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Coach Michael Voss - Stats, history, articles, videos

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btdg said:
Just to add to this, when it comes to the SYSTEM - moving the ball end to end, defending the field, we are excellent.

Where we struggle is converting ball movement into scores. Ok, so what is the context there?

  • Last year's top goal scorer (Curnow) started the year injured, has played injured, and output is down. In particular, he can't score after quarter time (14 goals in first quarters, 13 goals in the rest for the season).
  • Last year's second top scorer (McKay) has played only half our games, and missed due to mental health (twice) and now a knee injury.

The drop-off from Curnow and McKay, which appears largely due to injury and other issues, has cost us the equivalent of 33 goals for the season. That is THIRTY-THREE less goals just from our key forwards being off.

What about the rest of our forwards from last year?

  • Third on the 2024 goal-kicking (Owies) plays for West Coast now.
  • Fourth on the 2024 goal-kicking (Cripps) has come back to earth after a ridiculous Brownlow year. He's actually almost caught up to last year's pace, but is only human, right?
  • Fifth on the 2024 goal-kicking (Eli Hollands) has gone MIA with personal issues
  • Sixth on the 2024 goal-kicking (Kennedy) has gone to the Bulldogs

Yep, goal-kickers 3,5 and 6 from last year are gone. Hollands and Kennedy have literally no replacements - we just don't have anyone on the list capable of playing that forward/midfield rotating role (we're trying Motlop... it's just no there yet).

Basically, our two best forwards are struggling and below par, and the rest of the forward line has had a complete overhaul. And what do you know - we're struggling to score going inside 50.

Interestingly, we've played a third forward most weeks, and if you look at the replacement goals from Kemp/McGovern/O'Keefe plus Durdin and Motlop (back from injury) they have kicked 36 goals. The 'expected goals' for Owies/Hollands/Kennedy last year was 41 based on their output. So we're papering over their loss reasonably well, despite the injury to Kemp/O'keefe and lack of stabilty there. If we are being fair to Voss... he's done ok tactically (Kemp forward worked, trusting Silvagni in defence has worked, throwing McGovern forward has worked). He's been given a bit of a bum steer with list management but surely you can't complain about that forward output in the cirucmstances?

But roughly 3 goals per game down from the Curnow/McKay drop-off, and a bit of injury luck elsewhere in the forward line? Might not sound like a lot, but just putting them back to last year's output (and god knows the ball has been inside 50 enough for that to be realistic) puts us up roughly 250pts on the season.

That would be enough for us to the be the SECOND HIGHEST scoring team in the competition, and the SECOND HIGHEST most efficient going inside 50.

To put this into perspective, if you just assume Charlie and McKay back to 2025 form, and give us a bit of stability in the forward adjusting to quite a few personnel changes, we are quite conceivably sitting here with:

  • the third best defence in the competition based on points scored
  • a top 4 defence based on ball movement
  • a top 4 midfield for contested possession
  • the best ratings in the league for moving the ball end to end
  • the second highest scoring attack in the league based on points scored
  • By my calculation, quite likely the fourth best % in the league (behind Colllingwood, Adelaide, Bulldogs)

Quite frankly, that's a premiership contender. Despite the lack of depth around the ground. Despite the fact we are bringing in our 7th debutant this week and cobbled together half the list off the rookie list/mid-season draft. Just put a fit and healthy Charlie/Harry inside 50 and let them clunk 3 extra marks per game (yep, from the endless horrid looking floaters we thrown in there) and we leap all the way to having a very sexy statistical profile...

Sometimes, we overthink things, and then lose all sense of perspective. The histrionics from the media this week has been ridiculous. One loss to North and we're sacking the coahc, trading all our players, and blowing up everything in sight.

Nope. So far this year, we've been a well organised, disciplined team, that has covered over its gaps reasonably well, and who has been hobbled by personnel changes in the forward line in the offseason, and injury and form issues for its two biggest weapons. So it goes

Last year, Adelaide had the framework of a bloody good team, but for a bunch of reasons ended up 8-14-1 and in the bottom 4. Half of Adelaide wanted Nicks sacked, and it must have been tempting to pension off Taylor Walker, find a trade partner for Darcy Fogarty or for some of the other older blokes... They kept their nerve, came back this year a year older, wiser, and have jumped all the way to top 4. We need to bear that in mind...
Click to expand...

