Strategy New Rules to help Pies

[Forethought]

With the new 6-6-6 set up , I just looked at the following teams Center clearance results from last year. The reason I believe this is so important is it will be the first time that defences can set up to their advantage . Any team with a great Centre clearance record will be able to go into attack on their terms.
Attacking teams could set up with their 5 forwards high up on the 50 m line with an isolated forward in the goal square , leaving a Pies Paddock .
Imagine the Pies rotation out of the goal square. De Goey ,WHE and Stephenson all with elite speed and great one on one players . Cox later in the Qtr’s without 3 blokes jumping with him.

This new rule is going to create some massive blow outs or big run of goals that simply can’t be stopped.

The following is based on 1 x Ruckman and 6 best midfielders last years centre Clearance Averages.

Pies .
Beams 2.5
Adams 2.4
Sier 1.8
Grundy 1.7
Pendles 1.7
Sidebottom 1.5
Treloar 1.1
Total = 12.7 per game average.

Melbourne .
12.3 ave
Crows .
11.2 ave
Hawks .
11.2 ave
Tigers .
10.9 ave
WCE.
10.7
North
10.5
Swans
10.3
Cats
9.9
Port
9.5
Bombers
9.0
Giants
8.6

Teams with the best centre Clearance rate last year will dramatically increase this year for some as other teams simply won’t be able to create congestion.
Take The Dee’s strategy of running both HFF off the back of the square creating a surge mentality with a dominant Gawn. This gave them great outside run and spread with key first possession players like Oliver, Viney , Brayshaw.

Center bounce spread will not be as important now as allot cleaner less congested midfield ball will be available. Further no opposition can defensively set up to a greater advantage by playing a loose player , This then means the forward structure can dictate the forward setup.This plays really well with Grundy being like an extra Ruck rover.

Sides wanting to put players into defence ASAP can only do this with wingman, who could start at the corner of the square and fall back. This would mean that the high HFF for that defending team would have to start at a sprint from inside his 50m arc taking 3 plus seconds to get to a defendable position on the wing. ( This is where a dominant side will spread if opposition try to defend using the wings )

Look forward to others thoughts on these rule changes. I think the 6-6-6 and the kick in will create the biggest changes to the way the game is played.

 

[neilk]

With the new 6-6-6 set up , I just looked at the following teams Center clearance results from last year. The reason I believe this is so important is it will be the first time that defences can set up to their advantage . Any team with a great Centre clearance record will be able to go into attack on their terms.
Attacking teams could set up with their 5 forwards high up on the 50 m line with an isolated forward in the goal square , leaving a Pies Paddock .
Imagine the Pies rotation out of the goal square. De Goey ,WHE and Stephenson all with elite speed and great one on one players . Cox later in the Qtr’s without 3 blokes jumping with him.

This new rule is going to create some massive blow outs or big run of goals that simply can’t be stopped.

The following is based on 1 x Ruckman and 6 best midfielders last years centre Clearance Averages.

Pies .
Beams 2.5
Adams 2.4
Sier 1.8
Grundy 1.7
Pendles 1.7
Sidebottom 1.5
Treloar 1.1
Total = 12.7 per game average.

Melbourne .
12.3 ave
Crows .
11.2 ave
Hawks .
11.2 ave
Tigers .
10.9 ave
WCE.
10.7
North
10.5
Swans
10.3
Cats
9.9
Port
9.5
Bombers
9.0
Giants
8.6

Teams with the best centre Clearance rate last year will dramatically increase this year for some as other teams simply won’t be able to create congestion.
Take The Dee’s strategy of running both HFF off the back of the square creating a surge mentality with a dominant Gawn. This gave them great outside run and spread with key first possession players like Oliver, Viney , Brayshaw.

Center bounce spread will not be as important now as allot cleaner less congested midfield ball will be available. Further no opposition can defensively set up to a greater advantage by playing a loose player , This then means the forward structure can dictate the forward setup.This plays really well with Grundy being like an extra Ruck rover.

Sides wanting to put players into defence ASAP can only do this with wingman, who could start at the corner of the square and fall back. This would mean that the high HFF for that defending team would have to start at a sprint from inside his 50m arc taking 3 plus seconds to get to a defendable position on the wing. ( This is where a dominant side will spread if opposition try to defend using the wings )

Look forward to others thoughts on these rule changes. I think the 6-6-6 and the kick in will create the biggest changes to the way the game is played.

