Jack Watts

[Mead]

The NBA are currently having this problem with Ben Simmons. Everyone has said for so long he should be number 1 that those clubs who overlook him will be bashed by their own fans because they trade in hope. For the record as the season has worn on I rate Buddy Heild higher than Simmons. But apparently Simmons has it all , except aggression

This is a very valid example.

Most years the groupthink amongst recruiters and sports media identifies one player as the obvious pick 1.

That player may well turn out to be a superstar, a quality player or a total flop or anything in between, but a team under pressure will usually follow the groupthink in the absence of a very good reason not to, because even if the #1 pick turns out be a dud, everyone will still agree they made the obvious call at the time. The fans may hate the player for not living up to his hype, but the club is shielded from the worst of the venom.

Imagine you're a recruiter at a team at rock bottom, the club is screaming out for a franchise player to keep the fans happy, you have pick one, and having done your due diligence you honestly prefer someone who most other recruiters don't even have in their top 10.

It would be a very brave club indeed who selects that dark horse with pick 1, because if they don't come off their fans will go absolutely mental at the club for wasting the pick instead of selecting the obvious blue chip prospect. In fact the only time I can think of that a club in any code has gone for a total dark horse at pick 1 was Kwame Brown, and look how that worked out.

I do think a useful rule of thumb for a recruiter in that situation would be to look at the top 4 or 5 players which the groupthink agree are the best prospects that year and then draft whichever of them seems to have the most killer instinct/best attitude to football.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

I agree regarding the comments that the pressure being the Number 1 Pick can bring. I also agree that clubs should be looking to see if this is an issue then manage it better.

Unfortunately clubs , all over the world, are sucked into this hype of who should be number 1 rather than any reality at times. Though Weitering looks ok

The NBA are currently having this problem with Ben Simmons. Everyone has said for so long he should be number 1 that those clubs who overlook him will be bashed by their own fans because they trade in hope. For the record as the season has worn on I rate Buddy Heild higher than Simmons. But apparently Simmons has it all , except aggression

Hield is three years older than Simmons and is undersized for a shooting guard at NBA level, he won't find it anywhere near as easy to score in the pros and those are the reasons why he won't even come close to being the number one pick. Could still make a very handy player though.

There is so much that goes into recruiting it is crazy. Which also makes it very exciting.

One of the biggest things a recruit needs is confidence. When Watts went number one, one of the knocks on him was he never seemed to have a dominating presence. That can be attributed to confidence. He was/is an unbelievable athlete though (196cm who ran a 2.82 second 20m time? Unheard of), his kicking was elite, smart football brain and seemed to have the body of a key forward with the ability to work in traffic like a midfielder. There was no way he wasn't going in the top two picks.

He was also the youngest player in the entire draft. So to be the youngest player in the AFL, the number one draft pick in a superdraft and to be thrown to the wolves on the biggest day of the Melbourne Football Club regular season? Wow.

But hell, with how skinny he was coming in, he was always going to take a few years. He's gone through what, four coaches? And played in almost every position of the ground? His development has definitely gone the opposite of smoothly. And that's not absolving him from blame. He needed to take responsibility, man up and work harder a long time ago.

But anyone who didn't just want to jump on the "Jack Watts poll option" bandwagon and blindly bag him could see he had oodles of talent and it was all a question of whether he could get his confidence, workrate and aggression up to AFL standard. It seems he may have finally turned the corner. I've no doubt he'll still have games where you'll just shake your head and go what the hell are you doing, but the game should be better for it by having a Jack Watts with self-belief playing a high half forward role. Because he's a unique player who can provide some excellent footy to watch.

 

[jack son 5]

He'll never be worthy of number 1 pick and is very lucky to still be on an AFL list.

But so far this season he has been very impressive. Would have been a solid pick in the mid 30's.

Would walk into Adelaide's Best 22 any week of the H&A season.

 

[Blue1980]

This is a very valid example.

Most years the groupthink amongst recruiters and sports media identifies one player as the obvious pick 1.

That player may well turn out to be a superstar, a quality player or a total flop or anything in between, but a team under pressure will usually follow the groupthink in the absence of a very good reason not to, because even if the #1 pick turns out be a dud, everyone will still agree they made the obvious call at the time. The fans may hate the player for not living up to his hype, but the club is shielded from the worst of the venom.

