
Be Good Johnny $18
Tee Pee Village $41
Mr Feelgood $5
Well after looking at Betfair, I really need to get on I Am Sam here. $12 they have him at. Atomic Ark is the only other runner that represents value at $26, I will give him a small go the place on raceday. Mr Feelgood is also quoted at $5, so will have a little nibble at that. The moral of this story, however, is that I am laying Changeover in this race. Your not even doubling your money with the bookies yet I am giving it away at $7. I honestly don’t think he deserves to be favourite.
Heat 2
Game Safin $61
Awesome Armbro $14
The Gunstar $20
Blacks A Fake $3.20
Pembrook Benny $7
Magic Operative $20
Sammy Maguire $8
Smoken Up $4.50
Genuwine $51
Cullens Legacy $51
I have Blacks A Fake offering way more value than the tote - but am in no way whatsoever inclined to lay him. Small value with Smoken Up $6.60, Pembrook Benny $11TAB, and Sammy Maguire offers $12for those brave to risk him from the draw. Awesome Armbro is the one I am very prepared to lay in this – not for the place, just for the win.
Heat 3
Few Good Men $46
Hava Bonvoyage $46
Cant Bluff Me $46
Monkey King $1.80
Cincinnati Kid $8
Tanabi Bromac $6
Our Malabar $28
Lonestar Legend $23
Our Brahman Boy $91
Boris Badenov $28
Moral = Monkey King is a shoe in
Willing to lay Cincinatti Kid other markets have him a lot shorter. Tanabi Bromac is the only possible bet in this I have him a little bit shorter than most markets. Cant Bluff Me is a very good lay in this.
Heat 4
Pacific Charm $51
Bondy $2.40
Karlsruhe $26
Baileys Dream $6.50
Western Cam $11
Virage $71
Washakie $8.50
Fox Valley Appeal $61
Notaswethort $8.50
Prince Benji $61
Bondy should win. Other markets have Washakie for me at $4.50 yet Im not prepared to lay him. Pacific Charm and Karlsruhe are good lays, both are way too short with other markets. Notaswethort is terrific value and will get my EW money come race time, and Western Cam is also over the odds with other markets.
Summary
· I Am Sam is good win value – get on.
· Changeover is severely over rated
· Blackie should win but is too short.
· Geoff Smalls runner, Awesome Armbro is a good lay.
· Monkey King will shit in, but Tanabi Bromac represents EW value.
· Cant Bluff Me and Cincinatti Kid are just asking to be layed. (oops bad terminology)
· Notaswethort is an awesome value EW bet.
· Once again two horses are just asking to be layed – Pacific Charm and Karlsruhe.

 

[carltonblue]

Oh – and lets say I am the owner of the first emergency. I would much rather get a run in heat 3. That would be closely followed by heat 2. 4 and 1 are definitely the harder heats.
​

 

[Geeves Train]

The moral of this story, however, is that I am laying Changeover in this race. Your not even doubling your money with the bookies yet I am giving it away at $7. I honestly don’t think he deserves to be favourite.

Thing about Changeover is that he either turns up and races like a million bucks or races rubbish, only problem is it is hard to tell which one your going to get (although consultation with Geoff Small would probably determine his chances). I think if he's 1.90 in the markets it is safe to assume we are going to see him at his best.

Also interested in the amount of support Monkey King is getting, I think he is a chance but rate him at about $2.5-$3. If he is good enough to take $1.50 around Harold Park you might as well load up on the $4 offered for him to win the final cause he is gunna do it a million times easier at Menangle.

 

[the good maggot]

