MFC Premiership window

[Andy_Mac]

I’ve got an ongoing bet going with a couple of mates about when MFC can win a flag. Back in 2008 at about 3qtr time of the GF I proudly proclaimed the Dee’s premiership window will be open from 2014 (also said Watts would kick more goals than Hawkins in 09).

As time ticks by they grow more confident… However I remain stead fast.

I’ve put together a team sheet with ages (in 2014) of players currently on our list (plus Viney) to try to ascertain if we have a) the potential quality and b) will the bodies be hardened enough to compete with probably an ageing Collingwood and Hawthorn.

B: Strauss (24) Frawley (25) Garland (25)
HB: Grimes (24) Rivers (29) Bail (25)
C: Sylvia (28) McKenzie (24) Gysberts (22)
HF: Howe (23) Watts (23) Petterd (25)
F: Davey (30) Clark (26) Jurrah (25)
R: Jamar (30) Trengove (22) Moloney (30)
Int: Viney (20) Morton (24) Martin (26) Blease (23)

Others: Jones (26), Bennell (23), Gawn (22), Tapscott (22), Cook (22) and McDonald (22).

Thoughts?

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Yeah I think that would be a pretty strong team; McDonald might come in for Rivers... I'm not sure how his body will hold up as he ages.

Davey has a question mark... and I think Jones will be a best 22 player for many more years.

However; I agree that 2014 should see us start to compete for a flag (top four finish).

 

[Andy_Mac]

Whilst im matter fact about our prospects for next year, 2013 shapes I think as a break out year for us.

With Craig and Mission coming on board we will really start to see the impact of a more professional training department in the second pre-season, that and the natural progression of Watts and co.

 

[Trav 20]

No disrespect Andy, but if we're to win a flag in the next 3-4 years than at least a third of that team won't be running out on GF day. It's just the way of natural attrition and how sides evolve. There are players you mention that are quite good footballers, but we'll probably need to unearth better to grab the Holy Grail. That's not to say that some won't contribute throughout a premiership year. Two first round draft picks in next year's super duper draft won't hurt.

I'm also a subscriber to the top 6 theory, as opposed to bottom 6. Plenty would have you believe that depth wins flags where I contend that stars win you flags. We need some of our talented youth to elevate themselves to stars, or at least elite status to win a flag.

We're a definite chance, but it won't be easy.

 

[Devo_]

No disrespect Andy, but if we're to win a flag in the next 3-4 years than at least a third of that team won't be running out on GF day. It's just the way of natural attrition and how sides evolve. There are players you mention that are quite good footballers, but we'll probably need to unearth better to grab the Holy Grail. That's not to say that some won't contribute throughout a premiership year. Two first round draft picks in next year's super duper draft won't hurt.

I'm also a subscriber to the top 6 theory, as opposed to bottom 6. Plenty would have you believe that depth wins flags where I contend that stars win you flags. We need some of our talented youth to elevate themselves to stars, or at least elite status to win a flag.

We're a definite chance, but it won't be easy.

I think it's both star players and depth. Elite players might get a team over the line in the grand final and they are absolutely essential, but you won't get into that grand final in the first place without depth. With the physical demands of the game increasing every year, depth is crucial if you want to have a chance. Sides without depth are found out quickly (e.g. Essendon).

Geelong in 2011 had a galaxy of stars who got over the line in some big games, but their depth was ridiculous. None of their players played every game and deliberately so. Their carefully managed rotation policy kept their stars in good nick for the finals. To make it work and maintain their ladder position, they needed a large pool of quality players outside of the best 22 to step in when needed, play well and help the side to win.

The same applies to Collingwood. I seem to remember Mick stating in a presser this year that he wanted to have at least 30 quality players to pick from every week. Hawthorn's depth may not be quite as good as that, but it is still considerable and they wouldn't have made the prelim if they didn't have the depth to cover for all the injuries they had. It's no accident that these three sides are the best in the comp - they have the star players, but they also have the depth.

While not of the same class as those 3 sides, Freo had half of its list either out with injury or coming back from injury in 2011, but was able to be there or thereabouts for most of the year because they had reasonable depth. I'm amazed that they were competitive for as long as they were in 2011. I think they would've been pressing for the top 4 if they had a full list to choose from.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Trav no offense taken at all. The side was just to start some debate.

I agree that a lot of the names we expect to make it won't, but some others will. I think overwhelming we are in as good a shape as any one, however there is a lot of water.

I disagree with your comments about top 6, I'm a massive subscriber that you need 35 blokes on a list capable of playing senior footy in a variety of positions. Come GF you never know who you'll need to call on. In fact you would be epicly lucky to have your "best 22" available.

I agree that with the departure of Scully we are down on outright star power, but with Viney and the 2 x compo picks we need to look for mids that fill that need. But yes they will be young in 2014!

I think a lot rides on the back of the injury prone Jack Grimes. If he can move to the midfield then he and Trenners have as a long way there.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

You won't get many Premierships won purely by stars IMO.