Imagine you're a recruiter at a team at rock bottom, the club is screaming out for a franchise player to keep the fans happy, you have pick one, and having done your due diligence you honestly prefer someone who most other recruiters don't even have in their top 10.

It would be a very brave club indeed who selects that dark horse with pick 1, because if they don't come off their fans will go absolutely mental at the club for wasting the pick instead of selecting the obvious blue chip prospect. In fact the only time I can think of that a club in any code has gone for a total dark horse at pick 1 was Kwame Brown, and look how that worked out.

I do think a useful rule of thumb for a recruiter in that situation would be to look at the top 4 or 5 players which the groupthink agree are the best prospects that year and then draft whichever of them seems to have the most killer instinct/best attitude to football.

The killer/right attitude seems to apply to Weitering.

 

[Toump Ass]

Been very impressed with watts all preseason. Looks a changed player.

Good post, great avatar.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Imagine you're a recruiter at a team at rock bottom, the club is screaming out for a franchise player to keep the fans happy, you have pick one, and having done your due diligence you honestly prefer someone who most other recruiters don't even have in their top 10.

It would be a very brave club indeed who selects that dark horse with pick 1, because if they don't come off their fans will go absolutely mental at the club for wasting the pick instead of selecting the obvious blue chip prospect. In fact the only time I can think of that a club in any code has gone for a total dark horse at pick 1 was Kwame Brown, and look how that worked out.

Kwame wasn't the biggest dark horse, but was seen as a huge risk due to coming straight from high school. He actually had a decent NBA career all up, but not who you want to spend pick 1 on.

Anthony Bennett however, no one saw him being picked first. And that was a disaster all round.

The thing is, if you prefer someone who other recruiters don't have in their top 10 - you might as well trade the first pick down and get say, pick 6 and 10. That way you can pick up your player at Pick 6 still, and you also get the bonus pick 10 (obviously it doesn't just work out that way, but something around that value or pick + player etc.)

Because even if they do end up the best player in the class, you've still "overpaid" for them if you were able to get them at a lower pick.

 

[Julius Seizure]

He won't ever justify being picked number one, but I think he would work well like the Adelaide version of Tom lynch, a high positioned third forward who kicks 30-40 goals and provides the link up target.

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

I'd love to see him succeed and become a good, if not reliably solid player. He seems like a good kid and some of the hatred for him being the whipping boy is a bit excessive at times; won't ever live up to being a no.1 pick but he's the type of guy i want to see succeed. Always had a soft-spot for the battler

 

[Scotland]

Imagine you're a recruiter at a team at rock bottom, the club is screaming out for a franchise player to keep the fans happy, you have pick one, and having done your due diligence you honestly prefer someone who most other recruiters don't even have in their top 10.

Would this really happen in the AFL?

I get the groupthink among fans and the media but I'd like to think the clubs do their research. Save for the odd Nick Riewoldt, the #1 pick is going to come from the TAC Cup, WAFL or SANFL - and 99 times out of 100 from the Vic Country/Metro, SA or WA U/18s team. I'd be surprised if any club had say Daniel Rioli (pick 15 last year) as their #1.

I also think that consensus over the #1 pick is irrelevant depending on who it comes from. That consensus will come when the AFL season is well and truly under way and teams are entrenched in the top 8. Who WC and Hawthorn thought they'd pick at #1 in the draft last year doesn't mean much because they ended up with picks 17 and 18 before all the academy faffing. Sure we would've pencilled in who we thought would be gone by our pick (which we traded anyway) but it's not like our opinion on the #1 means much to the team that has it.

Watts wasn't a consensus #1 pick a year out from the draft or anything. I remember as the draft approached people talking up Hurley, Rich, Naitanui. It was late in the piece that he became Melbourne's target. AFL is very geographical, too. WC were tossing up between NicNat and Rich, in case Melbourne took one ahead of us, Essendon and Port I can't recall but I think they had Watts ahead of Hurley and Hartlett. Somewhere like the NBA where kids have already done a few years of college away from home by the time they are drafted homesickness etc. isn't a factor.

 

[GreyCrow]

That's why you will always hear the '' best talent ' or '' pick for need'' arguments. I can see your approach and I would accept it happens mostly. But my recall of the time was Vic clubs/supporters were all worrying about NicNats go home factor. Same as Rich. ( I am surprised Rich hasn't left so kudos to him) But once Melbourne were confirmed as Number 1 Watts seemed to be their only choice. Hurley was second but fell to 4th? Melbournes focus was always on need+talent and they chose Watts

 

[Toump Ass]

Watts was a leader this weekend. He dragged us back into contention from three goals down, brought Hogan into the game, revved up his team-mates. He was bloody good, and he'll only get better with a half decent team around him. I'm excited to see his year.

