Interesting article

[swansfan]

Intersting article in the australian financial review by Ted Hopkins on the swans today. Worth getting a copy. It uses a computer modelling program of Stephen Clarke, a professor at Swinburne University's school of mathematics.

His prediction program calculates the Swans will finish a high fifth with their real odds for doing much better this season are quite high. Clarke's computer anticipates random variation will swing their way and credits the Swans with extra wins that will lift them into the finals.

I hope so!!!!

 

[Donners]

An extract from the article, if anyone's interested:

Strategists who exploit the random variation effects that show up in computer modelling of various games may have more luck in achieving wins on the field.

The Melbourne AFL media experts have ganged up on the Sydney Swans. The majority of esteemed scribes from the temple of Australian rules have predicted that the Harbour City team will finish the 2003 season with the wooden spoon. If the Swans start winning early games it will be amazing how received wisdom in one place is soon forgotten.

Among the handful of stout defenders of Sydney's chances this season is the computer modelling program of Stephen Clarke, a professor at Swinburne University's school of mathematics.

His prediction program calculates the Swans will finish a high fifth, and the underlying logic is a further example, as we shall see, of why computers are sometimes ahead of the game in many respects.

Sydney's bad omen finish at 11th on the ladder last season may not look encouraging, but their real odds for doing much better this season are quite high.

Last season they were on the verge of the lowest ladder finish in VFL-AFL history for a team with a percentage above 100 points. They featured in one draw and 12 games where the final result was less than three goals. They won only four of these close contests and lost eight.

A team with a season average of more than 100 percentage points usually has a better than even chance of winning a majority of its games and, in particular, a spread of close games.

Luck was unusually unkind to the Swans.

Clarke's computer anticipates random variation will swing their way and credits the Swans with extra wins that will lift them into the finals.

Sydney's Paul Roos is approaching his first full season as coach after a temporary appointment for 10 games last season. With a little help from cyberspace, he can start in the knowledge that experts and opponents may underestimate the true worth of the Swans, and that's an advantage that a coach can exploit.