Science/Environment Modern Economics = Grow or Die, The Tipping Point?

Freo2012

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Western society’s sole goal is growth – it is common core belief that you are either growing or you are dying – there is no satisfactory sustainable steady state. Its all about exploiting everything to maximum value while we can, thus all must be done to ensure GDP growth and inflation. This is also the wisdom of most western business operators, large or small the cornerstone opinion is you are either growing or dying. Thus our economic reality and materialism requires us to be always seeking maximum growth and profits now with little thought of the longer term future (rarely looking out beyond 5-10 years). Practiced modern economics (Keynesian utilizing monetary mechanisms) is all about creating growth (and increased tax revenues) from debt and maintain a level of inflation to payback/lessen the future value of that debt. Permanent growth is the utopia.

Unfortunately we live in a finite world – finite in size and resources (physical resources, space to move/expand and human labour/consumers). Not any time soon will we be able to leave the confines of our limited closed environment “the earth” on a basis that enables survival off resources elsewhere.

Many of you will guess this is leading into the area of “limits of growth” – that famous study and largely cried down (purely for self consumption reasons – “greed is good” is still the mantra of western civilization even though we won’t openly express it) presented in 1972 of the usage and limits to the world’s resources, which has had several recent studies showing we are indeed following the forecasts of the “business as usual” model in that study (and with the very dire consequences that shows coming). But this is not only about that original study, it is also about another area not really explored in that study – the area of limits of growth in mature economies competing on the world stage and the financial tribulations when those economies are approaching saturation (their ability to exploit resources).

We live in a competing world – there is not one economy but a large number of competing economies and as the world’s scope for resources (physical and labour/consumer markets) exploitation diminish the extents powers go to at least maintain their relative position in world economics increases. This is obviously inversely related on an exponential basis – as something becomes rarer those that cherish it will go to far greater lengths to attain it. Keynesian economics as applied in our modern world does not work in a finite world – its fundamental premise is continued growth which cannot be sustained with finite resources. Finite resources means not just physical resources but also the human resources of labour force and consumption – consumers ability to spend is what drives economics (and that requires their ability to earn and earn more in an inflationary world – which seems to be forgotten by those exploiting the masses – to their ultimate downfall).

All right – so already you’re saying TL/DR – what is the point?

The point is: Will you be able to recognize when the world economy is at the cliff’s edge, the end game of the FIAT fiasco of modern “we want $ now and forget about the future” economics? How do you recognize an economy at the brink, say a western economy at the extreme of the mature market syndrome? Due to the intertwined nature of our modern globalized economies (in particular the financial systems) recognizing this may be seeing the “tipping point” to the end of the whole charade of FIAT debt money and when a global financial collapse and massive asset bubble burst will come.

My personal view has long been that the basket case that is Europe will result in the “tipping point”. With the nationalism that is spreading throughout the continent creating the tipping point, probably with Germany pulling out of the EU from their requirement to continually prop up failed states (eg Greece and others) and their own economy being exacerbated much further by the $ consequences to them of recent geopolitical events (powerplays of the NWO elite to control and regulate all of the world, in particular eastern Europe) as well as the debt structure and extreme derivative exposure positions of their largest bank.

But is there another economy that could be the tipping point, an economy we have all viewed as a powerhouse, but in my opinion has been living off borrowed time (and borrowed everything else whilst selling that very farm that we so respected them for building in quite quick fashion under our “controlled” western guidance and which has long lost any competitive advantage they once had on the world stage)? I am meaning a fully matured modern economy with little prospects of growth (even with massive extreme debt manipulation) that no longer has the ability to exploit others resources and what they have of their own is in serious decline.

So which economy could that possibly be? The answer should be obvious to most.

JAPAN

The powerhouse of the 70’s and 80’s – lead the world in transforming technology into economic value. Then found themselves in massive bubble squeeze through late 80’s and 90’s – the lost decades – people were living off their economic glory (spending the farm). Japan instigated massive financial changes in government to re-invigorate economy, but in reality just propping up/delaying inevitable decay. Unsustainable mature market syndrome.