The Saints had Goddard, Riewoldt, Hayes, Montagna, Fisher and Dal Santo.

Yet Collingwood beat the with depth.

 

[DeeWong6996]

You would think the likes of Jamar, Moloney and Davey are well past their prime by 2014.

In saying that, Gawn replaces Jamar, Tapscott for Moloney and Bennell/Jetta/Wonna for Davey.
I would switch Jones and Morton around and you definately have a premiership challenging side. Interesting to see how well Strauss recovers from that horrific leg break, could effect his quality of disposal.

My prediction:
2012: 9th-10th
2013: 6th-7th
2014: 4th-5th

 

[Devo_]

You won't get many Premierships won purely by stars IMO.

The Saints had Goddard, Riewoldt, Hayes, Montagna, Fisher and Dal Santo.

Yet Collingwood beat the with depth.

I was going to raise this example as well. They have 6 worldbeaters for sure, but St K's second tier lets them down time and again. Let's hope Melbourne is not in this situation in future.

 

[thetank]

You won't get many Premierships won purely by stars IMO.

The Saints had Goddard, Riewoldt, Hayes, Montagna, Fisher and Dal Santo.

Yet Collingwood beat the with depth.

Collingwood also had its elite players (Swan, Pendles, Cloke), as well has a super strong middle band of players (eg. Dale Thomas) who could take it up several gears when the situation dictated.

The 5-6 stars are a given for any contending side, the middle band is what pushes teams over the top (but only if you have the elite players in the first place). We need Watts, Trengove and another 3-4 players to get into the top 50 before we'll have a genuine chance.

 

[Trav 20]

I'm not for one minute suggesting that a side will win a flag with a core of great players if the rest are mediocre. It goes without saying that any premiership outfit needs 26, or so, players that at any given point in time can come in and do a job. But I definitely contend that it's your better players that win a flag. It stands to reason that it's the stars that influence the outcome of games. If you don't have stars you won't be contending. If you don't have stars you won't get to a Grand Final. Stars make average players look better than they are. There will always be the Brent Macaffers of this world. They're relatively easy to find, but it's the stars that get you across the line.

It's one of the reasons that early draft picks are at such a premium. Clubs just aren't hoping for a good player to fill a role, they're hoping they'll land a star.

It's all about stars. It goes without saying that you want depth. But depth without stars is a mediocre side.

 

[Logger]

I'm hoping Neeld has a plan to turn our depth players into stars, our bottom 6 into elites, our middle band into legends of the game and our top 6 into the best players of their position in the history of the game.

I think we might be contenders then.

 

[Demon 86]

^^^

Sounds feasible

 

[MightyHawks]

Salary cap management is also critical if you're going to keep your team of potential superstars together.

I hear that Mitch Clark will be paid more than any Hawk or Cat in 2012

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

That's probably true, I imagine he'd be getting as much of his money front-ended as possible.

Well... I certainly hope he would.

 

[MightyHawks]

That's probably true, I imagine he'd be getting as much of his money front-ended as possible.

Well... I certainly hope he would.

Yeah but does Mitch realise he's getting it front ended? If he's getting 10% of your salary cap in 2012 that's ok, but if he's still getting 10% of it in 2014-5 then there's a problem.

In 2005, Hawthorn were absolutely shocking on the field, but we paid 100% of the salary cap by significant front loading of a few contracts.

We front loaded in 2006, 2007 and believe it or not 2008 as well.

The front loading plus no players accepting below market rate salaries has helped keep our list together.

 

[Demon 86]

Yeah but does Mitch realise he's getting it front ended? If he's getting 10% of your salary cap in 2012 that's ok, but if he's still getting 10% of it in 2014-5 then there's a problem.

In 2005, Hawthorn were absolutely shocking on the field, but we paid 100% of the salary cap by significant front loading of a few contracts.

We front loaded in 2006, 2007 and believe it or not 2008 as well.

The front loading plus no players accepting below market rate salaries has helped keep our list together.

What the hell do u mean 'does Mitch know'? That makes no sense whatsoever.

We've been frontloading all contracts since 2007/8 and will be fine.

 

[MightyHawks]

What the hell do u mean 'does Mitch know'? That makes no sense whatsoever.

We've been frontloading all contracts since 2007/8 and will be fine.

Well I was responding to another comment, if you've been frontloading then that's great as it's key to putting a good list together.

My point on Mitch Clark is, is he expecting to be Melbourne's highest paid player for the next 7 years? Has he signed for 3 years at $800k, expecting to take a pay cut in his second contract? Or is he thinking the following contract will be $1 mil... It's a dangerous scenario to make a new recruit your highest paid player.

I'm simply asking the question, have no inside knowledge on his contract discussions

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Four year contract; and I'm sure it's been made perfectly clear to him what his future will be.

If he comes on as we hope... he may well remain our highest paid player.

 

[Trav 20]

Great, another Mitch Cark thread.