Really good analysis btdg - well done and thanks :thumbsu:
 
gab213 said:
So, he has dropped dowm lower than what was reported in the Herald-Sun recently? By the end of the season he may drop to 25th.


Voss famously finished behind Craig McRae and Adam Kingsley when the Pies chose their Nathan Buckley replacement.
It is seen as an indication Wright doesn’t rate Voss, but he was in the final four of 92 initial candidates.
Click to expand...
Where Voss finished in an interview process 4 years ago is interesting but probably a moot point.

That was four years ago. Wright has now seen Voss operate as a coach since then and up close in the last 12 months, and plenty of time to assess his strengths and weaknesses.
 
gab213 said:
The players need to be placed under the microscope, this will be the third coach this group has burned if we go down the track of removing him. I think there's more wrong at the club than the coach. The culture of the club has been off for years.
Click to expand...
Oh indeed yes the culture has been off at Carlton since the aftermath of the salary cap breach punishments in 2002 imo.

Richmond went 37 years without a flag, Collingwood 32 and Melbourne went 57 years without success.

Once a losing culture takes hold of a sporting organisation, it can be difficult to turn things around and get the ship back on the right course.
 

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gab213 said:
So, he has dropped dowm lower than what was reported in the Herald-Sun recently? By the end of the season he may drop to 25th.


Voss famously finished behind Craig McRae and Adam Kingsley when the Pies chose their Nathan Buckley replacement.
It is seen as an indication Wright doesn’t rate Voss, but he was in the final four of 92 initial candidates.
Click to expand...
Recent article by Ralphy he was a distant Fourth behind McRae, Kingsley and Yze. Most articles regardless do speculate there was daylight between Voss and the person ahead of him though.
 
btdg said:
Just to add to this, when it comes to the SYSTEM - moving the ball end to end, defending the field, we are excellent.

Where we struggle is converting ball movement into scores. Ok, so what is the context there?

  • Last year's top goal scorer (Curnow) started the year injured, has played injured, and output is down. In particular, he can't score after quarter time (14 goals in first quarters, 13 goals in the rest for the season).
  • Last year's second top scorer (McKay) has played only half our games, and missed due to mental health (twice) and now a knee injury.

The drop-off from Curnow and McKay, which appears largely due to injury and other issues, has cost us the equivalent of 33 goals for the season. That is THIRTY-THREE less goals just from our key forwards being off.

What about the rest of our forwards from last year?

  • Third on the 2024 goal-kicking (Owies) plays for West Coast now.
  • Fourth on the 2024 goal-kicking (Cripps) has come back to earth after a ridiculous Brownlow year. He's actually almost caught up to last year's pace, but is only human, right?
  • Fifth on the 2024 goal-kicking (Eli Hollands) has gone MIA with personal issues
  • Sixth on the 2024 goal-kicking (Kennedy) has gone to the Bulldogs

Yep, goal-kickers 3,5 and 6 from last year are gone. Hollands and Kennedy have literally no replacements - we just don't have anyone on the list capable of playing that forward/midfield rotating role (we're trying Motlop... it's just no there yet).

Basically, our two best forwards are struggling and below par, and the rest of the forward line has had a complete overhaul. And what do you know - we're struggling to score going inside 50.

Interestingly, we've played a third forward most weeks, and if you look at the replacement goals from Kemp/McGovern/O'Keefe plus Durdin and Motlop (back from injury) they have kicked 36 goals. The 'expected goals' for Owies/Hollands/Kennedy last year was 41 based on their output. So we're papering over their loss reasonably well, despite the injury to Kemp/O'keefe and lack of stabilty there. If we are being fair to Voss... he's done ok tactically (Kemp forward worked, trusting Silvagni in defence has worked, throwing McGovern forward has worked). He's been given a bit of a bum steer with list management but surely you can't complain about that forward output in the cirucmstances?

