Looking 5 years ahead

[GoDons]

I've been looking through the Essendon list and I decided that I'd take a look at who will have retired and who's going to have to fight for their spot.

Accoording to my calculations, 11 current players will have retired going into 2012 if they have not already been delisted. These players are Mark Johnson, James Hird, Damien Peverill, Jason Johnson, Scott Camporeale, Matthew Lloyd, Mal Michael, Mark Bolton, Scott Lucas, Chris Heffernan and Dustin Fletcher.

This means there will 28 current guys trying for a spot in 2012. In a bit of a mock side they are as follows with their ages in brackets:
B: McVeigh (31) Bradley (26) Welsh (29)
HB: McPhee (29) Ryder (24) Lovett-Murray (29)
C: Dyson (26) Watson (27) Winderlich (27)
HF: Lovett (29) Gumbleton (23) Dempsey (24)
F: Davey (27) Johns (27) Jetta (23)
Foll: Hille (30) Stanton (25) Monfries (25)
Inter: Laycock (27) Neagle (24) Hislop (23) Houli (23) Lee (25) Slattery (26) Nash (26) Lonergan (25) Reimers (23) Cole (28)

23 of Essendon's draftees over the last 5 years are still on Essendon's list. Should the trend continue, this means that 51 players are vying for 40 spots in 2012. This to me means that guys like Cole, Lonergan, Nash, Slattery and Lee are under serious pressure this year and, for a few, next year to move up the pecking order at Essendon. This also means that Reimers is going to have to work very hard. From then on there are guys that are very close to being there but aren't there quite yet, these are guys like Bradley, Laycock, Winderlich and Dyson. There is also a decent possibility of some highly touted players just not going on. Finally, there are a few of those 23 draft picks that might not make it. I think this is a very good indication of just how hard this group of young guys have to work.

Looking at that side, I think it gives good justification for drafting Gumbleton over a midfielder. I think it also shows the lack of Key Defenders at Essendon. On that list the 3 vying for Key Defensive posts are Bradley, Ryder and Lee. I wouldn't be putting my house on any of these to be great key defenders. Over the next few years, I think Essendon must look very closely at drafting a pure full back. Aside from that, there is a good balance of young talent there.

What are your views of which young guys are under pressure?
How well do you think Essendon have approached the draft in recent years judging from that team above?
How do you think Essendon will approach the draft in the future?

 

[angus6]

In terms of key position defenders there is a guy on our rookie list called danny chartres who apparently has not looked too bad in the intra club games this pre season. hopfully we get a good look at him at bendigo this year and may the player we need to step in the next few years when mal and fletch have retired.

 

[The Dustbin]

What about Judd??? Just feeding off the media speculation...

 

[monty1104]

From that side you have posted, I see five guys who wouldnt be in the best 22 this year, (Bradley, Ryder, Jetta, Gumbleton and Dempsey) but push for selection if injuries occur or show good form. This is a good sign for the future, but possibly a bit of a worry for this season. I think we tend to forget guys like Stanton, Dyson and Monfries are only 20-21 this year. We are expecting a lot of them. Our KPP stocks still look thin though. From the guys who are going to be gone by then, we lose our FB, CHB, CHF, FF. We only really have a definite FF to fill those spots (Johns). Were not really sure how Lee, Gumbleton and Ryder can fill those spots. ATM, McPhee could probably go CHB if we needed him, much the way Pavlich did at Freo.

But gees, if we keep that list, out midfielders hopefully will all fire at the same time and we could be unstopable. There are alot of guys entering their prime in that season.

 

[Napier_Street]

In 5 years, apart from the retirees, at least half of the remaining list will have been dumped, sacked, traded etc

That leaves about 14 of the current list who will be around.

These 14 will be

Johns
Monfries
Stanton
Watson
Gumbleton
Ryder
Houli
Jetta
McVeigh
McPhee
Slattery
Laycock
Lovett
Hislop

 

[DaSawx]

It's a bit much to ask to have 24 players on the list from 5 drafts, that's almost 5 a year who would have to be AFL worthy.

Don't know how you can have Houli on the list but not Davey

 

[foj1]

In 5 years time we will have Darcy Daniher on the list most likely.
There are a couple of other possible f/s which I wont name as they are very young and it would be unfair to do so. You could only expect a core of very talented players to definately be there in 5 years. If Judd were to be available we would have to part with Jetta and Gumbleton you would think at the very least to acquire him which screws up any possible list.

 

[GoDons]

In 5 years, apart from the retirees, at least half of the remaining list will have been dumped, sacked, traded etc

That leaves about 14 of the current list who will be around.

These 14 will be

Johns
Monfries
Stanton
Watson
Gumbleton
Ryder
Houli
Jetta
McVeigh
McPhee
Slattery
Laycock
Lovett
Hislop

Is Da Sawx said, 24 is a lot of succesful draftees in 5 years and that number could even be 26 if you take into account that you're allowed 40 on the senior list. As stated in my original post, we have 23 players on our current list that have been drafted in the past 5 years. 23 is a very high amount and it's hard to see the club being so youth-centric considering our large group of current young guys that will be coming into their prime. I'm going to say that at least 18 guys that are at the club now will be there in 5 years time.

