In 2010 the following side, with the exception of the 2 players marked with a *, won the AFL grand final replay to claim the premiership. To get there they had to play all 3 of the other top 4 sides in the comp no fewer than 3 times each, twice in the home and away season, then each again in the finals, and finally, against the Saints, a fourth time in the grand final replay. There can be absolutely no question, we where the best side that year.
AFL:
Toovey Brown O'Brien
Shaw Reid Maxwell
Jolly Ball Pendles
Thomas Swan Johnson
Beams Cloke Sidebottom
Blair Dawes Didak
Wood*
Wellingham
Goldsack
(Fasalo)*
From that side O'Brien was 23 at the beginning of 2010, so was Trav, so was Toovey, Goldsack, Thomas and Pendlebury where all 22, Dawes, Wellingham and Brown just 21, Reid and Beams just 20, Sidebottom and Blair where still teenagers. That is more than half the side, including our Full Back, our Centre Half Back, our Centre Half Forward and our Full Forward and (at the time) our second best midfielder, our best wingman and much of our midfield depth. These players should all be much fitter, much more physically developed, and much more in their prime this year than in 2010.
If we take the years from 25 to 28 to be the "prime" for AFL footballers then all the player mentioned above are now closer to or in their prime and where not then, while from that Premiership side only Maxwell, Jolly, Didak and Johnson will be in decline, that is 4 declining, 13 improving, 2 gone and 3 (Swan, Ball and Shaw) still in the mid age bracket. Based on that profile, all else being equal, we should clearly be a better side in 2012 than we where in 2010.
The idea that Macaffer and Leroy are that much better than Wood and Fasalo that they erase the gains of having half the side now in their prime is in my eyes ridiculous.
Of course, its not that simple, and every year is a new campaign, with new players, new injuries, new structural problems, and new and improved opposition. Fact is though that our core group, centred around Pendles, Swan, Ball and Thomas in the midfield, Maxwell, Shaw, Reid, O'Brien and Toovey down back and the twin towers of Cloke and Dawes up forward should clearly be better as a bunch of 25 year olds with a couple of veterans rather than as a bunch of 22 year olds supported by a few experienced campaigners.
The other thing I see again and again is that while we still have most of the 2010 side on the park, in that year there where a half a dozen players in the form of Lockyer, O'Bree, Fraser, Anthony, Medhurst and Dick that "kept the pressure on" and provided "depth" and we don't have that now.
The first point to make is that if a side of 22 actually get to a grand final and run out fit and in form, it doesn't make a lick of difference if the "depth" that played throughout the year where 30 year olds on the verge of retirement or 18 year olds in their first year, if you win enough games and you get there fit, depth is irrelevant. The only grounds you could have for concern is if say playing Witts, Mooney, Sinclair, Buckley, Young and so on weakens your side so dramatically that you can't win enough games to get to the big dance. If our core group stays fit, this should not be an issue. The second way "depth" helps, at least potentially, is if you DONT get to the big dance with all your preferred options fit, you can slot in the second fiddles and hopefully not lose too much, here again I would argue that the difference between 2010 and this year is probably exaggerated. Of the "half dozen" Dick was perennially injured. He provided an illusion of depth, but never managed to string any games together, I don't count Medhurst either, his foot never got right and he never got back his full spring, he was never a real option to slot in. Fraser, O'Bree, Lockyer and Anthony where real options, but this year we have Taz instead of Anthony, Witts, Celgar, Keefe and Macnamara instead of Fraser, not exactly an upgrade, but a LOT more options than we had that year. and as for O'Bree and Lockyer we have Clarke, Buckley, Sinclair, Rounds, Young, all of whom have played AFL games, and all of whom MAY improve this year in a way that Tarks et al where never going to.
The 2 players in 2010 who genuinely did provide the kind of depth that won games of footy and gave finals options where Presti and Davis, and I would argue we have clearly got similar options in Tarrant and Clarke on the list today, Clarke clearly not as classy as Davis, but again, we are talking about players 18-25, not our core, so it really shouldn't make a massive difference, if we are RELYING on player 21 being a class above then we need to do more.
But I would also argue that the rest of the VFL side is probably much better placed to throw up a few decent players this year when compared with 2010. in 2010 we had all of the "injured 3" on the list; Rusling, Dick and McCarthy, we had a clearly hobbled Fraser and Medhurst, clearly rapidly declining O'Bree, Lockyer and a bunch of guys who for whatever reason never kicked on; Reed, Cook, Hunter and so on.