But roughly 3 goals per game down from the Curnow/McKay drop-off, and a bit of injury luck elsewhere in the forward line? Might not sound like a lot, but just putting them back to last year's output (and god knows the ball has been inside 50 enough for that to be realistic) puts us up roughly 250pts on the season.

That would be enough for us to the be the SECOND HIGHEST scoring team in the competition, and the SECOND HIGHEST most efficient going inside 50.

To put this into perspective, if you just assume Charlie and McKay back to 2025 form, and give us a bit of stability in the forward adjusting to quite a few personnel changes, we are quite conceivably sitting here with:

  • the third best defence in the competition based on points scored
  • a top 4 defence based on ball movement
  • a top 4 midfield for contested possession
  • the best ratings in the league for moving the ball end to end
  • the second highest scoring attack in the league based on points scored
  • By my calculation, quite likely the fourth best % in the league (behind Colllingwood, Adelaide, Bulldogs)

Quite frankly, that's a premiership contender. Despite the lack of depth around the ground. Despite the fact we are bringing in our 7th debutant this week and cobbled together half the list off the rookie list/mid-season draft. Just put a fit and healthy Charlie/Harry inside 50 and let them clunk 3 extra marks per game (yep, from the endless horrid looking floaters we thrown in there) and we leap all the way to having a very sexy statistical profile...

Sometimes, we overthink things, and then lose all sense of perspective. The histrionics from the media this week has been ridiculous. One loss to North and we're sacking the coahc, trading all our players, and blowing up everything in sight.

Nope. So far this year, we've been a well organised, disciplined team, that has covered over its gaps reasonably well, and who has been hobbled by personnel changes in the forward line in the offseason, and injury and form issues for its two biggest weapons. So it goes

Last year, Adelaide had the framework of a bloody good team, but for a bunch of reasons ended up 8-14-1 and in the bottom 4. Half of Adelaide wanted Nicks sacked, and it must have been tempting to pension off Taylor Walker, find a trade partner for Darcy Fogarty or for some of the other older blokes... They kept their nerve, came back this year a year older, wiser, and have jumped all the way to top 4. We need to bear that in mind...
Click to expand...
For your reference:

We are currently down 17.14 points scored per match compared to the same stage last year.

But are 8.7 points better per match defensively.

Although we were bottom 4 defensively last year.

Your post raises some really great points
 
JustOneTime said:
That is some remarkable spin btdg. Really impressive.

Then i think about the Richmond game after thinking about the Kangas game. Then i think about the Pies missing more key players than us until just recently while still sitting at the top and winning each week.

Voss has been taking his learnings for 4 years now out of each game. The thing he didnt learn was to rely on more than two forwards. Hence the situation we are in now with one injured. You call the injuries to our key forwards bad luck. Other clubs would call it bad planning.

I also have a sneaky feeling we have a great defensive profile because except for Charlie and Harry the rest are buried in the defensive 50 when it comes time to rebound. Puts us out on our feet by the second half.

I hope you are right for sure i just personally calculate that chance as being slightly less than 0.03 percent.
Click to expand...
Good response.

It’s remarkable tge extent some go to just to avoid being critical of our poor systems.

If we had good systems we would have beaten tiggies…even without a fit and firing Charlie or H.
 
GoBlues! said:
Where Voss finished in an interview process 4 years ago is interesting but probably a moot point.

That was four years ago. Wright has now seen Voss operate as a coach since then and up close in the last 12 months, and plenty of time to assess his strengths and weaknesses.
Click to expand...
Yeap I’d be shocked if he didn’t think he’s poorer than what he first thought by now.
 
I’d be shocked if he survives after this season (if not earlier).

The bigger question is who do we replace him with.

I don’t think Simpson is the one.

Horse would be perfect but does he is motivated enough?

I’m not sure tge next McRae type is around just yet.
 
Blue_Fusion said:
Voss was a distant 4th choice by some reports...

So clearly Wright doesn't rate him.
Click to expand...

Going back and looking at news articles at the time, it seems that Jaymie Graham was told he was out of the running with McRae, Kingsley and Voss still in the running. Voss presented online due to Covid.