Very nice piece of analysis and I hope you’re correct. Debutant hey? Great start!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I like your Forethought Forethought

 

[Scodog10]

Love the analysis Forethought our board definitely needs more of this type of posting!

Unfortunately I’m not seeing it myself. There’s circa 30 centre bounces per match, roughly 20-25 of these are won by a team and the other 5-10 are repeat bounces. Of those 20-25 how many are clean entries I50? 10-20% tops. How many are scrubbed I50? Certainly more than the amount of clean entries. Then how many are centre clearances that don’t result in I50’s? I’d say that number is greater still. Lastly what’s the one v one win % of a gun forward? Somewhere in the vicinity of 30% I believe. On the basis of those numbers I’m tipping it results in an extra 1-2 opportunities per match, tops. Perhaps if the rule is adjusted so that the positions are held until the ball is cleared I could buy in, but in its current form it feels a novelty.

The only area I think we’ll see actual change is at the death in close matches. What’s begun to happen in the past few years is teams that uber flood late give away field position, which leads to repeat opportunities and opening the door for the opposition to score. Perhaps having to hold field position with one club going all out offence will open it up for the defending team to score late? I’m not sure, but that’s the only tangible impact I believe we’ll see.

I do hope your right though because it’d be nice for a new rule to benefit us the way banning third man up did!

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

I'm not super familiar with the 6-6-6 rule yet, does the ruckman not count as one of the six in the middle?

 

[frizzle]

I'm not super familiar with the 6-6-6 rule yet, does the ruckman not count as one of the six in the middle?

4 mids including the ruck + the 2 wingers = 6 I think.

 

[Forethought]

Love the analysis Forethought our board definitely needs more of this type of posting!

Unfortunately I’m not seeing it myself. There’s circa 30 centre bounces per match, roughly 20-25 of these are won by a team and the other 5-10 are repeat bounces. Of those 20-25 how many are clean entries I50? 10-20% tops. How many are scrubbed I50? Certainly more than the amount of clean entries. Then how many are centre clearances that don’t result in I50’s? I’d say that number is greater still. Lastly what’s the one v one win % of a gun forward? Somewhere in the vicinity of 30% I believe. On the basis of those numbers I’m tipping it results in an extra 1-2 opportunities per match, tops. Perhaps if the rule is adjusted so that the positions are held until the ball is cleared I could buy in, but in its current form it feels a novelty.

The only area I think we’ll see actual change is at the death in close matches. What’s begun to happen in the past few years is teams that uber flood late give away field position, which leads to repeat opportunities and opening the door for the opposition to score. Perhaps having to hold field position with one club going all out offence will open it up for the defending team to score late? I’m not sure, but that’s the only tangible impact I believe we’ll see.

I do hope your right though because it’d be nice for a new rule to benefit us the way banning third man up did!

 

[Forethought]

Love the analysis Forethought our board definitely needs more of this type of posting!

Unfortunately I’m not seeing it myself. There’s circa 30 centre bounces per match, roughly 20-25 of these are won by a team and the other 5-10 are repeat bounces. Of those 20-25 how many are clean entries I50? 10-20% tops. How many are scrubbed I50? Certainly more than the amount of clean entries. Then how many are centre clearances that don’t result in I50’s? I’d say that number is greater still. Lastly what’s the one v one win % of a gun forward? Somewhere in the vicinity of 30% I believe. On the basis of those numbers I’m tipping it results in an extra 1-2 opportunities per match, tops. Perhaps if the rule is adjusted so that the positions are held until the ball is cleared I could buy in, but in its current form it feels a novelty.

The only area I think we’ll see actual change is at the death in close matches. What’s begun to happen in the past few years is teams that uber flood late give away field position, which leads to repeat opportunities and opening the door for the opposition to score. Perhaps having to hold field position with one club going all out offence will open it up for the defending team to score late? I’m not sure, but that’s the only tangible impact I believe we’ll see.

I do hope your right though because it’d be nice for a new rule to benefit us the way banning third man up did!