Current position – a few simple economic markers to their reality:

- Japan GDP is about $5 trillion USD pa
- Govt debt >$10 trillion
- Debt to GDP >200% (comparison Greece Debt/GDP is about 180% and they are requiring another round of EU bailouts)
- Tax revenue $400 billion pa
- Debt servicing (in current low nearly nil % rate environment) and social security payments = 120% of tax revenues pa
- Govt must borrow 50% of its annual fiscal budget – this is before its continuing sustaining QE to prop up economy to stop it from imploding
- Continual sustaining BOJ QE (bonds and direct stocks) of $800 bill pa to try to maintain economy on year on year basis
- Just announced another additional extensive round of QE of $2.5 trillion above the normal sustaining QE to try to invigorate economy (ie stop deflation and bubble bursts)
- Fast aging population with 22%>65years, overpopulated but now declining population which creates continual shrinking workforce – fewer to pay for increasing older population – common theme in advanced western economies.

All points to mature economy syndrome being continually propped up by debt for very short term gain (stability) but in my opinion all coming home to roost soon in the very worst possible way. According to gravity all things that go up must eventually come down, unless you can break free of that world – is the “rising sun” about to crash and burn first and be the tipping point for the rest of the world?


More Questions: how intertwined is Australia’s economy and banks with Japan? Why are we expanding trade with Japan when they are at the end of their mature economic cycle, extremely precarious and have obviously so massive risks which also transfer onto us through that increased trade? Especially when there are several future powerhouses early on their economic development path and that we could insulate ourselves better by seeking vastly increased ties and trade. Is it the whole West vs East thing? Though in my opinion there is no ultimate insulation from what is coming globally due to the nature of the global financial inter-dependence.
 

little graham

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In the 70's, thier cars were renowned as "rust buckets" and "death traps" as a result of the cheap steel they would build them with. It wasn't that they chose to use cheap steel, it was because of how over stretched they were for resources. in the 80's there cars started to be nicknamed "plastic fantastic"

They rely on nations like us now as result of nations like china wanting nothing to do with them. We're doing our bit for capitalism by propping them up.

I commend you on this thread, of speaking up, of asking questions, trying to enlighten folk.
 

Todman

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Unfortunately we live in a finite world – finite in size and resources (physical resources, space to move/expand and human labour/consumers). Not any time soon will we be able to leave the confines of our limited closed environment “the earth” on a basis that enables survival off resources elsewhere.

Mankind has barely scratched that surface when it comes to mining the Earth's riches.
 

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Freo2012

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lol - to be expected I suppose - like going to presentation on a highly involved maths doctorate and the 4yo's at the front are taking up question time arguing about whether 1+1=2

problem is people don't actually read or know how to - they pluck a couple of lines thinking that is the total of whats written without actually reading, interpreting and understanding

Resources are not just mineral resources in the ground - Earth's resources are about all resources, below ground resources, at surface (including living non-animal), atmosphere, surface use and human (and other animal) population - specifically resources are about the interplay between them all. My discussion whilst mentioning limits of growth and those implications were principally about mature economies and their interplay with all resources; and additionally the global economic meltdown which is coming, the hardships of which no-one in Oz has experienced no matter how old they are. Limits of growth and the environment are a very big deal but this thread is about the economic problems we face now and which downsides will be felt very VERY soon - though the underlying causes are the same as the Limits of growth.
 

The Coup

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The underlying cause of both being an economic system that allows people to profit without effort, just ownership because people "agreed" that was fair?

Until we embrace true socialism and eventually communism (which is still the main battle being fought ideologically) worldwide we are going to continue to have these problems because a very small percentage of the world has an active interest in stopping any kind of scientific, moral, intellectual or cultural growth.
 

telsor

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The underlying cause of both being an economic system that allows people to profit without effort, just ownership because people "agreed" that was fair?

Until we embrace true socialism and eventually communism (which is still the main battle being fought ideologically) worldwide we are going to continue to have these problems because a very small percentage of the world has an active interest in stopping any kind of scientific, moral, intellectual or cultural growth.
Yeah, because so much of that happened under communism...
 

Freo2012

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no matter what system humans have tried it is always the exploitative traits of humans that are those systems downfall.