On the assumption that Voss came 3rd in that process, and 1st and 2nd are gainfully employed head coaches, does this change anything when considering what Wright might think?
 

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jj1978 said:
Recent article by Ralphy he was a distant Fourth behind McRae, Kingsley and Yze. Most articles regardless do speculate there was daylight between Voss and the person ahead of him though.
Click to expand...
The article I qouted from was Ralph's article, nowhere did he say a 'distant fourth', he said he placed in the top 4.

As you say the rest is all speculation.

None of us actually knows what Wright's opinion of Voss actually is. McCrae always had the inside running for the Collingwood job as he was an assistant there.

If the club decides that Voss isnt the man to coach the team fair enough but I really hope that discussion doesnt take place before the end of the season and certainly not before the heat is turned up on the players.
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
Going back and looking at news articles at the time, it seems that Jaymie Graham was told he was out of the running with McRae, Kingsley and Voss still in the running. Voss presented online due to Covid.

On the assumption that Voss came 3rd in that process, and 1st and 2nd are gainfully employed head coaches, does this change anything when considering what Wright might think?
Click to expand...

Impossible to know what Wright is thinking, just basing it off two things.

1 - The Collingwood coach search
2 - Voss was overlooked so many times by so many clubs... I flagged this as a big concern when he was picked for the job back in 2021

Even Cook said Voss is not tactically sound (or not his strongest point - something along those lines), but his strength was building relationships... well, it looks like those have maybe started to fall apart too...

So it's highly unlikely that Wright rates him now.

I'd prefer if we got some good assistants and a senior advisor who is tactically sound tbh. Surround Voss with better people, he has one season left on his contract, let him see it out and assess after that.

But knowing us, the losses to Richmond and North have sealed his fate, so I'd be very surprised if he survived, there would need to be a 2023 like turn around for him to remain coach next year imo.
 
The Old Dark Navy's said:
Going back and looking at news articles at the time, it seems that Jaymie Graham was told he was out of the running with McRae, Kingsley and Voss still in the running. Voss presented online due to Covid.

On the assumption that Voss came 3rd in that process, and 1st and 2nd are gainfully employed head coaches, does this change anything when considering what Wright might think?
Click to expand...
maybe Wright also has a view on the Carlton list....
 

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Blue_Fusion said:
Impossible to know what Wright is thinking, just basing it off two things.

1 - The Collingwood coach search
2 - Voss was overlooked so many times by so many clubs... I flagged this as a big concern when he was picked for the job back in 2021

Even Cook said Voss is not tactically sound (or not his strongest point - something along those lines), but his strength was building relationships... well, it looks like those have maybe started to fall apart too...

So it's highly unlikely that Wright rates him now.

I'd prefer if we got some good assistants and a senior advisor who is tactically sound tbh. Surround Voss with better people, he has one season left on his contract, let him see it out and assess after that.

But knowing us, the losses to Richmond and North have sealed his fate, so I'd be very surprised if he survived, there would need to be a 2023 like turn around for him to remain coach next year imo.
Click to expand...
if there is a better option available Voss is gone - we are in total new regime change period now.
 
btdg said:
The drop-off from Curnow and McKay, which appears largely due to injury and other issues, has cost us the equivalent of 33 goals for the season. That is THIRTY-THREE less goals just from our key forwards being off.
Click to expand...
Interesting analysis, I'd be interested to see your methodology, the way you worded it makes me think you just subtracted the 2025 output from 2024. However, the numbers are a little off for that. I'm thinking perhaps you modelled their output across the last 3 years to find a benchmark and then just subtracted from that (4.94×14 - 36). This is better, but still not ideal.

I think the largest issue with this analysis is you're not accounting for the replacement players that play those roles when Charlie and Harry are unavailable. Try measuring their output against the league benchmark for fringe players, or if you have the time count the goals we got from our replacement players in the games they missed. That will probably give you a more realistic output.

I'm glad you took the time to do this, because it raises a valid point. However, I think it might be a tad reductive to suggest that we'd be contending if they performed at their 2024 output. There are other factors that might be causing their decrease in output, as opposed to just injury and form. Off the top of my head, it could be poor entries, a drop off in blocking from their teammates, the opposition sagging back. You need to engage with those to determine what the root cause of the decreased output is. I'd love to do a deep dive on all of this and try to come up with an answer, but CD outputs aren't open source, so we have to resort to crude means of analysis.

