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Toast Jenkins

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50/50 when he lines up for a shot at goal, but seems to kill it when he is on the run. Reminds me of somebody that I used to know.....
 
His set shot technique needs tightening up then it will be fine. He's just a bit loose with his hands and his drop. He hasn't got as much to improve on as that other #4
 
King Elvis said:
That's the biggest thing he needs to improve upon, his leading and marking is brilliant - if he can start hitting packs and taking marks, or at least busting the packs and making the ball spill out, then he'll take his game to the upper echelons.
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He is still a pup in terms of footy experience so you hope that he gets there over the next couple of years. I am mot sure he will every be at Tippett level in contested marking and contesting (bringing the ball to the front) but there is potential for him to be "good enough" in that area. I've never seen Tippett let the ball go out the back in an aerial contest and he very very rarely gets outmarked in those contests which is one of the main reasons why Callinan had such a great season last year. He lived at Kurt's feet and suffered when Kurt was out.

Jenkins is a far superior to Kurt on the lead. Jenkins is and will be a very difficult match up. He is a big lump of a lad but he is ally quick off the mark. You can't put a real big defender on him because he will beat them on the lead and if you put someone quicker on him, he will beat them with strength.

If he can improve on his contested marking and pack busting (bring the ball to the ground and don't get outmarked) he will be a nightmare for opponents! One good thing about him is that he seems to be a quick learner.
 

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spexau said:
His set shot technique needs tightening up then it will be fine. He's just a bit loose with his hands and his drop. He hasn't got as much to improve on as that other #4
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On the run he does not lean back when he kicks the footy. He is in natural motion. When he lines up for a set shot, he seems to lean back and spray them. It's interesting though because he didn't do that last year and he was a deadly set shot last year.

It's something that can be easily fixed and as I have said a few times before, the great thing is that he is getting a lot of looks each game. He is averaging something like 5-6 shots at goal since Tex went down with injury. That is a great output for any forward, let alone a novice who hasn't played 25 AFL games yet.
 
He's quick, big and he's strong. A deadly trio for a forward. Love it when he bursts through packs, shrugs a couple and feeds it out to the runners

His handball to Smack yesterday when he was galloping along the wing was pretty bad though! Should've kicked it into our F50 himself, he was in a far better spot, but i'm sure the coaching staff will address that in his review
 
SnookAU said:
essendon had too many of the same already. when jenkins consistently kicks over 50 goals a year and gradually becomes ok at ruck, they will regret losing him but at the time their calculated decision on who to let go was correct even if a few years later it turns out he was there best kpp at that size!
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I know a few essendon types close to the club, who openly admit 2 things: that they'd have preferred to have kept him but couldn't once came knocking; that they didn't think he was very good.

It was not a calculated decision about making one of the talls available, it was about not being able to match or counter because they didn't rate him as highly as Adelaide did.
 
Stiffy_18 said:
But no where near the contested mark. Jenkins has been great though and deserves accolades. Needs to continue working on the rucking and contested marking, oh and stop leaning back when he is kicking for goal from a set shot!
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True. But he is no slouch in the marking department, comes at 1/5th the cost and is only new to the game... Is he a better player than Tippett after 20 games? Possibly...
 
Mattrox said:
Really, a contested mark inside 50 taken by a KPF? :confused:

A free shot at goal is over-rated?


****, he should just let the ball hit the deck for our all of our awesome crumbers to contest the possession.
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What percentage of pack marks are taken? I'd put it as low as 2 %. A free shot at goal is certainly rated, but that wasn't Sanders' point (I'm talking for you here S, so correct if I'm wrong). A player that averages a couple of contested marks a game is not going to be a match winner because he takes those marks.
As you almost point out, crumbing is by far the more important skill.
 
Mattrox said:
Really, a contested mark inside 50 taken by a KPF? :confused:

A free shot at goal is over-rated?


****, he should just let the ball hit the deck for our all of our awesome crumbers to contest the possession.
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A mark taken off a lead inside the 50 is a free shot at goal too, and it's also something that's much more likely to come off than a pack mark. This is an area in which Jenkins is already leaps and bounds ahead of Tippett. IMO, contested marking is a luxury, not a necessity like forwards who know how to get open on the lead are.
 
beartoo said:
What percentage of pack marks are taken? I'd put it as low as 2 %. A free shot at goal is certainly rated, but that wasn't Sanders' point (I'm talking for you here S, so correct if I'm wrong). A player that averages a couple of contested marks a game is not going to be a match winner because he takes those marks.
As you almost point out, crumbing is by far the more important skill.
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I'm saying that contested marks are important. Not all CMs are pack marks, could be a 1 on 1 marking contest. If you get 2CM per game as a forward, chalk up 2 shots at goal. Add that to the UMs and shots from those and it is potentially match winning.

Crumbing is a very important skill. But a good crumber is often hard to find. On top of that the mark has spilled is now a 50-50 prospect on average. If the CM is taken it avoids the 50% chance of no shot at goal.