Personally I am very much a believer in free enterprise and capitalism, and the ability to improve one's self and to leave the fruits of that work to one's offspring (up to certain level), but with some very serious controls which are not present in any western system of government, so probably described as a somewhat socialist leaning and control over a free enterprise system.

no matter what system - for it to be ultimately successful long term requires:
- true democracy with correct separation of powers, with political arm, enforcement and judicial systems not controlled by either of the others but by the democratic process
- completely transparent government and judicial systems with no ability or desire to hide truths. Requires significant cultural change throughout society to truly deliver equality to all, not who has the most money or the best connections
- lack of ability of any single individual to attain "emperor" levels of power
- removal of political party system, government should be directed by people successful and respected through normal life, whatever that form may be from social workers to farmers, to scientists to business operators, not having career mouthpieces with little knowledge of the real world and who's only skill is being a mouthpiece. Thus a political system that candidates rise through from local to regional and state level on abilities - note that political governorship careers would be quite short, the second career of those people.
- a cultural belief that once persons have achieved certain wealth they then believe in a responsibility to society, not to further increase wealth and control.
- inability of lobby or interest groups, or political donors to influence government decision making, only the ability to highlight and then it should be the government (obviously including executive government) to do the necessary transparent research and consultation to make their transparent decisions
- acknowledgement and actual practice in the belief that all peoples (within their economic state or not) are to be treated equal and not manipulated for one-sided gain.
Then specific laws and regulations controlling scope of government, preventing interventions and manipulation of markets:
- no artificial manipulations of markets (governments/central banks) - markets must be allowed to go through their full cycles, without favor - this brings efficiency to markets and ensures best allocation of resources
- limitation on size of all companies in all industries (many controls required in this area, particularly prudentially), society and government always promoting competition and innovation.
- Taxation system that offers no incentives to any particular industry, not assisting asset bubbles and truly taxes changes in value as well as profits - a fair across the board tax system that captures all and thus can be at lower rates across the board.
- Regional control of their allocation of federal revenue and taxation funding, reduced federal government role to policy/law and certain specific areas (defence etc). Regional allocations based largely on population % (90%) with smaller % discretionary (10%) based on economic conditions and requirements of different regions.

But I am a realist and realize that due to human nature this environment will never be achieved, though can and should be strived for.

We get the governments we deserve, so we deserve what is coming. I truly believe that VERY difficult times are very close, world defining times.
 
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Freo2012

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Growth is a lie.

Our current economic system is about returns on capital, and about entrenchment of capital and protection of capital.

Its called capitalism. The hint is in the title.
Agree - growth is a lie, as are many other facets and certainly statistics of modern western economies. But inflation is a definite requisite of modern debt fueled economies and steady real growth across the whole economy and enjoyed by all is the only way to prevent collapse because of that debt. Hence it is just a matter of timing before the collapse - the manipulations used (QE and even normal monetary and fiscal policy) always assist and favor "interest groups" (mainly the wealthy and strong lobby groups) - always the wrong areas. The extent of current manipulations and their failure to deliver enough to counter the side effects of those manipulations spell disaster.
 

Long Live HFC

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I don't see why you feel there's an implicit relationship between economic collapse and the supposed "fiat debt fiasco". economies have always collapsed, and not all of them have been fiat.

and NWO elite? really? lol. your chicken little position(s) would be far more compelling without resorting to paranoid conspiracism.
 

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little graham

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We've never seen communism anywhere, but the closest to what I described happened under the Bolsheviks.
We've never seen socialism left in peace. Many countries have chosen to vote in socialism and communism. The americans have been undermining socialism all over this planet for centuries.They have destroyed economies governments and countries to keep socialism down. These debates are going nowhere amongst people who don't recognize that fact.



If you remember they created al queda to assassinate afghan socialists and send Russia broke. If you remember they supplied Saddam Hussein with a list of socialist leaning iraqi politicians for him to assassinate and gaol.These are just two of hundreds of actions to keep capatlism and banks in the money.
 

mottrain

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We've never seen socialism left in peace. Many countries have chosen to vote in socialism and communism. The americans have been undermining socialism all over this planet for centuries.They have destroyed economies governments and countries to keep socialism down. These debates are going nowhere amongst people who don't recognize that fact.



If you remember they created al queda to assassinate afghan socialists and send Russia broke. If you remember they supplied Saddam Hussein with a list of socialist leaning iraqi politicians for him to assassinate and gaol.These are just two of hundreds of actions to keep capatlism and banks in the money.
Socialism doesn't operate well.
 