2010 VFL:
Reed Presti Rounds*
Blight Anthony Davis
Buckley* Lockyer Hunter
Barham Medhurst Cook
Sinclair* Carter Dick
Fraser O'Bree McCarthy
Wood*
Macnamara*
I am sure the above side would never have actually played together, but for the sake of completeness does anyone know who else we had on our books that year? Stanley I think was delisted the year before…
THe asterixed players above are the only ones still on our list today, and all of them bar Wood where first year players at Collingwood in 2010.
This year we have a group that I consider genuinely promising, in fact more promising than for many years.
Below is the 2012 VFL side assuming the 2010 premiers all play in the ones (something I don't believe will happen of course, but for the sake of argument).
VFL:
Hartley Tarrant Rounds
Buckley Keefe Yagmoor
Celgar Young Clarke
Seedsman Williams Sinclair
Stubbs Gault Mooney
Ugle Paine Smith
Witts
Elliot
Macnamara
Cribben
J.Thomas
Farmer
LTI:
Krakouer
Macaffer
I for one am genuinely excited about Witts, Mooney and Hartley, not excited like I think that they will all win Brownlows, just excited that they could play AFL games, and in Witts case I suspect as soon as this year. Tarrant and Clarke would obviously consider themselves in the wrong company and both will be aiming to play in the ones, Buckley is experienced depth who I thought had some good games in defence last year and who is still relatively young. I also think Young shows promise as a utility and could play a role this year.
Beyond that when you look at that side compared to the 2010 equivalent the main thing that stands out is that it is much, much younger, there simply aren't any players apart from Taz that are the age Fraser, O'Bree, Lockyer, Presti, Davis and Medhurst where that year, and while that may mean that kids are exposed at the pointy end if we have injuries, it also means that we have that much more of a chance to uncover some actual talent in the 2's, rather than having it clogged up with blokes waiting to retire.
I also remember the impact of Tony Francis and Scott Russell in 1990, when many thought they where simply too young to go the distance.
I expect us once again to contest at the pointy end this year, wether or not we win a flag will once again come down to who has the healthier team and plays better on the day, but we should be thereabouts again, injuries to two half-forwards notwithstanding.
AFL:
Toovey Brown O'Brien
Shaw Reid Maxwell
Jolly Ball Pendles
Thomas Swan Johnson
Beams Cloke Sidebottom
Blair Dawes Didak
Wood*
Wellingham
Goldsack
(Fasalo)*
From that side O'Brien was 23 at the beginning of 2010, so was Trav, so was Toovey, Goldsack, Thomas and Pendlebury where all 22, Dawes, Wellingham and Brown just 21, Reid and Beams just 20, Sidebottom and Blair where still teenagers. That is more than half the side, including our Full Back, our Centre Half Back, our Centre Half Forward and our Full Forward and (at the time) our second best midfielder, our best wingman and much of our midfield depth. These players should all be much fitter, much more physically developed, and much more in their prime this year than in 2010.
If we take the years from 25 to 28 to be the "prime" for AFL footballers then all the player mentioned above are now closer to or in their prime and where not then, while from that Premiership side only Maxwell, Jolly, Didak and Johnson will be in decline, that is 4 declining, 13 improving, 2 gone and 3 (Swan, Ball and Shaw) still in the mid age bracket. Based on that profile, all else being equal, we should clearly be a better side in 2012 than we where in 2010.
The idea that Macaffer and Leroy are that much better than Wood and Fasalo that they erase the gains of having half the side now in their prime is in my eyes ridiculous.
Of course, its not that simple, and every year is a new campaign, with new players, new injuries, new structural problems, and new and improved opposition. Fact is though that our core group, centred around Pendles, Swan, Ball and Thomas in the midfield, Maxwell, Shaw, Reid, O'Brien and Toovey down back and the twin towers of Cloke and Dawes up forward should clearly be better as a bunch of 25 year olds with a couple of veterans rather than as a bunch of 22 year olds supported by a few experienced campaigners.
The other thing I see again and again is that while we still have most of the 2010 side on the park, in that year there where a half a dozen players in the form of Lockyer, O'Bree, Fraser, Anthony, Medhurst and Dick that "kept the pressure on" and provided "depth" and we don't have that now.
