Freo2012
Premiership Player
Western society’s sole goal is growth – it is common core belief that you are either growing or you are dying – there is no satisfactory sustainable steady state. Its all about exploiting everything to maximum value while we can, thus all must be done to ensure GDP growth and inflation. This is also the wisdom of most western business operators, large or small the cornerstone opinion is you are either growing or dying. Thus our economic reality and materialism requires us to be always seeking maximum growth and profits now with little thought of the longer term future (rarely looking out beyond 5-10 years). Practiced modern economics (Keynesian utilizing monetary mechanisms) is all about creating growth (and increased tax revenues) from debt and maintain a level of inflation to payback/lessen the future value of that debt. Permanent growth is the utopia.
Unfortunately we live in a finite world – finite in size and resources (physical resources, space to move/expand and human labour/consumers). Not any time soon will we be able to leave the confines of our limited closed environment “the earth” on a basis that enables survival off resources elsewhere.
Many of you will guess this is leading into the area of “limits of growth” – that famous study and largely cried down (purely for self consumption reasons – “greed is good” is still the mantra of western civilization even though we won’t openly express it) presented in 1972 of the usage and limits to the world’s resources, which has had several recent studies showing we are indeed following the forecasts of the “business as usual” model in that study (and with the very dire consequences that shows coming). But this is not only about that original study, it is also about another area not really explored in that study – the area of limits of growth in mature economies competing on the world stage and the financial tribulations when those economies are approaching saturation (their ability to exploit resources).
We live in a competing world – there is not one economy but a large number of competing economies and as the world’s scope for resources (physical and labour/consumer markets) exploitation diminish the extents powers go to at least maintain their relative position in world economics increases. This is obviously inversely related on an exponential basis – as something becomes rarer those that cherish it will go to far greater lengths to attain it. Keynesian economics as applied in our modern world does not work in a finite world – its fundamental premise is continued growth which cannot be sustained with finite resources. Finite resources means not just physical resources but also the human resources of labour force and consumption – consumers ability to spend is what drives economics (and that requires their ability to earn and earn more in an inflationary world – which seems to be forgotten by those exploiting the masses – to their ultimate downfall).
All right – so already you’re saying TL/DR – what is the point?
The point is: Will you be able to recognize when the world economy is at the cliff’s edge, the end game of the FIAT fiasco of modern “we want $ now and forget about the future” economics? How do you recognize an economy at the brink, say a western economy at the extreme of the mature market syndrome? Due to the intertwined nature of our modern globalized economies (in particular the financial systems) recognizing this may be seeing the “tipping point” to the end of the whole charade of FIAT debt money and when a global financial collapse and massive asset bubble burst will come.
My personal view has long been that the basket case that is Europe will result in the “tipping point”. With the nationalism that is spreading throughout the continent creating the tipping point, probably with Germany pulling out of the EU from their requirement to continually prop up failed states (eg Greece and others) and their own economy being exacerbated much further by the $ consequences to them of recent geopolitical events (powerplays of the NWO elite to control and regulate all of the world, in particular eastern Europe) as well as the debt structure and extreme derivative exposure positions of their largest bank.
But is there another economy that could be the tipping point, an economy we have all viewed as a powerhouse, but in my opinion has been living off borrowed time (and borrowed everything else whilst selling that very farm that we so respected them for building in quite quick fashion under our “controlled” western guidance and which has long lost any competitive advantage they once had on the world stage)? I am meaning a fully matured modern economy with little prospects of growth (even with massive extreme debt manipulation) that no longer has the ability to exploit others resources and what they have of their own is in serious decline.
So which economy could that possibly be? The answer should be obvious to most.
JAPAN
The powerhouse of the 70’s and 80’s – lead the world in transforming technology into economic value. Then found themselves in massive bubble squeeze through late 80’s and 90’s – the lost decades – people were living off their economic glory (spending the farm). Japan instigated massive financial changes in government to re-invigorate economy, but in reality just propping up/delaying inevitable decay. Unsustainable mature market syndrome.
Current position – a few simple economic markers to their reality:
- Japan GDP is about $5 trillion USD pa
- Govt debt >$10 trillion
- Debt to GDP >200% (comparison Greece Debt/GDP is about 180% and they are requiring another round of EU bailouts)
- Tax revenue $400 billion pa
- Debt servicing (in current low nearly nil % rate environment) and social security payments = 120% of tax revenues pa
- Govt must borrow 50% of its annual fiscal budget – this is before its continuing sustaining QE to prop up economy to stop it from imploding
- Continual sustaining BOJ QE (bonds and direct stocks) of $800 bill pa to try to maintain economy on year on year basis
- Just announced another additional extensive round of QE of $2.5 trillion above the normal sustaining QE to try to invigorate economy (ie stop deflation and bubble bursts)
- Fast aging population with 22%>65years, overpopulated but now declining population which creates continual shrinking workforce – fewer to pay for increasing older population – common theme in advanced western economies.
All points to mature economy syndrome being continually propped up by debt for very short term gain (stability) but in my opinion all coming home to roost soon in the very worst possible way. According to gravity all things that go up must eventually come down, unless you can break free of that world – is the “rising sun” about to crash and burn first and be the tipping point for the rest of the world?