Seeds

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lol - to be expected I suppose - like going to presentation on a highly involved maths doctorate and the 4yo's at the front are taking up question time arguing about whether 1+1=2

problem is people don't actually read or know how to - they pluck a couple of lines thinking that is the total of whats written without actually reading, interpreting and understanding

Resources are not just mineral resources in the ground - Earth's resources are about all resources, below ground resources, at surface (including living non-animal), atmosphere, surface use and human (and other animal) population - specifically resources are about the interplay between them all. My discussion whilst mentioning limits of growth and those implications were principally about mature economies and their interplay with all resources; and additionally the global economic meltdown which is coming, the hardships of which no-one in Oz has experienced no matter how old they are. Limits of growth and the environment are a very big deal but this thread is about the economic problems we face now and which downsides will be felt very VERY soon - though the underlying causes are the same as the Limits of growth.
You've made a couple of rookie errors and assumed growth and resource use are the same thing thing. likewise you've assumed growth just fuels materialism. One of the key drivers of growth is efficiency in use of resources. Development of technologies that enables us to produce energy without using fossil fuels will generate growth. Likewise growth enables us to take longer holidays and live longer and healthier and have a greater quality of life. If your problem is materialism and resource use then attack that problem and not just blame everything on economic growth.
 

little graham

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One of the key drivers of growth is efficiency in use of resources. .


so 1 out of every 5 Woolworths trucks shouldn't be on the road. That is a 20 percent wastage of energy. I suppose when you offset it against it keeps funeral directors in work from road deaths......its not that bad.

An old Hungarian who fought in ww2 and was stalined at the end of it, rekons under communism, because food was provided free, people were throwing out heaps. So they charged a small fee for meat and such. That ended the wastage. He went onto say that collectively, as communities, you were better off under Communism. But as individuals, the west has so much forbidden fruit for Adam and Eve, you can't help yourself.
 

Todman

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An old Hungarian who fought in ww2 and was stalined at the end of it, rekons under communism, because food was provided free, people were throwing out heaps. So they charged a small fee for meat and such. That ended the wastage. He went onto say that collectively, as communities, you were better off under Communism. But as individuals, the west has so much forbidden fruit for Adam and Eve, you can't help yourself.
Do you accept the recommendation of one old Hungarian communist?
 

Freo2012

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You've made a couple of rookie errors and assumed growth and resource use are the same thing thing. likewise you've assumed growth just fuels materialism. One of the key drivers of growth is efficiency in use of resources. Development of technologies that enables us to produce energy without using fossil fuels will generate growth. Likewise growth enables us to take longer holidays and live longer and healthier and have a greater quality of life. If your problem is materialism and resource use then attack that problem and not just blame everything on economic growth.
LOL - I think you are the one making the rookie mistakes - you obviously don't understand what I wrote, cannot because you don't have the depth of knowledge to know what i am discussing.

Simply NO - you should as I said try to understand what someone writes - To fully explain for the uninformed or to prevent those wanting to undermine a statement by interpreting totally wrong would require about 100x the amount of words I originally wrote (probably far more) - but keep at your trolling - it is either due to naivity and lack of understanding or is it intentional because you don't like what i wrote and thus taking the very juvenile approach?

If you bother to read carefully what I wrote my references to growth in a modern debt driven economic environment requires real growth as you have mentioned - I am not against growth at all, I am for it, but real growth, not manipulated monetary growth that overinflates certain markets to give a false "dashboard" indicator of growth.

I suggest you re-read everything I wrote, because you are a prime example of someone that takes a few words from an overall statement way out of context - is it intentional? or total naivity.

for the record I have a masters in economics (as well as a couple of undergraduate degrees), specialized in international trade and have worked in the resource and finance industry for 3 decades, primarily consulting nowdays in forecasting and feasibilities, and have worked at significant levels in certain resource financial institutions, large and small resource companies - from corporate head offices here in Oz and also overseas (including London) as well as significant on the ground minesite roles and other regional office roles here in Oz, Indonesia and Africa. I keep myself up to speed in economics internationally as a result of my role which requires risk assessment and probability determinants in drivers for the resource industry for specific pricing and demand forecasting, apart from also having a keen interest in markets and economics from a personal investment point of view.
 
