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Ladder Predictor 2015

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Biggy_Boy said:
The Eagles don't need to smack the Crows. Just win. Crows were always going to beat Essendon convincingly. The equation hasn't changed since the beginning of the weekend. We have to win 3 of our next 4; Crows have to lose two of their next three. We'll lose to the Hawks, so we have to beat St. Kilda, Collingwood and Adelaide, and we have to hope WCE beats Adelaide. If it comes down to percentage, we won't get in because Adelaide got Essendon and Brisbane late, but that was always going to be the case.
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You will need to repeat this after Hawthorn beat us :D

Yesterday: "We can make the finals" consensus. :rainbow:
"We think that odds are Adelaide thump the Crows. We think that odds are Hawthorn beat Geelong. This still leaves us with a chance considering the games remaining"

Midnight tonight: "We can't make the finals" consensus
"Adelaide thumped the Crows. Hawthorn beat Geelong. It's all ov-ah" :(
 
I said last week that Adelaide's run home meant percentage wasn't going to matter and as far as I'm concerned that belief has already been vindicated.

We either make the finals by virtue of a higher points tally than Adelaide, or we don't make finals at all. It's that simple. We're going to need to win our final three games and hope West Coast do us a favour.
 
We will make it if WCE beat Adel as I am pretty confident we will win our last 3. At least WC are likely to need to win for a top 2 spot so they wont rest players for that game, hopefully they can beat Adel. On early season form they should, but they have more injuries now.

The other way we can make it is if we and Adel both win 3/3 but North drop 2/3. With their draw it is very possible but I am worried with Freo being top that Lyon will send his reserves side over for the North game (he has form doing this) but I can definitely see North losing to both the Dogs and Richmond, North were rubbish for most of today and if they play like that again will probably be the team in 9th.
 

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Pure_Ownage said:
We will make it if WCE beat Adel as I am pretty confident we will win our last 3. At least WC are likely to need to win for a top 2 spot so they wont rest players for that game, hopefully they can beat Adel. On early season form they should, but they have more injuries now.

The other way we can make it is if we and Adel both win 3/3 but North drop 2/3. With their draw it is very possible but I am worried with Freo being top that Lyon will send his reserves side over for the North game (he has form doing this) but I can definitely see North losing to both the Dogs and Richmond, North were rubbish for most of today and if they play like that again will probably be the team in 9th.
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That can't happen
 
year of the cat said:
That can't happen
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Sorry my bad. What I meant was if Adel beat WC and we beat Adel then we both get to 54 points, and I think there is a good chance North will finish on 52. Obviously if North get past 54 then we have to overhaul Adel's % which makes it very difficult for us.
 
Forgive my laziness, but what is the scenario where we win our last three games but miss the finals (as Stevo on Ch 7 said was possible)?
 
GFrost said:
Forgive my laziness, but what is the scenario where we win our last three games but miss the finals (as Stevo on Ch 7 said was possible)?
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Adelaide beats West Coast and we don't overhaul them on percentage.
 
catempire said:
Adelaide beats West Coast and we don't overhaul them on percentage.
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and Adelaide look to have now found their mojo under Camporeale.
They have now won their last four out of five games and with Brisbane to come next weekend, that is surely another percentage boosting victory.
The game against West Coast is at home too, that's pretty much our season right there and then.

I doubt we even beat Collingwood to be honest while St Kilda are coming along quickly. They are going to scare the shit out of us. People are overlooking that one as a certain 4 points. Not the case, especially at Docklands.
 
With the loss tonight our range is from 8-11th IMO depending on wether we win all 3 or lose all 3 remaining games. With a win tonight we could had some crazy scenarios such as finishing 5th or 6th!
 

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Overhang said:
The crows play Brisbane next week and will flog them too, pretty much means if we lose tonight and the crows beat West Coast who they play at home then our round 23 clash wont matter as we would need to beat the crows by a unfeasible amount to pass them on %. I actually think we might have a better chance of North dropping 2 of the next 3 of Freo,WB and Richmond than we do of keeping ahead of the Crows on the ladder.

Assuming we lose tonight then it is a bit of a tough run home, if the saints kicked accurately today then they would have beaten many teams, Collingwood may well turn it up for us and give us a run. I'm confident we beat the Crows at home though.
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I'm worried because we seem to drop some 'gettable' games after we play intense games against the Hawks. I think tonight may have been not as intense as some games in the past, so hopefully we are up and about next week.
 
Looking at the remaining games, we need poor results for Crows, Tiges and North going forward.
North seem to have the toughest draw but are the furtherest ahead, what are people's thoughts on how we can sneak in?
 

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Hinkley29 said:
If we win all 3 we will make it.
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Not if Adelaide beat West Coast and North win 2/3 of their games. Guess you can include Richmond in the dropping 2 as well but really if the pies beat Richmond then I'll be more worried about our game against the pies.
 
GFrost said:
So West Coast are our hope to make Hawthorn travel in finals and are our hope to make the finals ourselves.
(*Mentally shoving aside demons/scars/hatred from 92 and 94*) "Go Eagles!"
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Funnily enough I hold no animosity against the Cokers and will be cheering for them loud and proud over the next few weeks.

Especially in the 'Daaaaaaaarby'
 
10lana said:
If we miss finals in 13.5 wins, you can't possibly be disappointed in your team, more shocked. In some years that would have gotten a team into the top 4.
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It just illustrates a) how even the ladder is from about 4th-10th this year,and how genuinely poor brisbane and carlton are.means teams are getting more wins than before but could still miss finals,ans the draw has a big impact.geelong have a hard draw only playing most of the poorest teams once and so could miss finals in favour of inferior teams who have easier draws.
 
Overhang said:
Not if Adelaide beat West Coast and North win 2/3 of their games. Guess you can include Richmond in the dropping 2 as well but really if the pies beat Richmond then I'll be more worried about our game against the pies.
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Either WC beat adel which means we are definitelt in if we beat adel,or adel beat rich,we beat adel and north lose 2/3 then both us and adel get in.

If adel beat wc and north win 2/3 then we have to win 3/3 and go past adel's % which is hard when they are 9 % ahead and have bris next wk.

We would need to beat st kilda and coll by 60pts + and then still probably beat adel by 60pts + to go past their %.
 
Did the predictor, here's how I have it:

1st Fremantle
2nd Hawthorn
3rd West Coast
4th Sydney (easy draw finishing off)
5th Western Bulldogs
6th Richmond
7th Geelong
8th Adelaide
9th North Melbourne
10th GWS
The rest.

Was as serious as possible answering.
Have North losing final 3 games (vs Freo (ES), Bulldogs (ES) & Richmond (ES).
Geelong have to beat St. Kilda & Collingwood, if we lose to Adelaide we simply finish 8th & Crows 7th.

Predicting the finals is very hard! Here's my results:
Fremantle vs Sydney - Fremantle win.
Hawthorn vs West Coast - Hawks win.
Bulldogs vs Crows - Bulldogs win.
Richmond vs Geelong - Cats win (Tigers choke again :P ).

Then:
Sydney vs Bulldogs - Bulldogs win (unless Swans turn around form a lot).
Eagles vs Geelong - Gotta go Eagles :'(

Then:
Freo vs Eagles - Very hard, going with whoever wins derby tonight.
Hawks vs Bulldogs - Hawks. As much as I want Bulldogs to win of course.

Then:
Freo/Eagles vs Hawks - ANYONE BESIDES THE HAWKS YAY!
:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
 

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