Le Tour through my eye

[Vader]

I've been writing these stage summaries for my parents, who are currently unable to watch the stages on TV due to their geographical location. I thought they deserved a wider audience.

All opinions are my own, as is the rather dark & cynical sense of humour.

I hope you enjoy them..

 

[Vader]

Stage 1
Unlike previous years, there was no prologue - the riders were straight into it with a normal stage. This stage was mostly flat, but the finish was on top of a Cat4 climb which was big & steep enough to eliminate most of the sprinters from contention. The red hot favourite was Phillipe Gilbert, from Omega Pharma Lotto. He'd dominated the Ardennes Classics earlier in the year - and the short, sharp hill at the end was thought to suit him ideally - and so it turned out.

The stage went according to script, until the last kilometre. Cancellara tried attacking with 700m to go, but was quickly caught by Gilbert, who went straight past him. Cadel Evans tried to catch Gilbert, but couldn't close the gap. Gilbert won, Evans was 2nd (3 seconds behind), with a pack of around 30 riders (including most of the GC contenders) a further 3 seconds back. Gilbert's victory gave him the clean sweep - the yellow, green and polka dot jerseys were all his.

The big loser on the stage was infamous drug cheat Alberto Contador. He got caught out by a crash 10km from the finish. An Astana rider clipped a spectator, who was standing too close to the road. The Astana rider veered into the peloton as he fell off, creating a domino effect as rider after rider fell off until the road was completely blocked. I'm not sure if Contador actually came off his bike, but he lost at least 30 seconds waiting to find a way through the traffic jam. He subsequently lost more time on the climb, when he was once again blocked by another fall. In the end he lost 1:20 to Gilbert and 1:17 to Evans (and 1:14 to all the other GC contenders).

Stage 2
Stage 2 was a relatively short Team Time Trial (TTT), just 23km of relatively flat and non-technical riding. Teams left the start at 9 min intervals, ensuring that they wouldn't catch up with each other around the track.

First team out of the blocks was Saxo Bank, Contador's team. They were the worst placed team, having had all of their riders caught out by the crash at the 10km mark on the previous stage. Without a reference time to guide them, they just went hell for leather for the entire stage. This resulted in them burning off a number of riders long before they got anywhere near the finish line - having started with a full complement of 9, they crossed the line with the bare minimum of 5. Subsequent events showed that the key to a fast time in this event was the ability to keep a reasonable number of riders together, allowing constant rotation as the riders fatigued in the latter part of the stage. This proved to be Saxo Bank's downfall.

Saxo Bank's time stood up well initially, as the weaker teams followed them. However, it was blown away by the Garmin-Cervelo team, who started 10th last. Garmin Cervelo came in 28 seconds under Saxo Bank's time - a result which was good enough to win them the stage, the team's first win since the merger of the Garmin-Slipstream and Cervelo Test Team teams at the beginning of 2010.

BMC were 2nd last out of the gate. They weren't expected to do particularly well - nobody expected them to finish in the top 5. Everyone remembered their poor performance 2 years earlier, when they lost 2:30 and effectively blew any chance that Evans may have had to win the tour. Much to everyone's surprise, BMC put in an outstanding performance, finishing 2nd - only 4 seconds down on Garmin Cervelo.

The teams who finished 2nd to 5th all finished within 1 second of each other, so there were no effective changes in the time splits between the main GC contenders (other than Contador - who lost another 24 seconds on all his rivals). The 4 seconds between Garmin Cervelo and BMC turned out to be critical - as it moved Thor Hushovd into the yellow, with his teammate David Millar in 2nd (with the same overall time). Evans was dropped down to 3rd overall, but was now just 1 second off the overall lead of the race. At the end of the 2nd stage, Contador was in 75th place, some 1:42 off the lead - and 1:41 behind Evans.

Omega Pharma Lotto were the last team to start (being the highest ranked team after stage 1). Time trialling is not their specialty and they came in 39 seconds off the pace, with Gilbert losing his hold on the yellow jersey. He still owned the green and polka dot jerseys outright though.

Stage 3
The 3rd stage was a sprinters' paradise - the first time the fast finishers had a real opportunity to shoot for glory. For the most part the course was as flat as a pancake - the only King of the Mountains point on offer was for the 1st rider to top the 66m high bridge at St Nazaire!

The race organisers have changed the points for the intermediate sprints this year. There's now only 1 mid-stage sprint, which is now worth 20pts (half those available at the finish line), with the first 15 riders all collecting points. In previous years there have been multiple mid-stage sprints, but only the first 3 riders scored points - and these were usually cleaned up by the riders in the breakaway. This is no longer the case. The biggest breakaway so far has had just 5 riders, leaving positions 6-15 up for grabs when the peloton came through. As a result we're now seeing the sprinters getting excited twice per stage, instead of putting everything they have into the finish.

Why the big preamble? There was a bit of controversy surrounding the intermediate sprint on this stage. Hushovd and Cavendish found themselves vying for the same bit of road in the lead out to the sprint. Hushovd veered off his line and Cavendish pushed back using his head. The race referees decided to punish both of them, relegating them to last place in the sprint, forfeiting the points that they had earned.

The sprint at the end of the race was won by Tyler Farrar, giving Garmin Cervelo their 2nd stage win in as many days. Cavendish got caught out when a Cofidis rider crashed at the final bend, the best he could do was a 5th placed finish.

With no time bonuses on offer this year, Hushovd retained his yellow jersey. Gilbert retained his polka dot jersey, but the green (points) jersey moved over to spanish rider JJ Rojas who is not only a handy sprinter but had also managed to get to the top of the hill at the end of Stage 1 in a good position.

Stage 4
The first half of stage 4 was fairly flat. The second half was quite lumpy, a bit of a rollercoaster ride, but the only categorised climb was a Cat3 haul up to the finish line on top of the Mur de Bretagne.

It was expected that this stage would play out to a very similar script to Stage 1, with Gilbert the red hot favourite to win the stage. The final climb, which included sections at 10% was expected to eliminate all of the sprinters, with Evans likely to move into yellow. It didn't go quite according to plan..

The first real dramas occurred with 40-50km to go, when the peloton split in half due to some inattentive riding by Ivan Basso and his teammates from Liquigas. Evans was right at the very back of the pack at the time, having been back to the team car due to mechanical problems. Without strong side winds to drive the echelons, the split was short lived and no real harm was done.

Evans ran into further difficulties when he had a flat tyre just 17km from the finish - just as the peloton were accelerating, trying to catch the breakaway. Evans ended up grabbing a new bike from the team car and his teammates did a mountain of work to get him not only back to the peloton, but back to the front of the pack, where he was clearly visible with just 5km to go.

The peloton exploded, as expected, once it hit the steep lower slopes of the climb. By the time the leaders got to the top there were only about 10 of them left in the lead group, mostly GC contenders - plus Thor Hushovd. Nobody had expected the yellow jersey holder to make it up the hill, but there he was, riding with the big boys. Evans took the lead with about 100m to go and surged towards the line, Contador tried to catch him - coming 2nd by just 30cm in a photo finish. In a moment of epic failure, Contador punched the air in victory - though he must have known that Evans had nailed him on the line.

This was Evans 2nd Tour stage victory, though it was the 1st time he'd been able to stand atop the podium. His previous stage victory came in an individual time trial in 2008, when he came 2nd to Alexander Vinokourov - who subsequently got busted for blood doping, was thrown out of the tour and banned for 2 years. The win has also earned him the polka dot jersey, which he'll probably be able to keep for several days (as none of the next few stages have anything above a Cat4 climb).

Even so, it wasn't enough to earn him the yellow jersey. That honour remains with Thor Hushovd. To be honest, I'm not sure why everyone expected Hushovd to struggle on that hill. Hushovd excels in the one-day classics in Belgium, races like the Tour of Flanders and Ghent-Wavelgem. These races feature a number of "bergs", which are all short, sharp and very nasty little climbs (sometimes up to 20%) - exactly what he faced here.

Anyway, Hushovd retains his yellow jersey and appears likely to retain it until the race arrives in the Central Massif on Saturday. Saturday's stage features a Cat2 climb near the end of the stage - I'm betting that this will be too much for the God of Thunder. Evans is now in 2nd position, with Millar having lost 8 seconds on the final ascent. This is ideal for Evans, as it means that his team won't have to waste energy riding on the front of the peloton each day in defence of the yellow jersey. All he has to do for the next few days is ride near the front of the peloton and keep out of trouble.

The green jersey remains in the hands of JJ Rojas, though Evans is only 2pts adrift and Gilbert is 3pts behind in 3rd position.