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Long Live HFC

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for the record I have a masters in economics (as well as a couple of undergraduate degrees), specialized in international trade and have worked in the resource and finance industry for 3 decades, primarily consulting nowdays in forecasting and feasibilities, and have worked at significant levels in certain resource financial institutions, large and small resource companies - from corporate head offices here in Oz and also overseas (including London) as well as significant on the ground minesite roles and other regional office roles here in Oz, Indonesia and Africa. I keep myself up to speed in economics internationally as a result of my role which requires risk assessment and probability determinants in drivers for the resource industry for specific pricing and demand forecasting, apart from also having a keen interest in markets and economics from a personal investment point of view.
and yet you believe in the NWO and associated conspiracy theories (Georgia guide stones)? :confused: you also previously claimed in another thread that the world's central banks were privately owned and controlled?
 

Freo2012

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and yet you believe in the NWO and associated conspiracy theories (Georgia guide stones)? :confused: you also previously claimed in another thread that the world's central banks were privately owned and controlled?
LOL - there are some conspiracy theories I believe have some weight and some I definitely don't. I believe the Georgia guidestones exist - do you not believe they exist? And thus someone put them there, and their intentions? I used the Georgia guidestones as a joke in a previous post, obviously you do not understand my dry sense of humour - I do not believe that will eventuate by active conspiracy by any "elitists".

You seem to have a problem with the word "conspiracy" as if it only relates to weird out there rediculous thinking - do you know its meaning. Conspiracy means 2 or more people conspiring to bring about a result - everyone conspires every day of their lives, they conspire with their spouse as who picks up the kids and when, politicians conspire when they talk about legislation, people in business conspire when they talk about business. But "conspiracy" to you means extreme BS - says a lot about you, you do not even know that word in the english language.

As for NWO, everyone mentions it including the US presidents - do you not believe there is a push for a NWO? Although the definition of NWO is different for many. You may want to believe that western democracies are totally pure and have no lobbyist control or influence at all - that is your choice. I am a realist and there is more than enough continual evidence (of human nature exploitation) to show that power does corrupt and that there are many real situations where so called "elitists" do manipulate the systems for their own ends. Do you honestly believe that no-one with significant wealth every tries to lobby or exert influence to their benefit?

You are making naive juvenile attempts to try to discredit someone's reasoned thoughts and knowledge using a one-liner "conspiracist" - very intellectual way of dealing with something you don't want to hear - LOL

If you actually bothered to read my posts and attempt to honestly understand them you would realize I am very much a capitalist and believe in free enterprise; but I believe in strong ethical and moral overarching controls to prevent manipulation that favors only a few and ends up with all of the rest of society paying extremely for.
 
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Long Live HFC

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LOL - there are some conspiracy theories I believe have some weight and some I definitely don't. I believe the Georgia guidestones exist - do you not believe they exist? And thus someone put them there, and their intentions? I used the Georgia guidestones as a joke in a previous post, obviously you do not understand my dry sense of humour - I do not believe that will eventuate by active conspiracy by any "elitists".
Well clearly the stones exist ;) but you’ve made references on more than one occasion to population control, so I am merely asking for clarification if that’s ok?
As for NWO, everyone mentions it including the US presidents - do you not believe there is a push for a NWO?
NWO is just a turn of phrase that could really mean anything, but as I’m sure you’re aware the term has a particular meaning in conspiracy circles (hence me again asking for clarification).
You may want to believe that western democracies are totally pure and have no lobbyist control or influence at all
I have no idea where you’ve gotten this nonsense from. I understand where you are coming from a lot better than you do me. you’ll find no posts from me at all that support this assertion.
I am a realist and there is more than enough continual evidence (of human nature exploitation) to show that power does corrupt and that there are many real situations where so called "elitists" do manipulate the systems for their own ends. Do you honestly believe that no-one with significant wealth every tries to lobby or exert influence to their benefit?
Of course I don’t believe that nonsense. but I also don’t believe said “elite” control everything in the universe, or have a plan to institute strict population controls as per the generally-accepted NWO agenda.
You are making naive juvenile attempts to try to discredit someone's reasoned thoughts and knowledge using a one-liner "conspiracist" - very intellectual way of dealing with something you don't want to hear - LOL
Again, I am simply asking for clarification. Normally I wouldn’t even bother, but you do seem to have relevant study and professional experience in these topics so I wanted to know exactly how you are using some of these terms. No need to get your panties in a bunch.

I’ve been listening to chicken little doomsdayers for more than a decade, your particular slant is neither new nor alarming. I have no problems “dealing” with your ilk.
 

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