For what it's worth I'm less optimistic than you. Because I keep coming back to the same conclusion. Every year there's a new glaring hole in our statistical profile, and variance suggests the issues are systemic rather than personnel driven.
 
gab213 said:
The article I qouted from was Ralph's article, nowhere did he say a 'distant fourth', he said he placed in the top 4.

As you say the rest is all speculation.

None of us actually knows what Wright's opinion of Voss actually is. McCrae always had the inside running for the Collingwood job as he was an assistant there.

If the club decides that Voss isnt the man to coach the team fair enough but I really hope that discussion doesnt take place before the end of the season and certainly not before the heat is turned up on the players.
Click to expand...
Sorry was a Scott Gullen article (Hun)


A boring fantasyland: Key errors that caused Carlton’s downfall
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...n/news-story/8639f4d59bddb94474e80c33ad8c77b4

View attachment 2352258
 

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gab213 said:
Fair enough but what we have here is two different accounts of the same event from two different journalists, which to me indicates that its all speculative to some degree. Unless we hear directly from Wright, none of us knows what he thinks.
Click to expand...
The only thing that we can be assured of is that Wright at the Pies did thorough assessment on their final candidates of which Voss was one and knows how he was assessed. If their (Pies) assessment particularly on weaknesses still holds true when monitoring him (Voss) the last 12 months and any of those weaknesses are important and too difficult to rectify don’t think Wright would hesitate to…..
 
Flaggers22 said:
Interesting analysis, I'd be interested to see your methodology, the way you worded it makes me think you just subtracted the 2025 output from 2024. However, the numbers are a little off for that. I'm thinking perhaps you modelled their output across the last 3 years to find a benchmark and then just subtracted from that (4.94×14 - 36). This is better, but still not ideal.

I think the largest issue with this analysis is you're not accounting for the replacement players that play those roles when Charlie and Harry are unavailable. Try measuring their output against the league benchmark for fringe players, or if you have the time count the goals we got from our replacement players in the games they missed. That will probably give you a more realistic output.

I'm glad you took the time to do this, because it raises a valid point. However, I think it might be a tad reductive to suggest that we'd be contending if they performed at their 2024 output. There are other factors that might be causing their decrease in output, as opposed to just injury and form. Off the top of my head, it could be poor entries, a drop off in blocking from their teammates, the opposition sagging back. You need to engage with those to determine what the root cause of the decreased output is. I'd love to do a deep dive on all of this and try to come up with an answer, but CD outputs aren't open source, so we have to resort to crude means of analysis.

For what it's worth I'm less optimistic than you. Because I keep coming back to the same conclusion. Every year there's a new glaring hole in our statistical profile, and variance suggests the issues are systemic rather than personnel driven.
Click to expand...

This is not the most scientific analysis, but sometimes I think we overcomplicate and catastrophise a bit too much.

It is a pretty deep and even league. If you had to note a point of difference for Carlton from all the other teams in the league it would be something like 'they are the only team with two Coleman medallists up forward'. Except this year we haven't. One has missed almost everything, the other can't play more than a quarter. Sure, we have had a spattering of Lewis Young and a couple of weeks of O'Keefe but the drop off is so significant that its barely worth mentioning

At the same time, we are going well statistically in every other area. We defend well. We move the ball quickly and effectively.

We just can't kick goals. And we are missing the best of our two best goalkickers, and the rest of the forward line was cobbled together off the rookie list.

It just isn't rocket science. And in a deep and tough league, it is explanatory. We don't have to panic, sack everyone under the sun, trade all our good players for magic beans.

Just keep things in perspective. We are off the pace in 2025 and have a clear deficiency AND we have at least something in the pipeline to address it, AND a lot more flexibility in the offseason than in recent years...

It's not necessarily optimism - I would actually say realism. I tipped is to drop back to 10th-14th this year and weirdly, we have been better than I expected while dealing with (as above) no forward line. Still no reason to panic
 

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