So, that's the story so far. As it stands, Hushovd is 1st, with Evans 1sec behind. Most of the main contenders are within 20 sec of Evans, except for Contador who remains stuck in 41st position, 1:41 behind Evans. This tour has been all Evans - he has a 1st and 2nd from 3x individual stages, plus a 2nd placed finish in the TTT as well. So far, so good.

 

[Vader]

Stage 5
This stage was mostly through the narrow roads of Brittany, with the last 70km hugging the coast. I think the organisers were hoping for some nice cross winds, creating a bit of excitement in the pack & potentially causing the peloton to split into echelons. It didn't happen, though the combination of nervous riders, narrow roads and the occasional bit of rain did cause a lot of excitement - in the form of crashes.

Best comedy line of the day came from the Rabobank team, where their team leader Robert Gesink was "involuntarily acquainted with the asphalt". He ended up with stitches in the elbow and right hand, but is continuing in the race. The same accident saw RadioShak rider Janez Brajkovic eliminated from the race with a broken collarbone and what appeared to be a concussion, with quite a bit of claret spilled from his noggin.

Not far up the road and everyone's favourite drug cheat and allround poor sportsman, Alberto Contador, found karma continuing to haunt him this tour, falling off and ripping his jumper to shreds. Unfortunately he was able to return to the race and eventually finished with the main peloton.

Brajkovic wasn't the only RadioShak rider to go down - at least 6 of the 9 riders on his team found themselves on the ground at some point during this stage. Yaroslav Popovych was frequently seen riding alongside the doctor's car during the last 1/3 of the race, receiving treatment for injuries sustained in a fall which wasn't captured by the TV cameras.

Tom Boonen, the former world champion, went down in a crash which took out almost the entire QuickStep team. He lost almost 6 min before the doctors would let him get back on the bike. He ended up finishing 13 min behind the peloto, well within the 18min cut off for elimination. He looked pretty well battered and bruised - a very sore (but unbroken) collarbone and a lovely blood stain on his hip both testament to him hitting the ground very hard indeed.

The award for "Most Spectacular Crash of the Day" went to Nicki Sorenson, of the SaxoBank team. He was clipped by a camera motorcycle as it moved up the outside of the peloton. Sorenson was thrown off his bike and skidded for several metres along the ground, thankfully he was thrown clear of the road and his slide was along the grassy verge - so he was almost uninjured. His bike was caught under the motorcycle and dragged for 400m. Sorenson claimed a replacement bike from the team car and went on to finish the stage.

With a stage like this, it just wasn't possible for the bleeding carrots (Euskatel Euskadii) to get away unscathed. Sure enough, they lost one of their riders with a broken collarbone, resulting from a fall just 15km from the finish - long after the rest of the carnage had concluded and sanity had returned to the pack.

In total there were 3 riders who were forced to abandon during this stage - Brajkovic, the bleeding carrot (Ivan Velasco) and Christophe Kern from Europcar. I have no idea why Kern had to abandon the race.

As for the race itself...

A breakaway group of 5 riders got away early, building a maximum lead of 10min, but they were caught ridiculously early (45km to go) due to the peloton speeding up due to all the crashes. With the early break back in the pack, another group of 2 riders did the bolt with 30km to go. Tommy Vouckler held out until the last 2-3 km, but the stage was always going to be one for the sprinters and Mark Cavendish was first one across the line.

Hushovd retained the yellow jersey, with Evans still just 1sec behind. Evans retained the polka dot jersey. Rojas was originally given the green, but the jury subsequently disqualified him from the intermediate sprint, resulting in the green jersey being passed to Gilbert.

Stage 6
This was the longest stage of the race (226km), taking the riders from Brittany into Normandy. The weather was not great for them, with rain showers (sometimes quite heavy) on and off for the duration of the stage. For all that, there wasn't much in the way of crashes - though Levi Leipheimer managed to come off his bike with 15km to go, losing just over a minute on the peloton. Realistically, he lost more than that - he also lost any chance he might have had of finishing on the podium.

Contador had to change bikes late in the stage, but unfortunately he didn't lose any time overall. His mechanical issue occurred early enough that the peloton didn't have the hammer down and he was able to rejoin the race relatively easily.

This stage wasn't one for the pure sprinters. The last kilometre was relatively flat, but the km before it had a nasty little climb that eliminated most of the fast finishers. In the end it was a Norwegian, Edvald Boasson Hagen who crossed the line first, just ahead of Australia's Matt Goss and yellow jersey holder Thor Hushovd. Evans finished in 12th position, in the pack, along with all the other GC riders except for Leipheimer.

The overall situation hasn't changes - Hushovd still leads Evans by 1sec. Gilbert extended his lead in the points (green jersey) competition, with the likes of Rojas & Cavendish failing to claim any sprint points at the finish line. Evans lost his polka dot jersy to Vacansoleil rider, Johnny Hoogeland (love that name), who was in the breakaway and claimed both of the Cat3 climbs on offer. Somehow, I don't think Evans will be too upset.

 

[Vader]

Stage 7
This stage was expected to be tediously dull, running to the usual formula - breakaway forms, sprinters' teams come to the front, breakaway caught 5-10km from the finish, sprinters have a field day and Cavendish probably wins. The stage was almost pancake flat, without even a single Cat4 climb to make things interesting. The race organisers did manage to come up with one way of spicing things up - they located the sprint just 30km from the finish, tempting the sprinters to reel in the breakaway earlier than usual, allowing them to sprint for full points for both sprints. This would create potential for a 2nd breakaway to form after the intermediate sprint, one made up of fresh riders who had been hidden in the peloton for the rest of the stage, a far more dangerous proposition than a breakaway that had been roasting in the sun for 5-6hrs.

The final result did indeed go according to script, with Cavendish claiming another sprint finish - his dominance makes things rather tedious on stages like this. However, the road to Chateauroux proved to be a little more interesting than expected.

The first bit of interest came with the abandonment of former world champion,Tom Boonen. Boonen succumbed to the injuries he sustained when falling heavily 48hrs earlier. His abandonment wasn't particularly riveting - he just pulled over to the side of the road, the team manager removed his race number, he then climbed into the team car, while the mechanic placed his bike on the roof. Game over.

The real fun started about 38km before the finish, with a major crash about 2/3 of the way back down the peloton. This crash would directly claim 2 riders - and indirectly claim the chances of several others. The first victim was Bradley Wiggins, the GC contender from Team Sky. Wiggins was forced to abandon due to a broken collarbone, a disastrous result for a rider who was in excellent form - having won the Criterium du Dauphine not long before starting the Tour. The second victim was RadioShak's Chris Horner, one of their 4 GC contenders and the winner of the Tour of California - in the most blatant case of doping seen in a very long time. This is a rider who struggled to do anything a few years ago, when riding as a domestique for Evans, then at the age of 40 he turns things around and blows away some of the world's best climbers? If you believe that wasn't drug induced, then I'm guessing you'll also believe in Father Christmas, the Tooth Fairy and Easter Bunny. Horner arrived at the finish line in a very sad and sorry state, clearly concussed. He had no idea that he'd crashed, where he was, or how long he'd been chasing the lead peloton.

The stage also claimed a few indirect victims, with the biggest of them being Gerraint Thomas, Edvald Boassen Hagen and Levi Leipheimer. Thomas & Boassen Hagen are both Team Sky riders, who weren't actually involved in the crash. They spent 3 min waiting to escort Wiggins, their wait in vain as he was forced to abandon. As a result, these riders went 3 min down on the overall GC standings. Thomas was the wearer of the white jersey, for best young rider, but was forced to give it up to Robert Gesink as a result of the 3 min loss. Boassen Hagen was the winner of the previous stage, losing 3 min cost him a place in the top-10 on GC. Leipheimer lost a minute the day before, due to a crash - he lost another 3 min here, completely eliminating any chance he may have had to compete for the podium in Paris.

No change to the overall results - Hushovd still held yellow (1sec ahead of Evans), Gilbert held green, with Hoogeland in polka dots.

Stage 8
The climb up to Super Besse Nancy was supposed to provide the first real sorting of the riders, with the commentators constantly telling us that Hushovd was almost certain to lose the yellow to Evans on this stage. Guess what? They lied. Just like he has with all the previous climbs, Hushovd reach the finish line in the same group as all the GC contenders - thus keeping hold of the yellow jersey for one more day.