Hi Scodog10, I to agree with your thoughts on the Center stoppages. The one thing that I’m sure on is with the time delay in all other players getting into the Center clearance area that this will increase the number of pure clearances , hence driving clean good ball into the forward lines.

 

[Quicky]

Hi Scodog10, I to agree with your thoughts on the Center stoppages. The one thing that I’m sure on is with the time delay in all other players getting into the Center clearance area that this will increase the number of pure clearances , hence driving clean good ball into the forward lines.

I'm interested in how those centre clearance stats change with the new rules. We have actually been pretty poor in that area against the best teams. I always thought we looked good on paper then under performed on game day. We often came out on the receiving end of the centre clearance stats (distinct from the clearance stats which we always kill).

I think you're right to say the extra time provided through set positions will help us because it will be more difficult to implement defensive mechanisms around midfield. There should be more time and space which should suit our pure midfield group and talent.

The other element on our side is the combination of Sidebottom and Phillips off a wing. Two of the smarter and harder running wingers around. I reckon that will advantage us in transition offensively and defensively because their work rate is so high. They will be operating in more space and be able to take advantage of it with their fitness.

 

[Grapie]

Not sure adding Beams as an extra midfielder for Collingwood in 2018 generates a valid analysis.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

Teams that flood without a properly structured forward line will struggle with the new rules when playing someone like West Coast.

Having followed a side that has put an emphasis on contested ball. It's only an advantage if that possession is to advantage of your players up the field. In many cases if your opposition gains possession from that, they're freed up and able to spread.

 

[soreplums]

I think it will bring the smaller forwards into the game more. Quick long kick into the forward 50m from a centre clearance will see the ball hit the ground more often.


Hopefully Coxy cancer to the contest inside 50 and tap it to our smalls advantage.

 

[wicksy]

Not sure adding Beams as an extra midfielder for Collingwood in 2018 generates a valid analysis.

Not sure this post generates a valid analysis.

 

[mike123]

Teams that flood without a properly structured forward line will struggle with the new rules when playing someone like West Coast.

Having followed a side that has put an emphasis on contested ball. It's only an advantage if that possession is to advantage of your players up the field. In many cases if your opposition gains possession from that, they're freed up and able to spread.

I think sides with poorly structured forward lines struggle in general

 

[Darkyprotector]

Hi Scodog10, I to agree with your thoughts on the Center stoppages. The one thing that I’m sure on is with the time delay in all other players getting into the Center clearance area that this will increase the number of pure clearances , hence driving clean good ball into the forward lines.

Great post and you're on the money

Heck of a lot of players converging on the centre square
Guys comming of the wing
Guys off the back of the square
Forwards clearing space

Howe to wing will be a huge benefit both ways
Think seir Jordan pendels and beamsy doing the heavy lifting with lots of outside run
De goey and beams swinging forwards


I like Adams at back pocket

I agree the new rules will suit us to a tee

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

I think sides with poorly structured forward lines struggle in general

Traditional chf and ff will be damaging. Not just for contested marking but also bringing the ball down in favour of traditional crumblng forwards will benifite from these rules.

Traditional wingman also will come back into it.

 

[Scodog10]

Hi Scodog10, I to agree with your thoughts on the Center stoppages. The one thing that I’m sure on is with the time delay in all other players getting into the Center clearance area that this will increase the number of pure clearances , hence driving clean good ball into the forward lines.

I’m curious about what you mean by time delay in players getting into the centre clearance area? My understanding of the rule is that that’s unlikely to change. What is likely to change is a team’s ability to congest the opposition fwd third, but that’s a pretty simple one to work around aside from what clubs were doing in the last minutes of close matches.

Using Collingwood as an example. We play our 6 defenders in the 6-6-6 and Langdon deep off the defensive side of the wing with Phillips/ Sidebottom up on a forward flank. Structure wise the angles change and that’s about it.

FWIW my take on the rule change that’ll be of most benefit to us is the ruckman having greater power to grab the ball out of the ruck. Grundy will dominate with that one!

 

[cleomenes]

I'm interested in how those centre clearance stats change with the new rules. We have actually been pretty poor in that area against the best teams. I always thought we looked good on paper then under performed on game day. We often came out on the receiving end of the centre clearance stats (distinct from the clearance stats which we always kill).

