MLB 2012

[Frozenwaste]

Pretty sure there's no thread on the Major League Baseball for this year yet, so thought I'd get one going.

30/07/2012
Multi - Reds/Nationals @ 2.61 - 1.8 units

 

[jambo12]

Mariners look value at 1.60 to make it a 4-0 home sweep over Royals. Hernandez (9-5, 2.80 ERA) vs Smith (2-3, 6.26)

 

[Frozenwaste]

Mariners look value at 1.60 to make it a 4-0 home sweep over Royals. Hernandez (9-5, 2.80 ERA) vs Smith (2-3, 6.26)

And Hernandez is 3-0, 1.13 ERA in his last four starts.

 

[jambo12]

Works for me, what's you knowledge level / punting history on MLB? I only started following it at the start of the month, figured the incredible amount of games played meant it had to be worth a tickle. Currently on 10 correct out of 12 going against pitchers with negative records and ERAs > 5.00. Just using play money at the moment but any advice appreciated.

 

[Donkson]

any advice appreciated.

1. a pitcher's w/l record is next to worthless.
2. ignore streaks
3. learn about betting totals first

 

[jambo12]

1. a pitcher's w/l record is next to worthless.
2. ignore streaks

Why is the w/l record useless?

 

[Donkson]

because so many things go into a pitcher's w/l record that he has zero control over.

 

[jambo12]

Yeah, it's a weird old sport. Pitcher A pitches 6 innings for 1 run, gets taken off and the relief pitchers get flogged for half a dozen. You had any success betting on it?

 

[Donkson]

Yeah, it's a weird old sport. Pitcher A pitches 6 innings for 1 run, gets taken off and the relief pitchers get flogged for half a dozen.

that's not what a pitcher's w/l is though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Win–loss_record_(pitching)

mlb is comfortably my most profitable sport but it took me a butt load of time and effort before i began.

 

[jambo12]

mlb is comfortably my most profitable sport but it took me a butt load of time and effort before i began.

Well feel free to pitch in (OMG 'pitch in', you see what he did there?, comedy gold)

 

[Primetime Pricey]

got on the Yanks live today when 2-1 down paying $1.90 and then lose in extra innings. Pissed.

Had LA Angels, Arizona into Seattle over 7 on saturday but that game finished on 7 so only got half.

Cincinatti are on fire at the moment. CWS are a good thing tomorrow at Minny

 

[jambo12]

Not a bad first day for the MLB thread: Reds, Nationals and Mariners all saluted, 4.18 for the multi.

 

[Frozenwaste]

Not a bad first day for the MLB thread: Reds, Nationals and Mariners all saluted, 4.18 for the multi.

The Nats game was ridiculous, very lucky.

got on the Yanks live today when 2-1 down paying $1.90 and then lose in extra innings. Pissed.

Had LA Angels, Arizona into Seattle over 7 on saturday but that game finished on 7 so only got half.

Cincinatti are on fire at the moment. CWS are a good thing tomorrow at Minny

Agree with both those. Leake's not in great form but may as well keep riding Cinci while the bats are hot. Chicago and Minnesota met in Chicago barely a week ago, when Chicago swept.

Reds/White Sox @ 2.72 (Sportsbet)

 

[jambo12]

I'm going to add the Giants on the basis that the Mets' Hefner (1-4, 5.40 ERA) is a hack and Bumgarner (11-6, 3.10) will prevail at 1.50.

 

[jambo12]

3/3 yesterday, 0/3 today. Swing batter batter.

 

[Frozenwaste]

Might just do a small write-up of a few games for tomorrow

Like the Braves at home to the Marlins tomorrow. Marlins seem like they may be good fade material for the second half of the season; lost 11 of 17 since the break, including 6 of 7 away. Nolasco is better on the road, but still should get pummeled. The only concern is that Medlen hasn't started since 2010; he's been playing out of the bullpen this year for a 2.48 ERA. Over the past month however, he's played 7 games for an ERA of 0.55. The Braves should win relatively comfortably, to continue their current 6-game streak.

Oakland have won 19 of their past 23 games, and look one of the hottest teams right now. Milone is a beast at home, with a 5-1 record and a 0.91 ERA. They were able to hit Rays ace David Price for 5 hits for 3 runs over 7 innings. Not fantastic, but against Shields (8-7, 4.52 ERA, 4.64 ERA away, 6.75 ERA since the all star break) I'd be far more confident than I was today. The Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 road games, but the A's have lost just once at home since the break, to Texas (they swept the Yankees in 4).

St Louis travel to Colorado for the first of a three game series against the Rockies. Kyle Lohse (10-2, 2.71 ERA) will be starting opposite Jeff Francis (3-2, 4.97 ERA). The Cards and Rockies have faced each other four times this year, with St Louis winning 3. Both teams are on a slide (Cards lost 4/5 last road games, Rockies lost 6 of last 7) so I'm not overly confident, but I'd put my money on St Louis with Lohse pitching.

Washington is home to Philadelphia with Strasburg (2.76 ERA) opposing Lee (3.95). Washington is hot, whereas the Phillies are not. Everybody's waiting for Lee and the whole Philadelphia side to turn it around, but I honestly can't see it happening against a red-hot Nationals team.

Even though they sucked me in yesterday, I like the Reds again tomorrow. They have the best home record in the NL, and with Bailey (3.53 ERA) starting, even though he's better on the road, I can't see him melting down like Leake did today. Despite his W/L record, Volquez is probably the starting pitcher the Padres have, and Marquis (5.25 ERA) should get hit. However without Joey Votto, only Stubbs and Bruce seem to be able to hit consistently. I would lean Reds, but would be cautious. As shown today, one brain-fade inning can cause even a heavily-favoured team to drop behind the 8ball.

The White Sox also let me down today, giving up a very early (top of the first) 4 run lead almost immediately behind a decent pitcher in Quintana. They are still 7-3 against the Twins this year, who will be led by Nick Blackburn (7.99 ERA). Blackburn is just as bad home as he is away, and has been even worse in July (9 ERA). He faced Chicago last week and twice this year, giving up 19 hits, 14 runs in 9.1 IP, only striking out 4. Terrible. On the other hand, Liriano (5.31 ERA) and it's tough to tell just how he'll go. Even though he too has been poor since the all star break, Chicago should have the pitching edge. Minnesota are in good form though, winning their last 4. Chicago have also been okay, winning 5 of 7 road games recently. Leaning the White Sox to bounce back here.

 

[Donkson]

6 favourites?

 

[Frozenwaste]

Hell no dude. Not playing all of them, just giving a bit of a write-up. Even though it's shit, it may help those who don't have time to go and check stats. At the moment I like the Braves and As most. No early games so I'll just post my final bets in the morning. Out of those dogs, my gut says the Twins and the Padres have the biggest chance. No numbers, just a feeling.

 

[Donkson]

oh ok

 

[jambo12]

Sold me on the A's at what looks like a pretty generous 1.88

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Liriano pitching for the White Sox.... Not touching. Will get on the Cards with no confidence. Angels with Weaver pitching paying $1.88.... Always touch

 

[Frozenwaste]

Yeah, sticking with the Braves and the As today

 

[Primetime Pricey]

got on NYY, Detroit and St Louis. Beckett pitching vs Verlander should mean Detroit the better chance.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

after the arse raping im getting from NYY and Detroit i have put $500 on Arizona into SFG.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Frozenwaste who is that chick in your avatar?