More Questions: how intertwined is Australia’s economy and banks with Japan? Why are we expanding trade with Japan when they are at the end of their mature economic cycle, extremely precarious and have obviously so massive risks which also transfer onto us through that increased trade? Especially when there are several future powerhouses early on their economic development path and that we could insulate ourselves better by seeking vastly increased ties and trade. Is it the whole West vs East thing? Though in my opinion there is no ultimate insulation from what is coming globally due to the nature of the global financial inter-dependence.
Unfortunately we live in a finite world – finite in size and resources (physical resources, space to move/expand and human labour/consumers). Not any time soon will we be able to leave the confines of our limited closed environment “the earth” on a basis that enables survival off resources elsewhere.
Many of you will guess this is leading into the area of “limits of growth” – that famous study and largely cried down (purely for self consumption reasons – “greed is good” is still the mantra of western civilization even though we won’t openly express it) presented in 1972 of the usage and limits to the world’s resources, which has had several recent studies showing we are indeed following the forecasts of the “business as usual” model in that study (and with the very dire consequences that shows coming). But this is not only about that original study, it is also about another area not really explored in that study – the area of limits of growth in mature economies competing on the world stage and the financial tribulations when those economies are approaching saturation (their ability to exploit resources).
We live in a competing world – there is not one economy but a large number of competing economies and as the world’s scope for resources (physical and labour/consumer markets) exploitation diminish the extents powers go to at least maintain their relative position in world economics increases. This is obviously inversely related on an exponential basis – as something becomes rarer those that cherish it will go to far greater lengths to attain it. Keynesian economics as applied in our modern world does not work in a finite world – its fundamental premise is continued growth which cannot be sustained with finite resources. Finite resources means not just physical resources but also the human resources of labour force and consumption – consumers ability to spend is what drives economics (and that requires their ability to earn and earn more in an inflationary world – which seems to be forgotten by those exploiting the masses – to their ultimate downfall).
All right – so already you’re saying TL/DR – what is the point?
The point is: Will you be able to recognize when the world economy is at the cliff’s edge, the end game of the FIAT fiasco of modern “we want $ now and forget about the future” economics? How do you recognize an economy at the brink, say a western economy at the extreme of the mature market syndrome? Due to the intertwined nature of our modern globalized economies (in particular the financial systems) recognizing this may be seeing the “tipping point” to the end of the whole charade of FIAT debt money and when a global financial collapse and massive asset bubble burst will come.
My personal view has long been that the basket case that is Europe will result in the “tipping point”. With the nationalism that is spreading throughout the continent creating the tipping point, probably with Germany pulling out of the EU from their requirement to continually prop up failed states (eg Greece and others) and their own economy being exacerbated much further by the $ consequences to them of recent geopolitical events (powerplays of the NWO elite to control and regulate all of the world, in particular eastern Europe) as well as the debt structure and extreme derivative exposure positions of their largest bank.
But is there another economy that could be the tipping point, an economy we have all viewed as a powerhouse, but in my opinion has been living off borrowed time (and borrowed everything else whilst selling that very farm that we so respected them for building in quite quick fashion under our “controlled” western guidance and which has long lost any competitive advantage they once had on the world stage)? I am meaning a fully matured modern economy with little prospects of growth (even with massive extreme debt manipulation) that no longer has the ability to exploit others resources and what they have of their own is in serious decline.
So which economy could that possibly be? The answer should be obvious to most.
JAPAN
The powerhouse of the 70’s and 80’s – lead the world in transforming technology into economic value. Then found themselves in massive bubble squeeze through late 80’s and 90’s – the lost decades – people were living off their economic glory (spending the farm). Japan instigated massive financial changes in government to re-invigorate economy, but in reality just propping up/delaying inevitable decay. Unsustainable mature market syndrome.
Current position – a few simple economic markers to their reality:
- Japan GDP is about $5 trillion USD pa
- Govt debt >$10 trillion
- Debt to GDP >200% (comparison Greece Debt/GDP is about 180% and they are requiring another round of EU bailouts)
- Tax revenue $400 billion pa
- Debt servicing (in current low nearly nil % rate environment) and social security payments = 120% of tax revenues pa
- Govt must borrow 50% of its annual fiscal budget – this is before its continuing sustaining QE to prop up economy to stop it from imploding
- Continual sustaining BOJ QE (bonds and direct stocks) of $800 bill pa to try to maintain economy on year on year basis
- Just announced another additional extensive round of QE of $2.5 trillion above the normal sustaining QE to try to invigorate economy (ie stop deflation and bubble bursts)
- Fast aging population with 22%>65years, overpopulated but now declining population which creates continual shrinking workforce – fewer to pay for increasing older population – common theme in advanced western economies.
All points to mature economy syndrome being continually propped up by debt for very short term gain (stability) but in my opinion all coming home to roost soon in the very worst possible way. According to gravity all things that go up must eventually come down, unless you can break free of that world – is the “rising sun” about to crash and burn first and be the tipping point for the rest of the world?
More Questions: how intertwined is Australia’s economy and banks with Japan? Why are we expanding trade with Japan when they are at the end of their mature economic cycle, extremely precarious and have obviously so massive risks which also transfer onto us through that increased trade? Especially when there are several future powerhouses early on their economic development path and that we could insulate ourselves better by seeking vastly increased ties and trade. Is it the whole West vs East thing? Though in my opinion there is no ultimate insulation from what is coming globally due to the nature of the global financial inter-dependence.