 

[Ando727]

Watts wasn't a consensus #1 pick a year out from the draft or anything. I remember as the draft approached people talking up Hurley, Rich, Naitanui. It was late in the piece that he became Melbourne's target.

You remember incorrectly. Melbourne was only ever eyeing off two prospects with their number 1 pick. Jack Watts or Nic Naitanui. Nik Nat was dismissed because of the Perth factor. It was only ever going to go one way. For better or for worse...

 

[Julius Seizure]

He won't ever justify being picked number one, but I think he would work well like the Adelaide version of Tom lynch, a high positioned third forward who kicks 30-40 goals and provides the link up target.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/jac...h/news-story/37a7ec7d96bdaaa008bb8aba22340d49

foxsports stealing my ideas again

 

[LeverPuller]

Don't know how many people listened, but Rohan Connolly brought up a point today that intrigued.

He said that one reason Melbourne blew it's picks in the 07-10 era was because the game changed on them. The Dees were drafting athletes as much as footballers due to their need for endurance. The rise of the interchange ruined this and power became dominant. With the 90 cap, endurance is coming back, and it is showing with the games both Watts and Scully had. Whether it remains is yet to be seen, but it's a very interesting point.

 

[Toump Ass]

The Dees were drafting athletes as much as footballers due to their need for endurance. The rise of the interchange ruined this and power became dominant. With the 90 cap, endurance is coming back, and it is showing with the games both Watts and Scully had. Whether it remains is yet to be seen, but it's a very interesting point.

Paul Roos mentioned this recently. I think he said there are players on Melbourne's list with athletic prowess that are now more valuable that they otherwise were. I can't remember which players he used as an example... maybe Grimes.

Anyway it's nice to see Rohan is paying attention.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Don't know how many people listened, but Rohan Connolly brought up a point today that intrigued.

He said that one reason Melbourne blew it's picks in the 07-10 era was because the game changed on them. The Dees were drafting athletes as much as footballers due to their need for endurance. The rise of the interchange ruined this and power became dominant. With the 90 cap, endurance is coming back, and it is showing with the games both Watts and Scully had. Whether it remains is yet to be seen, but it's a very interesting point.

I think people forget how good Scully was for us.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Don't know how many people listened, but Rohan Connolly brought up a point today that intrigued.

He said that one reason Melbourne blew it's picks in the 07-10 era was because the game changed on them. The Dees were drafting athletes as much as footballers due to their need for endurance. The rise of the interchange ruined this and power became dominant. With the 90 cap, endurance is coming back, and it is showing with the games both Watts and Scully had. Whether it remains is yet to be seen, but it's a very interesting point.

Same thing happened during our earlier rebuild, we went for bullocking/power mids over athletes (Sylvia/McLean) to replicate the Lions game style and the game changed on us.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

I think people forget how good Scully was for us.

I just watched the game again, he may have got a lot of disposals on the weekend but he continually turned it over with really bad kicking. He seems to be one of those rare players whose kicking is getting worse as he gets older.

 

[Sando22]

I think we're about to see what Jacky boy can offer!

 

[teknodeejay]

He's played one good game. Well done to him. Vaseline at the ready it seems every time Watts plays to the level expected.

A month of the same and then commence unzipping of pants Demons fans.

 

[Sando22]

Just played with an attitude I have never seen him play with before.
Not getting ahead, certainly needs to string a few good ones together and has now set the bar for what he can do.
Talent never been the issue, it's all upstairs.
We've waited long enough so hopefully it's all been worth it.

 

[Higgs Boson]

He's played one good game. Well done to him. Vaseline at the ready it seems every time Watts plays to the level expected.

A month of the same and then commence unzipping of pants Demons fans.

While your general point is sound, he actually has played like that for a month now

 

[replicant]

He's played one good game. Well done to him. Vaseline at the ready it seems every time Watts plays to the level expected.

A month of the same and then commence unzipping of pants Demons fans.

Didn't watch their NAB cup games, did you? He was even better in those.

 

[Sando22]

Hope he tears it up this wknd

 

[Essendonia]