Here are my markets – framed at very close to 100%. I have a rule that winning hopes generally need to be under about $8/$10 and in the top 3 or 4, while place hopes generally need to be under about $16/$20 and in the top 4 or 5. I haven’t looked at the markets prior to making these odds – I find it makes me stick truer to what I believe and not be swayed by public opinion.
Heat 1
I Am Sam $6
Ohoka Utah $26
Karloo Mick $4.20
Atomic Ark $15
Baltic Ice $41
Changeover $7
Panaroma Swing $81
Be Good Johnny $18
Tee Pee Village $41
Mr Feelgood $5
Well after looking at Betfair, I really need to get on I Am Sam here. $12 they have him at. Atomic Ark is the only other runner that represents value at $26, I will give him a small go the place on raceday. Mr Feelgood is also quoted at $5, so will have a little nibble at that. The moral of this story, however, is that I am laying Changeover in this race. Your not even doubling your money with the bookies yet I am giving it away at $7. I honestly don’t think he deserves to be favourite.
Heat 2
Game Safin $61
Awesome Armbro $14
The Gunstar $20
Blacks A Fake $3.20
Pembrook Benny $7
Magic Operative $20
Sammy Maguire $8
Smoken Up $4.50
Genuwine $51
Cullens Legacy $51
I have Blacks A Fake offering way more value than the tote - but am in no way whatsoever inclined to lay him. Small value with Smoken Up $6.60, Pembrook Benny $11TAB, and Sammy Maguire offers $12for those brave to risk him from the draw. Awesome Armbro is the one I am very prepared to lay in this – not for the place, just for the win.
Heat 3
Few Good Men $46
Hava Bonvoyage $46
Cant Bluff Me $46
Monkey King $1.80
Cincinnati Kid $8
Tanabi Bromac $6
Our Malabar $28
Lonestar Legend $23
Our Brahman Boy $91
Boris Badenov $28
Moral = Monkey King is a shoe in
Willing to lay Cincinatti Kid other markets have him a lot shorter. Tanabi Bromac is the only possible bet in this I have him a little bit shorter than most markets. Cant Bluff Me is a very good lay in this.
Heat 4
Pacific Charm $51
Bondy $2.40
Karlsruhe $26
Baileys Dream $6.50
Western Cam $11
Virage $71
Washakie $8.50
Fox Valley Appeal $61
Notaswethort $8.50
Prince Benji $61
Bondy should win. Other markets have Washakie for me at $4.50 yet Im not prepared to lay him. Pacific Charm and Karlsruhe are good lays, both are way too short with other markets. Notaswethort is terrific value and will get my EW money come race time, and Western Cam is also over the odds with other markets.
Summary
· I Am Sam is good win value – get on.
· Changeover is severely over rated
· Blackie should win but is too short.
· Geoff Smalls runner, Awesome Armbro is a good lay.
· Monkey King will shit in, but Tanabi Bromac represents EW value.
· Cant Bluff Me and Cincinatti Kid are just asking to be layed. (oops bad terminology)
· Notaswethort is an awesome value EW bet.
· Once again two horses are just asking to be layed – Pacific Charm and Karlsruhe.

You've rated Blacky a $3.20 chance? What planet are you from?

 

[OutsideEdge]

Also interested in the amount of support Monkey King is getting, I think he is a chance but rate him at about $2.5-$3. If he is good enough to take $1.50 around Harold Park you might as well load up on the $4 offered for him to win the final cause he is gunna do it a million times easier at Menangle.[/quote]


$1.50 is good enough odds because that is a crap heat, nothing to do with it being a tight track. I agree with whoever said earlier that he has enough speed to get to the front eventually and that will be the end of the race. That said, if he wins this heat then draws a nice alley in the final, $4 is great odds!

 

[carltonblue]

Heat 1
The boilover with Natalie Rasmussens 3rd stinger winning, Atomic Ark. Sat leaders back on Changeover, who I thought was going to make me eat my words big time. From the favoured four, Changeover, Karloo Mick, Mr Feelgood and I Am Sam reverse any of the runs and they finish in the same order imo. Gee I hate my value place bet winning . Still a good race for me. Going by those runs, no horse in that heat can win the final.
I dont think this win will bring Blacky in any more, but it will be interesting to see if Western Cam comes in a bit.

 

[carltonblue]

Heat2
Well Blacky did it on his ear as expected, even if some doosh rated him $3.20. Awesome Armbro did what any possible finalist would have done, sat on his back and ran 2nd. Smoken Up went good and Sammy Maguire and Pembrook Benny did all they could - think they got held up for runs.
It was realy a nothing heat, hasnt told us anything about anyone that we didnt already know, just confirmed what we all already knew.

 

[carltonblue]

Firstly - congratulation to Monkey King, he did what he had to do and proved he is head and shoulders above those. What is the faster quarter at Harold Park? They dont have Chrstian Cullens on the harness website (which I thought would be the best challenger) but 26.7 is amazing.
Secondly - why oh why is there 2rounds of heats with 40horses instead of 3 rounds of heats with 30horses. Tanabi Bromac only just got third - he is about five seconds better than Hava Bonvoyage and Few Good Men put together. What a joke that would have been. Best of luck to the connections of those two horses, but I certaintly wont be complaining to see them draw the outside of the front row next week.
And I hate to say it, but I told you all Cincinatti Kid was a lay.

 

[carltonblue]

How good was Baileys Dream - honestly thought he would drop off!
Bondy done what he had to do. Washakie a tad bit disapointing to me. Western Cam couldnt get out, need to watch replay to see what he may have done had he got out.
Was too busy watching the top3, but Notaswethort disapointed me a bit need to watch replay though.

 

[biglaycock]

How good was Baileys Dream - honestly thought he would drop off!
Bondy done what he had to do. Washakie a tad bit disapointing to me. Western Cam couldnt get out, need to watch replay to see what he may have done had he got out.
Was too busy watching the top3, but Notaswethort disapointed me a bit need to watch replay though.

Yeah i agree, Baileys Dream run was huge. On a side note what a great run by the mare Pacific Charm, Having an association with the Miles' it's great to see them have a runner as the time and effort D Miles puts in to the training and prep of his horses is amazing