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Line movement information?

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Rabbitbrewo

Rabbitbrewo

Draftee
Jan 24, 2011
3
0
AFL Club
Fremantle
I've been trying to find a website that provides line movement and weight of money information in regards to AFL and Super Rugby.

Does anyone know of one like this?
 
You don't need to worry about line movement in the AFL. The market generally does not gravitate towards efficiency like the NFL or NBA. There are some syndicates that bet at certain times in the week, but that's really the only market based information there is to assist you in any market based capping approach.

Often I wait until very close to the first bounce as many late line moves just create extra+EV by the square public rushing to get down.
 

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brett128 said:
You don't need to worry about line movement in the AFL. The market generally does not gravitate towards efficiency like the NFL or NBA. There are some syndicates that bet at certain times in the week, but that's really the only market based information there is to assist you in any market based capping approach.

Often I wait until very close to the first bounce as many late line moves just create extra+EV by the square public rushing to get down.
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In previous years I've found that taking the early lines is much more profitable as I've been on the market's side. This year, not so much ... lines that I think will move one way are sometimes going the other, but usually just holding. For a while the late (pre first bounce) line move towards Collingwood disappeared too, but it may be back recently. Seen less action on beating large lines for big favourites this season I reckon.
 
In previous years I've found that taking the early lines is much more profitable as I've been on the market's side. This year, not so much ... lines that I think will move one way are sometimes going the other, but usually just holding. For a while the late (pre first bounce) line move towards Collingwood disappeared too, but it may be back recently. Seen less action on beating large lines for big favourites this season I reckon.
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I still reckon the AFL is the softest market I've ever had the luxury of betting into. I wonder how long the years of 57%+ or even 60%+ ATS seasons will last before the market wises up. But as you've seen, there are glimmers of new found efficiency. Where there's liquidity (and the AFL these days does offer decent liquidity), there's eventually gonna be sharp action.

I don't think it's gonna be long before overseas syndicates start to hammer lines to efficiency. Because looking at line moves, I just don't get the feeling that I get watching line moves in CFB, NBA or the NFL. You know something like a sudden half point reverse line move off the '3' in the NFL has gotta be worth at least $250K in syndicate action.

You just don't see (well, infer) anywhere near that weight of money on AFL. I reckon it would only take $20K of sharp action to move the line a point in AFL, but you just don't see that kind of concerted assault on a soft line in AFL like you do in Yank sports.
 
brett128 said:
I don't think it's gonna be long before overseas syndicates start to hammer lines to efficiency. Because looking at line moves, I just don't get the feeling that I get watching line moves in CFB, NBA or the NFL. You know something like a sudden half point reverse line move off the '3' in the NFL has gotta be worth at least $250K in syndicate action.

You just don't see (well, infer) anywhere near that weight of money on AFL. I reckon it would only take $20K of sharp action to move the line a point in AFL, but you just don't see that kind of concerted assault on a soft line in AFL like you do in Yank sports.
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The lack of larger syndicates is likely because the margins aren't sufficient in AFL betting.

The big difference is that US sports significantly dwarf AFL in popularity and betting (i.e. less liquidity).

Add to that, most Australian bookmakers significantly cap larger winning punters.

For example: Here are what are considered large bets at TAB
http://www.onthepunt.com.au/aussierules.php
 
$10,000 on a bet at $1.55 is not really that much considering the bet had say, a 10% edge. You'd only need about a $60K bankroll to correctly allocate $10K to the investment at full kelly.

However, I still think there's enough liquidity to attract syndicate action. Simultaneously getting down at Betfair (and the other betting exchanges), the Aussie corporates, double and triple popping Pinny for their $3800 max bet, and smashing soft lines at TAB outlets in cash should be enough to give syndicates a sniff.
 
brett128 said:
$10,000 on a bet at $1.55 is not really that much considering the bet had say, a 10% edge. You'd only need about a $60K bankroll to correctly allocate $10K to the investment at full kelly.

However, I still think there's enough liquidity to attract syndicate action. Simultaneously getting down at Betfair (and the other betting exchanges), the Aussie corporates, double and triple popping Pinny for their $3800 max bet, and smashing soft lines at TAB outlets in cash should be enough to give syndicates a sniff.
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I guess it is a possibility.

Betfair lines still struggle for liquidity. Betfair generally only has value for backing outsiders straight (and even those at limited amounts). Throw in the commission and its probably just marginally above the corporates.