The first point to make is that if a side of 22 actually get to a grand final and run out fit and in form, it doesn't make a lick of difference if the "depth" that played throughout the year where 30 year olds on the verge of retirement or 18 year olds in their first year, if you win enough games and you get there fit, depth is irrelevant. The only grounds you could have for concern is if say playing Witts, Mooney, Sinclair, Buckley, Young and so on weakens your side so dramatically that you can't win enough games to get to the big dance. If our core group stays fit, this should not be an issue. The second way "depth" helps, at least potentially, is if you DONT get to the big dance with all your preferred options fit, you can slot in the second fiddles and hopefully not lose too much, here again I would argue that the difference between 2010 and this year is probably exaggerated. Of the "half dozen" Dick was perennially injured. He provided an illusion of depth, but never managed to string any games together, I don't count Medhurst either, his foot never got right and he never got back his full spring, he was never a real option to slot in. Fraser, O'Bree, Lockyer and Anthony where real options, but this year we have Taz instead of Anthony, Witts, Celgar, Keefe and Macnamara instead of Fraser, not exactly an upgrade, but a LOT more options than we had that year. and as for O'Bree and Lockyer we have Clarke, Buckley, Sinclair, Rounds, Young, all of whom have played AFL games, and all of whom MAY improve this year in a way that Tarks et al where never going to.
The 2 players in 2010 who genuinely did provide the kind of depth that won games of footy and gave finals options where Presti and Davis, and I would argue we have clearly got similar options in Tarrant and Clarke on the list today, Clarke clearly not as classy as Davis, but again, we are talking about players 18-25, not our core, so it really shouldn't make a massive difference, if we are RELYING on player 21 being a class above then we need to do more.
But I would also argue that the rest of the VFL side is probably much better placed to throw up a few decent players this year when compared with 2010. in 2010 we had all of the "injured 3" on the list; Rusling, Dick and McCarthy, we had a clearly hobbled Fraser and Medhurst, clearly rapidly declining O'Bree, Lockyer and a bunch of guys who for whatever reason never kicked on; Reed, Cook, Hunter and so on.
2010 VFL:
Reed Presti Rounds*
Blight Anthony Davis
Buckley* Lockyer Hunter
Barham Medhurst Cook
Sinclair* Carter Dick
Fraser O'Bree McCarthy
Wood*
Macnamara*
I am sure the above side would never have actually played together, but for the sake of completeness does anyone know who else we had on our books that year? Stanley I think was delisted the year before…
THe asterixed players above are the only ones still on our list today, and all of them bar Wood where first year players at Collingwood in 2010.
This year we have a group that I consider genuinely promising, in fact more promising than for many years.
Below is the 2012 VFL side assuming the 2010 premiers all play in the ones (something I don't believe will happen of course, but for the sake of argument).
VFL:
Hartley Tarrant Rounds
Buckley Keefe Yagmoor
Celgar Young Clarke
Seedsman Williams Sinclair
Stubbs Gault Mooney
Ugle Paine Smith
Witts
Elliot
Macnamara
Cribben
J.Thomas
Farmer
LTI:
Krakouer
Macaffer
I for one am genuinely excited about Witts, Mooney and Hartley, not excited like I think that they will all win Brownlows, just excited that they could play AFL games, and in Witts case I suspect as soon as this year. Tarrant and Clarke would obviously consider themselves in the wrong company and both will be aiming to play in the ones, Buckley is experienced depth who I thought had some good games in defence last year and who is still relatively young. I also think Young shows promise as a utility and could play a role this year.
Beyond that when you look at that side compared to the 2010 equivalent the main thing that stands out is that it is much, much younger, there simply aren't any players apart from Taz that are the age Fraser, O'Bree, Lockyer, Presti, Davis and Medhurst where that year, and while that may mean that kids are exposed at the pointy end if we have injuries, it also means that we have that much more of a chance to uncover some actual talent in the 2's, rather than having it clogged up with blokes waiting to retire.
I also remember the impact of Tony Francis and Scott Russell in 1990, when many thought they where simply too young to go the distance.
I expect us once again to contest at the pointy end this year, wether or not we win a flag will once again come down to who has the healthier team and plays better on the day, but we should be thereabouts again, injuries to two half-forwards notwithstanding.