This stage took the riders into the Puys (dormant/extinct volcanoes) in the Massif Centrale. The stage had 4 categorised climbs - a couple of Cat4 climbs early, with a Cat2 25km from the finish, with a mountain top finish atop a final Cat3 climb. I must admit, it was very green and scenic.

The race started, as it usually does, with a breakaway forming. This one included 9 riders - the biggest of the race so far. One of them was a rider from Sky, the team having changed tactics with Wiggins being eliminated - now they're reduced to hunting for random stage wins. The breakaway built a lead of 6 min, before BMC went to the front of the pack and started to reel them in. Eventually BMC were joined on the front by riders from Astana, who were trying to set things up for an attack by Vinokourov, which came on the Cat2 climb.

The stage's winner (by 12 seconds) was Rui Costa, one of the riders from the initial breakaway - the first successful breakaway of this year's race. Second across the line (3sec ahead of the pack) was Gilbert, who once again did the bolt as the pack rode up the final Cat3 climb. Cadel Evans was the best of the rest, coming in 3rd, at the head of a pack of 22 riders - including Thor Hushovd.

In the end, the only real change was the polka dot jersey changing hands, with Tejay Van Garderen (the 3rd youngest rider in the race) taking the lead in the KOTM competition, by virtue of being first across the top of the Cat2 climb.

 

[Vader]

Stage 9
This stage was easily the most interesting of all the stages contested so far in this year's tour. It had a bit of everything - a successful breakaway, spectacular crashes, yellow jersey's changing hands, the works.

It took a while, but a breakaway eventually formed after an hour or so on the road. Much to the suprise of nobody, Thommy Voeckler and Johnny Hoogeland were out the front, joined by well known adventurers Juan Anthonio Flecha, Luis Leon Sanchez and Sandy Cassar. I'm sure you're familiar with those names, having watched breakaway after breakaway over the last few years.

Hoogeland was out to re-gain the polka dot jersey, which he lost to Van Garderen yesterday. With more points on offer on this stage than the previous 8 combined, he made a good job of it, claiming top spot on almost all of the day's climbs. He missed out on the last 2 climbs, but that wasn't his fault at all - more about that later.

Voeckler had bigger things on his mind. He famously spent a week in yellow in 2004 and saw this as his chance to steal a couple of days again, before the tour hits the Pyrenees and his chances fade to zero. He only needed the breakaway to win by around 91 seconds - but would the peloton give them that much leeway?

The first rider to come a cropper was liar, (drug) cheat and all-round poor sportsman, Alberto Contador. Ain't Karma wonderful? I've seen footage which indicates that his crash may have been the result of being punted sideways by a Katusha rider (Vladimir Karpets). It's inconclusive, but it's a fair indication of the regard with which he is held - if true. Fortunately for him (and unfortunately for the rest of us), he had a relatively soft landing - he was only travelling slowly and ended up in the grass, rather than the asphalt. He spent a while getting attention from the team car, before making his way back up through the convoy to rejoin the peloton. His teammates were notable by their absence, forcing him to do all the work himself - any other GC rider would have found 3 or 4 riders willing to help bring him back into the pack while minimising the energy lost in doing so. Is this a sign that they love him just as much as the rest of us?

The next crash was massive. Unfortunately, it was also completely missed by the television cameras. The aftermath though, received a great deal of coverage. This crash involved a large number of riders, with some of them ending up amongst some trees in a ravine off to the right hand side of the road. By far the worst of the injuries was a broken femur, suffered by Alexander Vinokourov. Vino was going to retire at the end of the year anyway, so this has brought the end of his career forwards by a few months. Vino might have been a convicted drug cheat, but he was also one of the most exciting riders in the peloton, due to his propensity for going out on adventurous raids in the high mountain stages. His loss makes one less variable for the GC contenders to take into calculation.

Joining Vino in the ambulance were Omega Pharma Lotto team leader Jurgen Van Den Brock (broken collarbone), David Zabriskie (broken wrist), and Frederick Willems (broken collarbone). Lucky not to join them was Andreas Kloden, who spent a while sitting on the ground being assessed by the medical staff - he finished the stage, but who knows how he'll pull up after the rest day?

The first week of the tour is always full of crashes. That's not unusual. What is unusual is that so many of these crashes have involved the main GC contenders. Normally it's the domestiques, sitting towards the back of the pack, who bow out, but this year it's been mainly GC riders. Those affected so far include Contador (still riding), Wiggins (out), Leipheimer (still riding), Horner (out), Brajkvic (out), Van Den Brock (out), Vinokourov (out), Boonen (out) and Kloden (still riding).

With so many riders injured or held up by the crash, and such a long way still to go, the leaders of the peloton decided to neutralise the next few kilometres of the race, allowing those who were capable of doing so to get back into the peloton. There were two major beneficiaries of this decision - Andreas Kloden and the riders in the breakaway.

Prior to the crash, the breakaway's advantage had been coming down quite rapidly. They led by just 3 min at the time of the crash, having previously led by 6 min. They took advantage of the neutralisation period, blowing the lead out to over 7 min - and that was all she wrote. The peloton can reel in a breakaway at better than 1min per 10km on the flat lands, not so in the mountains - the stronger riders might be able to go up the mountains faster than the breakaway, but it's even stevens on the way back down again.

With the race's biggest crash already consigned to history, it was time for the race's stupidest crash. This crash was caused by the driver of a French TV car, who chose a really bad moment to have a serious brain explosion. The driver of the car was attempting to overtake the 5 riders in the breakaway. The riders were in the middle of the road, as is their right. This forced the drive partially onto the verge. The driver got half way through his overtaking manouevre, when he spotted a tree directly in his path. Instead of slamming on the brakes and waiting until it was safe to pass, he swerved violently to the right. In doing so, he slammed straight into the side of Flecha, sending him flying. Flecha in turn collided with Hoogerland, who was launched straight into a barbed wire fence.

Fortunately, both riders survived the fall and both made it to the finish line. Hoogerland's injuries were horrific, as you'd expect from someone who was flung into a multi-strand barbed wire fence. His legs were shredded and the last time we saw him his legs were covered with blood and blood-soaked bandages. He made it to the finish line inside the cut-off, but it will take a miracle for him to get to the finish line in Paris. My guess: he'll start stage 10 on Tuesday, wearing the polka dot jersey he worked so hard to earn, but he'll pull the plug long before the finish, succumbing to the stupidity of the car's driver.

Thor Husovd's Garmin-Cervello team did a fair amount of work on the front of the pack, trying to drag the breakaway back in, but eventually they realised that it was all in vain. BMC had a crack at it too, with the same result. In the end, the peloton just couldn't be bothered and the final margin ballooned by a min in the last 10km. Having made such a fantastic effort to get to the top of every single climb to this point, Hushovd was notable by his absence at the finish line this time around.

The stage was eventually won by LL Sanchez, followed by Voeckler and Casar. Gilbert was the best of the rest, taking advantage of a complete absence of sprinters to extend his lead in the Green Jersey competition. Evans finished 6th overall.

Voeckler now moves into yellow, 1:49 ahead of Sanchez, with Evans now 3rd at 2:26 - and still the best placed of the GC contenders. As previously mentioned, Hoogeland claimed the polka dot jersey and did it the hard way. Gilbert now has a strong grip on the green jersey, his total of 217 points being 45 better than Rojas (172) in 2nd place.

Today is a rest day, followed by two more flat stages for the sprinters - then the riders hit the Pyrenees and the fun really begins.

 

[Vader]

Well, it's been a tedious two nights, up late watching the TV. Stage 11 takes the cake as the most boring of the race so far, with not a single thing worth mentioning - other than passing by some very pretty chateaux. At last though, the pain is over - tonight the riders hit the Pyrenees and the action begins for real.

There were a couple of things to come out of the rest day.. One of the Katyusha riders failed a doping test (pinged for having a diuretic in his urine) and has been thrown out of the tour - if the B-sample also comes up positive he'll be sacked by the team and forced to pay them 5x his annual salary as a fine. RadioShak's Yaroslav Popovych was also forced to withdraw from the race, after coming down with a fever during the rest day.

Stage 10
This stage started out strictly to formula - a breakaway of 5 riders formed, rode off into the midday sun, only to be caught well before the finish line. What happened next though at least managed to provide a bit of interest..

The peloton made the mistake of catching the breakaway too soon, doing so with about 25-30km left to race. This left the door open for some relatively fresh adventurers to seize an opportunity. Even better, the capture happened in a slightly hilly area, giving the new breakaway riders a genuine chance of building a lead without the peloton managing to organise themselves properly.