I think you're right to say the extra time provided through set positions will help us because it will be more difficult to implement defensive mechanisms around midfield. There should be more time and space which should suit our pure midfield group and talent.

The other element on our side is the combination of Sidebottom and Phillips off a wing. Two of the smarter and harder running wingers around. I reckon that will advantage us in transition offensively and defensively because their work rate is so high. They will be operating in more space and be able to take advantage of it with their fitness.

The first paragraph matches my perception. One would expect that Beams will help, but there might be something awry in our methods in the centre. ( I don't know what it might be).

There are a lot of changes, not just the devils number, and how the balance will work for us I can't judge. With Grundy's and Cox's frequent use of 2 handed taps you would expect that being able to take the ball in the ruck becoming an option will become a distinct advantage to them, but we don't know yet.

The extra room to kick out would seem to work against us as we don't have a player that kicks like Hurn.

Sidebottom and Phillips already provide a significant advantage, and you can't see it being diluted by the changes. The possible increase in the room to move would seem to be designed for them with their extraordinary endurance.

Our team defence methods, which I don't actually understand, but I accept that they work, may or may not stand up under the new rules. It has looked to me that we have tended towards even numbers in attack and defence of late (I'm not sure about this) so we may be ready for the change..

 

[Forethought]

I’m curious about what you mean by time delay in players getting into the centre clearance area? My understanding of the rule is that that’s unlikely to change. What is likely to change is a team’s ability to congest the opposition fwd third, but that’s a pretty simple one to work around aside from what clubs were doing in the last minutes of close matches.

Using Collingwood as an example. We play our 6 defenders in the 6-6-6 and Langdon deep off the defensive side of the wing with Phillips/ Sidebottom up on a forward flank. Structure wise the angles change and that’s about it.

FWIW my take on the rule change that’ll be of most benefit to us is the ruckman having greater power to grab the ball out of the ruck. Grundy will dominate with that one!

Sorry for my tarty reply time but had a few days off.

The photo shows the starting positions for teams required in 2019.
With the wingers the only players to be able to start on the square this takes away and teams wishing to set up a defensive structure for the Center bounce.

Scodog10 you’ll see that the closest players outside the middle 6 players are now at their respective 50m arcs, this meaning the time to get players into the Center bounce area will take longer hence creating greater space for the midfield.

This new Center bounce set up stops all teams like Melbourne starting their HFF starting in a defensive position and running through in an attacking play running with numbers straight towards their goal.

Re the ruckmans benefit you are correct, Grundy took more balls direct from a Ruck contest than any other ruckman last year. This was a real risk in 2018 because of the prior opportunity having been once the ball had left the umpires hand. Grundy purely did this the best because he is so agile and plays like a midfielder.

With this Ruck set up in 2019 , teams like Richmond playing a Grigg as a second ruckman will really be challenged . The reason for this is 95% of the time opposition teams played to the opposing Ruckman knowing the risk he took if he decided to take the ball. Grigg would just do his best with Oppo players trying to get numbers to the likely clearance area.
Now I feel in that situation, the teams with really poor second ruckman will be forced to bring an out number to those clearances . This then creating a setup advantage to the attacking team.
With a ruckman knowing he can take a ball from the Ruck with it deemed no prior opportunity this then puts all the defensive teams in a different setup. The Ruckman can simply take the ball and the tackle with a re ball up the result. Oppo teams will now have to factor in 100% of the time that the Ruckman won’t necessarily tap the ball.

This rule will change all clearances as you’ll have Nic Nat , Sandilands , Gawn and Grundy really using it to their teams advantage.

 

[Forethought]

Not sure adding Beams as an extra midfielder for Collingwood in 2018 generates a valid analysis.

Beams does as he is our teams best at Center clearances based on 2018 stats
Last year he was roving to Stephan Martin who had 20% less tap outs than Grundy did, further Beams was their teams main clearance player and would have been maned up more playing for the Lions last year than he will with our midfield this year. Sometimes 1 plus 1 = 3 in the benefit.

 

[Forethought]

I'm interested in how those centre clearance stats change with the new rules. We have actually been pretty poor in that area against the best teams. I always thought we looked good on paper then under performed on game day. We often came out on the receiving end of the centre clearance stats (distinct from the clearance stats which we always kill).