 

[hulld]

there is one problem i see with this team.

our whole spine from this year is gone. this means that all of gumby, kepler, paddy, cj and neagle are going to have to develop into very good players for us to be a force.

two or three out of this group will definitely be stars, but it's a big ask for all of them to develop at the same time as they are competing for each other's spots in the team at the moment.

maybe our best chance to win a flag is in 2 or three years. lloydy and lucas will still be there and at least one of fletch and big mal will still be around.

seeing as we have drafted a great batch of kids in the last two years should we have a top up at the end of this year.

dear i say ben cousins anyone???????????

 

[KING-JAMES]

there is one problem i see with this team.

our whole spine from this year is gone. this means that all of gumby, kepler, paddy, cj and neagle are going to have to develop into very good players for us to be a force.

two or three out of this group will definitely be stars, but it's a big ask for all of them to develop at the same time as they are competing for each other's spots in the team at the moment.

maybe our best chance to win a flag is in 2 or three years. lloydy and lucas will still be there and at least one of fletch and big mal will still be around.

seeing as we have drafted a great batch of kids in the last two years should we have a top up at the end of this year.

dear i say ben cousins anyone???????????

I disagree on topping up, you can never have enough young talent. I would be dissapointed if we didnt add to our young brigade with early picks.

With Daniher looking like a F/S prospect, and a highly rated one theres 1 more defender/forward for us. I feel we are one Marc Murphy/ Brock Mclean away from being a real power. Just that leader in the middle to instruct and lead my example all the time ala Hird, Voss, Buckley and harvey. If we can get our hands on a gun midfielder, a good backline prospect and a few best availables, we will be looking like a gun future side.

 

[hulld]

i would have thought the team at the top of thread shows that we have plenty of capable youngsters.

if we finish mid table this year i dont see the point of just drafting a couple of good kids. imo that is where geelong and melbourne have gone wrong in the past 6 months. if the dees or cats had picked up just one decent player in the trade period they would be serious contenders for the flag. but all they did was guarantee another mediocre season.

surely lloydy, scotty, jj and fletch deserve one more chance at winning a flag???

 

[GoDons]

i would have thought the team at the top of thread shows that we have plenty of capable youngsters.

if we finish mid table this year i dont see the point of just drafting a couple of good kids. imo that is where geelong and melbourne have gone wrong in the past 6 months. if the dees or cats had picked up just one decent player in the trade period they would be serious contenders for the flag. but all they did was guarantee another mediocre season.

surely lloydy, scotty, jj and fletch deserve one more chance at winning a flag???

I agree. I think we should target getting one very good midfielder because right now, the backline and the forward line are first class. A star in the midfield could be a massive plus not only in the immediate future but in the long term as they could significantly help our quality young guys out. In saying that, if the draft looks good we should definately go for early picks.

 

[hulld]

we would probably have to give away our first pick when we get judd though.

so i guess we might just have to go without drafting a couple of kids for one year.

oh well.....hopefully judd can cover for them

 

[KING-JAMES]

we would probably have to give away our first pick when we get judd though.

so i guess we might just have to go without drafting a couple of kids for one year.

oh well.....hopefully judd can cover for them

Judd is an exception, imagine him at Essendon. What would u give for him though? we have a lot of W.A boys- Bradley, Ryder, Gumbleton, Jetta and Johns. I probably sound like an idiot but i would really wanna keep Gumbleton, Ryder and Jetta. I feel these 3 are going to be stars.

 

[hulld]

Judd is an exception, imagine him at Essendon. What would u give for him though? we have a lot of W.A boys- Bradley, Ryder, Gumbleton, Jetta and Johns. I probably sound like an idiot but i would really wanna keep Gumbleton, Ryder and Jetta. I feel these 3 are going to be stars.

Agree with you here. We couldn't trade any of those boys. As for the other two...........

 

[Bombs Away]

Would think that Neagle and Daniher would both be holding down key positions in 5 years time, One of Lloyd or Lucas will still be with us. That power midfielder we need might be drafted next year which would mean he has had 4 years in our system by the time this team playing.

 

[hulld]

what pick would daniher be drafted if we weren't getting him father-son???

 

[KING-JAMES]

what pick would daniher be drafted if we weren't getting him father-son???

Its a bit early to say but the general feeling is top 25.

 

[hulld]

did the afl end up introducing the bidding rule in regards to father-sons???

 

[DaSawx]

did the afl end up introducing the bidding rule in regards to father-sons???

nah, it's not official, was being discussed but that's all for now

 

[hulld]

cheers dasawx

 

[Storyboy]

I think that it is looking like the core of a side with a good deal of potential. I imagine that Mark Harvey could do a lot with a side like that ....