So, who got away? First cab off the rank was the green jersey holder, Philippe Gilbert. He was promptly joined by yellow jersey holder, Tommy Voeckler (and 2-3 riders you've never heard of). After a while the group was joined by HTC's Tony Martin, who is a seriously good time trial rider - normally you'd think that this would significantly improve their chances of succeeding, but his arrival was actually the kiss of death for the breakaway. Martin rides on the same team as Cavendish and he was sent forward to act as a "policeman", not taking turns on the front of the group, acting like an anchor pulling them back towards the peloton.

The group had a good run of 12km, but were eventually swamped just 5km out from the finish, as the teams of the sprinters drove the peloton onwards.

There was one last surprise in store, with Andre Greipel winning the sprint and claiming his first Tour stage, crossing the line a wheel length ahead of Cavendish in 2nd place. Gilbert's effort to breakaway cost him severely, as he was unable to claim any sprint points on this stage - and had his lead slashed from 45 points to just 19 in the points competition (green jersey).

Other than that, there was no change in the overall standings. Voeckler retains his yellow jersey, with Evans still in 3rd as the best placed of the GC contenders. No change in the KOTM competition either, with Johnny Hoogerland retaining his hard earned lead - one of his teammates did a great job of winning all the climbs, preventing any other rider from making headway into Hoogerland's lead.

It didn't take long for these to go on sale, following his spectacular tumble just before the rest day:

Stage 11
As previously noted, this was the most tedious stage of the race so far. Everything went according to formula, with no crashes, no late breakaways, and the inevitable sprint victory to Cavendish (ahead of Greipel).

The breakaway contained 6 riders, from the usual teams - those without a GC rider (or those who have lost their GC riders). Vacansoleil were noticeably absent, but the others were all "the usual suspects". The breakaway was caught about 5km before the finish, leaving the sprint teams to go about their business unhindered.

The energy Gilbert expended in the previous day's late breakaway may have really come back to bit him too - he didn't feature in either the intermediate or final sprints on Stage 11, losing the green jersey to Cavendish, who now leads the points competition by 16pts from Rojas, who is a further 4pts ahead of Gilbert.

Gilbert might be a stronger climber than the other two, but he's not strong enough to beat the high mountain specialists - and thus is unlikely to gain many (any) points over the next few stages.

No changes to the yellow or polka dot jerseys.

Looking Forward
Tonight's stage is the first of 3 in the Pyrenees. It starts off with a nice "gentle" Cat1 climb, followed by two back-to-back HC climbs - the Tourmalet and the mountain top finish at Luz Ardiden. The likes of Voeckler & Sanchez will disappear from the GC leaderboard, but I'm not expecting to see major fireworks between the GC contenders - that will happen next week when the tour hits the Alps (including a mountain top finish on top of the Col du Galibier - at 2645m). I think they'll test each other out a bit, noting that all the GC riders have question marks over them, but the real sorting won't come until much later.

 

[Vader]

The History
The tour last visited Luz Ardiden in 2003 - and it was the scene of a famous Armstrong victory. Armstrong attacked at the bottom of the climb, but crashed after clipping a spectator (he later admitted he shouldn't have been riding that close to the side of the road). In a display of sportsmanship which is completely anathema to scum like Contador, Jan Ullrich chose not to attack the fallen rider. Ullrich wanted to be known as the man who beat Armstrong, not the man who took advantage of a fallen competitor. Armstrong re-mounted and tried to attack again, only to have his foot slip out of the pedal - he nearly came off again and was lucky not to crush his one remaining testicle on the bike's crossbar. Armstrong was riding in a drug induced haze and petty incidents like these weren't going to deter him - he attacked again, leaving an equally drug assisted Ullrich in his wake, going on to a solo win at the top of the climb. It was one of Armstrong's most famous wins.

Stage 12
This stage promised much and delivered in spades. It was the first visit to the high mountains, with a mountain top finish at Luz Ardiden in the Pyrenees. The stage itself contained a Cat1 climb, before the HC climbs over the Col du Tourmalet and the ride up to Luz Ardiden itself. I'm not going to name the Cat1 climb - you won't have heard of it before (it was making its tour debut) and the name is entirely unpronouncable, consisting of 2/3 of the alphabet arranged in a seemingly random order.

SBS timed things rather nicely, for a change. The stage itself was 211km in length, but the sprint and all 3 climbs were jammed into the last 100km. The live coverage started with the peloton just beginning to get organised for the intermediate sprint. Well done SBS!

The intermediate sprint, much to the suprise of nobody, was won by Cavendish - extending his lead in the points competition. His teammates got a little bit clever, by continuing to sprint instead of peeling off when their lead out job was done - in doing so they limited the number of points available to Rojas and Gilbert, further protecting Cavendish's lead.

With that little interlude out of the way, the real fun began. Voeckler's Europcar team took their place at the front of the peloton and began driving the group towards the Cat1 climb. Further up the road was a breakaway (shocking, I know). The best known rider in the group was Geraint Thomas, from Team Sky - Thomas would keep us well & truly entertained for most of the stage.

I have to say that the pace set by Europcar wasn't all that fast. Very few riders were cast off the back of the peloton on the 1st climb - and most of those who did lose contact were able to regain it on the way back down the other side. The other effect this had was to encourage flyers to go off the front of the pack, with several riders opting to go down ths path, some on the uphill, some deciding that the peloton wasn't descending fast enough for their liking.

Thomas went over the top of the Cat1 climb in 5th position and was expected to catch the lead group on the descent. Things didn't go quite according to plan. He locked his brakes going round one of the hairpin bends near the top, continuing straight on between two parked cars - thankfully he was able to stop quite quickly and didn't go tumbling down the long, steep, grassy slope. He regained the road and continued down the mountain, only to have the same thing happen again a minute or so later. Needless to say, he probably needed a change of underwear when he eventually got to the finish.

A couple of minutes later, the peloton reached the same corner (the site of Thomas' first excursion). Voeckler locked up his rear wheel as he came out of the corner, setting off a chain reaction which saw several riders hitting the asphalt quite hard - the most notable rider to crash was Andreas Kloden, the last of RadioShak's GC contenders. Needless to say, any crash with multiple riders going down has to have included one of the bleeding carrots - and this was no exception.

The peloton now reached the foot of the Tourmalet, almost completely intact - except for the 10-12 riders who had shot off the front. The Schleck boys put their team on the front, with instructions to increase the pace to sort out the men from the boys. It wasn't quite a complete failure, but it was damn close. They reduced the peloton from around 150 riders, down to about 40-50, but they completely failed to put any of the GC riders into any difficulty at all. In doing so, they completely assassinated their own team, meaning that they would be without any supporters on the final climb of the day.

The Leopard-Trek attack ran out of steam about half-way up the Tourmalet and things settled back into a stalemate, with Europcar & Voeckler resuming their role on the front of the peloton.

Further up the road, Thomas had not only caught the 4 leaders, he'd gone straight past them and had started to ride solo towards the summit. It was an incredibly brave effort. He was caught shortly before the summit by Jeremy Roy (of team FDJ), who decided to steal the 5000 euro prize (for being 1st rider across the Tourmalet) out from under Thomas' nose. Doh!

By the time the peloton reached the bottom of the Tourmalet, they were 3 min down on Thomas & Roy, with an assortment of riders in the gap, including Roman Kreuzinger (Astana GC hopeful who was already 50min down due to previous crashes), Sammy Sanchez (the reigning Olympic road race champion) and Phillipe Gilbert. Liggett & Sherwin did a great job of trying to keep track of who was where on the mountain, but it can't have been easy with so many small groups ahead of the peloton.

With the GC riders all together at the foot of the final climb, the pedal went down. Thomas' lead began to drop like a stone, losing 1 min in the first kilometre alone. It was obvious that he wasn't going to survive - but who would claim victory? Would it be one of the GC contenders, or someone from one of the other small groups on the mountain?

With nobody else wanting to take charge, Ivan Basso put his teammate on the front of the pack and the group started to power up the mountain. This acceleration finally had the desired effect of dropping most of the wannabes, leaving just the big boys - the likes of Evans, Schleck, Schleck, Contador, Cunego & Basso. Surprisingly, Voeckler (and one of his teammates) managed to stay with this group for most of the way up the mountain - preserving his yellow jersey in the process.

Finally, the attacks began to come. First Frank attacked, then Andy. Both were easily countered. Voeckler took the lead, before Frank Schleck went surging past on the right hand side, never to be seen again. With 2km to go - and only 3 riders up the road (Sanchez, Schleck and a relatively unknown Omega Pharma Lotto rider) - Evans decided to increase the pace, to limit the time being gained by Frank Schleck. Evans powered up the hill, with Voeckler the first to give up the ghost - but he'd done enough by this stage to know that his yellow jersey was well & truly secure.