If a fwd takes 1 extra CM average more than another fwd it means 11 extra free shots at goal. .. at a meagre average conversion rate of 55% that's 6 extra goals per year. Of course if your fwd converts at 60% its more like 7 extra goals per year. That's more than 10% of an average fwd's goals.

If the mark spills and you clean up less than 50% of them you are behind the 8 ball because with the 55% shot on goal rate you are down from 6g out of 11 compared to 3.

Then repeat this for every marking fwd in your team......

Eg Cloke took an average 2.9 CMs per game last year and Jack Riewoldt took 1.8

Jenkins is at 1.6 this year ....... If he can snaffle just one extra per game....

To say that CMs are over-rated is completely under-rating them.
 

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You are correct, CMs are not necessarily PMs. How often in a game x for a season, do you think forwards have the luxury of one out? The shape of our grounds mitigates against this. Headache is correct in saying that the lead is far more important. Sander's has my vote in saying CMs are way overrated.
 
The comparisons with Tippett ended last week against St Kilda when JJ basically bent his knee the wrong way by 120 degrees, then shook it off and went back into battle.

If Tippett gets a slap on the head he beelines for the red vest and a warm cup of cocoa.
 
beartoo said:
You are correct, CMs are not necessarily PMs. How often in a game x for a season, do you think forwards have the luxury of one out? The shape of our grounds mitigates against this. Headache is correct in saying that the lead is far more important. Sander's has my vote in saying CMs are way overrated.
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But Jenkins is reasonable mark on the lead and when he is in space (uncontested). If he can improve on CMs he can take his game to the highest level. That and fixing up his kicking, but he is a long and generally straight kick, so I don't see this as a fundamental flaw that is really difficult to improve.

Clearly the highlights only show the ones he gets, but just illustrating that each situation is not uncommon.
One on One marks




This shows 2 marks from last year..... A 3rd man up..... then 3 on 1 in the GS. Tell me these are "over-rated" marks.


Pack of 3


Pack Mark


Now he seems to be mostly forward contested marks I50 are extremely important.
 

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Mattrox said:
Really, a contested mark inside 50 taken by a KPF? :confused:

A free shot at goal is over-rated?


****, he should just let the ball hit the deck for our all of our awesome crumbers to contest the possession.
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Wow.

something that only the best in the league do maybe twice a week? You think that is sooo important?

You must think buddy is shit
 
Sanders said:
Wow.

something that only the best in the league do maybe twice a week? You think that is sooo important?

You must think buddy is shit
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Your logic is flawed. ..... The thing that is rare is not valuable. .....got any gold or diamonds you want to give away because people don't have lots.... why are they sooooo important?

Goals are like gold, missing a CM is just giving it away.

Any way its closer to 3 a game and currently the leader has 4. Being important isn't about how many times it occurs, it's about the result. If a CM is taken I50 lets say its a goal 50% of the time..... If it spills to a 50-50 contest you have reduced your chance to goal down to 25%. I know which I would rather.


The point being if you can improve your CMs inside 50 by 1 a game that a minimum of 6 extra goals a season. Who doesn't want to kick extra goals? ....... hands up fellas
 
Mattrox said:
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Anyone else for really sorry for the poor bloke he took the hanger on? They're getting pounded to the tune of 20+ goals, the game is nearly over, all he probably wants is to get off the field and forget about the game, when a 100kg man mountain takes a hanger and plants his knee in the back of his skull, splitting his head open. What a shit end to the day.

Good mark though.
 
Short term obviously Tex's injury is a disaster in terms of our chances of challenging for the premiership this year, but I think there are a lot of positives to be taken out of his absence looking at how it may impact our premiership chances over the next 3-4 years as this list hits its peak.

There was a worry that having Walker as our only marquee forward was going to start making us predictable, and that our midfielders would fall into the mindset of always looking for him first when entering our forward 50. I feel this could have resulted in players like Jenkins and Lynch being happy to lurk in the background and not seek to maximize their ability and really impact games in the manner that both are capable of, because they know that Walker would always stand up and impose himself so perhaps they wouldn't have to.

This season they are being thrown in the deep end. Although it isn't an ideal situation to have one of your best players out for a year, by the time Walker returns Lynch and Jenkins will have had a full season as the key players in our forward structure. I've got no doubt that by the start of the 2014 season they will be far better footballers for the experience and will not be content to just be support acts to the Walker Show. Subsequently our forward line will be much more dangerous as our midfield will be more comfortable looking for a range of options inside 50 knowing that there are 2 more targets in there who have proven they can stand up when called upon.

I think both players have grown a tremendous amount already this season, but Jenkins in particular hasn't even come close to reaching his potential. It'll be fascinating watching him over the course of the season, he has all the tools to be a brilliant key forward. He stuttered over the first few weeks but he's growing in confidence and performances every week. In the last 4 games he's kicked 2.4, 4.3, 2.4 and 3.2 and has been a far more imposing presence around the ground in terms of his marking and general physicality.
 
Don't forget McKernan. Whilst he's not hitting the scoreboard he's getting valuable time to develop and has been improving each week. If Tex was still in the team JJ and Lynch would be getting a game still, McKernan not so much.
 

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