Most Australian corporates have extremely low thresholds and will limit for even moderate success, so its hard to see how this would work on a long-term basis.

TAB have the worst margins out there, although I have spotted the occasional good line.
http://www.aussportsbetting.com/2012/05/17/2012-bookmaker-margin-survey/

Probably still viable but you'd expect there would be more profitable opportunities elsewhere.
 
Hey cheers for the article, that's good reading. I was looking for a margin comparison.

Yeah Betfair does struggle for action. I like to hit the really soft AFL totals markets on Betfair, but even I find hard to drip feed $2K action in on most games.

Yeah I realize the TAB rounds out to 105%, but I think they would have by far the largest pain threshold of any book. I've often wondered how much I could stuff into one of those machines (and to have it done simultaneously) before the line manager caught on. But then one also has to think of the legal quagmire of the TAB not honouring sharp action. Or being banned from the premises. I spoke to a lawyer friend about this once, and he was adamant it would be with great difficulty that the TAB could stop this happening.

With the corporates, I suppose a bit of betting camouflage might help in lasting longer. Taking obvious -EV bets online for $1K to $2K, and then playing dumb on the phone about how you're got a 'gut feeling' about the game and ask for $20K action. I never tried it though. I'm not big enough to pull that anyway.

does anyone really bet full kelly? seems extraordinarily risky (with obviously the rewards also magnified)
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I have for 12 months. If you know your true win %, fully kelly optimises bank roll growth. You bet full kelly until you saturate the market, and can no longer get any more action down. I personally have drastically overestimated my win % over my first 12 months, and so have seen my bankroll rise and fall 1200% on two occasions. I'm hitting at an average win % of 53.1% ATS over 3000 bets. I estimated my win % at 57+% prior to starting. So I was destined for the roller coaster. I've tightened my models up a bit, and realize my true win % is probably closer to 55% at the moment.
 

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brett128 said:
Yeah Betfair does struggle for action. I like to hit the really soft AFL totals markets on Betfair, but even I find hard to drip feed $2K action in on most games.

Yeah I realize the TAB rounds out to 105%, but I think they would have by far the largest pain threshold of any book. I've often wondered how much I could stuff into one of those machines (and to have it done simultaneously) before the line manager caught on. But then one also has to think of the legal quagmire of the TAB not honouring sharp action. Or being banned from the premises. I spoke to a lawyer friend about this once, and he was adamant it would be with great difficulty that the TAB could stop this happening.
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There is definitely money to be made on totals markets. Unfortunately, there is very little action on AFL exotics in betfair including totals.

Surprisingly, TAB odds for AFL seem to be getting a bit better this year too. I would have thought the sheer number of physical TAB outlets would make it practically impossible for them to exclude punters.
 
your bankroll fell by 1200% twice?

kelly wouldn't be proud of that effort.
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You haven't shown one iota of betting intelligence since I've began this conversation, so I'm going to ignore you from now on.
 
I really like people like you Donkson. You're the bedrock of square money. Sport betting is a zero sum game, someone needs to lose their money in order for someone to gain it. Yeah sure, the books are parasites in the way they target punters, but at the end of the day, they're just clearing houses for the redistribution of capital. Very similar to conventional financial markets.

Just think of me over the years when you just don't understand where you're money went.

I've had enough of this. Bye.
 
How exactly can Kelly Criterion be used? What I mean is how do you actually figure out your probability of winning a bet, especially for AFL games? If your probabilities are way out wouldn't the Kelly Criterion be useless?

Brett, do you use any kind of system when it comes to betting ATS on AFL games? What factors do you use? Resources are so much harder to find for AFL whereas for American sports there are sites like Covers which I find great.
 

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brett128 said:
Yeah Betfair does struggle for action. I like to hit the really soft AFL totals markets on Betfair, but even I find hard to drip feed $2K action in on most games.
.
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There is a guy who always tries to bet exactly $5k on both the game totals and individual team totals on quite a number of games each weekend. It's a bit strange because he very rarely gets matched (probably scares people off). He generally likes to take the unders.

I have a few mildly unusual outs for getting down totals action, so feel free to PM me if you're ever in search of more action.

Off the top of my head, I expect that I will like the overs on the following games this week: Brisbane v St Kilda, Geelong v Collingwood, and unders on: Richmond v Gold Coast, West Coast v Sydney, Melbourne v Fremantle.
 

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