SBS cut to the lead of the race, where Sammy Sanchez had finally shaken Vanendert off his tail, crossing the line to win by 7 seconds. Frank Schleck finished 10 seconds later and the coverage switched back to the Evans group. While Evans, Andy Schleck & Basso were all together, with Cunego trailing slightly, Contador was nowhere to be seen - he couldn't stand the heat in the kitchen and had been dropped in the process. Evans, Basso & Schleck crossed together, 30 seconds down on Sanchez and 10 behind Frank Schleck. Cunego lost an additional 5 seconds, with Contador coming in 8 seconds later - having conceded another 13 seconds to his biggest rivals.

This stage showed us a few things:
Contador is not even close to the form he showed in winning the race last year. He may be fatigued after doing the Giro d'Italia. He may be suffering from the all crashes he's been involved in. He's probably not on the juice, having been caught doping in last year's race (the outcome of which won't be known until early next month). It's probably a combination of all these factors.
Andy Schleck's form isn't great either.
Frank Schleck, on the other hand, appears to be in very good climbing form. Such a pity though that he can't ride a time trial to save his life.
Evans' form continues to be excellent - he rode really well on this climb and never looked to be in any difficulty at all.
Ivan Basso is the dark horse, just 70 seconds behind Evans. Like Evans, he showed no signs of cracking at all on this mountain stage.

One thing's for sure - the winner of the race will come from this group of 5 riders. Everyone else can be counted out - and that includes Cunego, Sanchez and Voeckler. Evans remains in the box seat, just 17sec down on Frank Schleck and leading all the other contenders. Unlike the Schleck brothers, Evans can Time Trial - Contador is the only one who is better in that regard and Evans' current lead should be enough to have him covered.

So.. where are we at with the jerseys? Voeckler retains the yellow. Leon Luis Sanchez lost a lot of time on this stage and slips from 2nd to 37th overall. Frank Schleck jumps from 4th to 2nd, trailing Voeckler by 1:49. Evans is a further 17sec back, stuck in a Schleck sandwich, with Andy a further 11 seconds behind. There's no change in the points classification, with Cavendish still leading from Rojas and Gilbert. Sammy Sanchez takes not only the stage win, but the polka dot jersey as well. Hoogerland, the biggest hero of the tour so far, slips from 1st to 5th in this competition.

 

[Vader]

Stage 13
This stage was always going to be won by the breakaway riders. The stage contained only one big climb - the Col d'Aubisque, with the summit coming some 42.5km from the finish line. This meant that there was no point in the GC riders trying to battle it out - one mountain isn't usually enough to sort the men from the boys and the effort would almost certainly go to waste anyway, with a high probability that the dropped riders would catch back up again on the descent.

So, with the GC riders in rest & recovery mode and the sprinters knowing that they wouldn't be in any shape to do anything after climbing the mountain, that really didn't leave anyone to chase down the breakaway.

The breakaway initially consisted of 10 riders, but a series of attacks on the mountain saw the group break up completely. First one over the mountain was Jerome Roy, in yet another breakaway, followed by David Moncoutie and Thor Hushovd. You'll be familiar with David Moncoutie, as Phil & Paul mention him in the commentary on almost every single stage - he always rides at the very back of the peloton, unless he's in a breakaway (like today).

They might have gone over the mountain in the order of Roy, Moncoutie, Hushovd, but things soon changed on the way down the other side. Hushovd caught Moncoutie about 20km from the finish and the two of them began to power along the relatively flat roads towards the finish. They caught Roy about 5km from the finish and Hushovd accelerated with a burst of power that the other 2 couldn't hope to match. He went on to win by 10 seconds from Moncoutie, with Roy another 16 seconds back. The peloton came freewheeling through 7 min later.

Hushovd couldn't believe his luck. He used to be a world class sprinter, now he's a "strong man", who does his best work in the one-day classics. Never in his wildest dreams would he have thought that he'd one day win a stage in the high mountains of the Pyrenees.

So, to the overall picture. As previously noted, there was no change at the top of the table in the race for the yellow jersey. All the GC riders finished with the peloton, so no time differences were recorded. Jerome Roy received the polka dot jersey as the new leader in the KOTM competition, a just reward for being first over the Col d'Aubisque. No change in the points competition either, with Cavendish still leading from Rojas and Gilbert.

The biggest retirement on this stage was Andreas Kloden, the last of RetirementShak's GC riders. He pulled the plug after just 25km, succumbing to his injuries from previous crashes. His retirement leaves the team with just 5 riders left in the race.

Stage 14
This was supposed to be the big Pyrenean stage, with a mountain top finish at Plateau de Baille (pronounced Buy or Bay). The tour had only finished here on 4 previous occasions - and on ever one of those occasions the stage winner went on to claim yellow in Paris. Not this time, methinks!

The stage was the hilliest so far, with 2x Cat1, 2x Cat2, 1x Cat3 and 1x HC climbs to be negotiated. Surely this would be enough to separate the men from the boys and allow the GC riders to come up with a real pecking order?

The filtering process started with the 2nd of the Cat2 climbs, the Col de Latrape. Leopard Trek put Stuart O'Grady on the front of the pack to lift the rate - and the non-climbers began to fall off the back of the peloton almost immediately. They repeated the process on the Col d'Agnes, burning through all their remaining domestiques, leaving just the top 20 or so riders to chase down the breakaway on the ride up to the Plateau.

It didn't take long before the group was down to just 10-12 riders (depending on who was yo-yoing off the back). There was Evans, Contador, Schleck x2, Basso, Cunego, Sanchez - plus Tommy Voeckler in his yellow jersey, his offsider Pierre Rolland and Omega Pharma Lotto rider Jelle Vanendert, who had finished 2nd at Luz Ardiden.

This group spent most of the climb shadow boxing with each other - one of the Schlecks would attack, then Evans and/or Basso would lead the rest of the pack back onto their wheel. Things were going nowhere. Vanendert went with about 7km to go and went free, with the GC riders not worried about him - he was 12min down on the lead and no threat to their overall positions. Sanchez was next to go, once again set free by the others who continued to shadow box - Sanchez is only 1:38 behind Evans, but he can't time trial to save his life, so isn't regarded as much of a threat.

Things continued this way almost all the way to the summit. Andy Schleck put in a burst about 150m from the summit, but Evans was quick to react and limited the damage to just 2 seconds. The only big rider to get dropped this time was Cunego, who lost 39 seconds on the main contenders.

For the 2nd time in 3 days, Voeckler was able to stick with the big boys on a climb in the high mountains. Can't wait to see his drug test results - if they don't show a positive to something, then the labs are failing dismally in their attempts to keep drugs out of the sport.

So, to the overall standings...

Voeckler retains yellow, leading from Frank Schleck and Cadel Evans. Sanchez reduced his deficit by 27 seconds (relative to the top-3), which was enough to lift him above Contador & Cunego, but still leaves him in 6th place overall. Cavendish retains his green jersey, having claimed the intermediate sprint earlier in the day. Vanendert took the polka dot jersey, leading Sanchez by just 2 points - 29pts ahead of the previous day's leader (Roy). That's the impact of winning a mountain top finish on an HC mountain, which is worth double points.

So.. why all the shadow boxing? Let's look at the contenders to see why they didn't launch any serious attacks..
Cadel Evans - The Australian is sitting in the box seat due to his outstanding time trialing ability - the others need to attack him, rather than the other way around. Unless the likes of Schleck, Contador & Basso take time out of him in the Alps, Evans will win the Tour when it arrives in Paris.
Frank Schleck - He's not capable of performing miracles in the mountains on a repeat basis - he had his shot on the climb to Luz Ardiden and didn't have enough left for another crack on the Plateau.
Andy Schleck - He's a marked man, who declared his intentions before the race began - his attacks are always the first to be marked and he doesn't have the form to attack and just keep going.
Alberto Contador - Is struggling just to keep in contact with the other riders and doesn't have anything left to mount an attack of his own. This may be due to fatigue from riding the Giro, it may be due to the injuries he's sustained in his crashes, it may also be that he's not on the juice this year (having been caught out last time around). It could be a combination of all these factors.
Ivan Basso - Like Evans, he has a big diesel engine which takes a while to get warmed up. This means that he can ride at a high tempo in the mountains, but he's not good at making violent accelerations - which is what's needed for an attack to succeed.
Damiano Cunego - He's barely hanging on to the rest of the group, having been dropped late on both climbs. His mind is on survival, not attacking.