I think you're right to say the extra time provided through set positions will help us because it will be more difficult to implement defensive mechanisms around midfield. There should be more time and space which should suit our pure midfield group and talent.

The other element on our side is the combination of Sidebottom and Phillips off a wing. Two of the smarter and harder running wingers around. I reckon that will advantage us in transition offensively and defensively because their work rate is so high. They will be operating in more space and be able to take advantage of it with their fitness.

Hi Quicky, I agree with you based on 2018 stats , however now with Beams at a season average of 2.5 Center clearances, he jumps the Pies up about 4 spots in this area. The simple spread of our top 6 mids excluding De Goey creates such a greater advantage now.

Re the wing set ups, these become even more important now with the extra space. It helps having the best player iQ in Sidebottom on one of our wings added that he and Phillips have such great motors.

 

[Forethought]

The first paragraph matches my perception. One would expect that Beams will help, but there might be something awry in our methods in the centre. ( I don't know what it might be).

There are a lot of changes, not just the devils number, and how the balance will work for us I can't judge. With Grundy's and Cox's frequent use of 2 handed taps you would expect that being able to take the ball in the ruck becoming an option will become a distinct advantage to them, but we don't know yet.

The extra room to kick out would seem to work against us as we don't have a player that kicks like Hurn.

Sidebottom and Phillips already provide a significant advantage, and you can't see it being diluted by the changes. The possible increase in the room to move would seem to be designed for them with their extraordinary endurance.

Our team defence methods, which I don't actually understand, but I accept that they work, may or may not stand up under the new rules. It has looked to me that we have tended towards even numbers in attack and defence of late (I'm not sure about this) so we may be ready for the change..

Hi Cleomenes,

Re kick ins and team defense: I agree we have gone more towards even numbers in defense and Attack. We have used Phillips and Sidebottom’s running strength and transition to help cover the defensive 30m area in general play. By allowing us to have more faith in our defensive setup this has allowed our forward structure to benefit. We got so many more goals this year with our transition and having the swoop team having numbers up forward often outnumbering Oppo teams defense.

Re Kick ins: I’ve notice that at training Darcy Moore has been taking allot of quick kick ins. He runs like Gazelle ( when fit ) and covers the ground better than most players.
I feel that this will be a quick play for us based that Moore will have to be close to the goal line for allot of shots at goal , if he gets a quick ball return having been in the area we will be able to take advantage of the new kick in rule.

Maynard and Dunn are alright for longer kicks as well.

Hurn strategy : I think allot of teams when going into attack will try to keep Hurn high in the forward 50 , this keeping him away from a quick reset being able to use his kicking. If it takes him 3-4 seconds to get back to the kick in area this could nullify his kick ins.

 

[Forethought]

Teams that flood without a properly structured forward line will struggle with the new rules when playing someone like West Coast.

Having followed a side that has put an emphasis on contested ball. It's only an advantage if that possession is to advantage of your players up the field. In many cases if your opposition gains possession from that, they're freed up and able to spread.

Hi Thegibbsgamble,

I to agree with the turning over of a ball from a clearance with a dump kick going straight to an Oppo team and they counter attack.

However in 2019 like never before you’ll have 30 odd centre Clearances that offer less congestion, which should in theory create cleaner ball. No team allowing to set up more defensively than you , so the attacking team even if a dump kick from a Center clearance can’t be out numbered . The good old Rule of play in front works most times.

The one on one forward play from Center bounces will be more for the footy purest .

 

[Vicky Park]

Hi Forethought

Thanks for this thread and your considered responses above. Some interesting holiday reading, and (for me anyway) some insight into how the new rules will work.

 

[Toecrusher]

Re the wing set ups, these become even more important now with the extra space. It helps having the best player iQ in Sidebottom on one of our wings added that he and Phillips have such great motors.

I like the thought of most posts. As much as we'd all like to see the ball go directly into the forward line, I keep thinking these wingers will have around a quarter of the ground for a one on one contest. If the coaches allow that to happen, we'll be seeing some great one on one contested footy.
Centre bounce to a forward of centre winger, who draws out the closest forwards making more space in the arc.