Stage 15
This was the classic transition stage, between the Pyrenees and the Alps. It was a mostly flat run, with only a solitary Cat4 climb in the middle of the stage. The breakaway had no chance, with this being the sprinters' last chance before the Champs Elysees.

To that end, the stage was almost completely routine. Early breakaway, breakaway caught 5km from the finish, sprint finish, victory to Cavendish. Gilbert tried to throw a spanner in the works, by attacking 3km from the finish, but HTC weren't going to let this one get away.

SBS have been playing a musical number each time they return from an ad break, playing over selected highlights of previous "action" from the last 30min or so. Last night's musical selections provided the highlights of the stage (which says a lot about the racing) - first up was "Moving Right Along", as sung by Kermit the Frog and Fozzie the Bear in The Muppet Movie, this one has actually appeared a few times during the coverage so far; next up was "Cows with Guns" (look it up on YouTube), with a pictorial of all the different cattle breeds they'd shown on the race so far.

Anyway, no change to the state of play in any of the 3 main categories. Voeckler, Cavendish & Vanendert all hold on for another day.

 

[Vader]

Any thoughts/comments?

 

[no1bankteller]

Good summary. Great read

 

[crowsarethebest]

I would put Voeckler as a contender now. He has defended superbly so far. If he doesn't lose anytime in the Alps he'll be in the box seat (however I'm certain he'll lose time, it's just a matter of how much as Contador and Schlecks will no doubt go all out). Cadel should blow most of the top 10 guys away in the ITT, however if Voeckler does not lose any time to Cadel then he's a massive chance. In the Dauphine this year they had a TT which is the exactly the same course as the one coming up next week. Cadel finished around 2 minutes faster than Voeckler and about 5 minutes better than Basso (although Basso was still recovering from an injury). He also beat Sammy Sanchez convincingly, guys like Contador, Schlecks, Cunego etc did not race however.

 

[Vader]

Don't expect Voeckler to repeat that feat in the TT. By his own admission he got caught by Brajkvic and basically followed him all the way to the finish (presumably staying just far enough behind to avoid getting pinged for drafting).

If Voeckler still has the yellow jersey by that time, he won't have anyone behind him - he'll be all on his own, the whole way around. In that case, you'd expect him to lose 8-9min, which is his normal TT standard.

If he's not in yellow, then he'll be far enough down the order that he'll be irrelevant anyway.

 

[Cruiser23]

Fantastic work, been a good read, keep it up.

I think with the rest day and the Alps just on the other side, this may be a good time to discussion the potential yellow jersey wearer in Paris. It's much more interesting than i thought it would be up until this point and there seems to varying thoughts on how it may pan out.

There is this hype over Cadel, he's done all he's been asked so far but personally he's overhyped and there are only two men i'd be banking on the take the yellow at the end of the Tour. It's the two fells who most of us thought would be duelling it out at this point, Alberto and Andy. Cadel has put himself in a very nice position but i don't think he has enough time. Here is the reasoning...

You may say Alberto and Andy weren't able to gain any time on Cadel in the Pyrenees, what makes you think they can in the Alps?

Alberto has sat back for two reasons, first off he's a little banged up. He realises this is a three week tour so an attack when he's not fully 100% would be silly. Secondly the Schlecks need to attack and were going to try early for two reasons, to try and drop Alberto who was supposedly struggling and the put time into Cadel. Alberto was there to suck wheels whilst hoping to tail the Schleck who may have been able to put gaps into Basso/Sanchez/Cadel. That's why you continually heard him say, "The Schlecks need to attack...". This has helped him because now he'll get back to his best in the Alps, he would not have stayed on if he didn't believe he would. There he'll attack and with the help of the Schleck will drop the likes of Cadel and potentially Basso and Sanchez.

Andy wasn't able to put time into the others, for me because, first the GC hadn't been worn down enough and he didn't have the help of Contador, strange as that sounds. Like Contador he'll get better because this is the only Tour he does all year, there will be no drop off. Andy needed repeat attacks, you could see he was strong, he put in a fair amount of nice attacks but the thing is, he was the only one doing so. Once Alberto finds his feet, you'll see attack from both and Cadel, who isn't in the same caliber as Alberto or Andy on the big steep climbs will be found out. It just take ONE, just ONE crack for Cadel and his Tour is on a knifes edge because as i said above, i don't think he has that much time to play with (i'll get to that below).

You've also got to take into account the help. Sanchez has already come out and said he'll alliance with Contador, Andy has Frank, there will be repeat attacks from all with Cadel struggling to decide which on to chase down. If he panics, which he has shown to do in the past, he'll try to do too much and get himself into trouble. Add to that Basso has the best domestique going around and Contador has another card to play, he's got a number of riders in the peloton that may get in a break and help him down the road. Sticking to Contador and Schlecks is not as easy at it sounds. Personally i think Contador has a couple of gears, Andy can go up a gear or two whilst i think Cadel is somewhat on the limit. I must admit his form has proved to be better than i expected, i thought he'd lose time in the Pyrenees but i don't think he'll have the legs in the Alps once the best two climbers get, somewhat desperate and kick i up a gear.

Of the other blokes, Basso is interesting, he's got a good fast pace but even less acceleration than Cadel. I don't think he'll lose as much time to Alberto and Andy than Cadel does, he'll give it a good fight but i think it won't be enough.

Voeckler, well, i've got no idea. That yellow jersey seems to turn him into super human, though personally there is something a little more to it than that but...he's a good climber, has been in very good form of the late, but he made the other night look way too easy. He looked like he should have attacked he was that good. Who knows what he comes up with, he's 2 minutes ahead of Evans/A.Schleck and 4 ahead of Contador, if he keeps that form up he's a chance, though in the real world, he'll crack and lose a little time. His TT ability is slighty suspect too but who knows, he seems 'special' right now...

On to the TT, it comes right at the end of the Tour, right when the GC mens legs are buggered. Whilst TT ability comes into it, legs also count. Contador is a better TT than Cadel plus i believe the latter will be right on the limit. 2 minutes isn't enough over 3 tough Mountain Stages and a TT. Andy isn't the worst TTer, he's better than Frank and will be on better legs i suspect, he may lose time to Cadel but not as much as some seem to be expecting him to IMO. Basso isn't a great TTist but this is the only Tour he's doing so his legs will be fine (if it can be fine after 3 weeks), he could surprise.

It's interesting, i know there are other opinions, though i still believe Andy and Contador will be fighting for the top two place on the podium with Cadel/Sanchez/Basso and potentially Voeckler the third and final spot. Combination of potential, team support and ability over 3 weeks has to come into play. I'd personally rank their chances as, Contador/Schleck (can't split them right now), then Basso, then Cadel/Sanchez/Voeckler. Frank somewhere in there but in the end, he'll play second fiddle to Andy and could lose any amount of time in the mountains and in the TT.

 

[tigerT]

great summations above, thoroughly enjoyed the read - personally I think the Alps will be a lot more brutal on the body than the pyranees and the attacks will be more sustained and brutal. As has been mentioned, I fear that Cadel just needs to crack on one climb and his chances are over, however I'll admit he is looking ridiculously comfortable to date, I thought he looked like he had more legs than A.Schleck and Contador tbh and was dissapointed he didn't have a serious crack when a couple of times i felt a sustained effort would've cracked AS and AC. But who knows, perhaps he's saving himself also.

Voeckler does look a little "special" right now lol so you cant count him out, although Im going to trust to common sense and the fact the GC contenders dont really seem to look like they rate him a serious chance.

Basso comes into his own in the 3rd week, he was just putting some feelers out through the pyranees, he'll be a serious player this week, hes a machine.

Unless Contador gets some special gear, he wont win it, looks a mile off and will take a superhuman effort to getup coming off the Giro, seriously he cant do it.

For mine A.Schleck is the man to beat followed by Basso, Cadel, Contador and Sanchez.

This is shaping up as a ripping tour.

 

[LofaTatupu]

Great write ups Vader. Thanks for that. Would've liked to have read the 7th and 8th stages as well. And thanks for the link to the Hoogerland shirt (copy image location), I want one now!

Not going to make any predications, but Cadel has never looked in trouble yet and seems to be in the best form of all the main GC guys (relative to his level of ability/talent). He's like Lleyton Hewitt for me, I don't really like them personally, but I'll support them to the max if they have a realistic shot.

Go Cadel!
(and Richie Porte! I really hope he develops into a serious GC rider a few years down the line. Might as well throw in a Matty Goss shout out as well while I'm here ).

 

[Vader]

Thanks for the reminder.. Stages 7 & 8 have now been added.

A few notes in reply to the responses..

Firstly, I agree that Evans is just one crack away from losing the Tour. That's always the case. However, he's been looking incredibly strong this tour - on every single climb. At no stage has he ever looked like cracking, something which has almost always happened in previous stages. This could be his year.

In Evans' favour is that fact that he's a superior TT rider to all of the other contenders, except Contador. Contador is better - but not 1:50+ better. In contrast, Evans could easily make 1-2 min on Andy Schleck and even more on Frank.

I don't think Andy's form is as good as everyone here seems to think it is. He has finally got some miles into his legs, courtesy of being on the tour, but his form coming into the race was downright ordinary. They Alps are a very different experience to the Pyrenees, but so far he hasn't shown any indication of being able to crack Cadel or the others.

 

[mcgarnacle]

Thanks for the reminder.. Stages 7 & 8 have now been added.

A few notes in reply to the responses..

Firstly, I agree that Evans is just one crack away from losing the Tour. That's always the case. However, he's been looking incredibly strong this tour - on every single climb. At no stage has he ever looked like cracking, something which has almost always happened in previous stages. This could be his year.

In Evans' favour is that fact that he's a superior TT rider to all of the other contenders, except Contador. Contador is better - but not 1:50+ better. In contrast, Evans could easily make 1-2 min on Andy Schleck and even more on Frank.

I don't think Andy's form is as good as everyone here seems to think it is. He has finally got some miles into his legs, courtesy of being on the tour, but his form coming into the race was downright ordinary. They Alps are a very different experience to the Pyrenees, but so far he hasn't shown any indication of being able to crack Cadel or the others.

I dont think it's just the form in the legs that will be important in this final week.

As you have implied, although the pyrenean climbs generally have an average gradient steeper than the alps, the high alpine climbs are longer and go higher. Tourmalet topped out at about 2100m. In the Queen stage of this tour on Thursday to Serre Chevalier Galibier, the riders will be completing 3 HC climbs topping the Agnel/Agnello at 2,750m (the last & highest 9km of this giant are at 10% which has never been raced in the TDF from this the Italian side but the Giro did it once in '07 as an early climb in stage 12), the Izoard at 2,350m, and the finish on the Galibier at 2,650m - the highest ever finish of a TDF stage. I cant see these riders finishing together at all. The length of the climbs as well as oxygen debt will become more of a factor.

Then they'll have to go over the HC Galibier again the next day from the harder Cat 1 Col du Telegraphe side (as opposed to the Lauteret side the previous day) en route to Alpe d'Huez. At 110km, this stage will be a freaken sprint, and carrying such a pace up to 2,600m over the Galibier before tackling the final beast of the tour and probably the most mythical of TDF climbs other than Mont Ventoux, there are going to be casualties and the time gaps will come.

And if they're not ****ed by then, then the ITT in Grenoble should just drain whatever oxygen that circulates around their legs.

Stage 18 suits an engine like Basso who can just keep those pistons pumping away. Stage 19 might need a rider with a turn of speed on the climbs to excel. Hello Bertie. Basso needs the time before the ITT, unless Evans and Contador both crack.

The attacks from the Schleck boys are far from over, and they have more a chance to succeed in the Alps than the pyrenees, but I also think that they're easily defeated (mentally) if it doesnt come off.

Prior to all this though are two descents into Gap & Pinerolo on tonight and Wednesday respectively. Sanchez can get back into this. Enough to negate his ITT weakness? Probably not, but perhaps enough that he'll become a factor and they wont be able to let him go in the alpine mountain finishes like they did in the pyrenees.

They're all going to hurt, and one of these riders will be a great. It will be phenomenal!

 

[Vader]

Stage 16
This stage was expected to be one for the breakaway riders, with just an innocuous little Cat2 climb (the Col de Manse) located 10km from the finish. Nobody expected much in the way of action from the GC riders - which made the race's outcome a very pleasant surprise indeed.

The Col de Manse isn't one of the mythical climbs of the Tour - like Alpe d'Huez, Galibier, Tourmalet, Telegraphe, or Aubisque. It is, however, remembered for another Lance Armstrong moment. Armstrong was descending in the 2003 Tour, when another rider crashed in front of him. Armstrong had no choice but to go cross country, short cutting a hairpin corner by riding straight across a paddock, rejoining the road below the bend. The tour came down the same road last year and someone had marked out Armstrong's path across the paddock - they didn't bother this time around.

The breakaway took forever to form and get away - the entire stage was just 162.5km long and the breakaway were barely gone for 70km of it. Somewhat unusually, the peloton was still together by the time the TV coverage started and we got to watch the comical efforts as one breakaway after another formed and broke up or was brought back to the group. One attempt was too large, another had too many passengers, another had a rider who was a contender for the white (young riders) jersey, another had Rojas (2nd in the points competition). Eventually a group got away, featuring many of the usual suspects from previous breakaways - funny how that seems to happen.

The breakaway attempts weren't helped at all by the speed of the peloton - the group covered 51km in the first hour alone and the winner finished the race at least 20min ahead of the earliest projected time. The winner crossed the line around 12:45AM Canberra time - a good 30 min earlier than most stages contested so far.

In a piece of champagne comedy, the AG2R team manager sent his entire team to the front of the peloton to set the pace - a collective punishment for having failed to put a rider into the breakaway, as per the daily team instructions. They didn't do a very good job of pace setting - the breakaway's lead blew out to 6min after just 15km of riding.

The race arrived in the outskirts of Gap and began to climb the Col de Manse. This is where the fun & games really began. I'll start by telling the story of the lead group, followed by the adventures of the GC riders..

First to go on the climb was a Russian rider from Katusha, but it was Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin Cervelo) who made the critical move. Hesjedal set out after the Russian and passed him, going over the summit alone. Back with the pack, Edvald Boasen Hagen and Thor Hushovd had also escaped. They followed Hesjedal over the top of the mountain and caught him on the tricky descent. Boasen Hagen was on a hiding to nothing, sandwiched between the two teammates, with Hushovd on his back wheel all the way up the finish straight. He knew an attack was coming, he just didn't know when. Hushovd timed his attack to perfection, catching Hushovd slightly off guard, crossing the line for his 2nd stage win of this year's race.

Back with the GC riders and Evans' teammates were setting the early pace on the mountain, before Contador's offsider (Navarro) took a turn at increasing the pace on the front. Then, seemingly from nowhere, Contador launched an attack. The others all caught up and this first attack petered out, however Contador's attack set off a chain of attacks from everywhere - Andy Schleck, Sammy Sanchez, Tommy Voeckler and Contador (again) all attacked.

With about 2km to go to the summit Contador was setting a fast pace, not really an attack - just a high tempo. Then, without warning, Andy Schleck cracked - he pulled over to the side and slid rapidly back down the peloton. Contador quickly opened a small gap, with Evans & Sanchez the only riders to join him. This group of 3 was now free to fly, putting as much time into the other contenders as they could. They went over the top of the mountain with a lead of 20 seconds. All 3 riders are excellent descenders and they flew down the other side of the mountain, with Evans attacking and opening up a significant lead over Contador & Sanchez in the process.

By the time they hit the 3km long finish straight, Evans led by about 10-15 seconds (though it was never officially measured). Contador & Sanchez worked together, while Evans was riding an individual time trial - they reduced the gap, but he still beat them to the line by 3 seconds.

Voeckler, Frank Schleck and Cunego came in 21 seconds behind Evans, benefiting from riding in a large group as they were able to halve the advantage at one stage held by Evans. Basso lost 54 seconds, but the big loser (in more ways than one) was Andy Schleck, who has to be one of the biggest whingers and worst bike handlers in the peloton - he lost 69 seconds to Evans and 66 to Contador.

No sooner had Schleck crossed the line than the whining noise began - he's worse than than a 2yo that didn't get its way. First he starts by saying "I am confident and my form is good. I showed it and I am going to show it again." - no Andy, you just got dropped on a relatively easy Cat2 climb, you had no form coming into the race and you're form has just been shown to be complete rubbish. Then he continues - "I will keep my head up for the next days. I am pretty disappointed, but if this [is] what people want to see - a race decided on a downhill ... I don't think that ... I think the [course] was badly chosen. We don't want to see riders crashing or taking risks." and "Everyone has families at home. A finish like this should not be allowed." Sorry Andy - the race is for the best all round rider, someone who's good at going up hills, down hills, riding time trials - and whatever else the course throws at them. Keep your toys in the cot, you big baby - the organisers aren't going to design courses just so that an unworthy rider such as yourself can win the race. Let's not forget that this is the same spoilt brat who spent 6 months whinging about the time he lost on the pave sectors in one stage of last year's race...

So, what does this all mean?

Firstly, Contador is back in business. The drugs they gave him during the rest day have worked wonders - his knee is better and he's loaded up on rocket fuel once again. He's gained time on almost all of his competitors (other than Evans) - he now trails Andy Schleck by just 39 seconds and Frank by 1:53. He's more than capable of briding these gaps in the ITT.

Where are those drug testers when you need them? More to the point, why are they testing at the end of the stages? Surely the best time to catch a rider would be at the start of the race, before he burns the drug out of his system?

Secondly, Evans has confirmed his favouritism for the race victory. Not only did he stay with Contador on all his attacks, he did so with relative ease, blowing him away on the descent. Evans has put himself in a position where everyone else needs to attack him - he can ride defensively, knowing that he will win the race if he can stay with them on the climbs. Contador won't take 2 min on Evans in the ITT and none of the other riders are in their league when it comes to the race of truth.

Thirdly, Andy Schleck is cooked. Stick a fork in him, he's done. His form coming into the race was thought to be dubious, having cracked on several mountain stages in the warm up events. Contador, Evans & Sanchez know they have his measure now and Schleck's chances of pulling off a winning break are getting smaller by the day.

Basso & Cunego aren't entirely out of it - but neither are they in it. They're both 2min+ behind Evans now and it's hard to see them making up that time and more, given that they're both poor TT riders.

I don't believe that Frank cracked on this climb, he just chose to stay with the peloton to support his brother. He finished with the Voeckler group, just 21sec down on Evans, so his time losses were hardly catastrophic. Effectively he's back where he was before he did the bolt up Luz Ardiden, give or take a single second. Schleck's biggest problem is that he can't TT to save his life - he needs to gain at least 2min on Evans in the Alps if he is to have any hope of victory. I can't see that happening.

That leaves Sammy Sanchez. The Spanish Alliance worked wonders on this stage, with Contador & Sanchez helping each other to limit the damage inflicted by Evans. He's arguably proven to be the strongest climber in the race, though his escapes probably owe more to the other GC riders not rating his chances rather than him making irresistable attacks. He too gained time on all the other contenders (except Contador & Evans). Even so, he still trails Evans by 1:41 - and as a notoriously poor TT rider he'll need a lot more than that if he's to claim top spot on the podium.

So, to the overall standings... Voeckler retains his hold on yellow, with Evans jumping into 2nd place only 1:45 behind. Frank Schleck is 3rd, just 4sec behind Evans. No real change in the points competition, with Cavendish still holding a commanding lead. Rojas & Gilbert narrowed the gap ever so slightly by claiming the last points available on the finish line (3pts & 2pts), but the Manx Missile still leads by a commanding 34pts. No change at all in the KOTM competition, with Vanendert retaining his narrow (2pt) lead over Sanchez.

Tonight's stage is hillier than last night - 5 categorise climbs, including 2x Cat2 and 1x Cat1 climbs. Like last night's stage, it finishes with a steep & technical descent off the top of a Cat2 mountain. Don't be surprised to see Sanchez, Contador & Evans make more time on the other GC contenders, due to their superior descending skills.

 

[deledio_gun]

Love reading your stuff mate. I'm trying to learn some more about cycling so you seem to help me gain some knowledge. Something I'm interested in knowing is your thoughts on the favorites for the ITT? I understand Cadel and Contador ate strongest of the GC leaders, but who are the contenders for the stage win? Cancelarra, Martin? Would love to hear your thought on the top 5 to 10 For this stage.

 

[Vader]

Love reading your stuff mate. I'm trying to learn some more about cycling so you seem to help me gain some knowledge. Something I'm interested in knowing is your thoughts on the favorites for the ITT? I understand Cadel and Contador ate strongest of the GC leaders, but who are the contenders for the stage win? Cancelarra, Martin? Would love to hear your thought on the top 5 to 10 For this stage.

Honestly, I'm not sure. Cancellara is the favourite any time there's a TT involved - being a 4x World Champion in the discipline will do that. Tony Martin is an outstanding TT rider and I wouldn't rule out David Millar, or Geraint Thomas. A win to Contador or Evans would not surprise me in the least either.

A lot of it will depend upon the weather. The riders usually depart at intervals (2min from memory - might be just 1). Given that there are still 169 riders in the race, a 1min interval between riders means that the first riders will be leaving about 3hrs before the yellow jersey holder, call it 6hrs if it's a 2min interval! Weather conditions can change a lot in 3-6hrs - as we've already seen on this race. Riders who are unlucky enough to get caught on wet roads will suffer, while those who are fortunate enough to have dry roads can benefit. Then there's the effect of the wind, which inevitably changes as the day gets longer.

The good news is that the GC riders will all experience similar conditions, being the last bunch to hit the road.

Of the GC riders, Contador is the best TT rider, slightly ahead of Evans. My guess is that his advantage is good for about 30 seconds - but not the 2min that he currently trails by. If these boys have a good ride, then none of the other contenders (Sanchez, Schleck x2, Basso, Cunego, Voeckler) should come within 2 min of them. This is why the Schlecks need to attack again and again in the next 2 days.

 

[deledio_gun]

Honestly, I'm not sure. Cancellara is the favourite any time there's a TT involved - being a 4x World Champion in the discipline will do that. Tony Martin is an outstanding TT rider and I wouldn't rule out David Millar, or Geraint Thomas.

A lot of it will depend upon the weather. The riders usually depart at intervals (2min from memory - might be just 1). Given that there are still 169 riders in the race, a 1min interval between riders means that the first riders will be leaving about 3hrs before the yellow jersey holder, call it 6hrs if it's a 2min interval! Weather conditions can change a lot in 3-6hrs - as we've already seen on this race. Riders who are unlucky enough to get caught on wet roads will suffer, while those who are fortunate enough to have dry roads can benefit. Then there's the effect of the wind, which inevitably changes as the day gets longer.

The good news is that the GC riders will all experience similar conditions, being the last bunch to hit the road.

Appreciate your response mate. I'm slowly learning which riders are favored to which type of stage but was finding it hard to indentify the riders best suited to the TT apart from the couple of obvious ones.

Do you think there will be many sprinters who finish well in the TT and back up and contest the sprint the following day? Or do they tend to hold out for the sprint in Paris.

 

[Hornberger]

A lot of it will depend upon the weather. The riders usually depart at intervals (2min from memory - might be just 1). Given that there are still 169 riders in the race, a 1min interval between riders means that the first riders will be leaving about 3hrs before the yellow jersey holder, call it 6hrs if it's a 2min interval! Weather conditions can change a lot in 3-6hrs - as we've already seen on this race. Riders who are unlucky enough to get caught on wet roads will suffer, while those who are fortunate enough to have dry roads can benefit. Then there's the effect of the wind, which inevitably changes as the day gets longer.

Its 2 minutes between riders for first 150 odd riders and then 3 minutes for the last 20 or so. The first rider is scheduled to start at 10.30. The last rider is expected to start at 16.18. So just under 6 hours between first and last.

 

[Hornberger]

Do you think there will be many sprinters who finish well in the TT and back up and contest the sprint the following day? Or do they tend to hold out for the sprint in Paris.

I can't imagine the sprinter caring less about there overall standing in the GC. There is an elimination time in the TT, I think its 30% of winners time. The winner will do the course in about 50 - 55 minutes. As they won't know the winners time they will finish inside 65 minutes to ensure they won't get eliminated.

 

[Vader]

Do you think there will be many sprinters who finish well in the TT and back up and contest the sprint the following day? Or do they tend to hold out for the sprint in Paris.

The sprinters tend to regard the TT as a day off. It's only 42.5km and all they have to do is get to the finish line within the time limit. Their focus will be well and truly on the race around the Champs Elysees the following day.

EDIT: Note that I also expanded on my previous answer, which you quoted.

 

[Vader]

Its 2 minutes between riders for first 150 odd riders and then 3 minutes for the last 20 or so. The first rider is scheduled to start at 10.30. The last rider is expected to start at 16.18. So just under 6 hours between first and last.

Thanks for the clarification.

I was actually going to write something similar to what you did (2 min gaps, then 3 for the last few) - then I realised that this would mean a 6hr gap between start times & thought that this was unlikely. Turns out that my first instinct was correct.